Russia-Ukraine War Political Discussion

[History Learner]

Russia tends to fight until they cant fight any more, 30,000 people is not enough to get them to quit, you need to kill at least a half a million russians before the country throws in the towel and we are not near those numbers.

I do agree with his view that at least a partial mobilization is called for, if only to speed up the end of the war. So far, despite some claims in April, there's been no indication they've called up reserve units for action in Ukraine; I'm not even talking conscripts, but the volunteer reservists.

 

[Cherico]

I do agree with his view that at least a partial mobilization is called for, if only to speed up the end of the war. So far, despite some claims in April, there's been no indication they've called up reserve units for action in Ukraine; I'm not even talking conscripts, but the volunteer reservists.

I don't think the Ukraine will be the last war, I think Putin is going to go after the Nato countries of the baltic nations and poland next, and I think they fully realize they are next and that is why europe is freaking out like it is.

Funny thing even if they win everything, they still collapse because of shit demographics, industry and a whole host of other problems.

 

[History Learner]

I don't think the Ukraine will be the last war, I think Putin is going to go after the Nato countries of the baltic nations and poland next, and I think they fully realize they are next and that is why europe is freaking out like it is.

Funny thing even if they win everything, they still collapse because of shit demographics, industry and a whole host of other problems.

Would you care if I quote this post in the other thread to respond to it there? The mods seem kinda strict about what goes where.

 

[Cherico]

Would you care if I quote this post in the other thread to respond to it there? The mods seem kinda strict about what goes where.

go ahead

 

[Zachowon]

@Cherico Russia isn't the Soviet Union and domt have the same.numbers as they did then.

 

[Bacle]

 

[Terthna]

"France's condition for victory is restoration of Ukrainian territory to 2014 borders including Crimea". That's never going to happen, so in essence what they're saying is that they have no plans of letting this farce (the one where they pretend to oppose Russia with ineffective sanction after ineffective sanction) end anytime soon. And why would they; it's the perfect distraction from their many, many problems at home.

 

[Zachowon]

"France's condition for victory is restoration of Ukrainian territory to 2014 borders including Crimea". That's never going to happen, so in essence what they're saying is that they have no plans of letting this farce (the one where they pretend to oppose Russia with ineffective sanction after ineffective sanction) end anytime soon. And why would they; it's the perfect distraction from their many, many problems at home.

So Ukraine should just give up?
US supports Ukraines full definition

 

[Marduk]

"France's condition for victory is restoration of Ukrainian territory to 2014 borders including Crimea". That's never going to happen, so in essence what they're saying is that they have no plans of letting this farce (the one where they pretend to oppose Russia with ineffective sanction after ineffective sanction) end anytime soon. And why would they; it's the perfect distraction from their many, many problems at home.

Its just France getting in line with the rest of NATO, finally. Whether it actually happens or not, stating it as any less than that achieves nothing but weaken Ukraine's position at any hypothetical negotiation table for no good reason. If Russia wants to keep some parts of the illegitimately gained territory, it will have to provide some other concessions for it.
As for how long it will last, leaders are now slowly realizing that it's going to be a marathon, not a sprint. No one can feed a full scale conventional war forever, sooner or later someone will be in a situation where they can't. And who will that be mostly depends on how much the west supports Ukraine.

 

[Terthna]

Its just France getting in line with the rest of NATO, finally. Whether it actually happens or not, stating it as any less than that achieves nothing but weaken Ukraine's position at any hypothetical negotiation table for no good reason. If Russia wants to keep some parts of the illegitimately gained territory, it will have to provide some other concessions for it.
As for how long it will last, leaders are now slowly realizing that it's going to be a marathon, not a sprint. No one can feed a full scale conventional war forever, sooner or later someone will be in a situation where they can't.

Is there such a thing as legitimately gained territory? Regardless, yes; this is probably going to go on for years before any sort of conclusion is reached, especially so long as the west continues to prop up Ukraine just enough to keep the conflict going (but not enough to actually help them win).

 

[Cherico]

@Cherico Russia isn't the Soviet Union and domt have the same.numbers as they did then.

It doesn't matter we are talking about Russian culture here, they have had the same mindset since the mongols left. Sometimes its aided them some times its led to a collapse but the Russian capacity for pain should not be underestimated.

