Russia-Ukraine War Politics Thread Mk. 2

[Emperor Tippy]

This thread exists to discuss the political side of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. If you want to talk about the more directly military aspects then you want this thread.

Because people are being people (i.e. annoying cunts whose actions require me to do things and thus piss me off), this thread is under enhanced civility rules. While normally we don't much care about you all insulting one another or questioning the intelligence of people who post really fucking stupid posts, people in the previous thread have a history of going well beyond the acceptable and not accepting repeated instructions to knock it off.

Because of his active, consistent, and sustained investment in these threads, @Marduk doesn't get to moderate the Russia-Ukraine threads. Any of the other staff are fully authorized to hit anything that they, personally, see as uncivil with the presumption that it WILL be upheld in any theoretical appeal unless the hit is plainly unreasonable. The first hit is either a friendly warning to knock it off or a one day thread ban (at the mods discretion). The second hit is a three day thread ban. The third hit is a one month thread ban. If you manage to go beyond three hits then you are getting a long vacation in the hopes that you can find brains and/or self control somewhere where the rest of us don't have to notice your existence.

@Agent23 is banned from this thread for a month and is getting a week long vacation because he repeatedly ignored staff directives to stop with his antics and violated the civility rules. Seeing as this action is already endorsed by @LordSunhawk , appeals on it won't be entertained.

The previous thread is here and will remain locked.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Moldova for some reason is implementing moves to remove itself from the Russian dominanted CIS or Confederacy of Independent Systems Commonwealth of Independent States.

Moldova Is Distancing Itself From The CIS, But Leaving Might Not Be So Easy

Moldova has distanced itself further from the CIS this week by revoking key agreements with the Russian-led intergovernmental organization. With Russian interference in Moldovan politics intensifying and pro-Kremlin domestic opposition, leaving the CIS will be far from straightforward.

www.rferl.org

One possible motivation might be the reports of how Russia has attempted a coup with the Moldovan government as recently as this Spring.

Moldova, Fearing Russia, Wants To Join EU 'As Soon As Possible'

Moldova wants EU membership "as soon as possible" as protection against a threat from Russia and hopes for a decision to start negotiations "in the next months," President Maia Sandu told AFP in an interview.

www.barrons.com

 

[mspence]

Biden and Zelensky Meet:

Russia's war in Ukraine, Bakhmut latest

The head of Russia's Wagner Group claims to have completely captured the city of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine, but Kyiv partially disputes the report.

www.cnn.com

 

[mspence]

PS Glad you guys are on top of things. This is the sort of behavior that has made parts of a certain other site so toxic.

Anyhow:

F-16 fighter jets: Biden to let allies supply warplanes in major boost for Kyiv

President Biden backs a plan to supply advanced fighter jets and train Ukrainian pilots.

www.bbc.com

 

[ATP]

PS Glad you guys are on top of things. This is the sort of behavior that has made parts of a certain other site so toxic.

Anyhow:

F-16 fighter jets: Biden to let allies supply warplanes in major boost for Kyiv

President Biden backs a plan to supply advanced fighter jets and train Ukrainian pilots.

www.bbc.com

So,USA let other countries donate their F.16,but gave notching of their own.
Another proof,that Biden do not want defeat Moscov,only made deal with them.

Thanks God for putin,who keep refusing such deal !

 

[Zachowon]

So,USA let other countries donate their F.16,but gave notching of their own.
Another proof,that Biden do not want defeat Moscov,only made deal with them.

Thanks God for putin,who keep refusing such deal !

I mean, the US has donated a lot of shit.
More then a lot of countries

 

[Bacle]

Zelenskiy says Bakhmut still in Ukraine's hands

Asked if the city was still in Ukraine's hands, Volodymyr Zelenskiy told reporters, "I think no." Zelenskiy's press secretary later clarified that the Ukrainian president was responding to a different part of the question.

www.reuters.com

So Zelensky confirms that "At the moment, it (Bakhmut) exists only in our Hearts.".

Though to say the Russians gained anything trying to take this town is a farce, as the terrian means that Russian forces are now fish in a barrel and they've blown up everything in Bahkmut that would be decent cover against the Ukrainian forces on the highground west of the town.

