Russian Invasion of Ukraine 2022

[Husky_Khan]

United States Discussing Transfer of Patriot Air Defense Systems to Ukraine.



A Bridge to Melitopol was Damaged, Potentially by Partisan Activity.



Allegedly the Aftermath of a Ukrainian Strike Upon a Russian Military Base in Klintsy, some miles North of the Ukrainian Border. Suspicions it was Struck by an Ukrainian Tochka Ballistic Missile.





Pro-Russian accts alleging Parts of the Russian Army Showing Improvements Such as curbing or drunkenness and anarchism and better performance of artillery and more distribution of Russian Counter Drone Guns. Though this is Highly Dependent on Local Commander.

 

[Buba]

Pro-Russian accts alleging Parts of the Russian Army Showing Improvements Such as curbing or drunkenness and anarchism and better performance of artillery and more distribution of Russian Counter Drone Guns. Though this is Highly Dependent on Local Commander.

A war almost inevitably improves a military's efficiency as the dross - be it doctrine, hardware or human resources - is eliminated. The latter by being fired, sideways promoted, giving themselves Darwin Awards, or even getting fragged.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Russian Pantsir Air Defense System Engaging Targets a Bit Too Long. Something similar occurred with a Ukrainian Gepard a few days ago but unlike that one, the extra missiles here likely struck nearby structures or vehicles instead of firing a burst of cannon fire into an empty field.



Ukraine Reports Downing Almost a Dozen Iranian supplied Shaheds in One Day.



Russian Tank With AntiTank Mine Roller Apparently Disabled by AntiTank Mine.



Actual Slavs Joining the Slavic Alliance, In This Case Reportedly Serbian Volunteers.



Ukrainian Sources Report Revealing "Children Cells" Used By the Russians to detain children during the Russian Liberation of Kherson.

 

[Husky_Khan]

The Economist interviewed the Ukrainian Armed Forces Head, General Valery Zaluhzny, on December 3rd.



Archived Link Below Due to Paywall:

An interview with General Valery Zaluzhny, head of Ukraine’s armed fo…

archived 16 Dec 2022 12:25:50 UTC

archive.vn

Some highlights the Twittersphere touched upon:

On Russian Prep Early in the War:

The Russians have been garnering their resources for a long time. According to my calculations it must have been three and a half or four years that they built them up intensively: people, equipment, ammunition. I think they had three months’ worth of resources to achieve their goals. The fact that they have exhausted these resources and wasted their potential without achieving practically any result, shows that their position was chosen incorrectly. They now have to think again about how to get out of this situation.

They wanted to take Kyiv. Militarily this was the right decision—the easiest way to achieve their goal. I would have done the same. I know Gerasimov [the head of Russia’s armed forces] well (not personally, of course). There was no way out for him. He concentrated on Donbas to preserve whatever resources he had left. As of today, the situation in Donbas is not easy. But strategically it is a no-win situation for the Russian army.

He then states the three priorities are to:

One: Defend the Line

first of all, to hold this line and not lose any more ground. It’s crucial. Because I know that it is ten to 15 times harder to liberate it than not to surrender it. So our task now is to hold on. Our task is to monitor very clearly with the help of our partners what is going on there, where they are getting ready. This is our strategic task.

Two: Prepare for Future War, Including Potential Russian Offensives

second strategic task is to get ready for this war which can happen in February. To be able to wage a war with fresh forces and reserves. Our troops are all tied up in battles now, they are bleeding. They are bleeding and are being held together solely by courage, heroism and the ability of their commanders to keep the situation under control.

The second, very important strategic task for us is to create reserves and prepare for the war, which may take place in February, at best in March, and at worst at the end of January. It may start not in Donbas, but in the direction of Kyiv, in the direction of Belarus, I do not rule out the southern direction as well.

We have made all the calculations—how many tanks, artillery we need and so on and so on. This is what everyone needs to concentrate on right now. May the soldiers in the trenches forgive me, it’s more important to focus on the accumulation of resources right now for the more protracted and heavier battles that may begin next year.

Three: Missile and Air Defense

a third, very important task for us, a third strategic task, which, unfortunately, is connected with the first (holding the lines and positions) and with the second (accumulating resources). This is missile defence and air defence. In my personal opinion, I am not an energy expert but it seems to me we are on the edge. We are balancing on a fine line. And if [the power grid] is destroyed…that is when soldiers’ wives and children start freezing. And such a scenario is possible. What kind of mood the fighters will be in, can you imagine? Without water, light and heat, can we talk about preparing reserves to keep fighting?

On Mobilization and What Ukraine Needs.

We have enough people, and I can clearly see what I have. I have enough. I don’t need hundreds of thousands more.
We need tanks, we need apcs [armoured personnel carriers], infantry fighting vehicles. And we need ammunition. Please note, I’m not talking about f-16s right now.

...

I know that I can beat this enemy. But I need resources. I need 300 tanks, 600-700 ifvs, 500 Howitzers. Then, I think it is completely realistic to get to the lines of February 23rd. But I can’t do it with two brigades. I get what I get, but it is less than what I need. It is not yet time to appeal to Ukrainian soldiers in the way that Mannerheim appealed to Finnish soldiers. We can and should take a lot more territory.

On the Russian Mobilization:

Russian mobilisation has worked... They may not be that well equipped, but they still present a problem for us. We estimate that they have a reserve of 1.2m-1.5m people… The Russians are preparing some 200,000 fresh troops. I have no doubt they will have another go at Kyiv.

