Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

[Battlegrinder]

What do you call over 1k Ukranian marines surrendering at the Ilych plant?

Ukraine's army has 245,000 guys in it. If this surrender actually happened, which I have doubts about as most of the reports from it are from Russian sources (which have somehow had the final garrison surrender to Russian forces repeatedly this last week), beating 1/245th of your enemies army is not what I would call a "crushing victory".

 

[AnimalNoodles]

I don't think Russia is doing well even by your standards. Remember two weeks ago ago when Chiron was running around citing that "Armchair Warlord" guy, who was totally sure the next offensive was when Ukraine will fall for sure? Cut to now, and the most significant gain is a russuan missile cruiser boldly occupying the bottom of the Black Sea (and that's not really a gain so much as it is reinforcing those VDV guys they dropped into the sea earily in the war).

Like, even if Russia is advancing, which to my knowledge they're not, this doesn't look like "crushing superiority".

You sure about that?

Russia is absolutely hammering ukraine with missile and airstrikes. Ukraine cant manufacture anything, cant refine its own oil, is having its bridge, rail and infrastructure turned to craters, has lost control of the airspace and cant easily move its troops around. They have little strategic mobility and arent able to conduct large and coordinated counteroffensives.

Thay have also suffered a bad defeat at mariupol, losing perhaps 4-6,000 men combat ineffective

Russia is shaping the battlefield for thier next attack. They are expanding the bridgehead at izyum, securing and fortifying its flanks. they are positioning large amounts of equipment and men. And they are waiting for the ground to dry out a bit more.
A couple more weeks at most.

This isnt american curbstomp wars against goat herders. Ukrainian forces outnumber the russians in theatre, are well trained and being supplied with NATO intelligence and equipment.

 

[Zachowon]

You sure about that?

Russia is absolutely hammering ukraine with missile and airstrikes. Ukraine cant manufacture anything, cant refine its own oil, is having its bridge, rail and infrastructure turned to craters, has lost control of the airspace and cant easily move its troops around. They have little strategic mobility and arent able to conduct large and coordinated counteroffensives.

Thay have also suffered a bad defeat at mariupol, losing perhaps 4-6,000 men combat ineffective

Russia is shaping the battlefield for thier next attack. They are expanding the bridgehead at izyum, securing and fortifying its flanks. they are positioning large amounts of equipment and men. And they are waiting for the ground to dry out a bit more.
A couple more weeks at most.

This isnt american curbstomp wars against goat herders. Ukrainian forces outnumber the russians in theatre, are well trained and being supplied with NATO intelligence and equipment.

Why are we not hearing of this Russian Air dominance?

The Ukrainians are getting more oil and stuff sent in by Convoys not just rail.
The Russians have heavily inaccurate missles and are not able to actually hit anything.
They seem to rely on GPS as we can tell by thoer planes.
Yet what have they no access to?

Hell they arnt having trouble moving forces at all. If they did we would hear more about it.
The Russians are having more difficulty.

You are eating Russian propaganda.

Read planefags long posts

 

[Battlegrinder]

You sure about that?

No, because I have no real experience with warfare and am entirely going off of what's reported or explained by other sources. That fact that despite that uncertainty I'm still dubious about Russia's capabilities is almost entirely because the pro russian side has been comprehensively unable to put a clear and convincing narrative together. Case in point:

Russia is absolutely hammering ukraine with missile and airstrikes. Ukraine cant manufacture anything, cant refine its own oil, is having its bridge, rail and infrastructure turned to craters, has lost control of the airspace and cant easily move its troops around. They have little strategic mobility and arent able to conduct large and coordinated counteroffensives.

Inability to manufacture or refine oil isn't relevant in modern war (nor is it an exclusively Ukrainian problem), as people keep saying in this thread before, modern war is waged with the equipment you have at the start with extremely limited ability to replace it. An ability Ukraine has and that Russia doesn't, because the west is sending new equipment to Ukraine while no one is supplying Russia.

I haven't seen anything else about heavy bombing railways, bridges, and roads, and if it is going on that's not purely to Russia's advantage, you can't advance up a bombed out railway any more than the enemy can reinforce over it.

I've heard contradictory reports about Ukraine's ability to counter-attack. Given that they did counterattack at Kyiv and the people inisting thry can't are people like you, with your severe misunderstanding of the equipment resupply situation, I don't believe you when you talk about the Ukrainian militaries ability to maneuver.

Russia is shaping the battlefield for thier next attack. They are expanding the bridgehead at izyum, securing and fortifying its flanks. they are positioning large amounts of equipment and men. And they are waiting for the ground to dry out a bit more.
A couple more weeks at most.

It's been "almost over" and "a couple more weeks" and "the next major offensive" for the entire war. I'm not particularly convinced that this time you've cracked the code and the Russians are actually going to start winning this time.

 

[Bacle]

Google Earth isn't masking Russian secret sites anymore:

 

[Sailor.X]

Google Earth isn't masking Russian secret sites anymore:

The CCP taking detailed notes of all the sites for sure.

 

[strunkenwhite]

Russia is shaping the battlefield for thier next attack.

A tragic number of Russian soldiers have died but I don't think it's quite to landscape-altering proportions yet.

 

[Megadeath]

A tragic number of Russian soldiers have died but I don't think it's quite to landscape-altering proportions yet.

Yeah, very small hill. 1,240 cubic meters of dead Russian, approximately. Using the average human value which is probably low for an average soldier but taking the high end estimate of 20,000 casualties to balance that. Should be a mound approximately 20x20m on the base, and 10m high, I think? Probably I've made a math mistake somewhere, and also humans don't tessellate that well so probably bigger.