 

[Marduk]

Is there such a thing as legitimately gained territory? Regardless, yes; this is probably going to go on for years before any sort of conclusion is reached, especially so long as the west continues to prop up Ukraine just enough to keep the conflict going (but not enough to actually help them win).

Well, if it was sold or given in a universally recognized treaty, that would be as close to legitimately gained territory as things get.

And considerable portions of the west do really want Ukraine to win spectacularly, the problem is that implementing this kind of military support, nevermind increasing production to support it, is something that takes more time than the whole duration of the war so far.

 

[Bacle]

"France's condition for victory is restoration of Ukrainian territory to 2014 borders including Crimea". That's never going to happen, so in essence what they're saying is that they have no plans of letting this farce (the one where they pretend to oppose Russia with ineffective sanction after ineffective sanction) end anytime soon. And why would they; it's the perfect distraction from their many, many problems at home.

Look, I understand being cynical about things because of conditions at home, but this war is just war of defense for Ukraine, and with the showing of the Russian military so far, Ukraine retaking Crimea and getting the 2014 borders back is doable, but not as a 'quick' affair.

As for the sanctions being ineffective, you forget that Russia is now shut out of the Taiwanese chip market, and except for a few nations buying the oil, the rest of Russia's economy, domestic and international, is in the absolute shitter.

The sanctions have made it so Russia cannot replace the losses they sustain, and have no domestic logistics trial for a lot of their gear anymore. Where as NATO and the West do have teh logistics trial to sustain Ukraine in the slog to come.

And make no mistake, it will be a slog to retake the rest of Ukraine from Moscow's forces, but it can be done if the West continues to support Ukraine. It is logistics, not fancy battlefield tactics, that win wars, and the West/Ukraine have a much longer and deeper armory than Russia does now.

And do not forget that the domestic political scene in Russia is not blowing in Putin's favor anymore, and it's more a matter of who ends up replacing him in either a 'retirement for health reasons' coup or straight assassination attempt from the inside.

You need to realize that no amount of domestic issues here are going to make Ukrainian's stop defending their lands, and no amount of bullshit here justifies anything Putin has done or allowed his military to do since the tanks rolled through Chernobyl.

 

[ATP]

It doesn't matter we are talking about Russian culture here, they have had the same mindset since the mongols left. Sometimes its aided them some times its led to a collapse but the Russian capacity for pain should not be underestimated.

Yes.But - they have two models of operating - suffering for tsar things which nobody else would suffer,and ten go and murder tsar and his famiy in interesting and creative ways.

 

[Zachowon]

It doesn't matter we are talking about Russian culture here, they have had the same mindset since the mongols left. Sometimes its aided them some times its led to a collapse but the Russian capacity for pain should not be underestimated.

Idk man. They are nit fans of this conflict.
If they were they would be nit have to be f9rcing people into contracts

 

[Terthna]

Look, I understand being cynical about things because of conditions at home, but this war is just war of defense for Ukraine, and with the showing of the Russian military so far, Ukraine retaking Crimea and getting the 2014 borders back is doable, but not as a 'quick' affair.

As for the sanctions being ineffective, you forget that Russia is now shut out of the Taiwanese chip market, and except for a few nations buying the oil, the rest of Russia's economy, domestic and international, is in the absolute shitter.

The sanctions have made it so Russia cannot replace the losses they sustain, and have no domestic logistics trial for a lot of their gear anymore. Where as NATO and the West do have teh logistics trial to sustain Ukraine in the slog to come.

And make no mistake, it will be a slog to retake the rest of Ukraine from Moscow's forces, but it can be done if the West continues to support Ukraine. It is logistics, not fancy battlefield tactics, that win wars, and the West/Ukraine have a much longer and deeper armory than Russia does now.

And do not forget that the domestic political scene in Russia is not blowing in Putin's favor anymore, and it's more a matter of who ends up replacing him in either a 'retirement for health reasons' coup or straight assassination attempt from the inside.

You need to realize that no amount of domestic issues here are going to make Ukrainian's stop defending their lands, and no amount of bullshit here justifies anything Putin has done or allowed his military to do since the tanks rolled through Chernobyl.

