strunkenwhite
Well-known member
I agree with you on the current topic, but is this really the scientific consensus? I had thought a good counter-case was made for incompetence rather than malice.
Russian Invasion of Ukraine 2022
- Thread starter killerofa23
- Start date
Russians were the ones in control of the dam, and Ukraine had only hit the dam in the portions designed for traffic (like armored vehicles) so Russia could not bring forces across it anymore.
Blowing a dam like that from the outside, without a direct hit from a nuke, is very, very difficult to do, and the Russians were bragging about mining the dam months before it blew anyway. They've caught Russian's phoning home and on facetime-type apps talking about being part of the mining operation.
strunkenwhite
Well-known member
You seem to be misapprehending the dissent as an attempt to shift blame away from Russia, whereas in truth grossly negligent mismanagement of the dam to the point that it failed due to same would still make the dam failure entirely Russia's fault.
From Sitrep for Jun. 8-10, 2023 (as of 08:00 a.m.):
Satellite images from May 2023 show water overflowing above the gates, indicating that the water level has exceeded even the surcharge reservoir level (16.6 m for the Kakhovka HPP, while the actual level reached 17.5 m in recent weeks). Furthermore, for eight months, water discharge occurred at one location near the main generator hall of the HPP, causing the dam to deteriorate. The gradual collapse of the road, as observed in the images from Jun. 2 to Jun. 5, which was previously slightly damaged due to shelling, according to an expert, indicates the gradual failure of the dam. The expert also believes that the explosions captured on the videos are too weak to cause significant damage to the dam. Even the explosion conducted by Russian forces in November could have only damaged the gate control mechanisms but not the structure itself.
US officials claim that a satellite equipped with infrared sensors captured an image consistent with a large explosion just before the dam collapsed. However, no specific time is mentioned. If it implies 2:50 a.m. local time (the time of explosion stated by Zelenskyy), it contradicts the reports of local residents about explosions half an hour before that.
Norwegian scientists found seismic shocks emanating from the area of Nova Kakhovka at 2:54 a.m., which they interpret as the aftermath of an explosion. However, this time also does not correspond to reports from local residents and the timestamp on thermal imaging video footage from Russian servicemen, showing that at 2:46 a.m. the dam was already destroyed but the main generator hall was still intact. This begs the question whether these seismic oscillations could have been caused by the destruction of the dam and the fall of a huge mass of water.
The anonymous engineers in The New York Times article claiming that if failure had occurred due to excessively high water levels, then the destruction would have started from the sides (where the dam meets the banks) — we assume they did not see satellite images and did not take into account how water discharge took place over the previous eight months.
Another expert we contacted for comment, a candidate of technical sciences in a relevant specialty, also confirmed that improper operation of the spillway observed on satellite images is an extremely serious problem which could have led to the breach of the Kakhovka dam.
Or if you prefer video, here's a guy who seems to have independently come to the same conclusion:
(7:24 to skip the groundwork)
If I hadn't seen Russians bragging about being part of the crew who mined the dam, months before it blew, I might buy simple negligence.
I however think that the missing road bridge he points out for the scour hypothesis was the same bridge I had seen taken out to prevent armor crossing the dam back when Ukrainian forces were liberating Kherson.
I mean if people can get into inspect what's left of the dam, the difference between a blast crater and a progressively worsening scour situation should be noticable. Scours have very well known characteristics, where as a blast crater will not look nearly the same.
strunkenwhite
Well-known member
Do you recognize that it's possible for Russia to have mined the dam, but also for the dam to have failed for other reasons?
I would also like to point out that the CIT analysis alleges conclusive proof that the dam failed while the generator hall, the most vulnerable part of the dam according to the other guy's video and the best place to put explosives to destroy it, was still intact.
As for the bridge, the video also addresses this. Check out 5:45, 6:06, and 7:45. Short version: you thought wrong.
The bridge was blown on the Ukrainian side (Russians to prevent possible Ukrainian advance) on March 3rd, well before the event. The collapse both of my sources talk about was on the Russian side on June 2, not too long before the dam failed.
I do agree with you that once the area is secure enough to safely investigate, the truth can come out. Structural failure on that scale isn't the sort of thing you can realistically fake. It would be like trying to manufacture a post-avalanche landscape. At the very least, anyone trying to do it would be noticeable in the meantime.
Aaron Fox
Well-known member
This guy gets it... which is surprising.
