Russia-Ukraine War Politics Thread Mk. 2

[LordsFire]

Not just "FUCK YOU" but Pence threatening Americans with death means I have no problem making a correction to his prediction:
U.S. citizens may have to fight their government if their politicians don't shut their fucking holes.

It's funny how when a nation is allowed to absorb its smaller neighbors, it keeps doing so until it is stopped by force.

Human behavior can be pretty predictable sometimes, and it's not like we haven't seen this repeatedly before.

 

[Bacle]

 

[DarthOne]

It's funny how when a nation is allowed to absorb its smaller neighbors, it keeps doing so until it is stopped by force.

Human behavior can be pretty predictable sometimes, and it's not like we haven't seen this repeatedly before.

Cool. Guess what? Not America’s problem. if the other European nations want to help them or individuals or non-government organizations in the USA want to help them, fine and dandy.

 

[LordsFire]

Cool. Guess what? Not America’s problem. if the other European nations want to help them or individuals or non-government organizations in the USA want to help them, fine and dandy.

You think Russia will stop demanding sempai notice her just because this is more Europe's problem than the US's?

Do you think we should've tried to sit out the Cold War too?

Do you think we should signal to China that we'll be hands off if they invade Taiwan?

Or the Philipines?

Or South Korea?

Or Japan?


Dictators and thugs are always testing to see how far they can push before you will put the serious hurt on them to make them stop. The more leeway you give them now, the more it will hurt to stop them later.

Russia would have been much less likely to dare do this, if the US had not telegraphed massive weakness in the catastrophe of the Afghanistan pull-out.

As it is, I'll happily take the relatively cheap cost of stopping Russia with nothing but treasure now, saving us and our allies from needing to spend blood later.

 

[DarthOne]

You think Russia will stop demanding sempai notice her just because this is more Europe's problem than the US's?

Do you think we should've tried to sit out the Cold War too?

Do you think we should signal to China that we'll be hands off if they invade Taiwan?

Or the Philipines?

Or South Korea?

Or Japan?


Dictators and thugs are always testing to see how far they can push before you will put the serious hurt on them to make them stop. The more leeway you give them now, the more it will hurt to stop them later.

Russia would have been much less likely to dare do this, if the US had not telegraphed massive weakness in the catastrophe of the Afghanistan pull-out.

As it is, I'll happily take the relatively cheap cost of stopping Russia with nothing but treasure now, saving us and our allies from needing to spend blood later.

Oh Lord, here we go with the Cold War containment doctrine.

Also, Russia being able to take over Europe? Russia, the same nation that has had trouble with Ukraine, even before NATO started pouring in millions in money and aid to help them.

Sorry, but this isn’t the Cold War. Or CoD Modern Warfare # whatever.

Also, do you forget that Europeans have nukes too if it comes down to that?

 

[Bacle]

Oh Lord, here we go with the Cold War containment doctrine.

Also, Russia being able to take over Europe? Russia, the same nation that has had trouble with Ukraine, even before NATO started pouring in millions in money and aid to help them.

Sorry, but this isn’t the Cold War. Or CoD Modern Warfare # whatever.

Also, do you forget that Europeans have nukes too if it comes down to that?

Who in Eastern Europe has their own nukes and is in NATO?

Because the only other NATO powers with their own weapons is France; the UK rents ICBMs from the US, doesn't make their own.

 

[Largo]

Containment is just a fancy word for balance of power, aka. the foreign policy idea that has been around for hundreds if not thousands of years. It's nothing all that crazy.

Britain fought the Nazis, the Bourbons,, the Kaiser, and Napoleon because Britain understood that a united Europe would be able to overwhelm Britain. It's more and less the same thing for the United States. The Americas simply cannot stand up to a united Eurasia. So it is in our interest to weaken enemy Eurasian powers where we can.

For as much as people want to throw out the Vietnam and Iraq examples, this is quite different, especially since we have very clearly defined goals instead of "building democracy" or some nonsense

 

[mrttao]

Who in Eastern Europe has their own nukes and is in NATO?

Read bacle, read.
He said "Europe" not "Eastern Europe".

 

[Bacle]

Read bacle, read.
He said "Europe" not "Eastern Europe".

Yes, I saw what he said, and I do not think Russia intends to march all the way to France, even at their most optimistic; the Russians want to plug the geographical gaps north and south of the Carpathians while they have the bodies to do so, not march to the Channel.

These days Russia more want France to sell it shit again, not try to claim Paris.

And frankly I'm not sure France will actually honor Article 5 if invoked, with how fucking dumb Macron has been at time. SO not sure French nukes are in play even if Russian tanks are on the outskirts of Warsaw. I'm not sure the US under either side would honor Article 5 either, with the current state of things; Biden is likley compromised by both Xi and Putin (via the old Burisma/Hunter shit) and I have doubts about all the GOP contenders willingness to honor Article 5 if it came from Romania or Poland or anyone really, except Judas Pence.

