Russia(gate/bot) Russia-Ukraine War Political Discussion

[Bacle]

Um, fuck no do you do this. This isn't some new invasion: Russia's held this land since 1945. Honestly, at this point, it's Russian territory, like it or not.

If WW3 is coming anyway, as it seems, why not let the one nation to ever actually scare the Ruskie's be the one at the tip of the eastern spear and for a legit reason?

Russia's claims on the Kuril Islands is less legit than their claims to the Donbass, and maybe someone annexing some of Moscow's illegit holdings that belong to our ally would get Russia to final realize it does not get to push the rest of Eurasia or the world around.

The west has never really recognized the Russian claims over those islands, and Japan has never recognized the Russian occupation of those islands.

Give Russia a taste of it's own medicine, and see if the Bear will toss Putin from it's back in anger.

 

[Agent23]

With what Russia is doing in Ukraine, I'd be fully onboard Tokyo sending an ultimatum to Moscow "Remove your troops from our Northern Territories, or we will remove them by force."

The fact Russia still hasn't signed the WW2 peace treaty and returned those islands to Japan is absurd on so many levels.

The only reason that those islands were temporarily Japanese was the Russo-Japanese war of 1904.

 

[Arch Dornan]

No, it was about a claim that Poland started saying that Kalingrad was theirs. I've heard and seen nothing about Poland trying to slice off parts of Ukraine.

I did. Just not in this forum. I didn't know where Kalingrad is so I assumed it was in Ukraine.

 

[Arch Dornan]

MSN

White House says Biden is not calling for regime change in Russia

U.S. President Joe Biden was not calling for regime change in Russia when he said on Saturday that Russian President Vladimir Putin "cannot remain in power," a White House official said.

www.reuters.com

Speaking the quiet part out why don't you?

 

[Abhorsen]

If WW3 is coming anyway, as it seems, why not let the one nation to ever actually scare the Ruskie's be the one at the tip of the eastern spear and for a legit reason?

Russia's claims on the Kuril Islands is less legit than their claims to the Donbass, and maybe someone annexing some of Moscow's illegit holdings that belong to our ally would get Russia to final realize it does not get to push the rest of Eurasia or the world around.

The west has never really recognized the Russian claims over those islands, and Japan has never recognized the Russian occupation of those islands.

Give Russia a taste of it's own medicine, and see if the Bear will toss Putin from it's back in anger.

Um, no. Their claims to the Kuril islands is pretty legit. They've been there for 70 years, the Yalta agreement promised it to them, there was just a dispute over where the Kuril islands ended.

This isn't China's made up islands in the South China Sea.

And second, stop treating WW3 like it's inevitable. WTF?

And third, war is bad, mkay? Actual people die, this isn't Red Alert where the people are just numbers on a computer screen. Maybe stop advocating for it over some random islands that haven't been Japanese for 3/4's of a century. So very little is actually worth war.

 

[BlackDragon98]

Um, no. Their claims to the Kuril islands is pretty legit. They've been there for 70 years, the Yalta agreement promised it to them, there was just a dispute over where the Kuril islands ended.

This isn't China's made up islands in the South China Sea.

And second, stop treating WW3 like it's inevitable. WTF?

And third, war is bad, mkay? Actual people die, this isn't Red Alert where the people are just numbers on a computer screen. Maybe stop advocating for it over some random islands that haven't been Japanese for 3/4's of a century. So very little is actually worth war.

There are some rumblings of oil exploration in the area.

And we all know what that means.

 

[Bacle]

MSN

White House says Biden is not calling for regime change in Russia

U.S. President Joe Biden was not calling for regime change in Russia when he said on Saturday that Russian President Vladimir Putin "cannot remain in power," a White House official said.

www.reuters.com

Speaking the quiet part out why don't you?

Wait, did you actually read the article.

It says he cannot 'remain in power' of his neighbors, not regime change in Russia itself.

It's trying to thread a think needle that does not back Putin into a personal corner in terms or remaining in power, while making it clear he won't be allowed to take chunks off NATO.

Um, no. Their claims to the Kuril islands is pretty legit. They've been there for 70 years, the Yalta agreement promised it to them, there was just a dispute over where the Kuril islands ended.

