Breaking News Robert F Kennedy Jr. is considering a 2024 POTUS Run To Challenge Biden

[Rocinante]

Not sure how an RFK Independent run might effect the generals. I could see him pulling in some of the "not really right wing but just not voting democrat" and anti-vax
and potentially even some of the little L libertarian crowd, too.

Most dangerously for the right, is the ex-dems who left the party or were pushed out, and only reluctantly vote GOP because fuck democrats. I can tell you right now that he appeals to those people. Especially as an independent.

Quoting to follow up on my own post:

I am now much more confident in predicting how an RFK Jr. Run will effect the candidates, and that prediction is quite the opposite of those on this site.

Based on this poll, I am predicting that this will hurt Trump far, FAR more than Biden. Democrats fucking hate him and will NOT be voting for him in any significant numbers. The right on the other hand, actually like him, and as far as I can tell, a lot of other right leaning independent types do, too. I think some Republicans like him better than some GOP candidates, But I don't have graphs for that.

But I will say that his stance on Ukraine and Vaccines makes him a non starter for most democrats. Additionally the word around the media sphere is that he's planning to grill the DNC and democrats. They're just not going to be voting for him.

 

[ParadiseLost]

RFK Jr is a false flag candidate to split the Republican base to secure a Democrat win in an election that they would likely never win otherwise.

Calling it now. Its Ross Perot all over again.

 

[Rocinante]

RFK Jr is a false flag candidate to split the Republican base to secure a Democrat win in an election that they would likely never win otherwise.

Calling it now. Its Ross Perot all over again.

Agreed.

 

[DarthOne]

RFK Jr is a false flag candidate to split the Republican base to secure a Democrat win in an election that they would likely never win otherwise.

Calling it now. Its Ross Perot all over again.

…Damn it all.

 

[The Whispering Monk]

Quoting to follow up on my own post:

I am now much more confident in predicting how an RFK Jr. Run will effect the candidates, and that prediction is quite the opposite of those on this site.

Based on this poll, I am predicting that this will hurt Trump far, FAR more than Biden. Democrats fucking hate him and will NOT be voting for him in any significant numbers. The right on the other hand, actually like him, and as far as I can tell, a lot of other right leaning independent types do, too. I think some Republicans like him better than some GOP candidates, But I don't have graphs for that.

But I will say that his stance on Ukraine and Vaccines makes him a non starter for most democrats. Additionally the word around the media sphere is that he's planning to grill the DNC and democrats. They're just not going to be voting for him.

What kind of population did this poll actually talk to?
Is the drop in the D's side simply b/c they're pissed off and worried it'll pull candidates from the Biden mannequin?
Is the increase in the R's side simply b/c they're happy to see the Dem votes get split.
It's a dumb question (if that was the only question they asked) that really has no impact on voting.

 

[ATP]

There's a small picture of an anthropomorphic elephant on my doctors wall, and he's suggested perhaps revisiting my relationship with Jesus, he's more than willing to talk to me about that from a Hindu perspective if I like, but since his wife's a Catholic he has some interesting compassions he'd love to share.

Alright so if I believe that I'm sane, but mine I'm crazy.

Acceptable mental illness that said he's family medical but his past history in dealing with psychopharmacology makes him a much better listener than the one he once sent me to.

That guy was a dick, one of these science is infallible atheist.

He's like so Dr maybe his practice would do better in India wants a second opinion.

What is this dribble, he thinks you've got interpersonal wounds with religion.

Have you ever tried abilify, of course you could go wish on some energy clouds with his magic elephant.

That's Ganesh and I think his way sounds a bit safer, you didn't even listen to me just tried to get me to take something I guess you have a deal with said company about judging from your pen collection, and the cup, and the advertisement on the back of your door.


Or a psychedelic elephant man god.

Hard call hmmm

To install puppet regimes of course and to cripple mother Russia.

You know who was actually trained by the CIA

(At least according to Putin)

1.If it made you happy,OK
2.Gorbaczow was choosen by soviet party as next leader,including head of KGB.
And Putin belive,that ukrainians and belarussians do not exist.Not mention - he lost war which would be win long ago by amateur like me.

P.S How to you want to cripple something dead?
Becouse Mother Russia was murdered by Sralin.That is why Moscov is ruled by KGB,not tsar,and worshipp sralin instead of God.

 

[Rocinante]

What kind of population did this poll actually talk to?
Is the drop in the D's side simply b/c they're pissed off and worried it'll pull candidates from the Biden mannequin?
Is the increase in the R's side simply b/c they're happy to see the Dem votes get split.
It's a dumb question (if that was the only question they asked) that really has no impact on voting.

I don't know all the details about the poll. Can't answer that. You'll have to look it up if you want to know that stuff.

Look, using basic logic, you can tell immediately that almost no democrats will be voting for him.

He's anti-vax and anti funding Ukraine. Those are big deal breakers for democrats.

Further, he's going to run on a platform of attacking the DNC, and most of the middle/upper-middle/educated class love the democrat establishment.

