Russia-Ukraine War Political Discussion

[Agent23]

They could learn Polish. And they could use English in the meantime.

Cope some more, they are mouths to feed, will be so for years, and the situation will get worse once their aged relatives join them.
Yeah, the somewhat more realistic parts of the Eurocracy and the western European power elites and business people are probably sharpening their knives for Poland right about now.
Poland's shenanigans led to them losing a major market and cheap energy access, and I am pretty sure Macron and the business elite in Germany would like nothing better than to yeet Poland out of the EU.
It is not gonna be because of this though, oh no, it will be something about gay rights, or the rule of law, or some other scandal, maybe somebody will even goad them into going into part of Ukraine and taking it, then the entirety of Europe will start reeing about Polish aggression and expansionism.

Actually, I have a better idea, ship all Ukrainians that moved to the EU as refugees to the USA, since they are responsible for this mess.

 

[Agent23]

Fukuyama wrote his book at the end of the cold war during a time of international jubilation. I give him a pass based on that.

You mean at the same time when Huntington wrote "Clash of civilizations" and at the same time when Kennan was bemoaning the stupidity of unipolar overconfidence where Russia was concerned, as well as other, purely domestic US follies and when Kissinger published "Diplomacy"?
Sorry, dude, but that sheltered neocon has much stupidity to atone for
The ass actually backtracked massively when he wrote the two Political Order books, which are a better read, but even there he manages to produce tons of whataboutism and "but this time it is going to be different".
There were serious concerns over the stupidity of US-centric unipolarity, even at its height, which was the 90s.
Sure, you could fool some people with that shit and the idea that it might be perpetual, especially if they grew up in the 90s, but a serious academic that is supposed to study this shit - sorry, hell no, Fukuyama was a hack that is trying to reform himself, I will give him a B- for effort and for doing some actual research for the Political order duology, which was supposed to be a trilogy, but meh, whatever.

 

[Abhorsen]

So good news about wheat, largely thanks to the free market working:

So Ukraine + Russia produce 25% of wheat exports, not total world wheat. Most wheat is produced domestically. The export loss is going to be about .9% of the worlds wheat. But on top of that, people noticed the chaos starting to happen months ago when deciding to plant, and so the price of wheat futures raised, which meant that the US planted and extra 4 million tons worth of wheat and India went all out. So overall, not a huge issue, and already compensated for.

 

[Agent23]

So good news about wheat, largely thanks to the free market working:

So Ukraine + Russia produce 25% of wheat exports, not total world wheat. Most wheat is produced domestically. The export loss is going to be about .9% of the worlds wheat. But on top of that, people noticed the chaos starting to happen months ago when deciding to plant, and so the price of wheat futures raised, which meant that the US planted and extra 4 million tons worth of wheat and India went all out. So overall, not a huge issue, and already compensated for.

Tell that to Africa if they suffer famine because of this.
Also, that doesn't account for fertilizer and the gas that is required for fertilizer production.

Also, planting X more of a given crop doesn't guarantee you will get X more next season, you might get less, depending on land quality, fertilizer availability, and weather.

Wheat Production by Country 2024

Top 10 Wheat Producing Countries (in tons of wheat produced 2020)*

1. China — 134,254,710
2. India — 107,590,000
3. Russia — 85,896,326
4. United States — 49,690,680
5. Canada — 35,183,000
6. France — 30,144,110
7. Pakistan — 25,247,511
8. Ukraine — 24,912,350
9. Germany — 22,172,100
10. Turkey — 20,500,000

Also, with more expensive fertilizer and fuel, and close to 10% inflation in the USA, and massive bottlenecks in supply chains I think that some parts of the world are still in for food price shocks.

How much more expensive is it to ship dry bulk cargo from the USA to Somalia, than from a port on the Black Sea, for example, and you still have higher labor costs in places like Western Europe and North America.