This isn't China's made up islands in the South China Sea.

And second, stop treating WW3 like it's inevitable. WTF?

And third, war is bad, mkay? Actual people die, this isn't Red Alert where the people are just numbers on a computer screen. Maybe stop advocating for it over some random islands that haven't been Japanese for 3/4's of a century. So very little is actually worth war.

Look, the fact is I doubted WW3 was coming for a while, because I didn't want it either. But I'm not sure it can be averted anymore, not with what Putin is doing, and the noise around Russia wanting to make a move on the Baltic's and Poland as part of their 'denazification operation.

However, maybe we can have it happen on our terms, and hope maybe a fight over the Kuril's would humiliate Russia enough, without actually harming their heartland infrastructure or cultural sites, and might cause them to call off any action against the Baltics or Poland, because now they are tied up on another front, with a non-NATO power who is still one of the best military's on the planet.

Also, let's be real, not that many people willing to volunteer to go to Ukraine to fight and possibly die; not quite the same with Japan. A literal expeditionary force of weebs with all the tech and weapons Japan has is not impossible, and the frankly Russia's navy, outside the Status-6, is rather lackluster.

Even the threat of such an attempt might cause Russia to reconsider whether they want to move on the Baltic's and Poland, because now they would be actively engaged in either defending those islands. Which are in range of a lot of stand-off weapons.

Saying Russian forces can cross the straight back to the Russian territory on their RHIB's, but that any military equipment will be bombed if it is seen or treatens the Japanese liberation forces, leaves them an out for minimal causalities.

Even just using this idea seriously might put enough pressure on Putin to make better terms for Ukraine, and attempt to restore talks with Japan.

 

[Abhorsen]

Look, the fact is I doubted WW3 was coming for a while, because I didn't want it either. But I'm not sure it can be averted anymore, not with what Putin is doing, and the noise around Russia wanting to make a move on the Baltic's and Poland as part of their 'denazification operation.

However, maybe we can have it happen on our terms, and hope maybe a fight over the Kuril's would humiliate Russia enough, without actually harming their heartland infrastructure or cultural sites, and might cause them to call off any action against the Baltics or Poland, because now they are tied up on another front, with a non-NATO power who is still one of the best military's on the planet.

Also, let's be real, not that many people willing to volunteer to go to Ukraine to fight and possibly die; not quite the same with Japan. A literal expeditionary force of weebs with all the tech and weapons Japan has is not impossible, and the frankly Russia's navy, outside the Status-6, is rather lackluster.

Even the threat of such an attempt might cause Russia to reconsider whether they want to move on the Baltic's and Poland, because now they would be actively engaged in either defending those islands. Which are in range of a lot of stand-off weapons.

Saying Russian forces can cross the straight back to the Russian territory on their RHIB's, but that any military equipment will be bombed if it is seen or treatens the Japanese liberation forces, leaves them an out for minimal causalities.

Even just using this idea seriously might put enough pressure on Putin to make better terms for Ukraine, and attempt to restore talks with Japan.

Christ this is dumb.

"I'm not sure if we can avoid WW3, so let's guarantee it happens". Look, let's be quite clear, if the US and Russia fight, nukes will happen. No other way about it. You are competing for the dumbest post on the-sietch right now.

 

[Arch Dornan]

Wait, did you actually read the article.

It says he cannot 'remain in power' of his neighbors, not regime change in Russia itself.

It's trying to thread a think needle that does not back Putin into a personal corner in terms or remaining in power, while making it clear he won't be allowed to take chunks off NATO.

No I didn't.

 

[Agent23]

Christ this is dumb.

"I'm not sure if we can avoid WW3, so let's guarantee it happens". Look, let's be quite clear, if the US and Russia fight, nukes will happen. No other way about it. You are competing for the dumbest post on the-sietch right now.

Russia has stated directly that they will use nukes if their territorial integrity is threatened, that integrity includes the Kurils, that is literally a clause in their constitution.
Some people around here must really, really hate weebs.
Also, if Japan is the aggressor, well, I don't think that most of the rest of the world will care if Tokyo gets nuked.

