Russia(gate/bot) Russia-Ukraine War Political Discussion

[Bacle]

 

[DarthOne]

HMMMM.

 

[Abhorsen]

https://news.yahoo.com/russia-orders-urgent-purchase-large-155000834.html?guccounter=1

Russia also seems to have made a large purchase of iodine pills lately, and there are rumors of them distributing NBC gear and iodine pills to their troops near Kherson.


I've also seen talk elsewhere that Russia may attempt a...'grey zone' nuke blast at high-alt over Ukraine for the EMP effects, more than the blast damage, gambling that a blast with no fallout to fall on NATO and minimal blast damage to the ground might scare people off and 'level the playing field' without provoking a full MAD-exchange.

Russia's conventional military has been shown to be so pathetic, and the Ukrainians determined and skilled enough with the aid coming in, that a 'de-escalating/grey zone' nuclear response might be the only real option Putin and his people feel they have left to salvage the situation strategically and domestically.

The iodine pills are honestly pretty innocent: we all remember the fiasco with Russians taking Chernobyl.

As for the pipeline, from what I've heard, the water was pretty shallow (about 50 meters deep or so). So I suspect most states nearby could do it, and the only ones really out of suspicion is Russia, Germany, and I think a few of the Scandinavian countries also get some gas through that (though I could be wrong). I'd definitely suspect both the US and Poland though, with a very small chance it's ecoterrorists. I don't expect them to be caught either unless they are ecoterrorists.

 

[Bacle]

The iodine pills are honestly pretty innocent: we all remember the fiasco with Russians taking Chernobyl.

As for the pipeline, from what I've heard, the water was pretty shallow (about 50 meters deep or so). So I suspect most states nearby could do it, and the only ones really out of suspicion is Russia, Germany, and I think a few of the Scandinavian countries also get some gas through that (though I could be wrong). I'd definitely suspect both the US and Poland though, with a very small chance it's ecoterrorists. I don't expect them to be caught either unless they are ecoterrorists.

Russia is far from out of suspicion, and have every incentive to try to cause rifts in NATO, while the US has very little to gain by blowing those pipes, when economic actions/sanctions were rendering the pipeline rather useless to Russia in the long run, because of the backlash if discovered would undermine the united front against Russia.

The US didn't need to physically blow the pipes to made NS1/2 non-viable in the long run, and Russia has every incentive to try to cause internal issues for NATO while also having motives that would make it better for them to be able to say 'we cannot fulfill these last contracts due to the blasts'.

 

[Abhorsen]

Russia is far from out of suspicion, and have every incentive to try to cause rifts in NATO, while the US has very little to gain by blowing those pipes, when economic actions/sanctions were rendering the pipeline rather useless to Russia in the long run, because of the backlash if discovered would undermine the united front against Russia.

The US didn't need to physically blow the pipes to made NS1/2 non-viable in the long run, and Russia has every incentive to try to cause internal issues for NATO while also having motives that would make it better for them to be able to say 'we cannot fulfill these last contracts due to the blasts'.

Yeah, that doesn't add up. Let's look at what Russia gets vs what it loses:
It gets

• maybe some German government suspicion vs NATO

It risks

• War with NATO

It loses

• Leverage over Germany
• Germany having internal strife against the government for not giving into Russia, especially during winter where I assure you someone will die from the cold (not because of anything special, but a single person dying of cold during the winter seems very likely any winter in a country of millions that gets cold).
• A possible revenue stream that they really, really want.
• Having to repair it afterwards, which is expensive.

That list of loses and risks is way too high to be Russia. The losses, especially eliminating future strife on the wedge issue of Nordstream, is way worse than the gains they would get.

Now the US doing this? They gain a ton (everything in the Russian loss column, basically), along with

• Bringing Germany further under the US's control and away from Russia through supplying energy.

They do risk NATO, however, unless... The German government okay'd it, so that they don't risk political instability.


And honestly, the risk of getting caught is astronomically small. It's a decent sized sea, and all you'd need would be be a small boat to get out there with a few divers and munitions.

So no, I'd say Russia's the least likely suspect here. I don't think you are getting what a big positive thing this is for NATO, whoever did it. This basically secures the German government (number 2 or 3 in economic power in NATO) against internal strife on supporting Ukraine. This is a huge positive for them.

 

[Bassoe]

And honestly, the risk of getting caught is astronomically small.

Especially since even if proof was found, the media wouldn't cover the story.

 

[Bacle]

Yeah, that doesn't add up. Let's look at what Russia gets vs what it loses:
It gets

• maybe some German government suspicion vs NATO

It risks

• War with NATO

It loses

• Leverage over Germany
• Germany having internal strife against the government for not giving into Russia, especially during winter where I assure you someone will die from the cold (not because of anything special, but a single person dying of cold during the winter seems very likely any winter in a country of millions that gets cold).
• A possible revenue stream that they really, really want.
• Having to repair it afterwards, which is expensive.