Everything he is doing is poison for democrats and attractive to many right leaning voters who aren't totally sold on Trump and are just voting against Biden. Trump needs those voters to win.

RFK is the most dangerous thing for Trump's campaign so far.

I'm calling it now: if RFK runs independent, Democrats win in a landslide. No cheating needed.

I'm patient. We'll wait and see. I'm even going to put a reminder in my phone that links to this post for the day after the election, and we'll revisit then, to see if I was right.

 

[Blasterbot]

I get that He pulls a lot from similar demographics trump is good at peeling away from dems. Trump has some pretty hard support in general though. Trump won 2016 by 80,000 votes and lost 2020 by under 6 digits as well. this is a battle in the margins and predicting who will be hurt more by this is gonna take some data gathering. I could see arguments for both. it gives TDS people a way to vote for not the establishment candidate. considering Joe won simply because he is an arguably warm body to sit in the office? he doesn't hold up well at all to any competition.

 

[Rocinante]

I get that He pulls a lot from similar demographics trump is good at peeling away from dems. Trump has some pretty hard support in general though. Trump won 2016 by 80,000 votes and lost 2020 by under 6 digits as well. this is a battle in the margins and predicting who will be hurt more by this is gonna take some data gathering. I could see arguments for both. it gives TDS people a way to vote for not the establishment candidate. considering Joe won simply because he is an arguably warm body to sit in the office? he doesn't hold up well at all to any competition.

More data is helpful. But what we have is revealing. Democrats HATE him, Republicans are pretty warm on him. I think it's a pretty solid prediction at this point. Trump's base isn't going anywhere, but he needs more than his loyal base to win.

Rfk is the old school democrat politician who will have a lot of appeal to the people who left the Democrat party and went to the GOP because the dems went crazy. He really appeals to those people. I know because I'm one of them. I won't be voting RFK but I had considered it when I heard he plans to run independent.

He has appeal to lots of Republicans, he is absolute cancer as far as democrats are concerned. They already hated him. Him leaving the party will make them hate him more.

Being both anti vax and anti Ukraine are both make or break positions for them. Remember these are the people who wanted to force you to take that vax and destroy anyone who dared speak against it.

There may be a few anti war democrats and anti vax democrats floating around but I'll bet 99.9% of them are either pro Ukraine or pro vax. So even if they're with RFK on one, he probably gets eliminated from consideration by the other one.

Dems aren't voting for this guy.

 

[Wishing Whale]

You bring up a good point about that, the Democratic party seems to big ticket with crazies, Bernie Thompson has even quietly admitted that open enough he's heard. His disdain of Nancy Pelosi is pretty evident he looks like he's cringing everytime she shakes his hand. Oh I can't wipe this off on camera.

 

[StormEagle]

The important thing about RFK is that he has potential to peel off a lot of the Union democrats. The blue collar, predominantly white, working class guys that make up a lot of the voting demo of the Rust Belt.

These guys are largely older school democrats that largely can’t stomach voting republican but feel abandoned by the party at large.

That was the demo that won Trump the rust belt states in 2016, and their shift back to the democrats or political apathy lost him 2020….I mean, besides the obvious cheating that was also going on.

If RFK peels those guys off, it basically kills the democrat margins in those states. Throw in the fact that the Greens are considering running a candidate in 2024, potentially taking the econuts out of the field for the democrats as well, and you have a recipe for disaster for the democrats.

The only way it could get worse for them is if the DSA runs a candidate as well. If I was in charge of GOP campaign policy, I’d be doing my damned best to astroturf such a campaign into existence.

If the libertarians can be convinced to stay the fuck out of the race, unlikely given their propensity for trying to shoot the GOP in the foot, there’s real potential for a 2016 outcome.

This is all speculative of course, so take it with a grain of salt.

 

[Blasterbot]

More data is helpful. But what we have is revealing. Democrats HATE him, Republicans are pretty warm on him. I think it's a pretty solid prediction at this point. Trump's base isn't going anywhere, but he needs more than his loyal base to win.

Rfk is the old school democrat politician who will have a lot of appeal to the people who left the Democrat party and went to the GOP because the dems went crazy. He really appeals to those people. I know because I'm one of them. I won't be voting RFK but I had considered it when I heard he plans to run independent.

He has appeal to lots of Republicans, he is absolute cancer as far as democrats are concerned. They already hated him. Him leaving the party will make them hate him more.

Being both anti vax and anti Ukraine are both make or break positions for them. Remember these are the people who wanted to force you to take that vax and destroy anyone who dared speak against it.

There may be a few anti war democrats and anti vax democrats floating around but I'll bet 99.9% of them are either pro Ukraine or pro vax. So even if they're with RFK on one, he probably gets eliminated from consideration by the other one.

Dems aren't voting for this guy.

