Quest Deep Periphery Quest (Battletech Sandbox Empire Builder)

ShadowArxxy - Canon Omake - Strategic Analysis

ShadowArxxy

Well-known member
Comrade
Omake: Strategic Analysis

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Secure Containment Information Facility - Royal Palace

"Our analysis of the three incoming DropShips' drive signatures gives us very high confidence that one of them is the same Union-CV class aerospace carrier dropship that was previously deployed against us ten years ago during the last major attack. We only have tentative IDs on the other two; one is around ten thousand tons and the other is around *fifty* thousand tons with five distinct sub-plumes. Our best guesses on those are a Mule class cargo hauler and a Aqueduct class fuel hauler. They remain on course for an landing on Griffin IV, and are clearly planning to establish a forward base there. It's the only reason to bring something as specialized and valuable as that huge fuel carrier."

The Aerospace Force officer delivering the classified briefing was a relatively young and clearly nervous Captain. Fortunately, the Queen was very good at calm, reassuring Mom Smiles. "They'd be able to attack us directly from that base?"

"It's possible, but only marginally. At a sustained 1.5G burn, Griffin IV is roughly a 24 hour flight for a maximum-velocity flyby or 32 hours for a zero-zero intercept. ASFs can fly that far but they'd be at severely degraded combat readiness. We think what they intend is to use that Union-CV to ferry several loads of fighters to the base, then hot-deck off it to double or even triple their effective fighter complement during their next major attack."

"They're still badly underestimating us then. Especially with the new Eagles, our ASF wings are more than a match for thirty-six of theirs."

"Remember that they can *produce* Leopard-CVs. With the three-collar JumpShip they clearly have, they can drop off a pair of loaded Leopard-CVs on each future run to this forward base, along with twelve ASFs from the Union-CV; that's twenty-four ASFs and two Leopard-CVs per run. Or in the worst case, they could have the ability to produce Union-CVs, which would allow them to bring in 36 fighters every run. We're going to have to monitor jump and drive plumes very carefully; if we can figure out their delivery schedule, we should be able to get a good idea of when they're going to attack and in what strength."

(For pure ASF deliveries, the most likely scenario would be two more supply runs for a force of one Union-CV and four Leopard-CVs hot decking sixty ASFs between them, while the maximum plausible would be three more supply runs for one Union and six Leopards hot decking eighty-four ASFs. Obviously, things mix up quite a bit if future drive plumes are anything other than Union-CV/Leopard-CV mix, but we should be able to see that coming.)

"So the bottom line is that they've realized our defenses are too potent for a direct JumpShip/DropShip assault, and are setting up a forward base to work around that bottleneck." The Queen frowned. "This is troubling, although I suppose it's also a backhanded compliment to our ASF forces."

"But it doesn't make any sense, Mom!" interjects James, twitching a little. Since Jeremy was away at sea, the next-in-line twins were sitting in on the briefing. "Kurita is one of the Great Houses of the Star League; they could just *use bigger JumpShips* instead of dancing around with forward bases that they know we can see!"

"That's actually one of the things that's been keeping our analysts up at night." agrees the Captain smoothly, handling the interruption with relative aplomb. "According to our friend from the Magistracy, the answer is that space infrastructure throughout the Inner Sphere really was hit *that hard* during the First and Second Succession Wars. WarShips are completely extinct, and JumpShip production is incredibly limited.

So yes, bringing in a Monolith with six Union-CVs and three Overlords on her collars would be a very direct solution to the problem we present them. But large JumpShips like that are few and far between even for a Great House. They may well have used one or two of those or even a Potemkin to bring their force from the Combine all the way out here, but they literally could not afford to leave such critically rare assets on an extended deployment. The heavy lift JumpShips must have been sent back to the Combine once they found a suitable planet to deploy on for their initial landing, which is also why they've been committed to the occupation of Nowa Warszawa rather than simply moving to a more convenient, uninhabited planet."

The officer waited for the Queen's nod before moving back to the slide deck. "We've seen them deploy dropship counts consistent with a one-collar and a three-collar JumpShip; while it would be dangerously over-optimistic to conclude that this is all they have retained, they are clearly reluctant to commit multiple JumpShips or larger JumpShips *even* when they have strong reason to believe there is no possible way we could threaten them. We're not sure *why* they are so reluctant, but this forward base strategy is a pretty solid commitment to small Jumps. They will likely continue to use the three-collar ship to build up forces at the forward base; seeing troop transport Dropships or a larger JumpShip would likely indicate that the next major assault is underway."