 

[Zachowon]

Russia has stated directly that they will use nukes if their territorial integrity is threatened, that integrity includes the Kurils, that is literally a clause in their constitution.
Some people around here must really, really hate weebs.
Also, if Japan is the aggressor, well, I don't think that most of the rest of the world will care if Tokyo gets nuked.

Nah, Japan is liked by to many.
Thr US also has a defense treaty woth them so.
The US will nuke back.

Wait, did you actually read the article.

It says he cannot 'remain in power' of his neighbors, not regime change in Russia itself.

It's trying to thread a think needle that does not back Putin into a personal corner in terms or remaining in power, while making it clear he won't be allowed to take chunks off NATO.
Look, the fact is I doubted WW3 was coming for a while, because I didn't want it either. But I'm not sure it can be averted anymore, not with what Putin is doing, and the noise around Russia wanting to make a move on the Baltic's and Poland as part of their 'denazification operation.

However, maybe we can have it happen on our terms, and hope maybe a fight over the Kuril's would humiliate Russia enough, without actually harming their heartland infrastructure or cultural sites, and might cause them to call off any action against the Baltics or Poland, because now they are tied up on another front, with a non-NATO power who is still one of the best military's on the planet.

Also, let's be real, not that many people willing to volunteer to go to Ukraine to fight and possibly die; not quite the same with Japan. A literal expeditionary force of weebs with all the tech and weapons Japan has is not impossible, and the frankly Russia's navy, outside the Status-6, is rather lackluster.

Even the threat of such an attempt might cause Russia to reconsider whether they want to move on the Baltic's and Poland, because now they would be actively engaged in either defending those islands. Which are in range of a lot of stand-off weapons.

Saying Russian forces can cross the straight back to the Russian territory on their RHIB's, but that any military equipment will be bombed if it is seen or treatens the Japanese liberation forces, leaves them an out for minimal causalities.

Even just using this idea seriously might put enough pressure on Putin to make better terms for Ukraine, and attempt to restore talks with Japan.

Your starting to sound like me

 

[Bacle]

Christ this is dumb.

"I'm not sure if we can avoid WW3, so let's guarantee it happens". Look, let's be quite clear, if the US and Russia fight, nukes will happen. No other way about it. You are competing for the dumbest post on the-sietch right now.

They might.

Which is also why we leave the Russians the option of withdrawing troops, or seeing military hardware removed by force.

I didn't want something like this to become what might be a 'least bad option' but the world we live in today is such a clusterfuck it might actually be one of the least bad possibilities.

Even the notion of threatening to retake the islands by force might be enough to bog down Moscow, because the amount of local firepower the JSDF can bring far outweighs what Russia can bring short of nukes.

And Russia is unlikely to start tossing strategic nukes over the Kuril's; that is a fight where they might be used against naval formations or beachheads if Russia really goes stupid, but are unlikely to be tossed at any nation's homeland.

It's about forcing a cost-benefit analysis on Moscow where the pain is enough to humiliate, but not enough to endanger the function of the state, and where there is a low/no causality out. Using nuke's over the Kuril's, and harming the local fisheries, might also piss off North Korea and China, not just the west.

It can also be used as a carrot-n-stick with Ukraine. Unless Russia wants a 2-front conflict, it'll either give the islands back to Japan or withdraw from Ukraine. If it wants to fight for those islands, it'll also be doing so while something like 60% of it's conventional forces are tied up in Ukraine getting Bayaktar'd and Javelin'd.

If Putin makes a play for the Baltics, like they've been talking about a bit in Russia recently, then we probably won't avoid nukes flying as is.

A fight over the Kuril's however is small scale and localized enough maybe the conflict could be kept non-nuclear, and might cause Russia to reevaluate if it actually has the forces to take the Baltics, keep fighting in Ukraine, and possibly be engaged in the Far East as well.

Nah, Japan is liked by to many.
Thr US also has a defense treaty woth them so.
The US will nuke back.


Your starting to sound like me

Let's just that if that's the case, it's because I have little hope of WW3 being averted anymore, and am having to figure out how to make it as bloodless and short as possible.

Best way to do that is try to have the fight happen in such a way it does not endanger any major powers homelands or nuclear arsenals, but helps settle some of the issues that have been lingering on.

If we can contain WW3 to 2 fronts in Ukraine and possibly the Kuril's, instead of nuclear devastation of good chunks of the planet, that is a win in my book.

