Russian Invasion of Ukraine 2022

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Hey guys. I've been writing daily updates on the war (well, sometimes every two days, depending) and doing my best to cross-check various claims and statements with actual video/OSINT evidence found on Twitter. I've also written some more in-depth analysis (to the best of my ability) to hopefully clarify some of the larger strategic dynamics for the layman (as opposed to I, the accomplished obsessive military autist. A Subject Matter Expert I am not.) My google docs document can be found here. Recently I've focused the most on using geolocated video/imagery to try and cross-check various rumors and official claims with what's being seen on the ground. I also post these to my tumblr. (Yes, I know, but whatever, it works.) Maybe you'll find it useful. And on the more in-depth analysis I'd love feedback from people with more in-depth knowledge of the subject matter.

Agent23 said:
Who are you gonna bring in next Mark "Gender studies" Milley, aka the guy who couldn't decide if he loves BLM or wants to bomb them out of existence?
The decision probably being dependent on whoever he is trying to suck up to at the time.
Did I say "Gender studies" more like "Skatological studies".
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I just wanted to say you have the perfect avatar. I mean, considering the source materiel.
 
Bacle said:
Not even close.

The commander never made it out (his hatch never opened), it had a full crew (that were hit again as they dismount, one guy getting lit on fire and flung several yards to the side of the tank, plus the guy in the ground near the front of it) and only one of the crew looks to have survived the attack.

There is also the second tank you can see smoking towards the end of the video.

This was likely a breakthrough/recon-en-force unit, as 72s are more mobile than 80's.

If this was a baiting attempt, it's doubtful they got off enough useful intel to actually give thier higher ups a target to hit.
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I see one tank, the video shot by the first drone has been cut and spliced for dramatics with footage from a second drone at a different angle.

As for the TC Hatch, re-watching it multiple times in higher quality without the compression that makes the gunners hatch appear more centrally located than it actually is, looks like you were right about the full crew. TC hatch took a near direct hit, so the TC is dead in the Tank. Gunner was killed as he was about to bail and the remains of him are seen falling to the street in multiple pieces. The body on the street is an Infantryman judging by the different uniform, and likely from an earlier probe. Driver looks to be the only survivor.

Judging by the top attack profiles, we are looking at Javelins or NLAWs and lack of fires, show the tank had been emptied of ordinance and had minimal fuel. So definitely used as bait. What we don't see is the Russian's own observation of this and I doubt we will for a long time as the Russian Army isn't going to openly admit to Families they are using their sons as bait.



Regular checkpoints going up to minimize road attacks



Ok, not enough information to know why the Su-25 crashed, looked like it was shooting off a flare. Ground fire to the cockpit???



Black Sea Fleet in visual range of Odessa.



Another person unwilling to die for Zelensky.

 
Chiron said:
Nor should we put much stock in you as you been consistently proven wrong. You were for Snake Island story after it was proven false. You were for the VDV failed at Hostomel despite it being bullshit and a Ukrainian Officer outright stating they failed to retake it. You also can't grasp that Ukraine lost the war. All it is doing is prolonging the inevitable and getting teenagers ground up. The sanctions will not work and the Saudis are now leaning to selling oil for Yuans.





More logistical support coming in. UkA stings are irrelevant at the operational level. They will be ground down into dust.



Comrades, sorry for blowing the shit out of your city, here is candy. But in seriousness, a lot of military aged males are getting through.







Try as they might, the UkA is unable to mount strong enough counter-attacks and as they are forced to throw more teenagers on the line with just 3 days training. Every success the UkA gains is reversed by the Russians who counter-attack in turn and gain more ground and grind up more of UkA's forces.
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1.They gathered 200.000 troops and planned to end war till 6.3.2022.And achieved almost nothing.
Why do you think,that reinformencment would work better ?

2.Those ukrainians after 3 day training face russian consprict who do not want be there and are made attack by Czeczen barrier troops.
Becouse ukrainians want save their country and they are fefenders,and russian consprict do not want die for comrade colonel,they would hold as long as they have ammo.


Chiron said:
Its one, the commander actually got out and took cover though it looked like his left leg was injured. And judging by lack of fires, it was a bait Tank deliberately sacrificed for this purpose. I heard of its use in Chechnya, and it was an effective way to get the Chechs to reveal locations before columns went in. Sucked to be the commander and driver picked for the job. Driver can use the escape hatch and hide under the hull till the follow up team comes to extract him if the commander didn't order the UR-77 to just level the street instead. The commander has to bail and risk MG fire. The gunner was pulled out, and since his controls are duplicated on the commander's side, he can fire the Coax to entice the ambush.

Russian logic here is to lose one tank instead of having a fully topped Tank get hit and trap forward motion and the rear vehicle get hit in the back. The Tank will be picked up and sent to Depot, it will be back. Russia has thousands more in storage.

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1.You forget second tank burning,comrade KGB.Decoy,too?

2.Putin is richest oligarch in KGBstan,and entire state is owned by KGB mafias ,when everybody is oligarch.Do you truly belive,that he would target them? he send russian army to die killing ukrainians,but his oligarch are sacrosant.
 
Chiron said:
I see one tank, the video shot by the first drone has been cut and spliced for dramatics with footage from a second drone at a different angle.

As for the TC Hatch, re-watching it multiple times in higher quality without the compression that makes the gunners hatch appear more centrally located than it actually is, looks like you were right about the full crew. TC hatch took a near direct hit, so the TC is dead in the Tank. Gunner was killed as he was about to bail and the remains of him are seen falling to the street in multiple pieces. The body on the street is an Infantryman judging by the different uniform, and likely from an earlier probe. Driver looks to be the only survivor.

