Russia's troops were given the most dangerous thing you can give a military.
A deadline.
So they are pushing, and pushing, and pushing in an attempt to meet that deadline even though doing so isn't anywhere near sustainable for them.
Russia's troops were given the most dangerous thing you can give a military.
I think the part I got the most value out of was when you talked about the failure of Russian artillery to perform counterbattery on Ukrainian artillery, as evidenced by Ukrainian artillery consistently acting in ways that would be insane if such counterbattery consistently existed (and those Ukrainian artillerymen would probably be dead at this stage of the conflict if they were that insane). This is especially significant when Ukrainian counterbattery fire has been widely noted as highly effective.
Radio Free Europe said:Some of the incidents may also have a more mundane explanation, said William Alberque, director of strategy, technology, and arms control at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies: negligence or corruption in Russia and its armed forces.
“On the one hand, you have to understand that Russia is moving ammunition at scale, so accidents are going to happen,” Alberque told RFE/RL. “But once you get over, what, 22 accidents in 60 days? Then you are also going to be looking at enemy action.”
“Some of it is bravery, some of it is incompetence, some of it is Russian corruption, but let’s not get bogged down in the details,” he said. “The larger picture is that this is incredibly poor Russian planning, incredibly poor Russian execution; they’ve allowed infiltration of their airspace, and by missiles.”
Russian Liberation Authorities Erect a Statue of Vladimir Lenin in Kherson.
Somehow another Russian Helicopter Gunship was Struck by ATGM Fire Reportedly.
Russia Reportedly Finding More Random Volunteers to Shovel into the Ukraine, like this Aged Cossacks apparently. Unknown if this bus will be used as a battlefield taxi to the frontlines.
Ukrainian Military Reports They've Retaken Snake Island in the Black Sea.
Russian Social Media Website VK.com is reportedly deleting posts about War Dead? Hopefully it's to prevent disinformation.
Over twenty explosions and fires have been reported in Russia reportedly. Some are likely accidents, while others are all but confirmed to be due to Ukrainian activity. Some are just unknown.
Blasts, Bombs, And Drones: Amid Carnage In Ukraine, A Shadow War On The Russian Side Of The Border
Ukrainian officials have not taken responsibility for a series of explosions and attacks on Russian territory. Similarly, Russian officials have not made a big deal over the fact that Russian territory appears to be routinely targeted by a foreign military.www.rferl.org
Russian Liberation Authorities Erect a Statue of Vladimir Lenin in Kherson.
Sigh......They are grinding up Ukraines trained cadre while advancing slowly and systematically.
They are grinding up Ukraines trained cadre while advancing slowly and systematically.
Except Russia is loosing ground on two of three fronts?They are grinding up Ukraines trained cadre while advancing slowly and systematically.
They are grinding up Ukraines trained cadre while advancing slowly and systematically.
So, I repeat. What, exactly, are the Russians trying to accomplish here?
But... why?
I mean. Consider the possible goals:
So, I repeat. What, exactly, are the Russians trying to accomplish here?
- Encircling Ukrainian troops in the Joint Forces Area. Not going to happen, given they're advancing at a rate of a kilometer or two a day, at best. They couldn't "encircle" anything moving at ten times that speed. To encircle you have to cut off the other guy before he can withdraw, and that means digging in around him well enough that he can't break through.
- Somehow taking Odessa and keeping the entire Ukrainian Black Sea coast, which is impossible with forces committed across the entire eastern front. Nor can they hope to rapidly shift flank and steal a march with NATO intel assets watching everthing that walketh, crawleth or blyateth in Ukraine.
- Reaching the borders of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts for political puppeterring purposes so their "Novorussia" annexation is complete. Not gonna happen, given their positions across most of the front anywhere near Donetsk city proper have barely budged (in some places not at all) from the previous frontline during the eight-year Donbas War.
But... why?
I mean. Consider the possible goals:
According to what I know, and I'm basing this on the analysis of the Polish analyst Jaroslaw Wolski, the Russians' goal is simple, they're not trying any tactical tricks they're simply using a huge artillery roller slowly and at the cost of huge WWI-style losses to advance in an attempt to destroy the bulge in Donbass.I cant speak as to thier overall strategy everywhere, but thier goal in the donbass is grind up the best of the Ukrainian cadre with artillery, wreck their gear and slowly, systematically advance. I imagine once the Ukrainians have been exhausted enough, they will try for a full breakthrough. The strategy seems to be working, because that blob moving south of Izyum is growing.