 

[Marduk]

Ex-commander of murdered Yevgeny Nuzhin confirms 10 executions of Wagner Group mercenaries

Andrei Medvedev, the former commander of convicted murderer-turned-Wagner Group mercenary Yevgeny Nuzhin, killed with a sledgehammer in mid-November, told The Insider that he knows of ten cases when the Wagner PMC executed mercenaries who refused to take part in combat.

theins.ru

 

[Husky_Khan]

Greece Willing to Send Ukraine S-300 Air Defense Systems in Exchange for US Patriot Missile Systems.



Russian Lancet Loitering Munition Takes Out a Lithuanian Upgraded P-18 Long Range Radar Mounted on a Truck.



Effects of a Ukrainian Artillery Bombardment on Russian Trench Systems in the Donetsk Oblast.



100mm T-12 Anti-Tank Gun Mounted onto a MT-LB in Service With Ukrainian Forces Near Bakhmut.



Ukrainian Ford Ranger Technical With Mounted Dhsk Heavy Machine Gun

 

[Bacle]

 

[lloyd007]

Looks like it might be Groundhog Day in Bakhmut with the Russians running out of troops and getting thrown back by Ukrainian counterattacks

OTOH Twitexpert talking about Zelensky's safety as if he's there to know the actual conditions

OTOH "They couldn't hit an elephant at this distance!" - Last words of Gen. John Sedgewick

 

[Marduk]

Looks like it might be Groundhog Day in Bakhmut with the Russians running out of troops and getting thrown back by Ukrainian counterattacks



OTOH Twitexpert talking about Zelensky's safety as if he's there to know the actual conditions

OTOH "They couldn't hit an elephant at this distance!" - Last words of Gen. John Sedgewick

Zelensky trusted own side's judgement of Russian recon-strike complex and so far it's working out well for him, to the shame of "we're totes almost as advanced as USA" Russia.
Basically their reaction time between getting actionable intelligence on something like this and being able to hit the target is atrocious, often closer to WW2 standards than Desert Storm, nevermind modern US armed forces. Usually no better than several hours, and sometimes up to few days. So note that he does these visits pretty much by surprise, and there is a very good reason for this - it's so that even if the info leaks or gets caught by ELINT or something, by the time Russians can arrange a decent attempt on him, he will be already gone and Russians will just get to feel more frustrated about how backwards their command structure is.

 

[Bacle]

 

[Marduk]

Remember the talk about air defense\air force deconfliction issues Russia had? It happened again...

 

[Bacle]

 

[Husky_Khan]

United States Delivering a $1.8 Billion Military Aid Package. This'll include One Patriot Air Defense System, as well as apparently JDAM's, HARM Missiles, thirty mortars, 37 MRAPs, 120 Humvees, lots of munitions and much more.



Another Russian Collaborator, Androy Shtepa, Was Rrportedly Killed When His Car Mysteriously Exploded in Occupied Territory.



German Rheinmetall Is Donating Ukraine twenty sox brand new HX 8x8 Multirole Trucks.



Russians Apparently Demolishing the Mariupol Theater Where Estimates Between 12-600 were killed or wounded in a Russian Strike on March 16th.



And the identity of the Helicopter Shot Down Over Snake Island Finally Revealed?

 

[Bacle]

Edit:


So looks like Rogozin's probably going to die soonish. Heard the injury was 'below his lower back', so Ukraine may have literally blown Rogozin's ass off.

 

[Buba]

Why were such VIPs (I presume) on/near the frontline?

 

[Bacle]

Why were such VIPs (I presume) on/near the frontline?

They were celebrating Rogozin's birthday in a hotel in Donetsk city, IIRC.

He may have also gotten some shrapnel to the head as well, based on other reports.

So the (former) head of Roscosmos is likely not long for this world.

Edit: Ok, he's a former head, not current.

 

[Buba]

Any particular reason for picking Donetsk as venue?
I don't see top level e.g. Azeri officials holding parties on the "hot" border with Armenia, or Pakistanis and Indians on the LOC ...

 

[Bacle]

Any particular reason for picking Donetsk as venue?
I don't see top level e.g. Azeri officials holding parties on the "hot" border with Armenia, or Pakistanis and Indians on the LOC ...

No idea, maybe he just liked the venue.

Roscosmos used to do a lot of work in Ukraine, and he likely spent a lot of time in country over the years.

 

[Marduk]

Why were such VIPs (I presume) on/near the frontline?

Consider the recent photo ops by Shoigu, Gerasimov, even Putin (himself or some say, his double) etc. Rogozin is one of the "Russia stronk!" party hanger-ons, and among them, making photo op visits in the "reconquered" lands counts as virtue signalling of own bravery, dedication to the cause, and trust in the stronkness of Russian military, to the point that some even outright photoshop such.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Christmas Eve Strike on Kherson by the Russians. At least seven reportedly killed and around fifty wounded in very preliminary estimates.



Ukrainian Forces Finished a Three Week Training Courses in Czech Republic, possibly in one of the training courses reportedly taking place in the Czech Republic earlier in this thread (which concerned Mechanized Infantry/Special Forces training IIRC).



A Senior Mechanic Who Worked on EW Systems for a Su-35S Squadron Was Killed in Ukraine Operating as a BMP Driver.



Supposedly Ilya Gamanin, an 18 Year Old Ukrainian Youth Who Became 'Famous' For Destroying Ukrainian iconography when the Russians Occupied Kupyansk, Fled When the Ukrainians Returned to the City, Got Mobilized into the Russian Forces and was Later Killed in Ukraine.



Long Thread Showing a New York Times Report on Alleged Russian Atrocities/War Crimes That Took Place in then Occupied Bucha Last Spring. This particularly string of reporting is trying to compile timelines of the deaths of over forty civilians on one street in Bucha using CCTV, drone footage, photographs after the DeOccupation, satellite imagery as well as calls made from the Victims phones and transmissions from Russian units in the area such as the elite 234th Guards Air Assault Regiment.