You're forgetting that it's not a matter of "retaking" Crimea. Or the Donbass region for that matter. The people there are going to resist an invading force from western Ukraine with pretty much the same fervor as the latter has been resisting Russia, admittedly with not nearly as much external support. Even if they succeed, they're going to have to be treated like hostile occupied territory for at least a generation, until they've managed to "reeducate" the populace.

Also, we kinda don't have the logistics to support Ukraine in a prolonged conflict; not unless you want us to sacrifice ourselves (and by us, I don't mean our governments; I mean us as in you and me starving ourselves to death) for Ukraine. Things are a lot worse than our governments pretend they are, and you can only keep borrowing against the future for so long before the bill comes due. And that bill? Keeps getting bigger and bigger.

I get that you feel that protecting Ukraine is the right thing to do; I don't agree, but I get it. Regardless though, you'll never convince me that I have to become a martyr for them.

 

[Marduk]

You're forgetting that it's not a matter of "retaking" Crimea. Or the Donbass region for that matter. The people there are going to resist an invading force from western Ukraine with pretty much the same fervor as the latter has been resisting Russia, admittedly with not nearly as much external support. Even if they succeed, they're going to have to be treated like hostile occupied territory for at least a generation, until they've managed to "reeducate" the populace.

Umm, no?
It is a baseless assumption. If such people exist there, they have volunteered to the Russian military a long time ago - and we don't exactly hear of those massive lines in front of the Russian recruitment offices. Donbass has already drafted anyone with a loose resemblance to a fighting age man, and from what we have heard most of them were less than enthusiastic.
Who the hell is going to constitute this fierce resistance?

Also, we kinda don't have the logistics to support Ukraine in a prolonged conflict; not unless you want us to sacrifice ourselves (and by us, I don't mean our governments; I mean us as in you and me starving ourselves to death) for Ukraine. Things are a lot worse than our governments pretend they are, and you can only keep borrowing against the future for so long before the bill comes due. And that bill? Keeps getting bigger and bigger.

Don't we?
Starve ourselves?
WTF are you smoking?
Did NATO and Russia suddenly exchange their economies when i wasn't looking?
Reminder that Soviet Union lost the Cold War arms race, back when it had all the places Putin is taking or wishes he could take, and the west wasn't even trying very hard, nevermind starving themselves. Only North Korea goes that far.

 

[Terthna]

Umm, no?
It is a baseless assumption. If such people exist there, they have volunteered to the Russian military a long time ago - and we don't exactly hear of those massive lines in front of the Russian recruitment offices. Donbass has already drafted anyone with a loose resemblance to a fighting age man, and from what we have heard most of them were less than enthusiastic.
Who the hell is going to constitute this fierce resistance?

Not if they were happy enough simply not being part of Ukraine any longer, and weren't interested in supporting the invasion; I suspect those people will be violently unhappy at the prospect of not only being forced to become part of it again, but also at what western Ukraine will inevitably do to bring to heel and exact revenge on those of Russian heritage in those areas.

Don't we?
Starve ourselves?
WTF are you smoking?
Did NATO and Russia suddenly exchange their economies when i wasn't looking?
Reminder that Soviet Union lost the Cold War arms race, back when it had all the places Putin is taking or wishes he could take, and the west wasn't even trying very hard, nevermind starving themselves. Only North Korea goes that far.

Things are about to get very bad in the United States; I can understand it may not seem like it from the outside looking in, but we are the epitome of a paper tiger right now. Within the next few years to a decade at the latest, assuming Trump or DeSantis doesn't get into office in 2024 and pull a miracle out of their rear ends, our economy is going to crash; and crash hard.

 

[Zachowon]

Not if they were happy enough simply not being part of Ukraine any longer, and weren't interested in supporting the invasion; I suspect those people will be violently unhappy at the prospect of not only being forced to become part of it again, but also at what western Ukraine will inevitably do to bring to heel and exact revenge on those of Russian heritage in those areas.


Things are about to get very bad in the United States; I can understand it may not seem like it from the outside looking in, but we are the epitome of a paper tiger right now. Within the next few years to a decade at the latest, assuming Trump or DeSantis doesn't get into office in 2024 and pull a miracle out of their rear ends, our economy is going to crash; and crash hard.

And the world relies on us.
If we crash everyone does.

But China is going to invade Tauwan before then

 

[History Learner]

So Ukraine should just give up?
US supports Ukraines full definition

Yes, they should. They're not going to win by any stretch of the imagination.