I didn't say it was a good plan, only something that Putin might do.
Russia-Ukraine War Political Discussion
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ParadiseLost
Well-known member
I am astounded that Putin thinks the solution to his failure to conquer a single European nation is to try and conquer two European nations.
Scooby Doo
Well-known member
His generals are smoking some serious shit.
mrttao
Well-known member
Ukraine is now heavily armed and supplied with western weapons. the surrounding nations are not. Nor are they trained in the use of such weapon systems. So even if they are given them, there will be a window of opportunity.
If he gets lucky, he blitzes them and cuts off Ukraine from resupply.
While also getting a large fresh batch of conscripts to bleed ukraine with
If he does not get lucky... he just forced the west to start preemptively arming all those surrounding nations. Instead of just ukraine. Yet those western nations are already having bulking at home at the cost. increase that cost by 10x to get all potential target nations? things could get dicey.
There is also potential for some of the surrounding nations who would get armed in that 2nd drive to have enough KGB agents to let him steal shipments of american weaponry.
And if he is really dying then he has nothing to lose anyways.
Overall, it sounds really dumb of him at first glance. But if you give it some thought, it can pay off.
ParadiseLost
Well-known member
Russia couldn't even blitz Ukraine, and they are gonna blitz Moldova?
A fresh batch of conscripts? From where? I'm sure people in the poorest country in Europe are just dying to go fight in a pointless war.
He doesn't have any other surrounding nations to arm. Moldova's only touchable because its outside of the EU, so an invasion doesn't start WWIII on the spot.
But you're right, he has little to lose. He's already going to remembered as the man who lead Russia out of the frying pan and into the fire. Russia started the twenty-first century struggling after the fall of the Soviet Union, and in 2022 Putin proved just how far they had fallen from relevance.
Hell, Russia has less GDP than Canada, with well over 3 times the people. They'll probably fall behind Australia soon.
mrttao
Well-known member
Conscripts don't actually get a choice.
And russia is quite experienced in making unwilling people fight.
This is why conscription is evil
You don't get it. Transnistria is surrounded by Moldova and Ukraine. If somehow they take much of Moldova, they get a border with NATO Romania. No serious way for Russia to send men or supplies. What next?
They are stuck out of supply, surrounded by hostile countries, while Ukraine, Moldova and Romania are making a deal for Ukrainian reserves to crush the very limited local force. If they didn't draft such a deal already just in case.
That would be something straight out of action movie scripts.
If Russia moves into Moldava, we'd have no choice but to move in. There is no way in hell Bucharest would tolerate a Russian naval force moving through our waters to land troops in Transnistria and Moldava.
We are talking a long stretch of basically river\canal route bordered from one side by Ukraine, and from the other by NATO... They may as well scrap ships instead of sending them there, less chance of an incident with NATO, less people dead as the ships get shot to shit by Ukrainian territorial defense and bored Harpoon crews, same effect.
mrttao
Well-known member
did you not read what you are replying to?
the premise was explicitly if the USA starts arming all the surrounding nations.
Putin might get stuff from one of those surrounding nations who he has his claws in. Not from Ukraine
Except the westbhas been arming all of these countries....
mrttao
Well-known member
This is news to me. Last I checked they were only arming Ukraine.
Got any source on that?
They certainly try to make the threatened countries stronger:
UK and allies discuss arming Moldova with ‘Nato standard’ weapons
Foreign secretary Liz Truss wants to protect the country south-west of Ukraine from Russia
www.theguardian.com
/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/DLF2KLKWDNNB3HB5MQZLFOYXHA.jpg)
Georgia, U.S. troops hold joint NATO drills in wet conditions near Tbilisi
Georgian and U.S. troops practised treating wounded soldiers in heavy rain on Wednesday as joint military drills between Georgia and NATO members were held at training areas close to the capital Tbilisi.
www.reuters.com
ANCA pressures President Biden to stop arming Azerbaijan as Artsakh gas crisis continues
WASHINGTON, DC – The Armenian National Committee of America (ANCA) has once again issued a national call to action urging President Joe Biden to enforce Section 907 restrictions and block all US arms and aid [...]
armenianweekly.com
Uh...F 35s are being sent to most of Europe.
Most of the small arms in use in Europe are made in Germany and Belgium....
Same with most of the tanks. Made in America France and Germany.
Literally most of the weapons used by countries around Maldova use either indinious or Western made weapons. Especially aircraft
99.8% certain.
Is that an assessment?
In a half assed way. Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if he sent Wagner in to there to create extra havoc and then leave the Wagner forces to die. Thus removing them from contention with the formal military forces, AND the added benefit of labeling them as a Rogue operation when Wagner inevitably goes, "Tuesday is War Crimes Day!"
I mean it is a pretty good one
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