That list of loses and risks is way too high to be Russia. The losses, especially eliminating future strife on the wedge issue of Nordstream, is way worse than the gains they would get.

Now the US doing this? They gain a ton (everything in the Russian loss column, basically), along with

• Bringing Germany further under the US's control and away from Russia through supplying energy.

They do risk NATO, however, unless... The German government okay'd it, so that they don't risk political instability.


And honestly, the risk of getting caught is astronomically small. It's a decent sized sea, and all you'd need would be be a small boat to get out there with a few divers and munitions.

So no, I'd say Russia's the least likely suspect here. I don't think you are getting what a big positive thing this is for NATO, whoever did it. This basically secures the German government (number 2 or 3 in economic power in NATO) against internal strife on supporting Ukraine. This is a huge positive for them.

Your argument fails to account for the fact that Germany didn't need more gas from those pipes, thanks to bulking up their reserves after Russia invaded Ukraine in anticipation of the gas supplies being completely cut by Russia. The 'Germany is hostage to Russian gas' narrative helps the Russians fearmonger, but the govs involved have/had already taken a lot of steps to remove that leverage from Russian control/find alternatve sources while buuilding up reserves for winter.

It also massively downplays the risks to NATO the US runs if we had done this, and ignores that the US was already on the way to removing NS1/2 as politically or economically viable in the long term, thus did not need to physically damage the pipes to remove their influence.

Russia is getting desperate due to the losses and the domestic situation unraveling, so them trying to sow the seeds of rifts inside NATO and maybe distract people in the Baltics from supporting Ukraine for a bit, is seems quite possible.

 

[Zachowon]

Russia trying to sow distrust between NATO is key, make them fight themselves

 

[Abhorsen]

It also massively downplays the risks to NATO the US runs if we had done this, and ignores that the US was already on the way to removing NS1/2 as politically or economically viable in the long term, thus did not need to physically damage the pipes to remove their influence.

The consequences from the US getting caught doing it w/o German permission are much less than the Russian consequences. The US at worst blows up its major alliance. Really, really bad, but we're still the US, it's not an existential threat. Russia? That's war with NATO baby. Have fun.

Note also that the risk (i.e. % chance of being caught) is incredibly low for any country with any sort of access to the Baltic Sea, plus the US (as we have a bunch of soldiers stationed around there, and thus undoubtedly CIA assets nearby if needed). The supplies needed is a small boat, explosives, and scuba gear. That's pretty cheap and easy.

Your argument fails to account for the fact that Germany didn't need more gas from those pipes, thanks to bulking up their reserves after Russia invaded Ukraine in anticipation of the gas supplies being completely cut by Russia. The 'Germany is hostage to Russian gas' narrative helps the Russians fearmonger, but the govs involved have/had already taken a lot of steps to remove that leverage from Russian control/find alternatve sources while buuilding up reserves for winter.

Russia is getting desperate due to the losses and the domestic situation unraveling, so them trying to sow the seeds of rifts inside NATO and maybe distract people in the Baltics from supporting Ukraine for a bit, is seems quite possible.

(Put these together so that my similar response goes together)

Sure, Germany is trying to shore up reserves, but we can tell that they are feeling the heat (or rather, aren't). The reopening of coal generators and the delay of closing nuclear power plants is big, and we can see this in other places as well. Make no mistake, they are in an energy crisis, and people are paying more. And people paying more don't like an easy solution being denied to them. NordStream being gone alleviates that pressure entirely, exactly what Russia doesn't want. Maybe one could argue that it wasn't needed, but it was definitely wanted. That's a huge wedge issue gone.

Especially since even if proof was found, the media wouldn't cover the story.

Eh, it depends. If the German Government is in on it, definitely not, as the proof will never be found. But if Germany wasn't, is annoyed, and actually finds proof (near impossible at this stage, probably)? I guarantee that they will shout it out to the world. The old "America's Awful" always gets ratings, as does a big expose, and that means money.

 

[LordsFire]

The consequences from the US getting caught doing it w/o German permission are much less than the Russian consequences. The US at worst blows up its major alliance. Really, really bad, but we're still the US, it's not an existential threat. Russia? That's war with NATO baby. Have fun.

...What?

How is this supposed to cause a war?

Sure, the Germans wouldn't like it, but hitting pipes out in the ocean is not the same as invading a country.

 

[Zachowon]

...What?

How is this supposed to cause a war?

Sure, the Germans wouldn't like it, but hitting pipes out in the ocean is not the same as invading a country.

You are hurting them economically and politically

 

[LordsFire]

You are hurting them economically and politically

Sure, but it takes a lot more than one industrial facility outside of your borders going out before western nations will declare war these days, especially Germany.

Maybe if it was nuclear.