Also, people forget that 'White' -and thus WASP by proxy- changed over the decades to include much of Western Europe and elements of Eastern Europe (once upon a time, White/WASP only included Britain, Wales, and practically that's it). Same for what is considered 'Protestant'.
Also, Kings and Generals have posted a video on what appears to be the shaping operations of the counteroffensive:
I wonder if one of them had a Ditch Witch to fully play with the WW1 feel of it.
Article on armored vehicles and their effectiveness in the Ukrainian Counteroffensives. The Ukrainians interviewed state that the French supplied AMX-10 RC tanks have good weapons and instruments for observation but (perhaps expectedly) have poor armor unsuited for frontline offensives and later states issues where its armor was penetrated by 152mm artillery shrapnel. Also the month long training was likely insufficient for the Ukrainian tankers to fully take advantage of their new vehicles.
The Marine Officer then stated that American OshKosh and British Husky MRAP's in their experience were more survivable against artillery shrapnel and ambushes as well as obviously against mines and proved far more survivable for the crew and passengers then Soviet/Russian BMP and BMD platforms.
www.euronews.com
Russia has been buying back war material it had previously exported to other countries abroad. This is being done under the guise of the war material being defective and returned to Russia due to warranties.' This includes buying back over 6500 sighting telescopes and 200 cameras meant for installing into tanks from Myanmar and tens of thousands of dollars worth of night vision optics for air to ground missiles from India,
asia.nikkei.com
Explosion at a Russian Airbase in the Krasnodar Region.
First Documented Media of a Romanian M1981 152mm Howitzer in Ukrainian Service. Its a design derived from the Soviet D-20 Howitzer. Undisclosed by Romania like much of their military aid so far.
Big boom implied after a Russian 2A36 Giatsint-B 152mm Towed Howitzer was struck.
Older picture of a Russian tank enclosure utilized last year during the Russian attempts to capture Mykolaiv.
Former British Royal Air Force Tornado Parts Used on Ukrainian MIG's to allow them to deploy British Supplied Storm Shadow Cruise Missiles.
The Marine Officer then stated that American OshKosh and British Husky MRAP's in their experience were more survivable against artillery shrapnel and ambushes as well as obviously against mines and proved far more survivable for the crew and passengers then Soviet/Russian BMP and BMD platforms.
Ukrainian commander says French tanks inadequate for counteroffensive
Ukraine continues to press Western allies for hardware and training assistance as it seeks to take advantage of confusion and low morale on the Russian side.
www.euronews.com
Russia has been buying back war material it had previously exported to other countries abroad. This is being done under the guise of the war material being defective and returned to Russia due to warranties.' This includes buying back over 6500 sighting telescopes and 200 cameras meant for installing into tanks from Myanmar and tens of thousands of dollars worth of night vision optics for air to ground missiles from India,
Russia 'buying back' arms parts exported to Myanmar and India
Reimports appear aimed at improving weapons for use in Ukraine war
asia.nikkei.com
Explosion at a Russian Airbase in the Krasnodar Region.
First Documented Media of a Romanian M1981 152mm Howitzer in Ukrainian Service. Its a design derived from the Soviet D-20 Howitzer. Undisclosed by Romania like much of their military aid so far.
Big boom implied after a Russian 2A36 Giatsint-B 152mm Towed Howitzer was struck.
Older picture of a Russian tank enclosure utilized last year during the Russian attempts to capture Mykolaiv.
Former British Royal Air Force Tornado Parts Used on Ukrainian MIG's to allow them to deploy British Supplied Storm Shadow Cruise Missiles.
strunkenwhite
Well-known member
That's one way to solve the problem of your plane not having the right connection for your missile: bolt on a piece of another plane that does (did) have the right connection.
What ever works
Everybody needs an adapter for their charging cords at some point!
Results of a Shahed Kamikaze Drone Strike on the Northern Ukrainian City of Sumy. Reportedly one government administration building and two apartment buildings were struck in the attack. Video of a strike on one of the residential buildings.
The Artillery and Counter-Battery War Continues. HIMARS/M270 GMLRS rounds strike a Russian 2S7M 203mm Self Propelled Howitzer and three BM-21 Grad MLRS Vehicles.
Caesar 155mm Self Propelled Gun Eliminates a Russian BM-27 Uragan MLRS.
There's been fighting around the environs of Bakhmut, mostly Ukrainian offensive actions.
A short clip showing a dead Russian in a captured trench also in the area.