And unfortunately, Poland does not yet have a domestic nuclear weapons program to counter Russia with on it's own. Same deal for Romania.

The real wild card is Erdogan really; if he honors Article 5 if invoked, I think most of the rest of the alliance will as well. Ankara has about as much pull as DC does these days.

Who knew a neo-Ottoman Empire might be a new superpower of the 21st century.

 

[Skallagrim]

Who knew a neo-Ottoman Empire might be a new superpower of the 21st century.

I did.

Well, not "superpower", and I still don't think that's in the cards, but I've been saying that a "neo-Ottoman" expansion strategy is the Turkish long-term goal (and also likely to transpire) for over a decade now.

Unfortunately, I also have every reason to believe that the Turkish loyalty to NATO exists only insofar and for as long as it benefits them. They have zero actual warm feelings towards any of us, and once Russia is effectively out of the picture, that just gives the Turks more of a free hand to make their own play(s). Which China, more likely than not, will be happy to support in exchange for Turkey switching allegiances in due time.

No doubt, a few decades from now, we'll see all the current debates from this thread again. There will be people saying that "Turkey just wants its historic lands on the Balkans back, none of our concern!" And there will be people pointing out that it's better to beat the Turk back before he reaches the gates of Vienna.



(Although, hilariously, one of the most anti-inteventionist people here now is Bulgarian, and might very well be yelling for NATO intervention then. Whereas one of the loudest pro-NATO voices here now is always suspiciously eager to defend every Turkish action in every discussion, and might well be making excuses for Ankara then. I'd find such a reversal very funny.)

 

[mrttao]

Yes, I saw what he said, and I do not think Russia intends to march all the way to France, even at their most optimistic; the Russians want to plug the geographical gaps north and south of the Carpathians while they have the bodies to do so, not march to the Channel.

If russia does not wish to march all the way up to france then they are a non issue for the USA.

Lordsfire was positing that if the USA does not step up and stop russia now, then russia will conquer ukraine, then conquer europe, then conquer the usa with the whole might of europe. Then the entire world.

Darthone was saying that russia will not even attempt to do so, and even if it did attempt to do that it will fail at the conquer europe step due to europe having nukes.

You have stepped in to disagree with darthone... yet you are clearly agreeing with him that russia is not even going to try to conquer all of europe, much less america.

 

[AmosTrask]

I did.

Well, not "superpower", and I still don't think that's in the cards, but I've been saying that a "neo-Ottoman" expansion strategy is the Turkish long-term goal (and also likely to transpire) for over a decade now.

Unfortunately, I also have every reason to believe that the Turkish loyalty to NATO exists only insofar and for as long as it benefits them. They have zero actual warm feelings towards any of us, and once Russia is effectively out of the picture, that just gives the Turks more of a free hand to make their own play(s). Which China, more likely than not, will be happy to support in exchange for Turkey switching allegiances in due time.

No doubt, a few decades from now, we'll see all the current debates from this thread again. There will be people saying that "Turkey just wants its historic lands on the Balkans back, none of our concern!" And there will be people pointing out that it's better to beat the Turk back before he reaches the gates of Vienna.



(Although, hilariously, one of the most anti-inteventionist people here now is Bulgarian, and might very well be yelling for NATO intervention then. Whereas one of the loudest pro-NATO voices here now is always suspiciously eager to defend every Turkish action in every discussion, and might well be making excuses for Ankara then. I'd find such a reversal very funny.)

Yeah. Although technically Turkish historic lands are in Xinjiang. Or the lands that was once known as Parthia who were the first conquest during their migration.

 

[LordsFire]

Also, Russia being able to take over Europe? Russia, the same nation that has had trouble with Ukraine, even before NATO started pouring in millions in money and aid to help them.

Lordsfire was positing that if the USA does not step up and stop russia now, then russia will conquer ukraine, then conquer europe, then conquer the usa with the whole might of europe. Then the entire world.

No, this is overstating things.

If Russia had managed to conquer Ukraine, or some how still manages to pull a victory out of this fiasco, and the US withdrawing support is part of that, I'm not worried about them conquering Europe.

I am worried that after 5-10 years of rebuilding their military again, they'll make a try for one of the 'minor' NATO nations, probably one of the Baltics, and then the US will be bound by treaty to shed its own blood to stop them.

We'd crush them, of course, but unless the woke corruption of the military is turned around, it'll be a lot costlier than it should be, and a direct NATO vs Russia confrontation is much more likely to go nuclear than this medium-sized war in Ukraine.

Right now, we can stop them at the cost of old military equipment and money. I'll take that option.

 

[mrttao]

No, this is overstating things.

If Russia had managed to conquer Ukraine, or some how still manages to pull a victory out of this fiasco, and the US withdrawing support is part of that, I'm not worried about them conquering Europe.