 

[The Immortal Watch Dog]

Japan going apeshit on Asia is one way to deal with the Chinese problem.

It also sets us up to contend with a theocratic superpower that at its nastiest made ISIS look like a bunch of fucking Jesuits. Who thinks they aren't really homosapiens but the bastard children of a Sun Goddess who gave them the world to rule should they wish it.

Ie it solves a problem by creating another potentially worse one.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Nah, Japan is liked by to many.
Thr US also has a defense treaty woth them so.
The US will nuke back.

Plus AFAIK Russia doesn't actually have a "Nuclear Clause" in its Constitution over its Territorial Integrity. One of the 2020 Constitutional Amendments states that it forbids Russia from giving up its territory to a foreign power but nothing about nuclear retaliation for it. Also Putin signed a decree that Russia would only use nuclear weapons in response to a nuclear attack (which is normal) OR if the existence of Russia is otherwise threatened which on the face of it can be taken extremely broadly... or more likely extremely narrowly.

19. The conditions specifying the possibility of nuclear weapons use by the Russian Federation are as follows:

a) arrival of reliable data on a launch of ballistic missiles attacking the territory of the Russian Federation and/or its allies;

b) use of nuclear weapons or other types of weapons of mass destruction by an adversary against the Russian Federation and/or its allies;

c) attack by an adversary against critical governmental or military sites of the Russian Federation, disruption of which would undermine nuclear forces response actions;

d) aggression against the Russian Federation with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is in jeopardy.

 

[Abhorsen]

They might.

Which is also why we leave the Russians the option of withdrawing troops, or seeing military hardware removed by force.

I didn't want something like this to become what might be a 'least bad option' but the world we live in today is such a clusterfuck it might actually be one of the least bad possibilities.

First, declaring war over the Kurils is morally wrong. It's wrong to declare war to grab territory (make no mistake, that's what this is). You are condemning thousands to die over a couple of islands. It's just a shitty thing to do. Those people are real. They have families. They have mothers, fathers, and many have wives and daughters as well. You want them to die to paint the map a prettier color. It's disgusting.

And then we get to the stupidity. If you think that guaranteed war with Russia is the least bad option, I'm just happy you aren't in control of anything. Like I said, there have been many, many, stupid things said on this site. So many. I've had to deal with some of them as a mod. I want you to know that this is one of them. Everytime I hear your opinion now, it will come in my mind with the disclaimer: "Well, he also though war with Russia was a good idea."

 

[Bacle]

First, declaring war over the Kurils is morally wrong. It's wrong to declare war to grab territory (make no mistake, that's what this is). You are condemning thousands to die over a couple of islands. It's just a shitty thing to do. Those people are real. They have families. They have mothers, fathers, and many have wives and daughters as well. You want them to die to paint the map a prettier color. It's disgusting.

And then we get to the stupidity. If you think that guaranteed war with Russia is the least bad option, I'm just happy you aren't in control of anything. Like I said, there have been many, many, stupid things said on this site. So many. I've had to deal with some of them as a mod. I want you to know that this is one of them. Everytime I hear your opinion now, it will come in my mind with the disclaimer: "Well, he also though war with Russia was a good idea."

Oh please, this is far from the stupidest thing here, and Russia is already talking about expanding their 'DeNazification Operation' to include the Baltic's and Poland.

If you think admitting there is a great possibility for WW3 to happen, and that maybe there are ways it could happen, or be averted, via even the notion Japan would be willing to retake the Kuril's by force, I admire your optimism, but don't share it.

Frankly I hope I'm wrong and there is a way to avert WW3 without actually engaging Russia in direct combat with NATO or other US allies directly.

However, I can at least admit when I'm wrong, and I was wrong that there wouldn't be an attack on Ukraine.

Now I have to operate under the assumption Russia is serious about actually making a grab at the Baltics and Poland, to secure a corridor to Kaliningrad if nothing else.

Because Shuigo is MIA with a 'heart attack', and with how erractic Putin has proved to be, how weak the US looks with Biden in charge, and how Russia has been able to get India and even the Saudi's to a degree to go along because of OPEC...making a push for the Kuril's, or even floating the idea, is now a realistic counter to Russian territorial ambitions and a wake-up call to Moscow that they are not going to immune from the rules they decide to play by.