EDIT:

I do believe that the US midwest is the primary US breadbasket?
Or maybe they grow corn, not all that familiar with US agriculture, tbh:

Drought Status Update for the Midwest | June 10, 2021 | Drought.gov

NIDIS and its partners will issue further drought status updates as conditions evolve.

www.drought.gov

Severe Drought Expansion and Heat Concerns in the Upper Midwest

Key Points

• Severe drought (D2) has expanded across the Upper Midwest, now affecting portions of Michigan, Wisconsin, northern Illinois, Iowa, and Minnesota. Moderate to severe drought (D1-D2) covers 70% of Michigan, 57% of Iowa, 46% of Minnesota, 34% of Wisconsin, and 9% of Illinois. Overall, 27% of the Midwest region is in drought.
• 
  
• Drought impacts are beginning to intensify in the Upper Midwest, including wildfire risk, water supply concerns for agriculture, municipalities, and landscaping, and crop stress due to a lack of soil moisture. Municipal water supply concerns are impacting western and central Iowa, where drought has been an issue since summer 2020.
• 
  
• NOAA’s short-term outlook for June 18-24 calls for a continuation of hot and dry conditions across the Midwest, which will continue to dry soils and make drought issues persist or potentially worsen across the Upper Midwest.
• 
  
• Summer outlooks (June-August) are leaning slightly towards the potential for above-normal temperatures. With this potential for extreme heat and the current water deficits, it is likely that drought conditions will persist throughout summer. Existing drought issues like increased fire risk, inadequate soil moisture and increased stress for crops and landscapes, and limitations for municipal water supply are expected to continue in drought-affected areas.

27% of the Midwest is in drought, with 6% in severe drought, so what does that mean for crops?
Does anyone have a rundown on irrigation and possible crop yields in the area.
Canda is having the same problems.
The free market can not magically make wheat grow faster, or make it sprout in a desert.
Canadian Drought Monitor - agriculture.canada.ca
Yeah, you can do vertical gardens, and irrigation, but that will all cost, and setting up the infrastructure and the logistics will also take time.
Then again, multiple people think that milk and bread come "from the store" or "from the warehouse" nowadays, and that magically stuff will just pop into existence for them to buy.
Some dumb brats here even thought that there are literal purple Milka cows that somehow produce chocolate.

 

[ATP]

Cope some more, they are mouths to feed, will be so for years, and the situation will get worse once their aged relatives join them.
Yeah, the somewhat more realistic parts of the Eurocracy and the western European power elites and business people are probably sharpening their knives for Poland right about now.
Poland's shenanigans led to them losing a major market and cheap energy access, and I am pretty sure Macron and the business elite in Germany would like nothing better than to yeet Poland out of the EU.
It is not gonna be because of this though, oh no, it will be something about gay rights, or the rule of law, or some other scandal, maybe somebody will even goad them into going into part of Ukraine and taking it, then the entirety of Europe will start reeing about Polish aggression and expansionism.

Actually, I have a better idea, ship all Ukrainians that moved to the EU as refugees to the USA, since they are responsible for this mess.

You naive child.
UE is owned by germans,France do not matter.And THEY WONTED POLAND HERE TO MADE US THEIR COLONY.
So,they would never let us go,their economy would not live without us in UE.
But - we should use that occasion to go away and be free again.Problem is - ruling socialist support UE,too....

P.S kgbstan started war,and USA are responsible? what kind of logic do you use?
But,if my theory is right,and Putin made deal with Biden handlers,you are right - dems could have chance to win election,and Putin could kill his army so they do not made putch and save Mother Russia.

Win-win for everybody except ukrainians and russian army,but you could not made happy all people !

 

[Abhorsen]

Tell that to Africa if they suffer famine because of this.
Also, that doesn't account for fertilizer and the gas that is required for fertilizer production.

Also, planting X more of a given crop doesn't guarantee you will get X more next season, you might get less, depending on land quality, fertilizer availability, and weather.

Okay, so quickly a) Africa won't get a famine because of this, that's the whole point of the post. It's been compensated for, b) I know, I wasn't talking about fertilizer or gas, I was talking about wheat, and c) no, but that is actually how one compensates for this, and given it isn't all being produced in one place, we should be mostly fine.

