Russia-Ukraine War Political Discussion

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The Polish government will as a buffer zone when Ukraine starts falling apart.
The whole buffer zone obsessed vision of geopolitics is a toy talking point of Kremlin that reasonable people smirk at with contempt.
Given that the fortifications and best troops of the Ukrainian army as all there, once it falls there is nothing stopping the Russians from exploiting to the Dnieper and beyond.
Implying that after 8 years of preparations (twice as much as whole WW1 lasted) they have only a single layer of fortifications there with no fallback lines.
 
I think Putin getting couped out and his replacement(s) offering terms is more likely if the Donbass front collapses.

Is that why the Ukrainians abandoned much of Lyman today and why Arestovich stated the following as well:

"We are in a difficult situation, and it will get worse"
"there may be encirclements, abandonment of positions, and heavy casualties"
"we are in for a tough month: depression, panic, and mutual accusations in society"

Clearly, the sign of a people winning. Just ask the 2,000 guys who surrendered at Azovstal recently lol.
 
Is that why the Ukrainians abandoned much of Lyman today and why Arestovich stated the following as well:

"We are in a difficult situation, and it will get worse"
"there may be encirclements, abandonment of positions, and heavy casualties"
"we are in for a tough month: depression, panic, and mutual accusations in society"

Clearly, the sign of a people winning. Just ask the 2,000 guys who surrendered at Azovstal recently lol.

Honestly Ukraine really has done fantastic, I mean Russia was rated as the second strongest army in the world for decades. Most experts expected them to last two weeks and that we would be in the irregular phase of the war by now. The fact that their doing as well as their doing is a fucking miracle.

Do I think they will win this? No I don't, Russians have a tolerance for pain that is extrodinary, in order to get russia to quit at least half a million russians have to die, and I'm not willing to bet on them being able to pull that off. We should be impressed they have done as well as they have. Real david and golaith story here but if they ultimently lose I will not be shocked.
 
Honestly Ukraine really has done fantastic, I mean Russia was rated as the second strongest army in the world for decades. Most experts expected them to last two weeks and that we would be in the irregular phase of the war by now. The fact that their doing as well as their doing is a fucking miracle.

Do I think they will win this? No I don't, Russians have a tolerance for pain that is extrodinary, in order to get russia to quit at least half a million russians have to die, and I'm not willing to bet on them being able to pull that off. We should be impressed they have done as well as they have. Real david and golaith story here but if they ultimently lose I will not be shocked.
The Russian Navy is already experiencing mutinies, and unit's from the LPR/DRP are refusing to be cannon fodder when they want to stay and 'rebuild' their little fiefs.

When the Russian navy start's to mutiny, that's when things can move very, very swiftly in many directions.

At this point, if the West plays it right, we can turn the Russian military back against the Kremlin simply by letting them bleed Russia till they cannot deny the truth.
 
The Russian Navy is already experiencing mutinies, and unit's from the LPR/DRP are refusing to be cannon fodder when they want to stay and 'rebuild' their little fiefs.

When the Russian navy start's to mutiny, that's when things can move very, very swiftly in many directions.

At this point, if the West plays it right, we can turn the Russian military back against the Kremlin simply by letting them bleed Russia till they cannot deny the truth.

the thing is Russia has gone through a lot worse then this, and continued fighting.

The russians tend to fight until they cant fight anymore. They had to get positively fucked in the crimian war before they gave up, and they had to get humilated in the russio japanese war, and during the world wars, and then afganistan. Like I said they have a deep tolerance for pain.

My money is that this war is either going to last for years, or Ukraine gets conquered and then Russia attacks some one else probally a nato member.
 
the thing is Russia has gone through a lot worse then this, and continued fighting.
The russians tend to fight until they cant fight anymore. They had to get positively fucked in the crimian war before they gave up, and they had to get humilated in the russio japanese war, and during the world wars, and then afganistan. Like I said they have a deep tolerance for pain.
My money is that this war is either going to last for years, or Ukraine gets conquered and then Russia attacks some one else probally a nato member.
The problem is that today's Russia is a wreck living in the corpse of the Soviet Union.
For them this war will be a really strong blow, each killed non-conscript from the village but each lost specialist is a blow from which they will not recover for a long time.

According to some Polish analysts, the reason why Russia did not fully mobilize is because Covid plowed through all 40+ reservists. Which destroyed the conscription system because they were supposed to be manning logistics and all the rest of the important functions.
Russia is simply stronger than pro-Ukrainians want to acknowledge but weaker than pro-Russians claim.