It wasn't Japan that walked away from negotiations over that treaty, which should have been sorted out decades ago, but because Russia didn't want the US to have any possibility of putting their bases on said islands, which we could if they were Japanese territory, which is precisely why Russia has never gotten truly serious about signing that treaty.

I didn't ask the world to go nuts to the point this is now a realistic counter to Russian ambitions in the Baltics and Poland, but it is not the worst scenario out there either. It still gives Russia a bloodless way out and maybe an off-ramp for Ukraine.

Playing nice doesn't work with Russia, the events of the past month have proven that beyond a shadow of a doubt; they only respect strength and the will to use it.

 

[ParadiseLost]

Um, no. Their claims to the Kuril islands is pretty legit. They've been there for 70 years, the Yalta agreement promised it to them, there was just a dispute over where the Kuril islands ended.

The Kuril Islands have been traditionally inhabited by the Ainu people, who are close to the Japanese and generally associated with Japan.

Its at least as legit as Russia's claim to Ukraine.

Having said this, there's no way Russia could conventionally defeat the Japanese military based on what we are seeing in Ukraine... but I doubt Japan wants a war, it needs its men (and women) to make babies, not fight wars.

Japan going apeshit on Asia is one way to deal with the Chinese problem.

It also sets us up to contend with a theocratic superpower that at its nastiest made ISIS look like a bunch of fucking Jesuits. Who thinks they aren't really homosapiens but the bastard children of a Sun Goddess who gave them the world to rule should they wish it.

Ie it solves a problem by creating another potentially worse one.

Dude, this isn't the 1940s, Japan has been pretty chill for a while, and is probably the most loyal ally the US has.

@Bacle Any supposed "play for the Baltics" by Russia is just propaganda.

Also, let's be real, not that many people willing to volunteer to go to Ukraine to fight and possibly die; not quite the same with Japan. A literal expeditionary force of weebs with all the tech and weapons Japan has is not impossible, and the frankly Russia's navy, outside the Status-6, is rather lackluster.

Even the threat of such an attempt might cause Russia to reconsider whether they want to move on the Baltic's and Poland, because now they would be actively engaged in either defending those islands. Which are in range of a lot of stand-off weapons.

Japan establishing a Japanese Foreign Legion of weebs to go Neo-Imperialist on Russia and East Asia isn't the weirdest thing that's ever happened historically, but it would have us really going full circle as a species.

 

[Floridaman]

The Kuril Islands have been traditionally inhabited by the Ainu people, who are close to the Japanese and generally associated with Japan.

Its at least as legit as Russia's claim to Ukraine.

Having said this, there's no way Russia could conventionally defeat the Japanese military based on what we are seeing in Ukraine... but I doubt Japan wants a war, it needs its men (and women) to make babies, not fight wars.



Dude, this isn't the 1940s, Japan has been pretty chill for a while, and is probably the most loyal ally the US has.

@Bacle Any supposed "play for the Baltics" by Russia is just propaganda.



Japan establishing a Japanese Foreign Legion of weebs to go Neo-Imperialist on Russia and East Asia isn't the weirdest thing that's ever happened historically, but it would have us really going full circle as a species.

You do realize most of the Japanese populace is in one city right, in a war with them Russia isn’t going to be doing what they are now aka playing with kid gloves, they would do to Tokyo what we did to it, aka the grave of fireflies treatment only thing is now most of the populace lives there

 

[Floridaman]

I’m sorry..... polish claims? That is freaking Konigsberg aka Prussia.

 

[TheRejectionist]

The situation in Italy.

Apparently Italians have (still) more fear for the Islamic faith than Putin's bomb.

The 2 per cent military budget increase SEEMS to NOT HAVE HAPPENED YET.

So much SO that apparently Conte, former PM and leader of the M5S, is proposing an internal party plebiscite to kick out foreign Minister Di Maio, also 5 Star Movement.

Because of the sanctions against Russian Federation 1 in 3 agriculture companies risk CLOSURE.

From my superficial reading through the newspaper mainstream propaganda, even supporters of the government seem to start to get fed up with Mario Draghi's war.