Russian Invasion of Ukraine 2022
- Thread starter killerofa23
- Start date
strunkenwhite
Well-known member
That being said, it would be deeply silly to expect Russia to not attack convoys of weapons headed for Ukrainian forces inside of Ukrainian borders while at war with Ukraine. Like, if NATO tries for a No Fly Zone it will be de facto at war with Russia in Ukraine. That doesn't mean Putin, or NATO, has no choice but to turn a war in Ukraine into WWIII.
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liberty90
Evil Neoliberal Cat
Relationship between internal security and military in Russia is not simple.
For many years, Russia is trying to pretend that they are global or at least regional power, while having economic potential more comparable to Italy or Spain (with addition of oil and gas, true, but while you can import machinery for oil and gas, you cannot create engines & machines from oil and gas by magic). Russian industrial potential is enormously lacking. Trucks stored for years without maintenance and with bad tires, rust and leaking oil, while on paper you have excellent logistics, are obvious and expected consequences.
Looking back at my first point, there is also a matter of military forces as danger to internal security forces. During USSR times, Beria was killed because Zhukov also wanted him dead.
There is a twitter thread that explains well how uneasy KGB may be with competent military officers:
This whole catastrophe is like comrade Beria trying to control military operation instead of efficiently organising labor camps.
Also:
@ATP
I think that you are trying to simplify into simple conspiracy theory between a few actors (Biden, Putin) something that in reality consist of extremely complex and contradictory power plays in between hundreds of people in Russian governance, internal security and military. Who may come on top of that, or maybe nobody and state can dissolve in chaos like USSR, we shall see in time.
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It could be true.
I still think,that Putin fucked war to have pretext to purge russian army,and help Biden handlers cover their fuckups,and it is still all according to the plan,when enough russian soldiers die,Putin would take kiev and crush Ukraine.
And,when they attack Europe,everybody would think they weak,but they take Warsaw in 3 days,and Belin in week.
BUT - i could be wrong,you could be right,and Putin started war becouse he belived that he take Kiev in 3 days,and russian army REALLY is that weak.
I hope,that you are right,and i am wrong,my life could depend on it after all.
Russian Drone striking at a Ukranian Grad MLRS.
Gas Turbine factory in Mykolaiv burning after Russian strikes.
One of those killed recently was reportedly a Major in Russian Spetsnaz.
It does appear not all of the Russian units are using the markings indicating.
EDIT:
A reporter for the New York Times may have been killed by Russian forces in Irpin, a suburb of Kyiv.
Gas Turbine factory in Mykolaiv burning after Russian strikes.
One of those killed recently was reportedly a Major in Russian Spetsnaz.
But there's a difference between the Russian T-80U's apparently made in Russia and Ukrainian T-80 *checks Wikipedia* T-80UD's? No idea if it's something discernible or not though externally.
If there is I'd assume one of these OSINT nerds would comment on it, as they've done similar things. Just today I saw them quibbling about differences in identifying T-72A's and T-72B's or whatever.
EDIT:
And if it is Russian tanks in those clips... then that would mean that shockingly, not all Russian vehicles have those distinctive lettering on them in perpetuity!Which we kinda already knew but whatev.
It does appear not all of the Russian units are using the markings indicating.
EDIT:
A reporter for the New York Times may have been killed by Russian forces in Irpin, a suburb of Kyiv.
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I'm guessing the logic is that's true but thankfully there's no War going on in Ukraine. Just a special military operation. So NATO sending convoys into Ukraine like before shouldn't be a problem and thus no reason to attack them. Russia commenting that they would is a needless escalation.
Silly anyways since it's all handled by Ukrainians anyhow.
Arch Dornan
Oh, lovely. They've sent me a mo-ron.
Kyiv, Moscow say talks could yield results in days – DW – 03/13/2022
Russia and Ukraine have both signaled progress in cease-fire talks despite the ongoing violence. Moscow said it had targeted "foreign mercenaries" in a rocket attack which hit western Ukraine.
www.dw.com
I saw pictures of the journalist being dead with his id photo on display.
Looks like the casualties from the strike in Lviv are increasing. Up to at least thirty five dead being reported now and scores more wounded.
www.bbc.com
Apparently around thirty or more Russian missiles struck that area in that strike.
While also a facility where NATO helped train Ukrainians (and vice versa to a lesser extent) currently it was also apparently used to process incoming foreign volunteers.
Though there's no mention of the nationality of any of the casualties yet.
Ukraine war: 'Sky turned red' as missiles hit Lviv military base
"It doesn't matter where you live" - fear after a deadly attack on military base close to Polish border.
www.bbc.com
Apparently around thirty or more Russian missiles struck that area in that strike.