"I see. What are our options?"

"Unfortunately, we don't have any viable immediate responses. Our ASFs would be just as exhausted as theirs without carrier support, and the Enterprise is simply too fragile to risk in hot space. We would have to build our own carrier and combat transports in order to field any viable counterattack, and the Aerospace Force's recommendation is that we hold back until we can assemble a decisive force."
 
Turn 25 - When The Man Comes Around

LordSunhawk

Das BOOT (literally)
Owner
Administrator
Staff Member
Founder
Turn 25 - When the Man Comes Around

As soon as the course of the incoming craft was verified the alert level was stepped down a notch, although monitoring increased in case the Dracs were getting clever and were trying to distract the defenses.

It’s still a tense week, before the dropships reach Griffon IV and land. Several hours later, one of them lifts off again and heads back outbound towards the jump point.

A week later it arrives and the Jumpship departs. Only to return precisely 2 weeks later, this time disgorging three more dropships, tentatively identified as the Union-CV and a pair of Leopards, whether CV or standard is currently unknown. They also boost for Griffon IV rather than Griffin’s Roost.

And the pattern repeats, a single drive plume returns to the jump point, and when it arrives the Jumpship again departs. Precisely two weeks later, it returns, three dropships boost to Griffon IV, again the Union-CV and a pair of Leopards, a week later they arrive, the Union then returns to the jump point, the Jumpship jumps out.

It is blatantly obvious that the Dracs are building up a forward base on Griffon IV, obviously having learned from their previous attempts to attack just how tough a nut your ASF defenses were to crack.

On the third repetition instead of Leopards there is another large contact tentatively identified as a Mule and a single Leopard. When they arrive at Griffon IV the original Mule and the Union both return to the Jump point.

After this there is a lull. You are quite nervous about this lull. But then the Jumpship returns, sends the Union-CV, a Mule, and one Leopard in, gets the Union-CV and the previous Mule back, and departs. Evidently the forward base is now waiting for something else and the previous rapid growth has slowed significantly.

Closer to home, the geologists have informed you that it appears that the most likely vent to erupt on Mt Griffport is, unfortunately, the one closest to the Drop Port and both the Enterprise and Goshawk production factories. By their calculations and models the lava flow should be very slow, but inexorable and would destroy the Drop Port within a month of the eruption starting, with the factories being buried days later.

Several engineers from Griffin’s Roost University have been looking at the problem. They inform you that they believe they can use modern materials and technologies to divert the lava flow away from the valuable facilities, however this would be extremely expensive.

The idea is to use actively cooled armor-grade dikes in the projected path of the flow to divert it aside down pre-prepared routes to the ocean. The more robust and complete the dikes are built the more likely this plan is to work successfully.

[] Agree to basic defense - Cost will be 50,000 and time to complete is 1 turn. Chance to divert flow successfully is 50%

[] Agree to advanced defense - Cost will be 100,000 and time to complete is 1 turn. Chance to divert flow successfully is 75%

[] Agree to Maximum Defense - Cost will be 100,000 on each of the next 2 turns. Chance to divert flow successfully is 100%

[] Let it flow let it flow let it flow.

QM Note - if the lava flow reaches the Drop Port and Factories they will be destroyed.

A few days later you hear a howl of outrage from outside your office, and Willis storms in looking both furious and like he’s desperately trying not to laugh. It’s a very odd expression.

Evidently your good friends at Nollak Industries had been busy the last few years, and this year have presented to the AFGR a full battalion-set of Skysweeper AAA Tanks to complete 1st Brigade, 1st Armored to full planned strength.

And the cheeky bastards had presented them in honor of Willis.

And had sent Willis a plaque announcing this.

You can’t help it. You break down laughing as Sekhmet chuffs in amusement behind you.

This of course leads to Willis getting his just and proper revenge in the time-honored manner. You are, after all, quite ticklish.

The twins have been accepted into Griffin’s Roost University. They haven’t decided what to major in just yet, but they both still intend to become full-time professional racing hovercraft drivers. Indeed, they’ll be fitting their class schedule in around their race schedule, as both have passed the required tests and trials to race at the professional level, although both are doing so for a Palace team.

