Russia(gate/bot) Russia-Ukraine War Political Discussion

[AmosTrask]

I never said that they would use human wave tactics, contrary to popular belief the chinese didn't use them either, but the fact is the Russians do out number the Ukrainians by quite a bit. And having more troops then the other guy is a solid advantage. The russians actually went into this war with a lot of advantages.

And then screwed up so much through shear incompetence.

They are now on parity. The mobilized Ukrainian troops have just come off training from Poland and are now deploying. Russia can't conscript more without facing even more open rebellion. There is active fighting in the minority states sabotage, and clashes with Russian Internal Security and Army rounding up men tossed to the meat grinder in Ukraine. They've depleted the minority areas, they'll have to draft actual ethnic Russians from the core cities if they want to raise more troops. Russia doesn't have the gear or weapons to issue more recruits. Nor the manufacturing for more.

There are 400,000 soldiers tied down holding the borders against China and suppressing the ethnically non-Russian federal states. They can't use those troops.

They are setting records for incompetence. A company of conscripts were press ganged from their Oblast sent to a base just over the border from Luhansk. Given three bullets for shooting practice, one hour for tactics training. Given vodka and were left alone. Two days later they were drooped off in the front lines and were overrun and captured within an hour by the Ukrainian offensive drive to Severodonetsk.

Another video has a mob of conscripts almost lynching their commanding general when he came over with the sergeants and tried to order them to the transports for deployment. It is Chaos in Russia. The only way they win is if Ukraine gives them the time to reorganize.

 

[Marduk]

With Vietnam lets face facts China came close during several periods of time, the people of vietnam are unbelivably hardcore.

The Korean war was a hard fight a really hard fight and we litterally had to threaten them with nukes to get them to back off. That said while numbers help their not everything.

I do hope the Ukranians win this but on the other hand their going to have to kill a whole hell of a lot of russians before they back down.

And that was with China, a country with population 10x the size of Russia's, invading what was third world countries at the time. And the stuff they were using was even new, not reserves from half a century back. The lesson is, it's not WW1 anymore, divisions of barely trained and equipped infantry aren't good for that many things, they are just area targets for enemy artillery and airpower. They aren't something you win wars with against more reasonable force compositions. If you look at what asskicking Russia took in its machine park you will see why others got a different conclusion there.

There are 400,000 soldiers tied down holding the borders against China and suppressing the ethnically non-Russian federal states. They can't use those troops.

Not anymore.
They have already stripped these units of what good equipment and specialists they had.

 

[Bacle]

With Vietnam lets face facts China came close during several periods of time, the people of vietnam are unbelivably hardcore.

The Korean war was a hard fight a really hard fight and we litterally had to threaten them with nukes to get them to back off. That said while numbers help their not everything.

I do hope the Ukranians win this but on the other hand their going to have to kill a whole hell of a lot of russians before they back down.

I think things are moving much faster inside Russia this time; after all, they didn't have the internet and camera phones in 1917.

Even the state propagandists are basically fed up with the lies coming from the top, and are out for blood.


The situation in Ukraine is so bad that the internal Russian propaganda machine cannot paper over the fuck ups caused by the corruption in the state and military anymore, and are starting to turn against the gov who's paying them.

The needing civies to buy supplies for troops and the lack of basics like winter clothing and tents could not be hidden from the Russian people, and they've started asking the hard questions that see leaders fall if they do not provide a scapegoat.

Someone is going to take the fall for this, and notice Shoigu speaks and is video'd far more often than any other Russian official these days.



Remember, Russia is so diminished on the international stage the pres of Kazahkstan was able to throw shade on Putin in person, in front of a live diplomatic conference, and refused to recognize the claims to 'disputed areas' despite the Russian referendum/claims. And Putin could do nothing about it, because Kazahkstan has enough oil and gas to be a competitor for supplying Europe with gas via the Caspian Sea route, instead of through Russia.