 

[CurtisLemay]

You know how bad the deployments are? Those units are wearing Soviet era uniforms and gear and are having to sleep on the ground because logistics didn't send tents, camp beds or sleeping bags. Half of them are using AKs that are visibly rusted with rotting wooden stocks. 😆 those kids are going to die against Georgian border guards much less the Georgian army being rushed to the border.

This isn't war. This is murder. I don't hate the average Russian soldier. I pity him. And now they're sending kids to war without the training or the tools. That is just plain murder.

 

[Abhorsen]

...What?

How is this supposed to cause a war?

Sure, the Germans wouldn't like it, but hitting pipes out in the ocean is not the same as invading a country.

Blowing up another country's infrastructure is generally considered an act of war.

This isn't war. This is murder. I don't hate the average Russian soldier. I pity him. And now they're sending kids to war without the training or the tools. That is just plain murder.

All conscription is murder and slavery. It's always wrong, regardless of how much training or tools are given.

 

[Terthna]

Your argument fails to account for the fact that Germany didn't need more gas from those pipes, thanks to bulking up their reserves after Russia invaded Ukraine in anticipation of the gas supplies being completely cut by Russia. The 'Germany is hostage to Russian gas' narrative helps the Russians fearmonger, but the govs involved have/had already taken a lot of steps to remove that leverage from Russian control/find alternatve sources while buuilding up reserves for winter.

It also massively downplays the risks to NATO the US runs if we had done this, and ignores that the US was already on the way to removing NS1/2 as politically or economically viable in the long term, thus did not need to physically damage the pipes to remove their influence.

Russia is getting desperate due to the losses and the domestic situation unraveling, so them trying to sow the seeds of rifts inside NATO and maybe distract people in the Baltics from supporting Ukraine for a bit, is seems quite possible.

Well, sounds like you're convinced. As for me, I'm leaning towards the United States being responsible; but I'm open to being proven wrong.

 

[Captain X]

Spike Cohen
·
Earlier today, Edward Snowden announced that he now had full Russian citizenship, protecting him permanently against being extradited to the US.
A few things to remember about him today:
- It's because of him that we know the NSA was illegally spying on us and collecting all of our electronic communications.
- He tried getting asylum from 27 other countries before settling on Russia, which he was forced to do because the US government canceled his passport while he was there.
- He gave all of his documents to American journalists before going to Russia, and kept no copies for himself.
- He has criticized Putin and the Russian government, despite the risk of his being extradited or punished for doing so.
- If our government hadn't tried to imprison him for exposing their illegal spying, he'd still be here right now.
Citizenship was the only real option for Edward, his wife Lindsay, and his two sons to have the long-term stability they deserve.

 

[Zachowon]

Wanna know what else he did?
He gave away state secrets on how we do things and have made it drastically harder to do anything against our adversaries.

Because of him he has made us weaker, and made our enemies have an advantage.

He definitely wasn't doing something for the good of the nation.
He was doing something because he didn't know what he was looking at and jumped to conclusions.
Should I mention he sold secrets to China and they still wouldn't accept him?

I hope he gets drafted.
The reason his criticism of Putin hasn't caused him anything is because he is of use to Putin.
That's it

 

[Abhorsen]

Because of him he has made us weaker, and made our enemies have an advantage.

Yes, the US government being weaker because it stopped illegally spying on its own people is something I wished happened.

He definitely wasn't doing something for the good of the nation.
He was doing something because he didn't know what he was looking at and jumped to conclusions.
Should I mention he sold secrets to China and they still wouldn't accept him?

... Only he didn't sell secrets to China? That's an outright fabrication. No one alleges that he sold anything. Some (wrongly) argue he gave the secrets to china. What's actually likely happened is that China and Russia stole the info off of journalist laptops. Or even more likely, that they grabbed it straight from the NSA:

China and Russia Almost Definitely Have the Snowden Docs

I believe that both China and Russia had access to all the files that Snowden took well before Snowden took them.

www.wired.com

 

[Terthna]

Yes, the US government being weaker because it stopped illegally spying on its own people is something I wished happened.

... Only he didn't sell secrets to China? That's an outright fabrication. No one alleges that he sold anything. Some (wrongly) argue he gave the secrets to china. What's actually likely happened is that China and Russia stole the info off of journalist laptops. Or even more likely, that they grabbed it straight from the NSA:

China and Russia Almost Definitely Have the Snowden Docs

I believe that both China and Russia had access to all the files that Snowden took well before Snowden took them.

www.wired.com

Zachowon's opinions on Edward Snowden are based on things he supposedly knows from his job working in intelligence that he refuses to elaborate on; you're not going to convince him that he's wrong.

 

[Bacle]

So looks like they really are going for the whole 'these areas are now part of Russia' shit.

Edit:



Looks like the Russian's may try something out of Belarus again.