BBC said:
While also a facility where NATO helped train Ukrainians (and vice versa to a lesser extent) currently it was also apparently used to process incoming foreign volunteers.
Though there's no mention of the nationality of any of the casualties yet.
Potentially good news... for some anyways.
Previous rounds of negotiations did allow the creation of Humanitarian corridors, though the sustainment of them turned out to be problematic to say the least.
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www.reuters.com
Reuters said:
Previous rounds of negotiations did allow the creation of Humanitarian corridors, though the sustainment of them turned out to be problematic to say the least.
Russia and Ukraine give brightest assessment yet of progress in talks on war
Russian and Ukrainian officials gave their most upbeat assessments yet on Sunday of progress in their talks on the war in Ukraine, suggesting there could be positive results within days.
www.reuters.com
You keep saying that. Do you mind presenting where you're getting that conclusion from? Because every credible analyst suggests otherwise. They don't believe any sanction is strong enough to deter Russia. And it's not an assurance that NATO will be able to maintain those sanctions. President Biden is already scrambling to get Venezuela, Saudi, and UAE to increase oil production. Venezuela literally can't and the other two won't even talk to Biden.
Biden's only path forward soon to avoid domestic level anger is to shut off oil exports. And the moment he begins to shield the US economy at the expense of others, the moment countries like Germany, Italy, and France throw fits.
It's amazing that we let our idiots just waltz into any warzone they like.
As this article explains it's not nearly that easy.
Yeah it's not a clear cut issue for sure of replacing the West with China.
China is refusing to supply Russia with aircraft parts, Moscow admits
Russia's aviation sector has come under crippling Western sanctions over Vladimir Putin's ruthless invasion of Ukraine, with Boeing and Airbus both halting the supply of components.
Who said it was going to be an easy or painless process? Not I. Russia's commitment to its security is very, very deep. Moscow sees the loss of Ukraine as an existential threat. Putin is neither crazy nor bluffing when he threatens nuclear war over Ukraine. He will. When I say that sanctions will not work, I do not mean that they will have no effect. I mean that Russia will continue its invasion regardless. There's a difference though, in blocking Russian access to global goods and services and Russia returning the favor.
Most of the stuff on that list are not "I need", they are "I want". Such as "If I WANT to participate in a modern economy, I need access to VISA".
Russia has resources that are "I need", such as "I NEED to eat today or I starve to death".
Russia exports about 20% of the world's wheat. Ukraine exports about 10%. Russia now effectively controls 30% of the world's wheat. That's in addition to major exports of corn, copper, nickel, and fertilizer. Countries such as Turkey and Egypt are heavily reliant upon those exports. They can't just shut Russia out. That's in addition to the gas and oil, which will contribute towards those price spikes. The hardest hit won't be the West; it'll be Africa and the Middle East.
The Western sanctions on Russia have had immediate and painful effects, but the only major blow was gas and oil, due to Russian infrastructure. Everything else is sharp and hard, but it will not actually kill any significant portion of the population. It just makes them angry. Russian sanctions are going to be slower to hit, but are going to be devastating when they do.
Yeah it's not a clear cut issue for sure of replacing the West with China.
China is refusing to supply Russia with aircraft parts, Moscow admits
Russia's aviation sector has come under crippling Western sanctions over Vladimir Putin's ruthless invasion of Ukraine, with Boeing and Airbus both halting the supply of components.www.dailymail.co.uk
Moscow knows it can't replace the West with China and they can't really admit openly that China is doing so. Unlike Russia, China absolutely needs the West to function or face widescale domestic problems. That said, they can probably get some resources as far as critical technologies are concerned. Microchips for their bombs or even purchasing Chinese weapon systems. China can't risk to be seen as openly giving Russia access via its economy or the West will have no choice but to slap China with secondary sanctions.
The West can tolerate China slipping Russia some stuff under the table. It doesn't hurt their image and it still inflicts heavy pain on Russia. Otherwise, the price of slapping sanctions on China and Russia is just too great.
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Actually they can, you forget that Russia was a net importer of foodstuff's.
Which means the rest of the world now has a surplus of capacity they can redirect to those other countries.
Buba
A total creep
He had it coming.
He deliberately went into a combat zone.
As to food and sanctions - the world has a surplus. And can grow even more. Let them eat cake
What sort of food? Are they staple food items? Are they staple food items that Russia can't grow domestically or obtain through one of their close economic partners? That's not the same as being Egypt and being able to import enough material for something like bread.
In other news, it seems like someone didn't think this article through:
A man in peace, but the moment the rockets start flying, a transman is suddenly a woman.