With full AFGR support, as their primary sponsor is AFGR. Lee Industries has also chipped in as a major sponsor.

Boys.

Willis has been cleared for flight status again and has begun teaching Thanh the practical side of flying. Of course you insist on him using a properly armored and protected platform, but he simply borrows one of the training birds from the AeroTraining Wing.
 

kelgar04

Well-known member
[X] Agree to Maximum Defense - Cost will be 100,000 on each of the next 2 turns. Chance to divert flow successfully is 100%
 

Thors_Alumni

Well-known member
[X] Agree to Maximum Defense - Cost will be 100,000 on each of the next 2 turns. Chance to divert flow successfully is 100%

Drac ASF's are going to Die.
 

ShadowArxxy

Well-known member
Comrade
Turn 25 - When the Man Comes Around

<snip Dragonflights>

Okay, so the total force sitting at the forward base is now:

One Mule class DropShip (and we now know that they have at least two Mules; Mule-1 came on the first jump and left on the last jump, with Mule-2 replacing it on the last jump)

One Aqueduct class DropShip

Five total Leopard and/or Leopard CV class DropShips

Between 58 and 78 AeroSpace Fighters.

Between 0 and 20 BattleMechs.

(I would say that the most likely mix would have been three Leopard and two Leopard CV, for eleven of their six-fighter squadrons of ASFs and three lances of Battlemechs. This is the only mix where the ASFs come out in even squadrons.

The forward base is clearly running off stored supplies delivered by the Mules, which is why they switched out Mules -- they sent Mule-1 home empty and brought in Mule-2 full of supplies. This means they don't have adequate supplies to support a massed contingent of ground troops at the base. If we see what look like troopships coming in, or anything *above* three DropShips, we'll know attack is imminent. Conversely, even with this gap we should expect to see another Mule resupply in about three months.)

[X] Agree to Maximum Defense - Cost will be 100,000 on each of the next 2 turns. Chance to divert flow successfully is 100%

I'm voting for maximum defense; the drop port and factories are simply too valuable to risk.


Drac ASF's are going to Die.

My best in-character guess is that they think we have an Iran-style capacity to maintain a stock of ASFs that came with our original colony expedition, and *maybe* limited production, but the idea of an isolated Deep Periphery backwater having *full-scale ASF development and production* is ludicrous; even the established Periphery nations can barely do that.

The kamikazes didn't come home, so the last *they* knew, we fielded 24 interceptor and 12 dropper chopper ASFs. Their forward base buildup of 58 to 78 brand new ASFs *should* provide decisive numerical superiority even if we've scraped together one more squadron.
 
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kashim3

Texan, Mandalorian, Alabamian.
[X] Agree to Maximum Defense - Cost will be 100,000 on each of the next 2 turns. Chance to divert flow successfully is 100%
"What's that? Our Dropport and Dropship factory get LAVA moat?"
 

PeaceMaker 03

Well-known member
In real world I believe a slow lava flow was diverted using massive water cannon to cool lava enough to form dykes that diverted the lava flow..... Italy I believe (or maybe Iceland).

We can not directly attack the Pirates but turnabout is fair play ..... use drop ship to hall tons of steel penetrators into orbit then Use the DS to accelerate them towards Griff IV targeting the Pirate base. KEW’s are not very Battletech but are physically possible. Lumps of steel with a ablative heat shield.

Even using the DS as a refueler for ASF each hauling 5- ton steel slugs to do a max burn for kinetic attack on the base.

or Ballistic launch a few suitcase nukes to their base ......

We know they use same Jump point , intercept math for swatting their JS with some kinetic gravel should be relatively easy.

Use ASF to burn towards Jump ship at high enough speed launch of bomb loads 1-ton penetrators.

50 ASF , 5 tons worth of penetrators patterned to cover margins of error..... who needs nukes?
 

Jarow

Well-known member
100k? Ouch, that's 40% of what we're making this turn. We can afford it, but going to have to hold off on DHS :(

[X] Agree to Maximum Defense - Cost will be 100,000 on each of the next 2 turns. Chance to divert flow successfully is 100%
 

kelgar04

Well-known member
Okay, so the total force sitting at the forward base is now:

One Mule class DropShip (and we now know that they have at least two Mules; Mule-1 came on the first jump and left on the last jump, with Mule-2 replacing it on the last jump)

One Aqueduct class DropShip

Five total Leopard and/or Leopard CV class DropShips

Between 58 and 78 AeroSpace Fighters.