 

[Zachowon]

Lets compare to world war 2 battles

 

[LordsFire]

No, no. Let's be fair. They did take the town. It only took more than half a year of pitched battle, but they have in fact taken one town.

Common military sense heavily suggests that they've taken horrific losses doing so, given how slow the advance and heavily contested, but we won't have reasonably reliable casualty statistics until after the war.

So congratulations, vatniks, you have a win, your first since the opening phases of the war.

Let's see whether or not it's worth it.

 

[ATP]

I mean, the US has donated a lot of shit.
More then a lot of countries

old shit which they must destroy otherwise,which would cost them.Now,it would be destroyed by kg on Ukraine.
Or used,in case of old ammo and missiles.

And,if you truly belive that USA seriously want help,ask yourself - how many older tanks USA still have,and why send only 31 ?

 

[Zachowon]

old shit which they must destroy otherwise,which would cost them.Now,it would be destroyed by kg on Ukraine.
Or used,in case of old ammo and missiles.

And,if you truly belive that USA seriously want help,ask yourself - how many older tanks USA still have,and why send only 31 ?

Because the cost of maintaining them js high and the Ukrainians are already getting tons from other nations...

 

[ATP]

Because the cost of maintaining them js high and the Ukrainians are already getting tons from other nations...

Poland send at least 400 - but still Ukraine captured more on kgb.
If we send half of our tanks,then mighty USA could send at least 400,too.
If they wanted defeat Moscov.

Sadly, you want made deal with them.Good thing,that Putin do not agreed.

 

[Bacle]

Poland send at least 400 - but still Ukraine captured more on kgb.
If we send half of our tanks,then mighty USA could send at least 400,too.
If they wanted defeat Moscov.

Sadly, you want made deal with them.Good thing,that Putin do not agreed.

Uh, you do realize logistics chains are a thing, and Ukraine has an easier time keeping tanks operational when they are ones they already have parts for.

The Polish T-72s are something that aren't going to require a bunch of new training for mechanics to keep in operation, or parts that aren't in stock in-house.

Where as the US stock of older Abrams is something that Ukraine does not have native logistics for, and for which their mechanics are not familiar with, so sending over hundreds right now is counter-productive.

Rhienmetall is already talking about producing Leopard 2's in Ukraine at a new factory they are planning, and the Ukrainians already have some Leopard's operational.

Leopard's also do not need a logsitics trail that cross the Atlantic, like Abram's do, and Abram's use a completely different fuel than Leopards or T-series tanks, so fuel concerns are in play.

 

[AmosTrask]

A year of siege and battle and the Russians are loosing their grip on Bakhmut already. That two billion euro per year coal mines they were boasting having captured isn't going to be helping them any time soon. Hahaha

 

[Aldarion]

I mean, the US has donated a lot of shit.
More then a lot of countries

Yeah, but on the flip side, US also has a lot more shit than... well, anybody really. Some European countries that are a fraction of the US size have objectively donated more than the US.

US have been dragging their feet the whole way. I'm suspecting US originally wanted to see Europe donate Leopards while keeping Abrams out of the war, and then try and use any destroyed Leopards to discredit them in the international market.

Yeah, logistical concerns are real, but frankly, Ukrainian logistics are gonna be a Frankenstein's monster anyway.

 

[Zachowon]

Yeah, but on the flip side, US also has a lot more shit than... well, anybody really. Some European countries that are a fraction of the US size have objectively donated more than the US.

US have been dragging their feet the whole way. I'm suspecting US originally wanted to see Europe donate Leopards while keeping Abrams out of the war, and then try and use any destroyed Leopards to discredit them in the international market.

Yeah, logistical concerns are real, but frankly, Ukrainian logistics are gonna be a Frankenstein's monster anyway.

Because only so much can be sent without congressional approval

 

[Wargamer08]

Uh, you do realize logistics chains are a thing, and Ukraine has an easier time keeping tanks operational when they are ones they already have parts for.

The Polish T-72s are something that aren't going to require a bunch of new training for mechanics to keep in operation, or parts that aren't in stock in-house.

Where as the US stock of older Abrams is something that Ukraine does not have native logistics for, and for which their mechanics are not familiar with, so sending over hundreds right now is counter-productive.