Also, the CCP might be eye's Siberia more than Taiwan these days; far more resources up there to tap than in Taiwan, as they have to know they would never get the semi-conductor foundries intact. The CCP and their media have made noises about claims to Vladivostok/Port Arthur, and eastern Siberia as a whole in the past.

Putin may be the one history sees as the person who killed the Russian Federation, and led to Russia being reduced to an effective Rump state with a few questionably maintained nukes.

 

[Zachowon]

This is what true liberation is.

 

[Cherico]

I think things are moving much faster inside Russia this time; after all, they didn't have the internet and camera phones in 1917.

Even the state propagandists are basically fed up with the lies coming from the top, and are out for blood.


The situation in Ukraine is so bad that the internal Russian propaganda machine cannot paper over the fuck ups caused by the corruption in the state and military anymore, and are starting to turn against the gov who's paying them.

The needing civies to buy supplies for troops and the lack of basics like winter clothing and tents could not be hidden from the Russian people, and they've started asking the hard questions that see leaders fall if they do not provide a scapegoat.

Someone is going to take the fall for this, and notice Shoigu speaks and is video'd far more often than any other Russian official these days.



Remember, Russia is so diminished on the international stage the pres of Kazahkstan was able to throw shade on Putin in person, in front of a live diplomatic conference, and refused to recognize the claims to 'disputed areas' despite the Russian referendum/claims. And Putin could do nothing about it, because Kazahkstan has enough oil and gas to be a competitor for supplying Europe with gas via the Caspian Sea route, instead of through Russia.

Also, the CCP might be eye's Siberia more than Taiwan these days; far more resources up there to tap than in Taiwan, as they have to know they would never get the semi-conductor foundries intact. The CCP and their media have made noises about claims to Vladivostok/Port Arthur, and eastern Siberia as a whole in the past.

Putin may be the one history sees as the person who killed the Russian Federation, and led to Russia being reduced to an effective Rump state with a few questionably maintained nukes.

Like I said I hope Ukraine wins this one because I know for a fact it wont end with Ukraine.

And if the Russian Federation died I wouldn't shed a tear this is a region of the world america has had beef with for multiple generations now.

 

[AmosTrask]

Like I said I hope Ukraine wins this one because I know for a fact it wont end with Ukraine.

And if the Russian Federation died I wouldn't shed a tear this is a region of the world america has had beef with for multiple generations now.

The wars Russia stopped in the 90s that were caused by Soviet mismanagement are now active again. When Russia failed to deploy troops to stop the Azerbaijan invasion of Armenia. Which Armenia as a signatory member of the CSTO was entitled to, it told the republics that Russia could no longer act as the regional policeman and guarantor of peace. Every region is now mobilizing to settle old scores from the Soviet collapse.

 

[Cherico]

The wars Russia stopped in the 90s that were caused by Soviet mismanagement are now active again. When Russia failed to deploy troops to stop the Azerbaijan invasion of Armenia. Which Armenia as a signatory member of the CSTO was entitled to, it told the republics that Russia could no longer act as the regional policeman and guarantor of peace. Every region is now mobilizing to settle old scores from the Soviet collapse.

I live in the united states, the chaos there does not affect me.

 

[AmosTrask]

I live in the united states, the chaos there does not affect me.

I was merely expanding on what was happening in the region.

 

[mrttao]

So the real question is... what does Ukraine do after it conquers russia.

 

[WolfBear]

So the real question is... what does Ukraine do after it conquers russia.

Recreate Kievan Rus under its leadership lol! All hail the eternal glorious Kievan Rus-Ukraina!

 

[Bacle]

So the real question is... what does Ukraine do after it conquers russia.

Where are you getting this idea Ukraine is going to conquer Russia?

The only people who take that idea seriously are people buying some serious Russian BS.

Ukraine has not invaded Russia when it reclaimed the border areas around Kharkiv, and do not intend to seek 'territorial gains', just get their 1991 borders back.

 

[WolfBear]

Ukraine has not invaded Russia when it reclaimed the border areas around Kharkiv, and do not intend to seek 'territorial gains', just get their 1991 borders back.

