Russia(gate/bot) Russia-Ukraine War Political Discussion

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King Arts

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So looks like the chief og NATO says Ukraine does have support for becoming a member in the long term, and that for now the matter is continued support, along with support for joining the EU.

Looks like Russia will have NATO/EU forces just a few hundred miles from Moscow, once they have been pushed out of Ukraine and the 1991 borders reclaimed.

Russia shot it's own strategic goals in the foot with this war, and it's just a matter of when a disgruntled general or admiral puts a bullet in him and tries to begin limiting the long term damage to Russia by ending the invasion, and beginning to repatriate the kidnapped Ukrainian children.

What makes you think that is possible? I'm not talking about Putin getting assasinated. I'm talking about the kids being returned. Like the Russians aren't Germans they don't meticulously record everything. what if Putin gets killed/couped and Russia can't find where most of the kids are. What then?
 

Agent23

Ни шагу назад!
Alaska for one. And honestly North Dakota isn't that far off. It may not get -80 without wind chill, but I've personally seen -60.
is that Celsius or that weird stuff only you and iirc Ghana still use?

average-temperature-united-states-of-america-bismarck-north-dakota-us.png

Says -20, I literally get lower on many occasions including lots in the past 30 years, we had a few winters where it was -20 quite often.
And as I said, nomenclature and low population density and the disregard for far off rural areas in favor of cities all play their part, as @mrttao also pointed out about the linguistic differences.

You're damn right i'll ree at you until you start using non-shitty statistics that contain breakdowns absolutely vital to their interpretation.
Assuming that males/females ratios in Poland are 50/50 and that the sample is not skewed towards one gender or the other then only about 40% of polish males are willing to stay and fight.
Of course, that is assuming that no polish women want to go fight at all, which is unlikely since about 7 percent of your military is female according to the wiki.IIRC you guys had quite a few female partizans and your waminz can be pretty ferocious given the few I have met in person. :D


Also I'd wager that more people would be inclined to fight against M-Muskovvvv than to actually enlist.

So, less than half of your men really care enough to fight and over 30% of your population will run away, that is hardly an endorsement of your current confrontational policy.
 

Agent23

Ни шагу назад!
French surrender-monkey units.
I prefer to see them as First satellite/animal/man/woman in space units. :ROFLMAO:
Maybe on average in Bismarck. The record in this state was set in 1936 and has been met a few times the past couple of winters, including this one.
Those are outliers though, not the actual norm.

And, as I said, lower population density and differences in nomenclature and an underdeveloped countryside explain it.
The top problem related to lack of the type of toilets we are talking about according to that report Marduk is waving around is Child mortality caused by Diarrhea and according to it the incidence is pretty low:

0.1.

It is as if all that shit gets frozen solid or people have proper septic pits....
 

Marduk

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Assuming that males/females ratios in Poland are 50/50 and that the sample is not skewed towards one gender or the other then only about 40% of polish males are willing to stay and fight.
What 40%, another number you pulled out of your ass?
Dude, don't try to play these games with me if you lack the brains for it...
Have you considered that quite a bit of our males may be too old to fight?
You can't exactly blame 70 year old granpas with walking sticks for their unwillingness to go fight, and Polish demographics aren't super young to say it lightly.
However, 70 year old granpas absolutely do take part in polls.
Take away the chronically sick too and you get something along the lines of the overall wiki number (which defines fighting age as 16-49), and a conclusion similar to the WEI poll, so why do you even bother.
Of course, that is assuming that no polish women want to go fight at all, which is unlikely since about 7 percent of your military is female according to the wiki.IIRC you guys had quite a few female partizans and your waminz can be pretty ferocious given the few I have met in person. :D
>7%
Yeah, of course, but that's not going to be impactful in the grand scheme of things.
Also I'd wager that more people would be inclined to fight against M-Muskovvvv than to actually enlist.

So, less than half of your men really care enough to fight and over 30% of your population will run away, that is hardly an endorsement of your current confrontational policy.
Again, stop badly massaging data to make stupid points fitting your preconceived narrative.
Not wanting to fight =/= not wanting to help defend country (aka serve in support roles, something the WEI poll also asked specifically) =/= leaving.
I've linked a better poll, which you want to ignore, because it fucks up the narrative you want to push, that's the story here.
 

ATP

Well-known member
What makes you think that is possible? I'm not talking about Putin getting assasinated. I'm talking about the kids being returned. Like the Russians aren't Germans they don't meticulously record everything. what if Putin gets killed/couped and Russia can't find where most of the kids are. What then?
Germans never returned most of polish captured children after they lost and get occupied.
In case of postsoviets....maybe 10% would come back,if we would be lucky.
 

Agent23

Ни шагу назад!
What 40%, another number you pulled out of your ass?
It is called math.
If 50% of the polled are guaranteed to provide 0% of the people willing to fight then it means ther the other half accounts for all of the positive answers.
1/5 is 20%, 20*2 is 40%.

Dude, don't try to play these games with me if you lack the brains for it...
You just demonstrated you can't do simple arithmetic...
Have you considered that quite a bit of our males may be too old to fight?
You can't exactly blame 70 year old granpas with walking sticks for their unwillingness to go fight, and Polish demographics aren't super young to say it lightly.
However, 70 year old granpas absolutely do take part in polls.
Depends on the poll,and this poll is gouging willingness, not capability.
70 year old grandpaseill beat themselves on the chest and tell you they will gladly march on Muskal to kill that devil Stalin. :ROFLMAO:
Take away the chronically sick too and you get something along the lines of the overall wiki number (which defines fighting age as 16-49), and a conclusion similar to the WEI poll, so why do you even bother.
Again, the poll checks the willingness to fight, not the fitness.
And what percentage of the Polish population is chronically ill?
What percentage is over 70?
Your buddies in Ukraine are drafting people as old as 60, after all.
>7%
Yeah, of course, but that's not going to be impactful in the grand scheme of things.
Actually according to the wiki you have an army of 100 000 and over 7k females in it.