27% of the Midwest is in drought, with 6% in severe drought, so what does that mean for crops?
Does anyone have a rundown on irrigation and possible crop yields in the area.
Canda is having the same problems.
The free market can not magically make wheat grow faster, or make it sprout in a desert.
Canadian Drought Monitor - agriculture.canada.ca
Yeah, you can do vertical gardens, and irrigation, but that will all cost, and setting up the infrastructure and the logistics will also take time.
Then again, multiple people think that milk and bread come "from the store" or "from the warehouse" nowadays, and that magically stuff will just pop into existence for them to buy.
Some dumb brats here even thought that there are literal purple Milka cows that somehow produce chocolate.

Yeah, note the talk about june. Winter wheat will have been harvested by then. And a drought in the US isn't going to affect India either. On top of that, people who buy wheat futures have already taken into account droughts, which means that the prices have adjusted for them, which means that people will produce more to counter that as well.

Basically, .9% of the worlds wheat not happening isn't good, but isn't going to cause a collapse, and has been compensated for.


Also, lol, Russia basically admitted it can't take Kyiv:

Russia says it will sharply cut military activity near Kyiv, Chernihiv

Russia said on Tuesday it would sharply scale back military activity around Ukraine's capital Kyiv and the northern city of Chernihiv, in the most tangible sign yet of progress towards a peace deal.

www.reuters.com

Don't mistake this as a move towards peace, though. My guess is that they want to move supplies to focus more on the Eastern Ukraine situation.

 

[Agent23]

India and China do not export much agricultural produce,since they need to feed their own populations, as I said, the primary focus is Africa and the Middle east, and the impending 2nd Arab spring we will have on our hands with food and fuel prices skyrocketing.
Also I thought the midwest was covered in snow and pretty cold in winter, and even if you plant before winter you'd still need to wait until spring for the more cold resistant strains of wheat to sprout and grow?

What strains of wheat do you grow over there and when are your harvest seasons?

Don't mistake this as a move towards peace, though. My guess is that they want to move supplies to focus more on the Eastern Ukraine situation.

Also, their stated objective always was to take out the Ukrainian army in the Donbass region as well as Azov.

And as @Chiron mentioned, the Ukrainians are out of fuel and their economy is pretty much toast.

They can mop up the rest of the East and maybe take the south before they deal with Kiev, if they want to deal with it at all.

 

[Bacle]

India and China do not export much agricultural produce,since they need to feed their own populations, as I said, the primary focus is Africa and the Middle east, and the impending 2nd Arab spring we will have on our hands with food and fuel prices skyrocketing.
Also I thought the midwest was covered in snow and pretty cold in winter, and even if you plant before winter you'd still need to wait until spring for the more cold resistant strains of wheat to sprout and grow?

What strains of wheat do you grow over there and when are your harvest seasons?

Have you just really not heard of 'winter wheat' before?

It's cold tolerant wheat that is grown in large amount in the colder, more marginal bits of the Great Plains, and is a large part of the US's normal wheat supply.

What Makes Winter Wheat a “Winter Wheat”?

For most of us wheat is wheat; however there is a distinct difference between spring and winter wheat, even though the vegetative characteristics of these two wheat types are very similar. Winter wheat can withstand freezing temperatures for extended periods of time during the early vegetative...

extension.sdstate.edu

It effectively allows the US to have two wheat crops per year.

 

[bintananth]

Also I thought the midwest was covered in snow and pretty cold in winter, and even if you plant before winter you'd still need to wait until spring for the more cold resistant strains of wheat to sprout and grow?

It's not. In Indianapolis snow rarely sticks before Christmas and all of the US except for Alaska is closer to the equator than Prague.

In terms of latitude Indianapolis, Madrid, and Rome are about the same. Chicago and Sophia have similar latitudes.

 

[Agent23]

It's not. In Indianapolis snow rarely sticks before Christmas and all of the US except for Alaska is closer to the equator than Prague.

I am closer to the Equator than Prague, that doesn't mean my ass doesn't freeze off most winters.
43rd parallel splits the place in two right the middle, and that passes through Corsica and northern Spain.

 

[bintananth]

I am closer to the Equator than Prague, that doesn't mean my ass doesn't freeze off most winters.
43rd parallel splits the place in two right the middle, and that passes through Corsica and northern Spain.

Winter for you and I both suck.

