Russia(gate/bot) Russia-Ukraine War Political Discussion

[ATP]

Why am I getting the feeling Poland is gonna start a holy war

I hope not.We always had good connections with Persia,in 17th century they were our allies against Turkey.
After partition they do not recognized that crime.
When polish army come to Iran in 1942 with starving cyvilians,they welcomed us.
And now,they do not blame us for german crimes,like Izrael.

So,since they are one of few important countries which never attacked or betrayed us,i hope that we do not act stupid.

I take it that Iran is quaking in its flip-flops and mobilising in anticipation of being swarmed by Polish Army hordes?

I hope,that it is only saber rattling.

 

[Bacle]

 

[mrttao]

hang on a minute... didn't millions of syrians migrate to europe as "war refugees"?

Syrian refugees by country 2022 | Statista

Following the ongoing Syrian Civil War, millions of refugees fled the country, of which Turkey hosts the highest number.

www.statista.com

The Nativists Won in Europe

Even moderate countries have severely restricted the number of refugees they allow to stay within their borders.

www.theatlantic.com

1 million refugees entered europe in 2015 alone.

Most displaced Syrians are in the Middle East, and about a million are in Europe

Nearly 13 million Syrians are displaced after seven years of conflict in their country. Here are the countries and regions where the most Syrians now live.

www.pewresearch.org

More than 5 million displaced Syrians live in neighboring countries in the Middle East and North Africa. Those in Turkey (3.4 million), Lebanon (1 million), Jordan (660,000) and Iraq (250,000) account for about four-in-ten Syrians displaced around the world (41%), according to estimates based on data from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). More than 150,000 Syrians also live in North African countries like Egypt and Libya. The number of Syrians living in these countries surged in 2014, from 500,000 to 2.5 million, largely due to a sharp increase in Syrian refugees to Jordan and Lebanon. Turkey also experienced a large increase in both 2014 (from about 560,000 at the start of the year to 1.6 million at the end) and 2015 (from 1.6 million to 2.5 million by year’s end).

alright... so apparently from the sources I found on a casual search. the millions of rapefugees in europe are mostly NOT from syria but from other countries.

However, there are over 5 million syrian refugess, which just so happen to coincide with the "genocide" of ~4 million the russians allegedly performed there. The only evidence of said genocide being a decline in syrian population... because they escaped the country.

also in vietnam war something like 20% to 40% of vietnamese pop died.
it really depends on the war.

that all being said. putin seems genocidal

 

[Zachowon]

I mean we leveled Pyongyang in Korea.

 

[Bacle]

Well, I guess we know what the Belgorod has been up to...

 

[Cherico]

Well, I guess we know what the Belgorod has been up to...

this is most likely retailation for the pipe line.

thing is this is not a game russia can win. Their demographics are shit, their educational system collapsed 30 years ago, their economy is lousy. The west might be plagued by bad leadership but they functionally control the global oceans, out number the russians by a lot and have much larger economies.

And we learned during Ukraine that their milatary is nothing compared to Nato standard. My money is that were seeing the end of russia as a global power and maybe even a regional one.

Their best outcome right now is chinese vassal.

 

[mrttao]

this is most likely retailation for the pipe line.

yes. it is clear case of retaliation.

thing is this is not a game russia can win.

are they supposed to just not retaliate?
the idiots are the ones who started this by blowing up the pipeline.
now we will see escalation and large scale destruction of oceanic infrastructure.

also, I don't think anyone "wins" in this game.

 

[ATP]

yes. it is clear case of retaliation.

are they supposed to just not retaliate?
the idiots are the ones who started this by blowing up the pipeline.
now we will see escalation and large scale destruction of oceanic infrastructure.

also, I don't think anyone "wins" in this game.

If Moscov do not blown it.They considered stop suppling germany from 2021.

 

[Zachowon]

That is definitely escalatory

 

[Marduk]

yes. it is clear case of retaliation.

are they supposed to just not retaliate?
the idiots are the ones who started this by blowing up the pipeline.
now we will see escalation and large scale destruction of oceanic infrastructure.

also, I don't think anyone "wins" in this game.

What if they blew up the pipeline (which they couldn't use now nor for foreseeable future anyway) specifically so that naive people will start to excuse them when they do something they wanted to do anyway?

 

[ShadowsOfParadox]

What if they're just blowing shit up in hopes that something will get people to stop helping Ukraine.

 

[The Whispering Monk]

That just means the Belgorad suffers misfortune and goes to the bottom.

 

[Bacle]

this is most likely retailation for the pipe line.

thing is this is not a game russia can win. Their demographics are shit, their educational system collapsed 30 years ago, their economy is lousy. The west might be plagued by bad leadership but they functionally control the global oceans, out number the russians by a lot and have much larger economies.

And we learned during Ukraine that their milatary is nothing compared to Nato standard. My money is that were seeing the end of russia as a global power and maybe even a regional one.

Their best outcome right now is chinese vassal.

This is more likely retaliation for Western intel sharing with Ukraine, given the Russians most likely are responsible for Nord Stream going up.

Plus, France has committed to more weapons for Ukraine, so Putin is likely sore about that.

 

[Cherico]

This is more likely retaliation for Western intel sharing with Ukraine, given the Russians most likely are responsible for Nord Stream going up.

Plus, France has committed to more weapons for Ukraine, so Putin is likely sore about that.