Everything really comes down to the will to fight, the war will not end until one side surrenders. And so far, the Ukrainians have no intention of surrendering, and they are far from doing so. Rather, every now and then we can hear constant voices of those who want to continue business as usual and those who are pro-Russian, telling Ukraine to surrender.
It's a pity that Ukraine will fight until the end and doesn't care about anyone's interests and desire to do business or some international order in which it is someone's toy because some clowns want to develop at its expense.
Ukrainians have been preparing for this for 8 years, for the worst scenario, they surely had to ask themselves how to fight with Russia, knowing perfectly well, and even better than anyone else, the stubbornness of Russians in pursuing their goals after dead bodies.

No less, the Ukrainians will not give in because peace, because something. The war seriously only lasts three months, war people generally last longer! The end is still far away, no one gives up after a few months. A long peace without a serious fight between relatively equal countries has distorted our sense of how long wars last.
These fights may last a while, maybe there will be a truce for a few months, but I doubt it now, but the war will last a few years. The way I see it now, it's going to last a while, today's Russia no longer has untold hordes of soldiers, and its stockpiled equipment was, stockpiled just so, as there hasn't been a decent guy for these 30 years, they probably need to refurbish and redo it first. If he even has the equipment there.
I would still hold off on saying Russia will win and conquer Ukraine. It should be remembered that the U.S. has invested heavily in Ukraine, and there is no shortage of people in the U.S. who have a personal interest in seeing Ukraine win because otherwise something bad will happen to them.

And more importantly, the point. You have to remember that Russian medical aid lags behind Ukrainian, so the Russians have more dead than wounded in their losses, while the Ukrainians conversely have more wounded than killed.
 
The whole buffer zone obsessed vision of geopolitics is a toy talking point of Kremlin that reasonable people smirk at with contempt.

Implying that after 8 years of preparations (twice as much as whole WW1 lasted) they have only a single layer of fortifications there with no fallback lines.

The entire donbass IS the layer. Layer upon layer of trenches and fortified towns 10s of km deep.
 
To be fair, isn't that basically what France did with the Maginot Line?
Nah, Maginot line was made of very fancy, expensive stuff, like artillery bunkers linked by underground tunnels. That of course has cut into the budget of other parts of the military. Not just earthworks backed by more earthworks.
 
Is that why the Ukrainians abandoned much of Lyman today and why Arestovich stated the following as well:

"We are in a difficult situation, and it will get worse"
"there may be encirclements, abandonment of positions, and heavy casualties"
"we are in for a tough month: depression, panic, and mutual accusations in society"

Clearly, the sign of a people winning. Just ask the 2,000 guys who surrendered at Azovstal recently lol.

Yes, and ask the Russians who retreated from the Kyiv offensive in disarray, only a few steps short of a route, losing scores of vehicles and hundreds/thousands of people in the chaos.

Ukraine has taken losses, and will continue to take losses. Russia has taken losses, and will continue to take losses.

The difference is that Russia still has not mobilized for a full war, and while Russia has deeper initial material reserves, the West has decided to throw a significant fraction of its military industry and stockpiles in support of the Ukrainians.

It does not matter how much pain Russians have historically been willing to accept in order to keep fighting (and notably most of the wars cited they lost), if they aren't even going to treat this like a full-up war, due to internal politics. If internal support for the war is so fragile that they can't openly call it a war, that says some very serious things about the will of the Russian people as a whole to fight.

Absurdities like a Russian government official calling the Moskva's sinking 'an act of war' while they have tens of thousands of soldiers fighting on Ukrainian soil says something about not just Russian will to fight, but about their competence at managing their war effort. Things that fit well with their constant, repeated screwups with basic tactical doctrine on the front lines.

The Ukrainians, on the other hand, have seen civilians butchered in the streets, open mass looting, and the Russian government talking about how Ukraine is a fake nation that shouldn't exist in the first place, and how it needs to be 'de-nazified.' From day one of the war they've shown a fierce will to fight, and with every atrocity committed by Russian soldiers, that will to fight will only grow stronger. And this is all before you get into the forced relocations Russians are reportedly carrying out to completely depopulate areas.

The only remotely short-term victory condition available to the Russians was 'take Kyiv,' and they didn't just fail at it, they failed miserably. They suffered repeated humiliating defeats in attempts to conduct airborne assaults, and devastating losses in their flubbed withdrawal.

Yes, they continue to take territory, and will probably continue to take territory for some time, in Eastern Ukraine. This is attrition warfare however, and all indications so far show that the Russians are taking worse losses by far, and so long as they do not fully mobilize, they don't even have a chance at winning that kind of attrition warfare.

Ukraine is not having a good time, they are suffering and will continue to suffer. The Russian military is having an even worse time, and unlike WWII, they aren't going to have the US shipping them millions of boots, thousands of trucks, and hundreds of train engines and cars to support their war effort.