Alleged 'kill count' of a 'roaming' Patriot Missile Battery which might include the multiple Russian aircraft downed in mid-May.
Twitter Thread on the State of Russian Military Medicine... and It's Certainly Not Improving. While Ukraine's pre-war preparations gave it one of the most hospital beds per capita, with eight hospital beds per one million people, compared with five for the European Union.
In Russia reportedly front line hospitals only provide something resembling more comprehensive care to wounded Russian officers with the rank and file often treated without anesthetics or sustained medication. They are often forced to be treated in converted schools and other buildings instead of purpose built medical facilities. Much of the military medical supplies have to be crowdsourced donations. Also medical facilities currently in use are deteriorating. Some hospitals are apparently using beds imported from the British during World War Two's Lend Lease program.
threadreaderapp.com
The Artillery and Counter-Battery War Continues. HIMARS/M270 GMLRS rounds strike a Russian 2S7M 203mm Self Propelled Howitzer and three BM-21 Grad MLRS Vehicles.
Caesar 155mm Self Propelled Gun Eliminates a Russian BM-27 Uragan MLRS.
There's been fighting around the environs of Bakhmut, mostly Ukrainian offensive actions.
A short clip showing a dead Russian in a captured trench also in the area.
Alleged 'kill count' of a 'roaming' Patriot Missile Battery which might include the multiple Russian aircraft downed in mid-May.
Twitter Thread on the State of Russian Military Medicine... and It's Certainly Not Improving. While Ukraine's pre-war preparations gave it one of the most hospital beds per capita, with eight hospital beds per one million people, compared with five for the European Union.
In Russia reportedly front line hospitals only provide something resembling more comprehensive care to wounded Russian officers with the rank and file often treated without anesthetics or sustained medication. They are often forced to be treated in converted schools and other buildings instead of purpose built medical facilities. Much of the military medical supplies have to be crowdsourced donations. Also medical facilities currently in use are deteriorating. Some hospitals are apparently using beds imported from the British during World War Two's Lend Lease program.
Thread by @ChrisO_wiki on Thread Reader App
@ChrisO_wiki: 1/ Russian front-line hospitals are experiencing acute shortages of personnel and supplies. Only officers are reportedly evacuated to Russia, with ordinary soldiers being treated without anaesthesia or...…
threadreaderapp.com
Recent Drone Strikes Occurred in Moscow reportedly.
IndyFront
Well-known member
Russia is now accusing Ukraine of terrorism. That about tracks.
news.sky.com
Also seems to have disrupted air traffic pretty bigly
www.aljazeera.com
Ukraine war: Three drones intercepted 'heading for Moscow' - Russia accuses Kyiv of 'terrorist attack'
Russia's defence ministry says four out of five drones "heading for Moscow" were shot down, while a fifth was jammed and crashed, causing disruption to the capital's main airports.
news.sky.com
Also seems to have disrupted air traffic pretty bigly
Ukraine war: Major Moscow airport flights disrupted by drone attack
Russia's defence ministry says five Ukrainian drones were shot down in the Moscow region.
www.bbc.com
Drones shot down over Moscow, flights briefly redirected
Russia said that it blew up Ukrainian drones that attacked Moscow and the surrounding region on Tuesday morning.
That's why they've kidnapped so many Ukrainian kids.
They are multi-purpose hostages; piggy-banks to avoid sanctions, population replacement for the next gen, and a way to cut out part of Ukraine's future.
The losses of T-80BV Tanks which have mostly come from storage have surpassed that of the previously highest lost tank, the T-72B3 which was a commonly used tank in the Russian Army at the beginning of the Special Military Operation.
First Documented Loss of a British Supplied AS-90 155mm Self Propelled Howitzer.
Ukrainian Soldier Passing By Previously Abandoned Leopard 2R Mine Breaching Tanks.
Ukrainian M109L Self Propelled Howitzer Covered in Anti-Drone Caging.
A Russian Ammunition Depot Reportedly Destroyed in Russian occupied Makiivka in the Donetsk Oblast.
First Documented Loss of a British Supplied AS-90 155mm Self Propelled Howitzer.
Ukrainian Soldier Passing By Previously Abandoned Leopard 2R Mine Breaching Tanks.
Ukrainian M109L Self Propelled Howitzer Covered in Anti-Drone Caging.
A Russian Ammunition Depot Reportedly Destroyed in Russian occupied Makiivka in the Donetsk Oblast.