Russian Invasion of Ukraine 2022

[bintananth]

My guess? Russia wants time to regroup and knows it takes upwards of a decade for a country to gain membership in the EU.

So the plan is to retreat for a year or two, fix the problems with their military, then invade again.

Meaning Ukraine would be an idiot to accept it.

Or brilliant on the Ukranians' part if they can get EU membership and NATO membership as part of the peace deal.

 

[prinCZess]

I think at this point Russia is looking for a way to end this war fast, get a deal they can tout as a 'victory' back home, and keeping Ukraine out of NATO for good, in writing, while also allowing them to join the EU, seems like it might be a compromise Moscow can sell to the rest of Russia.

'Russia came, smashed the neo-nazis, and left' is a good propaganda line to tout as well.
So probably no progress even on a fast peace-deal until Mariupol falls and that can be portrayed as the real objective all along.

 

[Bacle]

Or brilliant on the Ukranians' part if they can get EU membership and NATO membership as part of the peace deal.

Not happening.

Ukraine may be able to get EU membership, but I expect any deal will include wording that keeps Ukraine out of NATO permanently.

Trying to push NATO closer to Moscow is part of what spurred on Russian actions in Ukraine for the past 8 years.

'Russia came, smashed the neo-nazis, and left' is a good propaganda line to tout as well.
So probably no progress even on a fast peace-deal until Mariupol falls and that can be portrayed as the real objective all along.

Possible; we'll see what happens in the next few days.

Getting the words 'denazification' and 'demilitarization' removed from ceasefire talks, while also not trying to keep Ukraine from joining the EU, is at least a step in the right direction.

 

[Husky_Khan]

More information on that contact sea mine that floated into the Bosphorous.



Looks like while dangerous, it wasn't brought into "active condition."

Someone tried to fire their NLAW at a Russian tank in Mariupol reportedly.



An attempt was made...

Also a pretty striking video of a supposed chain IED strike on a Russian supply convoy with at least five vehicles affected.



Russian Naval Infantrymen, Chechen Rosgvardia and DNR Fighters all working together in liberating Mariupol from NAZI/Fascist/Jewish Rule.



Russian Air Defense system takes out a purported Ukrainian Drone in a Russian MoD video.

 

[bintananth]

Not happening.

Ukraine may be able to get EU membership, but I expect any deal will include wording that keeps Ukraine out of NATO permanently.

NATO doesn't want to fight Russia and Russia doesn't want to fight NATO. That's been clear since before I was born.

Nukes will fly if that happens.

A clear "here's the border" would do wonders for world peace.

 

[TheRejectionist]

Russian VDV Paratrooper Mortar team in action. Proving you still need maths to succeed!



If your planning a vacation to idyllic Russia and come from an unfriendly country... you might be disappointed. Most of you can still visit North Korea though...



Russia is now going to attempt to replicate the success of Chadian Militants in the 1987 Toyota War. But how long can they sustain this campaign if cut off from Japanese Auto Imports?



Just kidding, Toyotas be lasting forever. If anything this is wise of Russia so they can engage in sustainable long term military operations.

Ukrainian forces sweep through a village and reportedly take a prisoner who apparently claims he is from the Russian controlled region of the Donbass and forcibly conscripted into military service. The poor lad looks pretty young.



More Russian Air Defense information... OR MISINFORMATION?!?!?!

I am half Brazilian so I can go pretty much everywhere thanks to double passport.

On a serious note, I am surprise of Zelensky's move.

 

[TheRejectionist]

Germany may prosecute use of pro-Russia ‘Z’ symbol and now it's getting ridicolous.

 

[Vaermina]

I think at this point Russia is looking for a way to end this war fast, get a deal they can tout as a 'victory' back home, and keeping Ukraine out of NATO for good, in writing, while also allowing them to join the EU, seems like it might be a compromise Moscow can sell to the rest of Russia.

I am sure they are.