Judging by the top attack profiles, we are looking at Javelins or NLAWs and lack of fires, show the tank had been emptied of ordinance and had minimal fuel. So definitely used as bait. What we don't see is the Russian's own observation of this and I doubt we will for a long time as the Russian Army isn't going to openly admit to Families they are using their sons as bait.



Regular checkpoints going up to minimize road attacks



Ok, not enough information to know why the Su-25 crashed, looked like it was shooting off a flare. Ground fire to the cockpit???



Black Sea Fleet in visual range of Odessa.



Another person unwilling to die for Zelensky.

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I think I saw something hit the Su-25 from the ground? I don’t think it’s the right place for a flare so it might be an impact? Hmmm
 


UkA S-300 battery destroyed.





The fate of all international companies that closed their shops. A Russian Company buys up the shop, breaks your IP protected by the Russian Government and hires back your employees and the profits stay in Russia.





If so, this may be why the Chernihiv Forces pushed toward Nizhyn which is also of late trying to push to Pryluky. May be the start of another breakout attempt by the Armored and Infantry Brigade trapped in the pocket before they become too combat ineffective. Otherwise they are doomed due to the lack of substantive supplies reaching them. Raiding can only give them so much and with Russia systematically destroying their depots, they need to break out now or never.
 
Due to media limits, "Pleads with owner to update the limit," another post.



Reminder that the drone war isn't one sided, UkA is getting hammered and has far less capability to replace losses and is in fact losing.



Hmm...



First time Russia announces control here. Question is if the UkA has any forces capable of re-taking it.

 
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Chiron said:







The fate of all international companies that closed their shops. A Russian Company buys up the shop, breaks your IP protected by the Russian Government and hires back your employees and the profits stay in Russia.





If so, this may be why the Chernihiv Forces pushed toward Nizhyn which is also of late trying to push to Pryluky. May be the start of another breakout attempt by the Armored and Infantry Brigade trapped in the pocket before they become too combat ineffective. Otherwise they are doomed due to the lack of substantive supplies reaching them. Raiding can only give them so much and with Russia systematically destroying their depots, they need to break out now or never.
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So? they supposed to win till 6.3.22.
Unless my theory is true and Putin is killing russian army so they could not made putch and save Mother Russia,KGBstan is failing.
Capturing ruin of charków and Kiev after months of fighting would be russian defeat - but,KGB victory.
So,it seems,that i was right.


Chiron said:
Due to media limits, "Pleads with owner to update the limit," another post.



Reminder that the drone war isn't one sided, UkA is getting hammered and has far less capability to replace losses and is in fact losing.



Hmm...



First time Russia announces control here. Question is if the UkA has any forces capable of re-taking it.
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Soviets did the same/well,they fired guns,not missiles/ to pretend that Finland started war in 1939.If you truly belive that ukrainians did so,you should buy Moon from me.
 
Destroyed or abandoned Russian vehicles around Chernihev.



Alleged picture of an American volunteer serving in Ukraine.



First documented wreckage of a Bayraktar drone.



Apparently an exodus of private jets from Russia to Dubai. There was similar movements of private aircraft to Israel earlier.



Chiron said:
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They were planning mines as early as almost three weeks ago apparently.

www.informazione.it

Odessa si prepara all'attacco russo dal mare, già il 25 febbraio coprivano di mine le spiagge contro i mezzi anfibi

Odessa si prepara all'attacco russo dal mare, già il 25 febbraio coprivano di mine le spiagge contro i mezzi anfibi. Sin dall'inizio dell'invasione Kiev temeva che il Cremlino potesse lanciare un'offensiva contro Odessa. A partire dal 25 febbraio erano già state adottate misure per fortificare la…
www.informazione.it www.informazione.it

And there was a post by earlier in this thread stating how locals were warned not to go to the beaches.
 
Husky_Khan said:
They were planning mines as early as almost three weeks ago apparently.

And there was a post by earlier in this thread stating how locals were warned not to go to the beaches.
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I was highlighting the tweet that it was a nudist beach. Priorities man, priorities ;)







Crew failed to spike the gun, minor fixes and its in action again.



Got stuck apparently.


Looks like the LT, now a Captain, he recently posted on his facebook, left his old uniform and flag behind as a gift to some Ukrainian Soldier. Interesting find.
 
Agent23 said:
@Butch R. Mann were you eager to see this gun, or another?
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That's 2S7 Pion, I was hoping for 2S4 Tulipan

Chiron said:
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Those were anti-tank mines, so it's unlikely a seagull would activate one, either there was a chemical reaction in fuse or somebody stepped on one. In theory they shouldn't denote under human weight, but there were already some Darwin Awards...
 
Updoot~

Chiron said:
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I've seen that gun before - it was photographed in Tokmak on March 3rd. Stood out to me as a mark of how frantic the fighting was there; there's very little cover or concealment in that terrain and there wasn't much time to dig in.

Chiron said:
Crew failed to spike the gun, minor fixes and its in action again.
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Rather hard to spike the gun when you're incapacitated - in case you didn't notice, that gun was hit by HE-frag on the left side (which is how you take out anti-tank guns.) Also note that the gun's sights are on the left side as well - that's going to be a little more difficult to repair.

Not that the Russians would have much use for a towed anti-tank gun firing hilariously dated darts. Of course, given the rate they're losing armor, maybe they will. 🤔
 
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