 

[Vaermina]

So Ukraine took a couple of insignificant villages on the flank while the Russians maintain their advance in the critical direction? That refutes what I said how? Ukrainian forces were still stopped from advancing any significant distance or stopping the Russian advance. Sounds like a defeated attack and we're in to 1945 territory where Goebbels was bragging about minor tactical advances as the war situation collapsed.

You might want to look at the map...

Those villages are on the way to Kupiansk, and if Ukraine takes that they've basically pocketed the Russian forces in Izyum. Which means Russia is going to have to pull some of it's forces back from where it was very slowly advancing towards Hrushuvakha to reinforce Kupiansk.

At which point Ukraine will probably pull back it's forces heading to Kupiansk and make a thrust against the remaining Hrushuvakha forces. Which they can do, because Ukraine has been shown to have a lot higher mobility then the invading Russian forces.

 

[sillygoose]

You might want to look at the map...

Those villages are on the way to Kupiansk, and if Ukraine takes that they've basically pocketed the Russian forces in Izyum. Which means Russia is going to have to pull some of it's forces back from where it was very slowly advancing towards Hrushuvakha to reinforce Kupiansk.

All Ukrainian counterattacks against or attempts to stop them from taking Izyum have been serious failures. They have reinforcements from the Kiev area now, no need to pull anything back or stop their forward momentum. This isn't the Kiev area.

At which point Ukraine will probably pull back it's forces heading to Kupiansk and make a thrust against the remaining Hrushuvakha forces. Which they can do, because Ukraine has been shown to have a lot higher mobility then the invading Russian forces.

Uh huh. Remind me which country is holding 20% of the other's territory?

 

[ATP]

lol, Russia has alot more drones, superior EW, the best artillery on the planet and far more of it. Your view is warped by the twitter hyperreality which mostly shows ukrainian successes.

If they are as good as their super cruiser which totally do not sink,then Uraine is safe.
When war started,i expected that Kiev would fall after 2 weeks ro second army on Eart.Now? they could win only using nukes/mobilizing millions of conspricts/ both.

 

[Vaermina]

All Ukrainian counterattacks against or attempts to stop them from taking Izyum have been serious failures. They have reinforcements from the Kiev area now, no need to pull anything back or stop their forward momentum. This isn't the Kiev area.

You... Do realize the units from the Kyiv area are barely functional?

And that Russia pulling back from Kyiv means Ukraine can also reinforce?

Uh huh. Remind me which country is holding 20% of the other's territory?

There isn't one.

 

[sillygoose]

You... Do realize the units from the Kyiv area are barely functional?

Got proof of that?

And that Russia pulling back from Kyiv means Ukraine can also reinforce?

With what weapons, ammo, and transport? I'm sure they're sending in their Volkssturm, but that isn't going to survive long in the face of enemy air superiority and artillery/supply dominance.

There isn't one.

I see you can't read a map.

 

[ATP]

Coons says he’s worried ‘we will see Ukraine turn into Syria’

Sen. Coons discusses U.S. response to Russia/Ukraine war, including possible troop deployment

Speaking at the University of Michigan, Sen. Chris Coons discusses Ukrainian security assistance from the U.S.

www.delawarepublic.org

His statements really made even my most ardent Pro-USA coworkers nervous since they grew up during the Cold War and Pro-ASEAN or Anti-interventionist annoyed. I'm curious if this Senator really understand the consequences of American boots on the ground of Ukraine?

Why? ukrainian need more weapons,including artillery ,and they would be fine.You do not need soldiers there.

 

[Agent23]

Does he look shitfaced? The war's clearly taking it's toll on him but I don't see a cocaine pipe.

This is the recording where there were coke lines in front of his kids' picture, right?

 

[Vaermina]

Got proof of that?

Yes?

With what weapons, ammo, and transport? I'm sure they're sending in their Volkssturm, but that isn't going to survive long in the face of enemy air superiority and artillery/supply dominance.

You do realize that Ukraine has captured more vehicles then they've lost?

And that they have pretty much all of the EU and US supplying them with weapons?

And that Russia's air superiority is almost non-existant?

I see you can't read a map.

Oh I can, you just seem to think Russia is still holding the area around Kyiv instead of having retreated from it.

 

[Arch Dornan]

This is the recording where there were coke lines in front of his kids' picture, right?

I really have no idea. This is Twitter making a claim when I see no crack pipe but i can't deny the possibility of politicians snorting some especially him in such a stressful environment.

 

[ATP]

I really have no idea. This is Twitter making a claim when I see no crack pipe but i can't deny the possibility of politicians snorting some especially him in such a stressful environment.

Politicians do not need stress to do so.No matter - even if he is doing that,he still look better then Putin.
But,if i were Putin,i would hide in bunker,too.His KGB friends are not especially trustworthy.

 

[sillygoose]

Yes?

They source nearly all their info from the Ukrainian general staff, which is even less believable than Russian reports.
Do you have an impartial source that doesn't rely on Ukrainian propaganda from twitter?

You do realize that Ukraine has captured more vehicles then they've lost?

Believing in fairytales now, are we?

And that they have pretty much all of the EU and US supplying them with weapons?

You mean the stuff getting blown up before it can get to the front or in amounts so small and outdated that it is having at best a minor impact on the fighting?

And that Russia's air superiority is almost non-existant?

You're basing that on...? Last I checked Kiev is getting bombed pretty regularly as are all the oil refineries and depots in Ukraine.

Oh I can, you just seem to think Russia is still holding the area around Kyiv instead of having retreated from it.

 

[The Original Sixth]

Unconfirmed report that Coach Red Pill was killed by SBU.

Silver lining to every war I suppose.