Problem is, Russia's word isn't worth the paper it's written on any longer. So short of a Russia level bit of idiocy on Ukraine's part, the only "Peace Agreement" they are likely to sign is one that fucks Russia over hard.

 

[strunkenwhite]

My guess? Russia wants time to regroup and knows it takes upwards of a decade for a country to gain membership in the EU.

So the plan is to retreat for a year or two, fix the problems with their military, then invade again.

Meaning Ukraine would be an idiot to accept it.

If Ukraine got a bilateral defense treaty with Poland, then not being in NATO would be the diplomatic version of "nyah nyah I'm not touching you" for the purpose of defending against Russian aggression.

On the other hand, if not being in NATO precluded joint exercises (particularly on Ukrainian soil), then it could tamp down on Russian paranoia of Ukraine being the staging ground for a NATO attack.

I have doubts about this actually coming to pass, but it's not crazy.

 

[Val the Moofia Boss]

What could Russia have done differently on the strategic level? They could not have continued preparing more than they already did without it becoming blatantly obvious that an invasion was imminent, or else Ukraine would have begun mustering their forces.

 

[TheRejectionist]

I am wondering why Zelensky all of the sudden (again) is said that he is ready to discuss neutrality for peace. This is the second time the Ukranian gov said something like this but it wasn't him, so what's now the deal ? He is probably not keeping Ukraine entirely. Because unless someone big backs him up, half of Ukraine is gone regardless.

 

[Zachowon]

My guess? Russia wants time to regroup and knows it takes upwards of a decade for a country to gain membership in the EU.

So the plan is to retreat for a year or two, fix the problems with their military, then invade again.

Meaning Ukraine would be an idiot to accept it.

Didn't the EU already get it

 

[Bacle]

We shall see; maybe

Didn't the EU already get it

Not yet, but the current ceasefire talks are not putting any wording in that excludes EU membership, just military alliances like NATO.

 

[Husky_Khan]

What could Russia have done differently on the strategic level? They could not have continued preparing more than they already did without it becoming blatantly obvious that an invasion was imminent, or else Ukraine would have begun mustering their forces.

In the thread it looks like he analyses several things.

The initial strategy was that Putin was expecting Ukraine to collapse after a few days (ie three days) from the entire "blitzkrieg" concept. But Ukraine didn't just roll over and collapse as expected, hence why that might be related to the FSB terminations.



After that pewtered out in the first week, he shifted to a compellance/coercive strategy where bombardment and the threatening of more bombardment of major cities would compel the Ukrainians to surrender.



When that didn't work, for a while they considered encircling Kiev... attacking Mykolaiv, then attempting to bypass Mykolaiv and advancing up the Dnieper, cut the country in half as was theorized by some in this very thread. And of course successfully besiege Mariupol. But that didn't (mostly) pan out either. Ukraine was apparently basing their defense on a form of positional warfare and eventually the Russians seemed to be adopting that and now only focusing on the one front in the Donbass.



Now they're just focusing their offensive power on the Donbass/LFO area, which if they had done from the very beginning, supposedly would've forced the Ukrainians to go out there and MEET them in Mobile Warfare, not Positional Warfare.

Now I'm going to take a shower because I loath cringe amateur military analysis, and especially when I do it. Makes me feel dirty.

 

[Marduk]

Not happening.

Ukraine may be able to get EU membership, but I expect any deal will include wording that keeps Ukraine out of NATO permanently.

Trying to push NATO closer to Moscow is part of what spurred on Russian actions in Ukraine for the past 8 years.
Possible; we'll see what happens in the next few days.

No, the hostilities, on political-economic arena at least, have started with the EU association treaty related embargo, still under Yanukovych.
The whole NATO question is a semi-understandable excuse used by Moscow to cover hard XIX century style imperialism, mostly meant for gullible westerners. There isn't that much focus on this excuse domestically.
That's why their "ideal" plan was a shock&awe campaign to both take over vital pieces of land for further incorporation into Russia (DNR/LNR region, Crimea land bridge), while installing a puppet government who will rubber stamp these border rearrangements, at the same time somewhat solving the issue of Crimea sanctions in light of the land grab not being recognized, and lets not forget the demilitarization demand, aka ensuring that in case Ukrainians get ideas again any not sufficiently obedient government can be yet again special operation'd away with preferably very little effort in the future.

