The morons in the Kremlin are really going to try something in Moldova/Transnistria, aren't they.
99.8% certain.
In a half assed way. Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if he sent Wagner in to there to create extra havoc and then leave the Wagner forces to die. Thus removing them from contention with the formal military forces, AND the added benefit of labeling them as a Rogue operation when Wagner inevitably goes, "Tuesday is War Crimes Day!"
The Russians already destabilized Moldava. The only reason they haven't taken over completely is because Putin's generals took the core of trained soldiers and all the armor and weapons to Kherson against the Ukrainian offensive. What's left are the most incompetent fuckups and conscripts. With a semi competent FSB administrator for the province. Moldava had enough men to match the strength Transnistria had before it was stripped.I mean it is a pretty good one
There is a non zero chance they will leave Moldova alone.
The Moldavans have already started digging in against the border and mining everything. The generals are trying to mobilize what they can and civilians are already starting to leave.