Between 0 and 20 BattleMechs.

(I would say that the most likely mix would have been three Leopard and two Leopard CV, for eleven of their six-fighter squadrons of ASFs and three lances of Battlemechs. This is the only mix where the ASFs come out in even squadrons.

The forward base is clearly running off stored supplies delivered by the Mules, which is why they switched out Mules -- they sent Mule-1 home empty and brought in Mule-2 full of supplies. This means they don't have adequate supplies to support a massed contingent of ground troops at the base. If we see what look like troopships coming in, or anything *above* three DropShips, we'll know attack is imminent. Conversely, even with this gap we should expect to see another Mule resupply in about three months.)

We could hunt incoming dropship we could starve them out or force them to start to live off long pork if they were inclined that way.

@LordSunhawk what is the world like where they are landing?
 

kashim3

Texan, Mandalorian, Alabamian.
Do we have a map of the system?

Edit: I could really go for a "where are we in relation to others" system map.
 

ShadowArxxy

Well-known member
Comrade
Speculating from in-character knowledge, I *think* that if we were able to launch a recon run to the Planet of Unpronounceable Name, we'd see a fortified starport with a dozen-odd Overlords and maybe a few Excaliburs. That's the heavy lift force they used with additional JumpShips for the initial deployment and don't plan to use again until it's time for the big BakkuStabbu.

We know they have Leopards and Leopard CVs in full production, but given the very limited capacity of those vis-a-vis drop collars, those are certainly intended for "regular use" here in the Periphery rather than BakkuStabbu proper. They have at least one Union CV in regular use, and given how common Unions are, they probably have additional ones as a "step up" from the Leopards. They may -- may! -- even have Unions in production.

As far as JumpShips, they don't have an HPG so they must have retained at least two JumpShips so they can send one back to call for the big lift. We've seen two in regular use, and I believe that it makes sense for them to keep at least one bigger JumpShip in reserve. The Star Lord at six collars is the next biggest semi-common size up from a three collar Tramp or Invader, and given the relatively luxurious quarters on board, is arguably a solid pick for the spacegoing flagship of their force.


Bottom line: I think that the worst-likely case for the next major assault is a Star Lord deploying six Unions at the jump point, of which two will be carriers and four will be transports. With 66 forward-placed ASFs and 32 more coming in on the Union-CVs, they have a total of 98 ASFs on carriers totaling 48 fighter bays (two on each Leopard and Union, six on each Leopard CV, and twelve on each Union CV), which comes out to a double deck load and is vastly more practical than a triple load.

I think we've demonstrated enough resistance that they are going to escalate to the next level of their forces, and they *can* escalate that far. Remember, this was a strategic deployment of a force that was expected to build up big enough to be a decisive backstab against the Davions, not just a raid force. I would be shocked if they didn't have Overlord/Excalibur level forces in total, but those are basically tied down with the ongoing insurgency against the Poles and so they're "only" using Unions and Leopards. Leopards are confirmed to be in production, Unions are either stockpiled or possibly produced.

Lesser but still escalated options would be the reserve JumpShip bringing a mix of Unions and Leopards, or the three-collar JumpShip bringing in Unions. I'd say three Unions (two CV and one regular) is the next most likely option, as this brings to bear nearly the same oversized ASF wing coupled with less ground forces, and they *should* think that is adequate given that as far as they know, we don't even have any Battlemechs at all, just conveniently timed hippos.

As far as they know, our unusually large and skilled ASF force is our trump card. The forward base plan is clearly intended to counter that, and given that triple-decking is really pushing the bounds of realism, the number they've stockpiled forward strongly implies that they're bringing two Union-CVs or four Leopard-CVs to double-deck when the time comes. That should be a solid overmatch against what they *think* we have.

As such, the *most likely* force commitment, as opposed to worst case, is them either showing their likely six-collar flagship to bring in four Leopard-CVs and two transport Unions (outsized ASF forces smash aside ours, one Union lands on each of our two known major settlements), or their three-collar brings in two Union-CVs and one transport Union (again, outsized ASF forces smash ours, but this way they can only take one settlement.) They could bring two transport Unions on the three-collar, but only one Union CV really gives them a *very* dangerous level of hot decking.
 
