No, because I have no real experience with warfare and am entirely going off of what's reported or explained by other sources. That fact that despite that uncertainty I'm still dubious about Russia's capabilities is almost entirely because the pro russian side has been comprehensively unable to put a clear and convincing narrative together. Case in point:
Russia is absolutely hammering ukraine with missile and airstrikes. Ukraine cant manufacture anything, cant refine its own oil, is having its bridge, rail and infrastructure turned to craters, has lost control of the airspace and cant easily move its troops around. They have little strategic mobility and arent able to conduct large and coordinated counteroffensives.
Inability to manufacture or refine oil isn't relevant in modern war (
nor is it an exclusively Ukrainian problem), as people keep saying in this thread before, modern war is waged with the equipment you have at the start with extremely limited ability to replace it. An ability Ukraine has and that Russia doesn't, because the west is sending new equipment to Ukraine while no one is supplying Russia.
I haven't seen anything else about heavy bombing railways, bridges, and roads, and if it is going on that's not purely to Russia's advantage, you can't advance up a bombed out railway any more than the enemy can reinforce over it.
I've heard contradictory reports about Ukraine's ability to counter-attack. Given that they did counterattack at Kyiv and the people inisting thry can't are people like you, with your severe misunderstanding of the equipment resupply situation, I don't believe you when you talk about the Ukrainian militaries ability to maneuver.
Russia is shaping the battlefield for thier next attack. They are expanding the bridgehead at izyum, securing and fortifying its flanks. they are positioning large amounts of equipment and men. And they are waiting for the ground to dry out a bit more.
A couple more weeks at most.
It's been "almost over" and "a couple more weeks" and "the next major offensive" for the entire war. I'm not particularly convinced that this time you've cracked the code and the Russians are actually going to start winning this time.