He was polling around 20% in their hypothetical primaries. if he can shave that off them? that will hurt Biden a lot. If a bunch of independents who refused to vote trump hop on that wagon too? cool. if some TDS republicans show up and check his box and vote down ticket republican they are kinda dumb since the things they dislike about trump other than personality are all worse with RFK.

to my understanding Trump's base is about 70% hard support. meaning they won't be persuaded away in the primary. and a fair portion were Trump or bust as in they were going to refuse to vote at all if it wasn't trump. I would be surprised if that didn't carry over into the general.

I can see good arguments for who his run may hurt more for either outcome. we are just gonna have to be see how it shakes out.

 

[StormEagle]

The other question is, what happens with the black vote in a hypothetical RFK independent run?

The black vote has been somewhat interesting the last few election cycles, because of how it’s been splitting. More and more black men are starting to split away from the democrat party while black women are sticking to it.

How many black men will stay with Joe when they have a ready, democrat, alternative? If even 15% of black men split off to go with RFK instead of Joe, that almost kills the democrat presidential ticket by itself.

Throw on top of that the black vote that Trump has managed to win over to the GOP. Which has been a significant shift compared to past republican candidates.

The black vote is what cements democrat strongholds. If that weakens to much, it will cause severe problems for them in areas you might not expect.

Again, just my thoughts on the matter. So take it with a grain of salt.

 

[LordsFire]

More data is helpful. But what we have is revealing. Democrats HATE him, Republicans are pretty warm on him. I think it's a pretty solid prediction at this point. Trump's base isn't going anywhere, but he needs more than his loyal base to win.

Rfk is the old school democrat politician who will have a lot of appeal to the people who left the Democrat party and went to the GOP because the dems went crazy. He really appeals to those people. I know because I'm one of them. I won't be voting RFK but I had considered it when I heard he plans to run independent.

He has appeal to lots of Republicans, he is absolute cancer as far as democrats are concerned. They already hated him. Him leaving the party will make them hate him more.

Being both anti vax and anti Ukraine are both make or break positions for them. Remember these are the people who wanted to force you to take that vax and destroy anyone who dared speak against it.

There may be a few anti war democrats and anti vax democrats floating around but I'll bet 99.9% of them are either pro Ukraine or pro vax. So even if they're with RFK on one, he probably gets eliminated from consideration by the other one.

Dems aren't voting for this guy.

You seriously overestimate how much a lot of leftists would like any palatable option other than Biden. There's an entire sub-category of leftist voters who cannot bring themselves to break out of the media bubble, but also want to behave in at least somewhat rational ways.

Someone like RFK, who is not Trump, but also runs so many of their talking points, is a desperate way out for some people.

 

[ShieldWife]

These days, so much of the modern Democrat vote is based on conformity to authority figures, nearly any third party candidate might hurt the Republican more. Even a candidate that is further to the left in every regard seems unlikely to cut into Democrat votes. They’ll be told that person is a Nazi and they’ll believe it.

 

[Wishing Whale]

These days, so much of the modern Democrat vote is based on conformity to authority figures, nearly any third party candidate might hurt the Republican more. Even a candidate that is further to the left in every regard seems unlikely to cut into Democrat votes. They’ll be told that person is a Nazi and they’ll believe it.

Yup and the party has gotten weird.

It's there is truly such a thing as so inclusive you're exclusive.

But considering their districts, actual segregation exist in California, only its "safe spaces" where "coloreds" can relax without any intrusive whites.

Thats, y'all know Alabama had safe spaces like that too, probably still a few holdouts, definitely so in West Virginia, South Africa still does by default just like your state it's also officially illegal but totally happens, I mean they can't actually have a world where humans have just become people.

Same is true for gay pride.

And at what point does it become less about a weird hyper sexualized celebration of hey let's show those hateful evangelisalst they're not the only ones who can fit tired old offensive stereotypes into their everyday life.

Here's this flag, look at me.

Ok everyone speculate about which one of us is the bottom more, cuz it's June.

At what point does it just become oh, you wanna go have a coffee, sure.

There's two people sitting having lunch,

Wait better put my upside down triangle on like Hitler would have wanted, can't let people just know me.

 

[Bacle]

RFK Jr. has officially declared an Independent Run for POTUS, dropping out of the DNCs bullshit.

 

[Cherico]

RFK Jr. has officially declared an Independent Run for POTUS, dropping out of the DNCs bullshit.

 

[ParadiseLost]

The evidence of his status as the new Ross Perot grows.

 

[DarthOne]

RFK Jr. has officially declared an Independent Run for POTUS, dropping out of the DNCs bullshit.

That’s not good.

Look if it was a race between RFK, Trump and Biden then Trump has a fair chance of winning.

Problem; I don’t think the Democrats are going to run Biden. They’ll go with someone else that will pull in more Democrat votes. Meanwhile, the support of independents and a handful of Republicans will be split between Trump and RFK.

In short, ladies and gents, we have another Roosevelt vs Taft vs Wilson situation. And like back then, it will split the vote in such a way that the Democrats will win in what could easily be the most important election of the century.

The only ‘good news’ is that, if this happens, it might, MIGHT mean that the Democrats will be the ones to hold the bag when it all falls apart. Which could work in our favor, assuming it does all fall apart, which is a big if.