As such, even as a minimum option, Russia is going to be really unwilling to even formally accept Ukraine's EU membership, and even then, it will strive to leave a "try again later" button available by trying to get in the way of any external security arrangements for Ukraine, to use it before Ukraine actually joins the EU and "renegotiate" the deal in more favorable circumstances.

So far i don't think Putin is seriously considering any scenario where he backs down and cuts his losses, and won't do so as long as the military situation leaves any sliver of hope that they can keep an advance going enough to get one of the ultimatums accepted.

Getting the words 'denazification' and 'demilitarization' removed from ceasefire talks, while also not trying to keep Ukraine from joining the EU, is at least a step in the right direction.

Those terms appear and disappear now and then, proving what some say, these negotiations aren't achieving anything now because Russian side is meant to not achieve anything. They are just running out the clock in hope that at some point they get into a position where they can get away with negotiating through demands and ultimatums, that's when they will we seriously willing to take a deal, which is going to be their own ultimatum.

 

[TheRejectionist]

Europe in the meantime :



I can attest that, at least for it, they are only coming genuine Ukranian refugees.

So far at least...

 

[Husky_Khan]

Numerous vehicles captured, some apparent recaptures, by Ukrainian forces in the Kherson Oblast in Southern Ukraine.



A Rosgvardia Spetsnaz Major was killed in Ukraine. Rest in Peace Major Sergey Kashansky



First indications that elements of the 40th Naval Infantry Brigade presumably located in Kamchatka have been deployed to Ukraine. Rest in Peace.



Alleged Russian or Seperatist soldier on video despairing about his current situation.



Reportedly Russian forces kill a pair of civilians trying to escape Kyiv, one supposedly while unarmed and with hands in the air.



There's also (Ukrainian) reports that the commander and chief of staff of Russia's 503rd Motor Rifle Division have been killed. But it seems far from confirmed yet.

 

[planefag]

Big update. Maneuver, operational, strategic, etc. TL;DR Russia went balls deep now it thinks it can pull out l m a o

Man I'm tired. Think I'll try emulating the laconicism of other posters in here; punchier with less effort.



Ukrainian forces continue to degrade what little secure battalion-level communications Russian forces have. Soon they will be unable to coordinate fire-and-maneuver at anything larger than company level, and even then it'll be with unsecured Baofeng radios.



The continued incompetence of RU counter-battery fire leaves their armor to be picked off one by one by unerringly accurate Ukrainian artillerymen.



Evidence of the number of rear-echelon assets the Russians lost in the reaming at Trostyanets continues to pour in.



Morale is great, comrade! Now run to the front and soak up that machine gun fire with your body!



A TOS-1 crew gets cooked by their own thermobaric rockets. The steady destruction of Russia's artillery assets continues.

 

[planefag]

Russian casualties are mounting as filthy, tired Russian and rebel soldiers feel the cold sapping their strength. Morale is plummeting.



The erasing of Russian airpower by unerring Stingers continues apace. Russia will soon be unable to mount any air attacks whatsoever.



Russian technology continues to fail at appalling rates, simply falling out of the sky without any Ukrainians needing to shoot at them. Soon Russian forces will be blind, clueless, and without any deep recon ability whatsoever.



Irpin is liberated. The noose continues to close around the 13+ BTGs northwest of Irpin, who will soon be encircled, trapped, and obliterated.



The occupiers continue to be driven back from Kharkiv. At this rate of advance, Ukrainian forces may reach the border itself, putting rear-area Russian logistics supporting the Donbas front within striking range - on Russian territory itself.

Man. That was fun. I was able to post a lot more News a lot quicker! I think I'll post like this more in the future.

 

[Agent23]

English resident of Mariupol corroborates the Ukronazi use of human shields.