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Lightwhispers

Well-known member
[X] Agree to Maximum Defense - Cost will be 100,000 on each of the next 2 turns. Chance to divert flow successfully is 100%

Looks like the next priority is to develop and build an ASF carrier dropship, for force projection.
 

Culsu

Agent of the Central Plasma
Founder
[X] Agree to Maximum Defense - Cost will be 100,000 on each of the next 2 turns. Chance to divert flow successfully is 100%
 

Ridli Scott

Well-known member
[X] Agree to Maximum Defense - Cost will be 100,000 on each of the next 2 turns. Chance to divert flow successfully is 100%
 

Vilegrave

Well-known member
[X] Agree to Maximum Defense - Cost will be 100,000 on each of the next 2 turns. Chance to divert flow successfully is 100%
 
Turn 25 - The Whirlwind is in the Thorn Tree

LordSunhawk

Das BOOT (literally)
Owner
Administrator
Staff Member
Founder
Turn 25 - The Whirlwind is in the Thorn Tree

A month after the latest cycle of dropships from the Dracs comes the next cycle, a bit early. A fresh arrival, and two dropships head towards Griffin IV. One is absolutely gigantic, massing approximately 100,000 tons, the other is an approximately 5000 ton unidentified aerodyne design.

Consultations with Dagny tentatively identify the larger of the two as a Behemoth and the smaller as a Condor. You are able to get some good images of the Behemoth from one of the orbital telescopes and it appears to be in very poor condition with nearly all of its external plating removed.

A day later the regularly scheduled arrival occurs, with a single Union and pair of Leopards boosting in system towards Griffin IV.

It’s becoming extremely concerning, to say the least.

You aren’t sure if it would be a good idea to declare martial law yet, because it would severely harm your economic growth this year and early indications from the markets are extremely good. However failing to do so in a timely manner could be disastrous.

[] Declare Martial Law (no Interior Actions will complete this turn, no GDP growth this turn, reduces damage from incoming attacks by half)
[] Wait a while longer.

There have been a number of minor earthquakes on Mt Griffsport, centered in the region that the geologists have predicted the magma will rise. Nothing serious enough to do more than rattle the tableware, and according to the scientists there shouldn’t be anything more severe than that.

The construction of the dike and coolant system is underway, supplemented by pipes laid to the sea to supply sprayers which will be used to cool the leading edge of the lava flow in an attempt to supplement the dike itself. Mechs from the 1st Armored Division have been deployed to assist with the construction, supplementing the construction personnel.

Parliament has decided to cancel their session this year and are remaining dispersed in case of an attack. The Eldest, meanwhile, has taken up residence in the Palace’s courtyard where he seems to be enjoying himself serving as a living jungle gym for little kids and discussing wide ranges of topics with their parents.

The Biggest Cat does present a proposal to you, however. He’d like your permission to bring a few dozen ‘Great Hunters’ to Griffsport to serve as additional forces to protect the city. A bit of discussion reveals that the ‘Great Hunters’ are ‘cats nearly as large as the Eldest himself, incredibly experienced hunters, who are relishing the potential opportunity to test themselves against the ‘metal walkers’.

[] Agree - Gain 1 Company of Grifftiger Assault Infantry, with HP 200, Attack 125, Defense 125, Initiative +100
[] Decline - No fuzzballs! I’m allergic! Sekhmet, stop laughing at me!
 

Joyousmadman

Well-known member
[X] Declare Martial Law (no Interior Actions will complete this turn, no GDP growth this turn, reduces damage from incoming attacks by half)

[X] Agree - Gain 1 Company of Grifftiger Assault Infantry, with HP 200, Attack 125, Defense 125, Initiative +100
 

ShadowArxxy

Well-known member
Comrade
[X] Declare Martial Law (no Interior Actions will complete this turn, no GDP growth this turn, reduces damage from incoming attacks by half)

I think the assault is going to come sooner rather than later. The Dracs have showed the trump cards they're playing for this round, so to speak: a second three-collar Dropship (which in functional throw weight terms is identical to the six-collar Dropship I think they've got), and a huge-ass Behemoth.

[X] Agree - Gain 1 Company of Grifftiger Assault Infantry, with HP 200, Attack 125, Defense 125, Initiative +100
 

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