I am worried that after 5-10 years of rebuilding their military again, they'll make a try for one of the 'minor' NATO nations, probably one of the Baltics, and then the US will be bound by treaty to shed its own blood to stop them.

We'd crush them, of course, but unless the woke corruption of the military is turned around, it'll be a lot costlier than it should be, and a direct NATO vs Russia confrontation is much more likely to go nuclear than this medium-sized war in Ukraine.

Right now, we can stop them at the cost of old military equipment and money. I'll take that option.

Not an impossible scenario, but you are forgetting that Putin is 71 years old.
By the time the 10 year of rebuilding is over he will be dead of old age and Russia will balkanize (again)

Also, an anti russian alliance between european countries would mean they would rearm and prepare in those 10 years as well.
Honestly USA should just drop NATO already, bunch of parasites who refuse to fund their own military and want us to do it for them.

 

[King Arts]

Containment is just a fancy word for balance of power, aka. the foreign policy idea that has been around for hundreds if not thousands of years. It's nothing all that crazy.

Britain fought the Nazis, the Bourbons,, the Kaiser, and Napoleon because Britain understood that a united Europe would be able to overwhelm Britain. It's more and less the same thing for the United States. The Americas simply cannot stand up to a united Eurasia. So it is in our interest to weaken enemy Eurasian powers where we can.

For as much as people want to throw out the Vietnam and Iraq examples, this is quite different, especially since we have very clearly defined goals instead of "building democracy" or some nonsense

This would be a good idea except that Britain allied with the weaker power against the stronger. The EU unlike the Russians have technology AND economic power a United Europe has more ability to challenge US dominance than a reborn Russian empire.

 

[Cherico]

I did.

Well, not "superpower", and I still don't think that's in the cards, but I've been saying that a "neo-Ottoman" expansion strategy is the Turkish long-term goal (and also likely to transpire) for over a decade now.

Unfortunately, I also have every reason to believe that the Turkish loyalty to NATO exists only insofar and for as long as it benefits them. They have zero actual warm feelings towards any of us, and once Russia is effectively out of the picture, that just gives the Turks more of a free hand to make their own play(s). Which China, more likely than not, will be happy to support in exchange for Turkey switching allegiances in due time.

No doubt, a few decades from now, we'll see all the current debates from this thread again. There will be people saying that "Turkey just wants its historic lands on the Balkans back, none of our concern!" And there will be people pointing out that it's better to beat the Turk back before he reaches the gates of Vienna.



(Although, hilariously, one of the most anti-inteventionist people here now is Bulgarian, and might very well be yelling for NATO intervention then. Whereas one of the loudest pro-NATO voices here now is always suspiciously eager to defend every Turkish action in every discussion, and might well be making excuses for Ankara then. I'd find such a reversal very funny.)

I honestly think the turks rising and fighting europe would be the last thing europe could handle it would shatter the lie and myth that europes elites and progressive coalition belives about itself. After that I think the european ego would collapse. Too many people belive that europes escaped history and that delusion being shattered would be it for them.

 

[Blasterbot]

I honestly think the turks rising and fighting europe would be the last thing europe could handle it would shatter the lie and myth that europes elites and progressive coalition belives about itself. After that I think the european ego would collapse. Too many people belive that europes escaped history and that delusion being shattered would be it for them.

If Russian invasion of Ukraine hasn't done it after a year? If the migrant crises hasn't done it? I don't think a consolidated Muslim state would do it for them until it is knocking on the doors of the Europa building.

 

[Cherico]

If Russian invasion of Ukraine hasn't done it after a year? If the migrant crises hasn't done it? I don't think a consolidated Muslim state would do it for them until it is knocking on the doors of the Europa building.

No in order to break that delusion you have to hit what europe firmly considers to be a part of it self you have to bring war back to europe you have to have war crimes done to europeans you have to have every delusion they have shattered by aggression. Such things would not have broken a europe before the world wars but the current delusional european elite...that would break them.

 

[LordsFire]

Not an impossible scenario, but you are forgetting that Putin is 71 years old.
By the time the 10 year of rebuilding is over he will be dead of old age and Russia will balkanize (again)

I'm pretty sure you aren't some sort of expert on Russian politics to know for certain what will happen when Putin dies.

I doubt actual Russian experts know for sure what will happen when Putin dies.

Russia balkanizing would be kind of nice for the rest of the world, most likely, but we can hardly treat it as a foregone conclusion.

 

[Cherico]

I'm pretty sure you aren't some sort of expert on Russian politics to know for certain what will happen when Putin dies.

I doubt actual Russian experts know for sure what will happen when Putin dies.

Russia balkanizing would be kind of nice for the rest of the world, most likely, but we can hardly treat it as a foregone conclusion.

I think a new warlord era is pretty likely.