And finally, the one hope Russia has of winning in spite of this, greenies suicidal forcing of dependence on Russian oil...


Is looking like it will fall down too. If Germany is willing to accept reality and stop subsidizing the Russian war effort with oil purchases, you can bet the rest of EU nations will fall in on that too, and that's the only serious leverage that Russia has over the west at this point.
 
According to some Polish analysts, the reason why Russia did not fully mobilize is because Covid plowed through all 40+ reservists. Which destroyed the conscription system because they were supposed to be manning logistics and all the rest of the important functions.

Wouldn't be surprised if it was the case. While the Russian official COVID death count is at 300,000+, excess deaths on the same period as COVID have passed 1,000,000 - they may have lost more to COVID than the USA, with some 40% of the population of the US.
 
An interesting article on the genesis of the war and what will possibly come after it.

The Road to the Russo-Ukrainian War

Why did Ukraine decide to keep its name after it separated from the Soviet Union? In Russian, Ukraina translates to “borderland,” which in and of itself says something about Russia’s paternalistic attitude towards the country. Linguistically, it’s the same in Polish—Ukrajina means “the borderland.” The elite in Kiev after independence could have revived the name Kyivan Rus, or Ruthenia, or come up with a new name altogether. They couldn’t possibly have come up with something less imaginative than all the -stan countries.

The choice to retain the name probably reflects an unconscious disposition—a silent confession from the region’s inhabitants that the country is what its name means: a borderland, a meeting point between various empires and kingdoms. Ukraine is ultimately located on a civilizational fault line, where East meets West, and has often suffered for it. Parts of it have been conquered intermittently by the Mongol Horde, the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, the Austro-Hungarian Empire, and the Russian Empire.
 
An interesting article on the genesis of the war and what will possibly come after it.

The Road to the Russo-Ukrainian War
Before reading this, i guessed its a whole lot of Russian apologia and talking points of the very boring and usual kind, and i wasn't disappointed. Boiling down to the fact that the west is mean and Russia was graciously offering to be friends with it for the low, low price of treating it like a superpower (barely) second only to USA and enforcing Russian empire sphere of influence for Russia by refusing any attempts of the semi-sovereign subjects of Russia to switch sides so that Russia doesn't need to dirty its hands doing that by the means it is stuck using now.
So the west is evil because it didn't volunteer to join the ranks of Kremlin's enforcers for the privilege of being its buddies...
And then the evil west asked them what the fuck they are drinking this time and why so much.
 
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Before reading this, i guessed its a whole lot of Russian apologia and talking points of the very boring and usual kind, and i wasn't disappointed. Boiling down to the fact that the west is mean and Russia was graciously offering to be friends with it for the low, low price of treating it like a superpower (barely) second only to USA and enforcing Russian empire sphere of influence for Russia by refusing any attempts of the semi-sovereign subjects of Russia to switch sides so that Russia doesn't need to dirty its hands doing that by the means it is stuck using now.
So the west is evil because it didn't volunteer to join the ranks of Kremlin's enforcers for the privilege of being its buddies...
And then the evil west asked them what the fuck they are drinking this time and why so much.

"Instead, the Ukrainian elite tried to simultaneously court both the EU/NATO and Russia’s Eurasian Union to secure favor, maintain rents and patronage streams, and—at an elite level—retain a hold on power. Over time, though, most of the country’s population and elite felt more inclined towards the West: it was richer, could provide security guarantees, and presented itself as the more aspirational cultural and civilizational model. Maybe so, but none of that can really make up for Ukraine’s geography and who its neighbor is. It would be like Mexico wanting to partner with China as an economic and state development partner while discounting American opinion on the matter. Ultimately, the Ukrainian inclination towards the West meant that the most important consideration—what must be done to ensure Ukrainian neutrality so as to not antagonize neither East nor West—was discarded."

So, I guess that this means that the Baltic countries' geography should have prevented them from integrating with the West, right? After all, their economies are even smaller in total than Ukraine's economy is, and they combined have much less people than Ukraine has. Ditto for Finland.
 
"By 2021, Moscow, especially Putin, was struck by what Germans call torchlusspanik—the fear that time is running out. International diplomacy did not bear fruit: attempting to link the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to the Ukrainian situation failed, as did efforts to uphold the Minsk II agreements, which would have returned the breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk to Ukraine in exchange for a greater Russian say on matters of Ukrainian domestic and foreign policy. Attempting to cut out the United States, considered by Moscow to be more belligerent than European actors, from the situation via the Normandy Format did not help either. Even as late as February 19, days before the war, it was obvious a compromise could not be reached. The Wall Street Journal reported that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz told Zelensky that “Ukraine should renounce its NATO aspirations and declare neutrality as part of a wider European security deal between the West and Russia.” Both Presidents Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin would sign on to this deal, with security guarantees towards Ukraine. Zelensky declined, citing that Putin couldn’t be trusted to keep his word."