According to ASHRAE '89* weather data Indianapolis, IN is 3F hotter and muggier (92/74 v. 89/71)** than Sophia, Bulgaria during the summer both cities hit 2°F or lower at least once during the winter.

We live in similar shitty climates.


* I keep a copy of that engineering manual in my car.
** dry bulb/wet bulb °F

 

[Agent23]

Have you just really not heard of 'winter wheat' before?

It's cold tolerant wheat that is grown in large amount in the colder, more marginal bits of the Great Plains, and is a large part of the US's normal wheat supply.

What Makes Winter Wheat a “Winter Wheat”?

For most of us wheat is wheat; however there is a distinct difference between spring and winter wheat, even though the vegetative characteristics of these two wheat types are very similar. Winter wheat can withstand freezing temperatures for extended periods of time during the early vegetative...

extension.sdstate.edu

It effectively allows the US to have two wheat crops per year.

What exactly makes you think that I am an agronomist?

The only edible plants I have planted are potatoes and "garden plants" such as tomatoes, cabbages, cucumbers, and peppers, those you plant in spring/early summer, usually.
I know that grain usually "winters over" then sprouts, and that there are various kinds, including ones that grow faster.My area is not really all that flat and you will mostly find small plots of potatoes, vegetables, and lots of sheep and goats, occasionally there are fields of sunflower, because that is what the EU is subsidizing for the past few years, not that you'd believe it if you see where sunflower oil prices were going.

 

[Bacle]

What exactly makes you think that I am an agronomist?

The only edible plants I have planted are potatoes and "garden plants" such as tomatoes, cabbages, cucumbers, and peppers, those you plant in spring/early summer, usually.
I know that grain usually "winters over" then sprouts, and that there are various kinds, including ones that grow faster.My area is not really all that flat and you will mostly find small plots of potatoes, vegetables, and lots of sheep and goats, occasionally there are fields of sunflower, because that is what the EU is subsidizing for the past few years, not that you'd believe it if you see where sunflower oil prices were going.

You complained a lot about the wheat situation as it relates to Russia going full retard over Ukraine, acting like situation meant massive amounts of the world's wheat supply was now cut off, and acted like the 'limited' planting season for wheat started in the spring.

You are such a shill/copenik for Russia that you don't do any further research or investigation into their claims or the stuff round them; if you weren't, you might have taken a few minutes to look further into the actual situation facing wheat growers around the world and what Russia's idiocy actually meant for the world's wheat supplies.

 

[Agent23]

You complained a lot about the wheat situation as it relates to Russia going full retard over Ukraine, acting like situation meant massive amounts of the world's wheat supply was now cut off, and acted like the 'limited' planting season for wheat started in the spring.

Notice the other chart I posted, with the top wheat exporters.
What I am worried about is a food crisis in the developing world, particularly Africa and South-east asia, you know, like the one that brought us our first Arab Spring.
And the war, refugee waves, and further disruption we would have.
Even if the USA can take up the slack, which I am skeptical about as Russia produces almost 2x the wheat, then it will still be more expensive to ship it to Africa because of labor costs, port capacity, and more expensive fuel.
And don't get me started on the fertilizer situation.

So, yeah, we are in deep shit, all because of the US stete department's moronic meddling and NATO's expansionism.

 

[Bacle]

Notice the other chart I posted, with the top wheat exporters.
What I am worried about is a food crisis in the developing world, particularly Africa and South-east asia, you know, like the one that brought us our first Arab Spring.
And the war, refugee waves, and further disruption we would have.
Even if the USA can take up the slack, which I am skeptical about as Russia produces almost 2x the wheat, then it will still be more expensive to ship it to Africa because of labor costs, port capacity, and more expensive fuel.
And don't get me started on the fertilizer situation.

So, yeah, we are in deep shit, all because of the US stete department's moronic meddling and NATO's expansionism.

Nice dodge, trying to pretend you still have a point when your claim has been debunked several times, despite claiming all sorts of knowledge on a subject initially.

Same thing happened with the convo over potash; you ree'd about supply issues, acted like a bigger deal than it is, and then tried to dodge when I showed you that your view of potash supplies mostly coming from Russia was skewed/incorrect.

