Another Long Twitter Thread Showing Estimations Based off of Satellite Imagery Comparisons of possible losses or reductions of Russian military vehicles in storage.
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Media released of a Ukrainian Strike upon the Russian Kushchyovskaya Airbase, more then two hundred kilometers away from Ukrainian territory. Various Airbase facilities and sheds were destroyed or damaged, including the munitions and glide bomb kits stored within some of the structures. Several Flankers may have also been damaged in the Ukrainian UAV attack.
A Ukrainian Yak-52 a two seat prop driven trainer was reportedly able to down two Russian reconaissance drones, an Orlan and a Zala, by the aircrafts rear machine gunner.
Perun did a video on the New American Military Aid Package for Ukraine, its delay from 2023 to now, what's in it and what the aid will do.
Long Twitter Thread from Analyst Rob Lee about how the passing of a new Aid Bill will aid Ukraine but also moderating expectations of what it will do. The latest announced package which will deliver significant amounts of artillery munitions, mines and Javelin/TOW ATGM's will be useful as recent Russian offensives have shown that over reliance on FPV drones for anti-armor measures is still an insufficient replacement for those sort of traditional anti-armor countermeasures on its own.
Other critical needs will include more armored vehicles, especially Bradleys but also armored Humvees as well as M113's for medical evacuation. Air defense systems including the announced deliver of NASAMs and Patriot but also more MANPADs and RIM-7/AIM-9M Missiles for converted FrankenSAM systems which will help push back Russian Air Force Glide Bomb attacks. However the biggest issue, and one that has been long stated, is the Manpower problem and one that should be resolved sooner rather than later and that Russia's quantitative advantage regardless of lack of quality can be sustained as long as Russia can get 20-30,000 volunteers per month as it is currently doing.
He predicts that due to delays in mobilization of more Ukrainian troops and in American aid, the latter half of 2024 when Russian Offensives are predicted to resume will be tough for Ukraine but as NATO/Western military production ramps up and hopefully Ukraine sorts out its manpower issues combined with continuing heavy Russian losses in equipment and troops 2025 can look more positive.In short the bill is important, but the military Aid needs to be measured against a longer term strategy.
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Financial Times article on how sanctions are affecting Russian military industry and the Ukrainian Special Military Operation. Some notable bits include how the Russian advantage in firepower has been narrowing since Russians were reportedly firing 60,000 shells a day back in the Summer and Autumn of 2022 to peaking to around 10,000 a day at best in recent weeks even with lavish support from Iranian and North Korean stockpiles. Also sanctions have been affecting Russian ability to produce increasing quantities of precision drones, missiles, and guided bombs, compelling the Russians to mass produce lower quality munitions and equipment which isn't as decisive. Despite boasts of increasing military production, Russian artillery barrels are also being worn out, compelling replacement by Soviet-era artillery barrel stockpiles.
The most glaring problem, as long stated, is in manpower. Russia has been recruiting 30,000 volunteers a month, bringing troop totals in Ukraine from 360,000 a year ago to 470,000 currently. Financial incentives of pay surpassing five times the average wage a Russian can get in their countries poorer regions have helped forestall potential mobilization of more citizenry. But for decisive offensives with low tech weapons and narrowing firepower advantages would likely require more mobilized forces. This is because there is still a considerable lack of both officers and NCO's and general combat or military experience even at present.
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Thread by @Jonpy99 on Thread Reader App
@Jonpy99: 1/ Analysis on @Vishun_military footage of the 22nd, 227th/769th, 1295th, 111th, 1311th, 3018th/6018th and 2544th Russian storage bases. 2/ Here you have the numbers of all bases and the comparison with the...…
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Media released of a Ukrainian Strike upon the Russian Kushchyovskaya Airbase, more then two hundred kilometers away from Ukrainian territory. Various Airbase facilities and sheds were destroyed or damaged, including the munitions and glide bomb kits stored within some of the structures. Several Flankers may have also been damaged in the Ukrainian UAV attack.
A Ukrainian Yak-52 a two seat prop driven trainer was reportedly able to down two Russian reconaissance drones, an Orlan and a Zala, by the aircrafts rear machine gunner.
Perun did a video on the New American Military Aid Package for Ukraine, its delay from 2023 to now, what's in it and what the aid will do.
Long Twitter Thread from Analyst Rob Lee about how the passing of a new Aid Bill will aid Ukraine but also moderating expectations of what it will do. The latest announced package which will deliver significant amounts of artillery munitions, mines and Javelin/TOW ATGM's will be useful as recent Russian offensives have shown that over reliance on FPV drones for anti-armor measures is still an insufficient replacement for those sort of traditional anti-armor countermeasures on its own.
Other critical needs will include more armored vehicles, especially Bradleys but also armored Humvees as well as M113's for medical evacuation. Air defense systems including the announced deliver of NASAMs and Patriot but also more MANPADs and RIM-7/AIM-9M Missiles for converted FrankenSAM systems which will help push back Russian Air Force Glide Bomb attacks. However the biggest issue, and one that has been long stated, is the Manpower problem and one that should be resolved sooner rather than later and that Russia's quantitative advantage regardless of lack of quality can be sustained as long as Russia can get 20-30,000 volunteers per month as it is currently doing.
He predicts that due to delays in mobilization of more Ukrainian troops and in American aid, the latter half of 2024 when Russian Offensives are predicted to resume will be tough for Ukraine but as NATO/Western military production ramps up and hopefully Ukraine sorts out its manpower issues combined with continuing heavy Russian losses in equipment and troops 2025 can look more positive.In short the bill is important, but the military Aid needs to be measured against a longer term strategy.
Thread by @RALee85 on Thread Reader App
@RALee85: Some thoughts about the supplemental bill. This is good news, but it will primarily help Ukraine defend in 2024 and into 2025. Russia will still likely make further gains this year, and it doesn't fix all...…
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Financial Times article on how sanctions are affecting Russian military industry and the Ukrainian Special Military Operation. Some notable bits include how the Russian advantage in firepower has been narrowing since Russians were reportedly firing 60,000 shells a day back in the Summer and Autumn of 2022 to peaking to around 10,000 a day at best in recent weeks even with lavish support from Iranian and North Korean stockpiles. Also sanctions have been affecting Russian ability to produce increasing quantities of precision drones, missiles, and guided bombs, compelling the Russians to mass produce lower quality munitions and equipment which isn't as decisive. Despite boasts of increasing military production, Russian artillery barrels are also being worn out, compelling replacement by Soviet-era artillery barrel stockpiles.
The most glaring problem, as long stated, is in manpower. Russia has been recruiting 30,000 volunteers a month, bringing troop totals in Ukraine from 360,000 a year ago to 470,000 currently. Financial incentives of pay surpassing five times the average wage a Russian can get in their countries poorer regions have helped forestall potential mobilization of more citizenry. But for decisive offensives with low tech weapons and narrowing firepower advantages would likely require more mobilized forces. This is because there is still a considerable lack of both officers and NCO's and general combat or military experience even at present.
Military briefing: Russia’s narrowing advantage in Ukraine
Moscow’s forces are unlikely to succeed in a massive offensive this year
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