To be fair, though, after Russia broke the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, why exactly should Ukraine trust Russia's word? And why exactly should Ukraine give a small region (less than 20% of its total population) veto power over its domestic and/or foreign policy? California doesn't have a veto over US domestic and foreign policy, after all.

"How the war will end is still to be determined. Judging from a now-redacted article from RIA Novosti, the Russian state news agency, along with how the initial Russian military strategy was executed, Putin likely expected Afghanistan-style rapid capitulation. Instead, what he got—at least of the time of this writing—was an extremely bloody war of attrition with no resolution in sight. Whether Russia will come out on top depends on whether it can take the port city of Odessa, through which around 75 percent of all Ukrainian sea exports—amounting to 22.5 percent of national GDP—pass through. If Russia can take the Ukrainian coast, it would be in a much better position to dictate terms to Kiev. Perhaps the Kremlin might even opt to try and keep the Black Sea coast, thereby turning the remainder of free Ukraine into a landlocked Western dependency and welfare case. Here, Russia, despite the formidable burdens leveled upon it through sanctions, would once again possess the necessary strength to retain its independence and count itself among the great powers of the world—for all that is worth."

If Ukraine will lose its entire Black Sea coast, then it could simply rely on Polish and Romanian ports instead. It wouldn't be the end of the world for Ukraine, even though it would obviously be more of a headache than the status quo is.
 
"Instead, the Ukrainian elite tried to simultaneously court both the EU/NATO and Russia’s Eurasian Union to secure favor, maintain rents and patronage streams, and—at an elite level—retain a hold on power. Over time, though, most of the country’s population and elite felt more inclined towards the West: it was richer, could provide security guarantees, and presented itself as the more aspirational cultural and civilizational model. Maybe so, but none of that can really make up for Ukraine’s geography and who its neighbor is. It would be like Mexico wanting to partner with China as an economic and state development partner while discounting American opinion on the matter. Ultimately, the Ukrainian inclination towards the West meant that the most important consideration—what must be done to ensure Ukrainian neutrality so as to not antagonize neither East nor West—was discarded."

So, I guess that this means that the Baltic countries' geography should have prevented them from integrating with the West, right? After all, their economies are even smaller in total than Ukraine's economy is, and they combined have much less people than Ukraine has. Ditto for Finland.
As i said, there is a big undertone of Kremlin line in this. For one Mexico can never be a proper analogy because China is far away from it, while Ukraine borders the EU and NATO as much as it borders Russia. Certain Pacific islands would be a closer analogy, and USA so far is not invading the ones getting buddy buddy with China.
Funny enough, by that logic Poland should be invading Belarus right now due to its distinctive lack of neutrality as a buffer state.
To be fair, though, after Russia broke the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, why exactly should Ukraine trust Russia's word? And why exactly should Ukraine give a small region (less than 20% of its total population) veto power over its domestic and/or foreign policy? California doesn't have a veto over US domestic and foreign policy, after all.
No, that's just the surface. Consider who and how supported and coordinated the whole separatism. This isn't about the region having veto power over the whole country's core elements of sovereignty. Its a foreign power having a veto power over a whole country's core elements of sovereignty while using an "autonomous" region whose administration they control as a fig leaf.
Or in other words, Russia refuses to accept not having some degree of ability to limit Ukraine's sovereignty as a country.
If Ukraine will lose its entire Black Sea coast, then it could simply rely on Polish and Romanian ports instead. It wouldn't be the end of the world for Ukraine, even though it would obviously be more of a headache than the status quo is.
Rebuilding the infrastructure to transport this stuff (we are talking tens of megatons a year here) would take a lot of time though, and the distance is much longer than to Black Sea aswell, so the economic calculation can change anyway, because any cargo loaded in Poland starts out in the Baltic Sea, and has to go around whole Europe to get to the Mediterranean Sea, through which it would normally go, usually to North Africa, Middle East or East Africa. More likely Ukraine's farming and the rest of economy would be pressed to start producing stuff the EU wants to buy.
Also in that timescale Romania's Black Sea ports are also a closer, more similar option.
 
As i said, there is a big undertone of Kremlin line in this. For one Mexico can never be a proper analogy because China is far away from it, while Ukraine borders the EU and NATO as much as it borders Russia. Certain Pacific islands would be a closer analogy, and USA so far is not invading the ones getting buddy buddy with China.

Well, the US did fight the Commies over Korea and Vietnam in the past, but even then, there were close US allies in the proximity as well: Japan, Thailand, the Philippines, Indonesia, et cetera.