You are a copenik, an open shill for Putin/Russia, and will never admit that this situation is Russia's fault, For all the US's fuck-up related to Ukraine, and they are many, it was Putin who decided to send tanks into Ukraine and it was Putin who completely misjudged how much the West would be willing to back Ukraine.

It is also not the US or West that caused you and your countrymen to leave yourselves dependent on Russian money for your economy and Russian supplies for your agriculture. Your purchasing power evaporating is on Russia for going full retard, and on your own nation for remaining dependent on Russia after what happened in 2014.

 

[Abhorsen]

Notice the other chart I posted, with the top wheat exporters.
What I am worried about is a food crisis in the developing world, particularly Africa and South-east asia, you know, like the one that brought us our first Arab Spring.
And the war, refugee waves, and further disruption we would have.
Even if the USA can take up the slack, which I am skeptical about as Russia produces almost 2x the wheat, then it will still be more expensive to ship it to Africa because of labor costs, port capacity, and more expensive fuel.
And don't get me started on the fertilizer situation.

So, yeah, we are in deep shit, all because of the US stete department's moronic meddling and NATO's expansionism.

No, no one is in deep shit, and the invasion is directly Putin's fault if we are to lay blame. His invasion is morally wrong.

Because of the wonders of international trade, African countries don't care where the grain comes from. But since Ukraine doesn't seem likely to export, instead it's being replaced by other countries hoping to make a profit. That's the magic of capitalism at work.

And the invasion is Putin's fault. He had no obligation to invade, but needed to look tough. If anyone is going to be blamed, it's him. Yes, NATO was pressing his buttons, but that's ultimately a him problem, not something he morally gets to invade another country over.

 

[Agent23]

No, no one is in deep shit, and the invasion is directly Putin's fault if we are to lay blame. His invasion is morally wrong.

Because of the wonders of international trade, African countries don't care where the grain comes from. But since Ukraine doesn't seem likely to export, instead it's being replaced by other countries hoping to make a profit. That's the magic of capitalism at work.

We will have to see if that assumption actually pans put, maybe in 6 months or a year.

And the invasion is Putin's fault. He had no obligation to invade, but needed to look tough. If anyone is going to be blamed, it's him. Yes, NATO was pressing his buttons, but that's ultimately a him problem, not something he morally gets to invade another country over.

Sure, sure, like the USA wouldn't invade Mexico if it started hosting Chinese military bases and started repressing pro-American groups and Americans living within its territory and began calling Americans cockroaches.

Forget the Virgin Locke and embrace the Chad Hobbes, at least where international relations are concerned.

 

[LordsFire]

Sure, sure, like the USA wouldn't invade Mexico if it started hosting Chinese military bases and started repressing pro-American groups and Americans living within its territory and began calling Americans cockroaches.

Okay, so where are these NATO bases in Ukraine?

Where's the treaty signed to build them?

Or even for Ukraine to join NATO?

 

[Agent23]

Okay, so where are these NATO bases in Ukraine?

Where's the treaty signed to build them?

Or even for Ukraine to join NATO?

They wold have come eventually,after the USA got them into NATO, meanwhile, they were actually training the Ukrainian military in NATO tactics.

Oh, look,two RINO neocucks telling Ukraine to go out and kill people in Donbass:

Victoria Nuland: "Fuck the EU",also Yats is her pick for president.

Euromaidan was a US backed coup.
The coup forces had among their number neonazis and oligarch-paid thugs, those people got into power.
Ukraine agreed to give the Donbass autonomy as per the Minsk accords but never implemented them and continued to attack Russians and Russian-speakers.
The pro-coup,pro-USA neonazi thugs of the regime murdered 16 000 people in Donbass.
Putin prevented a genocide by attacking.

 

[History Learner]

Okay, so where are these NATO bases in Ukraine?

Where's the treaty signed to build them?

Or even for Ukraine to join NATO?

You mean places like the Ukrainian PfP Training Centre in Lvov, helpfully listed on the NATO website even? As for Ukrainian NATO membership, you mean like the open invitation to it in 2008 during the Bucharest Summit?