Lack of warning on Russian strikes could be a result of end of intelligence sharing with Ukraine.
Part of the End of Intelligence Sharing with Ukraine on Striking Russian Targets or Russian Territory is affecting fires even on a tactical ISR level.
Ukrainian workers being trained in Turkey for the future opening of a Baykar Plant to be established in Ukraine for the production of drones.
'Partisans' reportedly destroyed a Russian S-300 System in the Tver Area in Russian territory, setting it on fire.
Ukrainian Officer 'Tatarigami' offers his analysis of Ukrainian versus Russian manpower, losses and casualties and desertion including examination of loss ratio.
It first examines Russian AWOL/Desertion Records using Russian Court Data and Leaked Documents/Data. They don't disclose the apparently known numbers of Ukrainian desertions except they are higher then the Russian numbers with some caveats.
The report then details casualties and losses and estimates Russia has lost 210,000 killed and 200,000 severely wounded. Adding in estimates of missing and desertions (including unreported or missing deaths and bodies) the estimate of permanent losses of Russia are estimated to be between 460,000-560,000. Total casualties for Russia could be around one million but wounded who recover aren't included in the ratio the article is formulating for "losses."
Conversely they state Ukraine's losses in killed and severely wounded is potentially under half that of the Russians, with 90,000 killed and another 90,000 severely wounded. This is due in part because Ukrainian wounded are often given better treatment. But of permanent losses including those who went AWOL or deserted could balloon those losses up to 300,000 thus changing a ratio of 1:2 losses in favor of Ukraine potentially being as close as 1:1.87 loss ratio versus Russia. Thus Ukraine does suffer from manpower shortages since Russia has a population three times as much.
Ukraine could be facing more critical manpower shortcomings if they follow current manpower/mobilization methods in 6-12 months time.
@Tatarigami_UA: Frontelligence Insight Special Report: AWOL Trends and Casualty Ratios in Russia and Ukraine In assessing overall manpower casualty ratios, we analyzed Russian AWOL figures alongside Ukrainian estima...…
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Special Report on AWOL Numbers and Casualty Ratios in Russia and Ukraine
frontelligence.substack.com