Yep. Ukraine is not Fascist, after all. It might dream about a return of the Kuban but knows that it is unrealistic and thus will never actually try using force to achieve this goal. The Kuban was almost half-Ukrainian back in 1926.

 

[Cherico]

So the real question is... what does Ukraine do after it conquers russia.

Pretty sure their going to focus on recovering from Russia's latest genocide attempt on their people. Which also happened in the 20s

 

[AmosTrask]

Das ist doch alles Scheiße!

American veteran's viewpoint?


Perun's analysis.

 

[mrttao]

Where are you getting this idea Ukraine is going to conquer Russia?

1. ukraine has been rolling over russia due to russian incompetence. meaning it is very plausible for them to win.

2. ukraine can't afford to let russia spend a year or so reorganizing and rebuilding their military

3. ukraine said absolutely no negotiations with putin. they will fight until they win or until putin is deposed

4. ukraine needs to retrieve all the kidnapped children that were shipped to russia.

amusingly those are all points you yourself have espoused before. but have not actually put together the natural consequences of those points.

is ukraine going to just park at the border and stop. letting russia reform its military into an actually competent fighting force?

 

[mrttao]

The real big question is... after beating russia.
Are the ukrainian veterans going to also overthrow their own illegitimate government and acquire true freedom.

 

[LordsFire]

is ukraine going to just park at the border and stop. letting russia reform its military into an actually competent fighting force?

You see, there's this particular issue, that anyone who understands the basics of international relations understands:

The first advantage of being a nuclear power, is that anyone who invades you is subjected to being nuked. It's even the one use that isn't seen as horrifically monstrous to engage in.


Ukraine kicked Russia's ass West of Kyiv, and North of Kyiv. It didn't try to cross the border when it pushed the Russians back, they went right up to the border, and stopped there. The Kharkiv offensive also liberated some border territory.

And nuclear deterrence is the reason why.


So yes, we think Ukraine will roll all the way up to the border and then stop, because that's exactly what they've already done.

If the Russians keep shelling from across the border, well first off Ukraine is actually better at counter-battery fire, so they'd probably just shell back, but if the Russians keep launching cruise missiles into Ukraine?

Then invading Russia will be put on the table for serious consideration, if the Russian government isn't already in the process of completely collapsing due to internal dissent.


Also, if Ukraine is able to recover its territorial integrity, more time isn't actually likely to much help the Russians try for another round later. First off, because Ukraine can keep a large and ready military for if they try again, one which is demonstrably more competent and willing to fight.

Second off, once their borders are secured, they become eligible for NATO membership. And odds are good they'll get in, because the mask is off, and Europe at large doesn't trust the Russians to even pretend to behave anymore.

 

[mrttao]

You see, there's this particular issue, that anyone who understands the basics of international relations understands:

The first advantage of being a nuclear power, is that anyone who invades you is subjected to being nuked. It's even the one use that isn't seen as horrifically monstrous to engage in.

So... the answer is yes?

because everyone in this thread kept on saying how Ukraine is not going to give russia a chance to reorganize and rebuild their military.

 

[Zachowon]

So... the answer is yes?

because everyone in this thread kept on saying how Ukraine is not going to give russia a chance to reorganize and rebuild their military.

While they are in Ukraine.
Kick them out of Ukraine and Ukraine can become part of NATO
Then what is Russia going to do? Invade a NATO country?

 

[Bacle]

So... the answer is yes?

because everyone in this thread kept on saying how Ukraine is not going to give russia a chance to reorganize and rebuild their military.

We mean that i terms of it's current logistics networks in Ukraine that supply the troops fighting on the ground, and in the longer term cutting Russia off from a lot of the supplies that the need to rebuilt to a 'modern' military like they were before Feb 24th.

And as pointed out above, once Russia is removed from Ukrainian soil, then Ukraine is likely to get a speed-run NATO admissions process.

So if Russia tried again after that, then it's Article 5 time.