Funny enough, by that logic Poland should be invading Belarus right now due to its distinctive lack of neutrality as a buffer state.

Yep. Russia wants neutrality for Ukraine but not neutrality for Belarus. And maybe Belarus should get expelled from the EEU since that's likewise incompatible with its neutrality?

No, that's just the surface. Consider who and how supported and coordinated the whole separatism. This isn't about the region having veto power over the whole country's core elements of sovereignty. Its a foreign power having a veto power over a whole country's core elements of sovereignty while using an "autonomous" region whose administration they control as a fig leaf.
Or in other words, Russia refuses to accept not having some degree of ability to limit Ukraine's sovereignty as a country.

Agreed.

Rebuilding the infrastructure to transport this stuff (we are talking tens of megatons a year here) would take a lot of time though, and the distance is much longer than to Black Sea aswell, so the economic calculation can change anyway, because any cargo loaded in Poland starts out in the Baltic Sea, and has to go around whole Europe to get to the Mediterranean Sea, through which it would normally go, usually to North Africa, Middle East or East Africa. More likely Ukraine's farming and the rest of economy would be pressed to start producing stuff the EU wants to buy.
Also in that timescale Romania's Black Sea ports are also a closer, more similar option.

Agreed about the time necessary to build up the necessary infrastructure for this. That said, though, in addition to Romanian ports, there are also Bulgarian and Turkish ports--and, further to the south, Greek ports as well. Though again, there would need to be a lot of investment in these ports to accomodate the increased demand for them. Still, it's possible to significantly expand ports over 10-20 years--Poland did so in Gdynia in the interwar era, after all.

And Yes, Ukraine will absolutely be producing much more stuff that the EU will need, assuming that it could actually do so at competitive prices.
 
Yes, and ask the Russians who retreated from the Kyiv offensive in disarray, only a few steps short of a route, losing scores of vehicles and hundreds/thousands of people in the chaos.

Ukraine has taken losses, and will continue to take losses. Russia has taken losses, and will continue to take losses.

I would ask them if this was the least bit true, but it's not.

The difference is that Russia still has not mobilized for a full war, and while Russia has deeper initial material reserves, the West has decided to throw a significant fraction of its military industry and stockpiles in support of the Ukrainians.

This is case in point of why I just feel sorry for you Ukie boosters, you literally have to delude yourselves into these obvious mental gymnastics with logical contradictions that don't make the least bit of sense when subjected to the barest amount of critical thinking. You concede the Russians are advancing and achieving territorial gains without a mobilization while the Ukrainians have went all out on mobilization; how exactly is that a sign of Ukrainian strength when even them going all out isn't enough to halt the Russians?

We could then dive into how the West has already exhausted its ability to materially supply them, how said supplies have entirely failed to halt the Russian advance, and then we can dive into what exactly does it mean for Russian chances when they are making gains without mobilization; if the Ukrainians do start to magically win, what happens when the Russians take their gloves off?

It does not matter how much pain Russians have historically been willing to accept in order to keep fighting (and notably most of the wars cited they lost), if they aren't even going to treat this like a full-up war, due to internal politics. If internal support for the war is so fragile that they can't openly call it a war, that says some very serious things about the will of the Russian people as a whole to fight.

As is often the case, the Ukrainian partisans like you are either Anti Russian to the point of being bigots or so woefully misinformed that you really shouldn't be commenting until you actually read up on the situation. Case in point that immediately stands out to me is claiming they lost most of their wars; that's not true at all and you can figure that out with a simple google search. Case in point is how Russia has won six of the nine insurgencies its faced from the 20th Century on; how many has the United States won in that same timeframe?

Specific to the claims here, the universal evidence is there's nothing to support what you're saying here. Russian polling firms, including opposition ones, show majority support for the war; Western politicians agree. That the Russians haven't resorted to general mobilization isn't a sign of weakness anymore than the United States having failed to do so in any of its conflicts since WWII. We didn't do a general mobilization in Korea or the Gulf War, did we? Was that because internal support was lacking? Or, just like Moscow, there was economic considerations at play for Washington?

Absurdities like a Russian government official calling the Moskva's sinking 'an act of war' while they have tens of thousands of soldiers fighting on Ukrainian soil says something about not just Russian will to fight, but about their competence at managing their war effort. Things that fit well with their constant, repeated screwups with basic tactical doctrine on the front lines.

Go ask the Ukies getting their asses kicked at Lyman, Severodonetsk and Mariupol how well this line of thinking is going.