Rhienmetall is already talking about producing Leopard 2's in Ukraine at a new factory they are planning, and the Ukrainians already have some Leopard's operational.

Leopard's also do not need a logsitics trail that cross the Atlantic, like Abram's do, and Abram's use a completely different fuel than Leopards or T-series tanks, so fuel concerns are in play.

Rhienmetal admitted that they cannot build new tank hulls for an estimated 2-3 years. They can refurbish and modernize older ones but they don't have the tooling and trained workers for new builds. This was given in a statement by the company to the German government as a response to potential orders.

Basically, Germany can not build new Leopard 2s from scratch at this time. Not now, not for apparently years.

Now I think part of that is typical corporate begging for government money, and I'm sure with the right contract their timeline magically speeds up.

Edit- I don't read or speak German, so all this is second hand. I fully admit I might be wrong or subject to bad translations or misinformation.

 

[Emperor Tippy]

Rhienmetal admitted that they cannot build new tank hulls for an estimated 2-3 years. They can refurbish and modernize older ones but they don't have the tooling and trained workers for new builds. This was given in a statement by the company to the German government as a response to potential orders.

Basically, Germany can not build new Leopard 2s from scratch at this time. Not now, not for apparently years.

Now I think part of that is typical corporate begging for government money, and I'm sure with the right contract their timeline magically speeds up.

Actually somewhat doubtful.

Germany really doesn't buy new tanks and hasn't for a while. The next generation is also nominally supposed to be a contract around ~2030. So yes, the tooling still exists but it is most likely mothballed.

You need to get it up and running, establish the logistics needed to get the raw materials to the factory, and train/retrain a work force to do the building.

Even on a fairly crash priority basis that whole process is going to likely be a year plus before even initial test runs are being done. Full scale production is very likely to be two to three years down the road.

There is a reason that the US keeps the Abrams factory turning over with steady, if low rate, production.

---
The issue vis a vi Ukraine is that the US can't just hand over Abrams. Currently fielded M1A2's have technology in them that the US isn't going to risk getting in Russian hands, so the US is pulling the old hulls from storage and running their own special upgrade program on them to make a "Ukraine" variant that doesn't have the real secret sauce but it still considered good enough.

Then those tanks need to be shipped to Europe, which isn't a trivial undertaking. And then they need the logistics tail to keep them up and running; which basically has to come from US factories and shipping the parts to Europe.

The Leopard's aren't a risk tech wise and are logistically much easier to manage.

 

[Wargamer08]

Actually somewhat doubtful.

Germany really doesn't buy new tanks and hasn't for a while. The next generation is also nominally supposed to be a contract around ~2030. So yes, the tooling still exists but it is most likely mothballed.

You need to get it up and running, establish the logistics needed to get the raw materials to the factory, and train/retrain a work force to do the building.

Even on a fairly crash priority basis that whole process is going to likely be a year plus before even initial test runs are being done. Full scale production is very likely to be two to three years down the road.

There is a reason that the US keeps the Abrams factory turning over with steady, if low rate, production.

---
The issue vis a vi Ukraine is that the US can't just hand over Abrams. Currently fielded M1A2's have technology in them that the US isn't going to risk getting in Russian hands, so the US is pulling the old hulls from storage and running their own special upgrade program on them to make a "Ukraine" variant that doesn't have the real secret sauce but it still considered good enough.

Then those tanks need to be shipped to Europe, which isn't a trivial undertaking. And then they need the logistics tail to keep them up and running; which basically has to come from US factories and shipping the parts to Europe.

The Leopard's aren't a risk tech wise and are logistically much easier to manage.

Looking into it a little more it seems like it's half word games and half down scale. The super small number of new hulls are apparently made in Greece, so they can technically say that none are made in Germany without it being a lie. They are however making only low tens a year without any real ability to upscale production at their current facilities.

Though I feel like a focus on tanks and IFVs is missing the forest for the trees. Unless Ukraine gets a whole lot more air defence it's going to continue being bombed to pieces day by day. Even based on claimed kills from Ukraine, Russian Air losses are lower then prewar production numbers. This is not helped by shit like the latest Stinger missile scandal from 60 minutes of all people.

 

[Zachowon]

There is also no need to upscale woth how many are currently available worldwide