Russian advances have significantly slowed in the new year compared to previous months and the Ukrainians have even made limited counterattacks that have seized previously Russian occupied territory and villages.
However Russian Offensive Actions Have Also Picked up recently.
The Czech Artillery Ammunition Initiative has delivered 1.6 million rounds of artillery to Ukraine and is expected to continue into 2025.
Perun did a new video pertaining to the Ukraine War. This one covers Russian Manpower, Losses, Recruitment or Sourcing and Sustainability.
He first covers Russian Manpower phases such as how the War started with the deployment of the Russian volunteer army plus Conscripts and Volunteers in the Donbass Republics taking up much of the fighting, before there were increased use of prisoners and convicts, private mercenary companies and eventually mobilized troops as well as volunteer/contracted soldiers. He even covers the sourcing of foreign nationals pressed into service using various recruitment methods including from Africa and India though numbers there are small. He also covers the North Korean forces who are apparently operating under Russian command and wearing Russian uniforms.
There was also discussion covering how the Russian Justice System has been upended due to the perverse incentive of the Justice System being able to pressure those accused of crimes into serving in Ukraine before trial or conviction or even payment of debt in exchange for fighting in Ukraine.
He then goes into the various methods as to how the number of Russian losses are tabulated, including Mediazone obituaries and breaks them down by category (Pre-2022 Russian Army, Post-2022 Contracted Soldiers, Mobilized and Prisoners). Interestingly in the first half of 2023 Prisoners made up over half of the dead suffered by the Russian Armed Forces.
Perun then discusses the demographics of those that have died and how that has changed. The average age of Russian officers who have died, especially early in the war, trended rather young especially due to the early graduation of military officer cadets. The average age of Russian military soldier fatalities is 33-35. Meanwhile by comparison the average age of Russian volunteer soldiers who have died is 42-44 with the age brackets of 45-50 being the largest.
He points out there is a harsh ecoonomic calculus taking place here as the average life expectancy of a Russian male is only sixty eight years old so the economic opportunity cost of losing an older Russian in combat is much less damaging to the country. However this also causes selection standards to be eased as older Russian volunteers are allowed to serve despite having previously forbidden conditions which include late stage syphilis, hypertension, schizophrenia, central nervous system atrophy disorders, and neurotic disorders which could lead to further degradation in quality of troops.
He also covers how in Buryatia as an example a poor primarily ethnically Mongol Oblast in Russia, a person is 6.5 times more likely to die in the Ukraine War then someone from Moscow.
Perun then discusses the inflow estimates of troops into the Russian Armed forces and the estimates of how many new troops Russia has drawn into its military with estimates ranging from 980,000 to over 1.2 million. There is a possible issue as its also estimated Russia only has the facilities to offer basic military training to 130,000 soldiers every six months. He then goes into the 'rapid turnover' of some contract soldiers, including accounts of soldiers going from signing a contract and then perishing in Ukraine eight days later.
He finally covers Russian 'outflows' and uses recruitment goals etc to determine the number of soldiers that possibly need to be "replaced" with estimates ranging from 550,000 to 730,000. He then points out that the number of those killed and wounded in the Russian occupied Donbass in this War could've only been matched by 800+ years of casualties sustained in the prior frozen conflict from 2015-2021.
Then he covers the actual Western estimates of Russian casualties, with IISS stating its 172,000 killed and 611,000 wounded (783K casualties), the UK MOD stating 790,000 Russians killed and wounded, Mediazone stating 94,000 killed based on obituary count and 120-140,000 killed based on probate cases up too mid 2024 and BBC/Mediazona full bottom estimates ranging from 159-223,00 killed. Meanwhile the Ukrainian MoD states Russia has suffered 856,000 casualties.
He points out as of currently Russian recruitment efforts has peaked in mid-2024 and that while manpower is one issue, it's also a financial worry as well as contract payments has increased several times over to maintain acceptable recruiting levels. However Russian manpower levels might increase in the short term due to the present belief that the Ukraine War might be over soon and they can collect the financial incentives without risking their lives. Also ultimately there aren't any "hard" resource reasons they couldn't find the money despite the cost/damage to pay for more contracted soldiers and ultimately Russia can also just mobilize more troops regardless.
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