The Ukrainians, on the other hand, have seen civilians butchered in the streets, open mass looting, and the Russian government talking about how Ukraine is a fake nation that shouldn't exist in the first place, and how it needs to be 'de-nazified.' From day one of the war they've shown a fierce will to fight, and with every atrocity committed by Russian soldiers, that will to fight will only grow stronger. And this is all before you get into the forced relocations Russians are reportedly carrying out to completely depopulate areas.

Meanwhile in reality:

Ukrainian forces have succeeded in thwarting Russian efforts to seize Kyiv and Kharkiv and have scored battlefield victories in the east. But the experience of Lapko and his group of volunteers offers a rare and more realistic portrait of the conflict and Ukraine’s struggle to halt the Russian advance in parts of Donbas. Ukraine, like Russia, has provided scant information about deaths, injuries or losses of military equipment. But after three months of war, this company of 120 men is down to 54 because of deaths, injuries and desertions.
The volunteers were civilians before Russia invaded on Feb. 24, and they never expected to be dispatched to one of the most dangerous front lines in eastern Ukraine. They quickly found themselves in the crosshairs of war, feeling abandoned by their military superiors and struggling to survive.​
“Our command takes no responsibility,” Lapko said. “They only take credit for our achievements. They give us no support.”​
When they could take it no longer, Lapko and his top lieutenant, Vitaliy Khrus, retreated with members of their company this week to a hotel away from the front. There, both men spoke to The Washington Post on the record, knowing they could face a court-martial and time in military prison.​
The volunteers’ battalion commander, Ihor Kisileichuk, did not respond to calls or written questions from The Post in time for publication, but he sent a terse message late Thursday saying: “Without this commander, the unit protects our land,” in an apparent reference to Lapko. A Ukrainian military spokesman declined immediate comment, saying it would take “days” to provide a response.​
“War breaks people down,” said Serhiy Haidai, head of the regional war administration in Luhansk province, acknowledging many volunteers were not properly trained because Ukrainian authorities did not expect Russia to invade. But he maintained that all soldiers are taken care of: “They have enough medical supplies and food. The only thing is there are people that aren’t ready to fight.”​
But Lapko and Khrus’s concerns were echoed recently by a platoon of the 115th Brigade 3rd Battalion, based nearby in the besieged city of Severodonetsk. In a video uploaded to Telegram on May 24, and confirmed as authentic by an aide to Haidai, volunteers said they will no longer fight because they lacked proper weapons, rear support and military leadership.
“We are being sent to certain death,” said a volunteer, reading from a prepared script, adding that a similar video was filmed by members of the 115th Brigade 1st Battalion. “We are not alone like this, we are many.”​

Poorly trained conscripts and volunteers, not being fed and giving up the fight with associated mass desertions taking place. Stop drinking the Kool Aid and you'll begin to realize you're living in a fairy tale.

The only remotely short-term victory condition available to the Russians was 'take Kyiv,' and they didn't just fail at it, they failed miserably. They suffered repeated humiliating defeats in attempts to conduct airborne assaults, and devastating losses in their flubbed withdrawal.

Except, again, this isn't backed up by any evidence beyond Twitter boosters. I absolutely love how willing people like you are content to be with the same people you bemoan in every other circumstance.

Yes, they continue to take territory, and will probably continue to take territory for some time, in Eastern Ukraine. This is attrition warfare however, and all indications so far show that the Russians are taking worse losses by far, and so long as they do not fully mobilize, they don't even have a chance at winning that kind of attrition warfare.

Is that why BBC investigations of Russian KIA found they had losses well below the Ukrainian official losses? Again, you're so drunk on the Kool Aid you have to contort yourself into the logical disconnect of saying the Russians can't survive attritional warfare despite the fact you've conceded they're taking territory without needing to do a general mobilization. How are they taking the territory in the first place? If we accept your fairy tale, what happens when Russia mobilizes its larger industrial and manpower base?

This war ends with total defeat of Ukraine, no matter what.

Ukraine is not having a good time, they are suffering and will continue to suffer. The Russian military is having an even worse time, and unlike WWII, they aren't going to have the US shipping them millions of boots, thousands of trucks, and hundreds of train engines and cars to support their war effort.

Probably a good thing, given the recent U.S. track record of losing to Pashtun tribesmen while the Russians, who have a larger industrial base than the United States, are advancing steadily and collapsing the Ukrainian Army.

And finally, the one hope Russia has of winning in spite of this, greenies suicidal forcing of dependence on Russian oil...


Is looking like it will fall down too. If Germany is willing to accept reality and stop subsidizing the Russian war effort with oil purchases, you can bet the rest of EU nations will fall in on that too, and that's the only serious leverage that Russia has over the west at this point.