The big problem with Russia is that its flat land thats easy to invade so their impulse to protect themselves is to expand until they get to points where the land is defensable. The thing is by doing so they scare the absolute shit out of all their neighbors and end up creating coalitions against them.

Russias security concerns do not end with the conquest of Ukraine in order to feel secure their going to have to expand to cover all of the baltic states, poland up to warsaw itself, and to the carpathian mountains. This by the way would put them in charge of a population larger then russia. Which is why the west cant accomidate them.

And in any war between Nato and Russia we realized we would obliterate them which puts nukes on the table because russian paranoia means they think this set of wars is nessary for national survival (it might be.) So the decision was made to bleed russia white in the Ukraine and make this their last war fighting to the last Ukranian to do so.

So yes Russia is escalating but the thing is the west can escalate to, and can pretty much obliterate the russian economy by simply seizing their merchant shipping which would force the state insurance companies to pay out and oblierate the russian economy even further.

To those of you who say just get rid of putin? Putin purged anyone capable of doing so, so when he goes were likely looking at a civil war inside of russia.

 

[The Whispering Monk]

To those of you who say just get rid of putin? Putin purged anyone capable of doing so, so when he goes were likely looking at a civil war inside of russia.

And frankly, Putin is a symptom of the Russian mindset. Offing him will likely only result in someone coming to power that's even more aggressive.

 

[Cherico]

And frankly, Putin is a symptom of the Russian mindset. Offing him will likely only result in someone coming to power that's even more aggressive.

That is true the problem for Russia is that all of their demographic hits are finally hitting all at once. And their spending the only generation that could regenerate Russias population in Ukraine, and this was already a fragile demographic so the more they bleed the less their capability.

Hence why I said their best outcome after fucking up this was is as a Chinese vassal state. Which isn't going to be fun for them because the CCP has fucked up big and is for their own world of hurt.


The problem with this era is that everyones leadership is some flavor of suck and every country is going to have a bad time. This might be our crisis of the 3rd century for the globe.

 

[Marduk]

The big problem with Russia is that its flat land thats easy to invade so their impulse to protect themselves is to expand until they get to points where the land is defensable. The thing is by doing so they scare the absolute shit out of all their neighbors and end up creating coalitions against them.

Russias security concerns do not end with the conquest of Ukraine in order to feel secure their going to have to expand to cover all of the baltic states, poland up to warsaw itself, and to the carpathian mountains. This by the way would put them in charge of a population larger then russia. Which is why the west cant accomidate them.

As i said many times, with enough paranoia and poorly disguised imperial ambition, a country can claim ridiculous amounts of territory under "security concerns", and do it cascading waves, as defending the further distant conquests could really use also securing the territories next to them, and so on.
By that logic Poland could have "security concerns" to grab everything between the Pyrenees and Ural, and so do all the other countries between France and Russia.
Obviously it's impossible for all of them to fulfill their "security concerns" the way Russian imperialists think they have a right to, so we're gonna have to stick with boring old system of westphalian sovereignty, internationally recognized borders and so on.
Likewise, China could build one hell of an empire by that logic, and USA could grab Mexico and Canada, because why the hell not, long border hard to defend, nuff said.

It's a completely ridiculous proposition of establishing an international order, meant specifically to excuse the conquests which Russia wants to do to begin with.
If Russia's neighbors were to apply the same standard to Russia and its puppet states, there would be nothing left of Russia.
And Russia only dares to propose such a thing because it is absolutely, legitimately, 100% certain that the West has dozens of reasons to not turn this logic around on them.

To those of you who say just get rid of putin? Putin purged anyone capable of doing so, so when he goes were likely looking at a civil war inside of russia.

I've heard a theory that this is the only reason why Navalny is still alive.
In case the elites need an emergency plan to back down and make deals with the West, he could be the "face" for those deals.

 

[mrttao]

What if they blew up the pipeline

I explained before that this is nonsensical

(which they couldn't use now nor for foreseeable future anyway)

they could use it for applying immense social pressure and leverage on the EU and the german government

 

[Marduk]

I explained before that this is nonsensical

they could use it for applying immense social pressure and leverage on the EU and the german government

In theory...
But what if they tried and it doesn't seem to work anyway?
Which is what happened so far by the way.
They could sacrifice the pipeline for a different type of pressure, at worst it won't work either.

And the third option is that it wasn't about foreign policy at all. Just a way for the hardliners to cut off the ideas of making good with the West local doves/oligarchs obviously prefer at the root.

 

[mrttao]

> US president says they will destroy russian pipeline
> US bomber caught flying over pipeline exactly when it was bombed
> Suddenly "russia bombed itself" is on allied news

oh well if the fake news media say it then it must be true. /sarcasm

Russia never promised to destroy its own infrastructure. Biden explicitly said he would.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/07/ukraine-russia-scholz-biden-macron/

> Biden: If russia invades that means, tanks and troops crossing the border of ukraine, again. Then there will be no longer be a nordstream 2, we will bring an end to it.
> Reporter (baffled): But... but how would you do that? Exactly? since the project and control of the project is within germany's control
> Biden: We will, uh, I promise you we will be able to do that.

promise kept
===

But what if they tried and it doesn't seem to work anyway?

what are you talking about? it was working very well. every day the anger germans had at their government for cutting them off from basic energy resources was growing.