So at least 7-8% of your women are manlier than oh, 60-70% of your men.
Again, stop badly massaging data to make stupid points fitting your preconceived narrative.
Not wanting to fight =/= not wanting to help defend country (aka serve in support roles, something the WEI poll also asked specifically) =/= leaving.
Over 30% will leave outright.
Not leaving does not mean that the remainder thet is not willing to fight will all act in support roles.
I think that the 20% is about right.
I've linked a better poll, which you want to ignore, because it fucks up the narrative you want to push, that's the story here.
Sure, better because it is produced by a bunch of neocucks and conforms to your wishes. :ROFLMAO:
 

Marduk

Well-known member
Moderator
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It is called math.
If 50% of the polled are guaranteed to provide 0% of the people willing to fight then it means ther the other half accounts for all of the positive answers.
1/5 is 20%, 20*2 is 40%.


You just demonstrated you can't do simple arithmetic...
Stop playing an idiot, you know i meant your lack of correction for improper age groups saying no.

Depends on the poll,and this poll is gouging willingness, not capability.
70 year old grandpaseill beat themselves on the chest and tell you they will gladly march on Muskal to kill that devil Stalin. :ROFLMAO:
Your talent at dodging information inconvenient to the narrative you are trying to push by any means necessary, be it joke, laziness or pretending idiocy is touching, but won't get you anywhere.
You can assume that every old geezer gave a joke answer, but that's something else you're just making up and no one has any reason to not look upon it with disdain.
Again, the poll checks the willingness to fight, not the fitness.
And what percentage of the Polish population is chronically ill?
What percentage is over 70?
A poll measures the answers to the specific question asked among the sample group, not what you wish it measured. If the poll asks "would you fight if your country was invaded", it will get certain answers, and if the poll asks "would you fight if your country was invaded, if you're sick and/or old answer as if you were 30 year old and healthy" or "would you be willing to fight if your country was invaded, even if your current health doesn't allow you to" will give you a different set of answers. Absolutely nothing indicates that either your or my poll asked the latter variant of the question FYI.
The wiki article puts military fitness as ending at 49, while Polish draft law makes it 55 for non-officers/NCOs, but that's statistically minimal numbers.

So, assuming not much change since 2012, there's your answer:
Depending on which cut-off you take, it's 25% or 32% disqualified by old age.
The amount of disabled in qualified age group will not be that high and detailed data by age is hard to get, so lets not bother, because we already know enough.

Your buddies in Ukraine are drafting people as old as 60, after all.
Registers, not necessarily drafts. The common practice is that the military may take some particularly skilled or experienced people around that age, like, say, military surgeons or officers, but a 55 year old grunt probably won't get called up anyway even if he doesn't have a suitcase of medical problem documentation which at that age quite some will have.

Also reminder that Poland is not Ukraine, and something similar to the above is official policy in Poland - draft ends at 55 for the enlisted, but 63 for NCOs and officers with highly needed skills.
Actually according to the wiki you have an army of 100 000 and over 7k females in it.

So at least 7-8% of your women are manlier than oh, 60-70% of your men.
So, as i said, we know enough. Only 68% or so are not too old or sick, so outside of some jokers there's the absolute maximum for the yes section. Take away 90% or so of women, you're left with about 37% of population. According to your very general poll, 21% said yes, 21%/37% gives us about 56% of the relevant people.
The better poll i've found which breaks down specific questions and age groups gives an even better answer.

17% said "they are willing to fight in frontline combat" and another 49% of total population would be willing to help defend the country but not in frontline combat (so both military support roles or industrial/medical support), for a total of 66% being willing to help defend the country in some way or another.
So, you have a great demonstration how asking slightly different questions and breaking them down can make a poll give a totally different impression, aka basic statistical wizardry.
The closeness of 17% and 21% in different polls may in fact point at the worse poll getting confused answers due to the question being formed more generally, so people guessed what exactly was meant by the question and answered accordingly, spoiling the whole result.
wykres-ang.png


Over 30% will leave outright.
Not according to my link, and yours has no breakdown, so it may well be a total of leftists and women who are raising children, which would kinda add up and make perfect sense too.
Not leaving does not mean that the remainder thet is not willing to fight will all act in support roles.
I think that the 20% is about right.
Opinion discarded due to opinion's owner being full of shit.
Sure, better because it is produced by a bunch of neocucks and conforms to your wishes. :ROFLMAO:
At least they admit what questions they asked specifically and who answered how unlike in yours, where you fill in the blanks with convenient bullshit you made up in your head. I'll trust the biggest neocons over your bullshit lol.
 

Zachowon

The Army Life for me! The POG life for me!
Founder
Believe it or not, infantry make up a very small amount if the actual fighting forces if a country.
Support js where that mainly is
 

LordsFire

Internet Wizard
Believe it or not, infantry make up a very small amount if the actual fighting forces if a country.
Support js where that mainly is

I recall having read some time ago that in the modern day, the ratio of 'support' to 'frontline fighters' is about 10:1.

I don't remember where the number came from, but even if it's 3:1 instead of 10:1, 17% of your population being willing to be on the front lines is more than enough.
 
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