Again, it's either bigotry or ignorance. How much of Russian GDP is derived from oil sales? 11%, and this includes all customers, including China who signed $100 Billion+ agreement back in January. How much of Russian GDP is from industry? 35%. Russian can easily survive the loss of oil exports to Europe, but can Europe survive the loss of 40% of its energy sources? They, themselves, admit no.

Kinda hollows out your claim about the Western Lend Lease all on its own, no?
 
I would ask them if this was the least bit true, but it's not.



This is case in point of why I just feel sorry for you Ukie boosters, you literally have to delude yourselves into these obvious mental gymnastics with logical contradictions that don't make the least bit of sense when subjected to the barest amount of critical thinking. You concede the Russians are advancing and achieving territorial gains without a mobilization while the Ukrainians have went all out on mobilization; how exactly is that a sign of Ukrainian strength when even them going all out isn't enough to halt the Russians?

We could then dive into how the West has already exhausted its ability to materially supply them, how said supplies have entirely failed to halt the Russian advance, and then we can dive into what exactly does it mean for Russian chances when they are making gains without mobilization; if the Ukrainians do start to magically win, what happens when the Russians take their gloves off?



As is often the case, the Ukrainian partisans like you are either Anti Russian to the point of being bigots or so woefully misinformed that you really shouldn't be commenting until you actually read up on the situation. Case in point that immediately stands out to me is claiming they lost most of their wars; that's not true at all and you can figure that out with a simple google search. Case in point is how Russia has won six of the nine insurgencies its faced from the 20th Century on; how many has the United States won in that same timeframe?

Specific to the claims here, the universal evidence is there's nothing to support what you're saying here. Russian polling firms, including opposition ones, show majority support for the war; Western politicians agree. That the Russians haven't resorted to general mobilization isn't a sign of weakness anymore than the United States having failed to do so in any of its conflicts since WWII. We didn't do a general mobilization in Korea or the Gulf War, did we? Was that because internal support was lacking? Or, just like Moscow, there was economic considerations at play for Washington?



Go ask the Ukies getting their asses kicked at Lyman, Severodonetsk and Mariupol how well this line of thinking is going.



Meanwhile in reality:

Ukrainian forces have succeeded in thwarting Russian efforts to seize Kyiv and Kharkiv and have scored battlefield victories in the east. But the experience of Lapko and his group of volunteers offers a rare and more realistic portrait of the conflict and Ukraine’s struggle to halt the Russian advance in parts of Donbas. Ukraine, like Russia, has provided scant information about deaths, injuries or losses of military equipment. But after three months of war, this company of 120 men is down to 54 because of deaths, injuries and desertions.
The volunteers were civilians before Russia invaded on Feb. 24, and they never expected to be dispatched to one of the most dangerous front lines in eastern Ukraine. They quickly found themselves in the crosshairs of war, feeling abandoned by their military superiors and struggling to survive.​
“Our command takes no responsibility,” Lapko said. “They only take credit for our achievements. They give us no support.”​
When they could take it no longer, Lapko and his top lieutenant, Vitaliy Khrus, retreated with members of their company this week to a hotel away from the front. There, both men spoke to The Washington Post on the record, knowing they could face a court-martial and time in military prison.​
The volunteers’ battalion commander, Ihor Kisileichuk, did not respond to calls or written questions from The Post in time for publication, but he sent a terse message late Thursday saying: “Without this commander, the unit protects our land,” in an apparent reference to Lapko. A Ukrainian military spokesman declined immediate comment, saying it would take “days” to provide a response.​
“War breaks people down,” said Serhiy Haidai, head of the regional war administration in Luhansk province, acknowledging many volunteers were not properly trained because Ukrainian authorities did not expect Russia to invade. But he maintained that all soldiers are taken care of: “They have enough medical supplies and food. The only thing is there are people that aren’t ready to fight.”​
But Lapko and Khrus’s concerns were echoed recently by a platoon of the 115th Brigade 3rd Battalion, based nearby in the besieged city of Severodonetsk. In a video uploaded to Telegram on May 24, and confirmed as authentic by an aide to Haidai, volunteers said they will no longer fight because they lacked proper weapons, rear support and military leadership.
“We are being sent to certain death,” said a volunteer, reading from a prepared script, adding that a similar video was filmed by members of the 115th Brigade 1st Battalion. “We are not alone like this, we are many.”​

Poorly trained conscripts and volunteers, not being fed and giving up the fight with associated mass desertions taking place. Stop drinking the Kool Aid and you'll begin to realize you're living in a fairy tale.



Except, again, this isn't backed up by any evidence beyond Twitter boosters. I absolutely love how willing people like you are content to be with the same people you bemoan in every other circumstance.



Is that why BBC investigations of Russian KIA found they had losses well below the Ukrainian official losses? Again, you're so drunk on the Kool Aid you have to contort yourself into the logical disconnect of saying the Russians can't survive attritional warfare despite the fact you've conceded they're taking territory without needing to do a general mobilization. How are they taking the territory in the first place? If we accept your fairy tale, what happens when Russia mobilizes its larger industrial and manpower base?

This war ends with total defeat of Ukraine, no matter what.



Probably a good thing, given the recent U.S. track record of losing to Pashtun tribesmen while the Russians, who have a larger industrial base than the United States, are advancing steadily and collapsing the Ukrainian Army.



Again, it's either bigotry or ignorance. How much of Russian GDP is derived from oil sales? 11%, and this includes all customers, including China who signed $100 Billion+ agreement back in January. How much of Russian GDP is from industry? 35%. Russian can easily survive the loss of oil exports to Europe, but can Europe survive the loss of 40% of its energy sources? They, themselves, admit no.

Kinda hollows out your claim about the Western Lend Lease all on its own, no?
1.They widraw leaving hundrets destroyed vechicles.
2.Ukraine do not mobilized,too.And all Moscov could take was one town.If they advance as fast ,they would take rest of Donbass till end of the year.
When,if they mobilized,Kiev would be arleady theirs.So,either they are unable to mobilize ,or do not want win.
3.Russia was murdered by soviets.And we face KHB now,not some russian ghosts.Soviets which either could not win,or do not want to win.
4.Taking ruins of Marjunpol after 3 months is no sign of competence,but weakness.And kgbstan still lost Moscov in most stupid way.
5.If that is true,then kgbstan is even more incopetent - they lost battle of Kiev to deserters.And where are "russian" volunteers from Moscov and other big cities? yes,they want Ukraine genocided - but,without them risking their hides.
6.Moscov claimed in the beginning then they are going to denazify entire Ukraine,and that they would take Kiev.They failed.
Maybe they failed intentionally to kill their own army,but - Kiev is still free.
7.This war should end in Ukraine defeat 2 months ago.Either Moscov is unable to win,or they have some secret agreement to have long bloody war instead.
8.Moscov is advancing? then why Kiev still stand? And industral base unable to build tanks without parts from West is no industral base,but third world.
9.If UE used coal and modern polish or japaneese methods for turning it into oil,we would not need Moscov at all.
Unfortunatelly,germans are Putin allies,they would keep paying him for genociding ukrainians.
But,as long as USA pay Ukraine,they would hold.
 
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You have one take, from one specific unit.

Let's see how many sources I can easily pony up on the Russians getting shellacked?

Artillery strike on Russian positions as they're pushed back near Chuhuiv.

Disastrous Russian attempt at a river crossing near Bilohorivka. Postive IDs on a minimum of 90 military vehicles lost, likely end count will be 100-150. This happened ~3 weeks ago. Still shots of the wreckage of same

A generally useful map of the war in action. Note that there is no longer a front by Kyiv or Chernihiv. Because the Russians were driven all the way back across the border. The Russians are advancing on the eastern front, but they were crushed on the western; keeping both fronts in mind gives a much more balanced image of the war.
Russian APC hit by ATGM fire. [/URL] Tank getting hit. Another.
Another vehicle hit.
Another.
Three destroyed Russian AFVs.
Russian supply convoy ambush, footage from a drone.
Russian base hit by Ukrainian artillery.
Russian ammo dump hit by Ukraiian artillery.
Some Russian SPGs destroyed, claimed by counter-battery fire.

I could go on, and on, and on, because there's hundreds of images and videos of Russian hardware getting destroyed. There is not equivalent volume of video of Ukrainian hardware being destroyed. This isn't merely stuff 'Ukrainian government claims' either, this is material from a broad base of sources (such as the famous videos of Ukrainian farmers hauling tanks and other AFVs away with tractors), that has been evaluated by a broad variety of people around the world for validity and location.

You get things like this:

A resource created by independent parties on the internet, showing confirmed locations of various footage and still shots. Have a look around, see what you find.

In the end, I'm pretty confident none of this will convince you. Why?

This war ends with total defeat of Ukraine, no matter what.

This is a religious statement. It's not just 'Things look bad for the Ukrainians,' it's not just 'Russians have overwhelming advantages,' it's a 'no matter what.'

You have placed your faith in the Russians winning.

I, on the other hand, think it's entirely possible either side could win. I think the Russians are less likely to win, due to the sheer will to fight that the Ukrainians are demonstrating, but that's far from being certain.

Also, I am making a note that you've claimed Russian total victory will happen, as of May 31st 2022. I'm going to expect you to be eating crow at least on the 'total' part some time down the line, possibly on the 'victory' part too.
 
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