History Learner
Well-known member
May/June was a taste of what a Second ACW would actually be like, rather than a repeat of the first which many seem to assume would be repeated, often along Red/Blue state lines. Problem with that is there is a sliding scale of Red/Blue and, in a general sense, there isn't any such distinctions; Texas is a Red State, but it does have Blue areas like Austin which would undoubtedly side with the opponents of Texas as a whole. Syria and Burma are thus models to look towards, in that you'll have lots of various armed groups, maybe under a general aegis or not, fighting over absolute border gore boundaries of territories. You'll see Right Wing Death Squads in upstate New York, while Antifa Anarcho-Communist factions run rampant in Nashville despite the Tennessee National Guard being on the frontlines as a whole.
As for what I said about May-June of 2020, I think there is a growing realization of just how close that time period really was. The White House was being besieged, while the military effectively announced they were siding with the rioters and wouldn't intervene; Bill Barr literally had to pull BoP personnel out of Texas just to ensure they had loyal cadres to defend critical infrastructure in the Capitol. The Black vans and Federal Agents in Seattle, much bemoaned by Leftist outlets at the time, was much the same story; Barr IIRC had pulled a bunch of BORTAC guys to do that because they simply didn't have anyone else.
Outside the halls of centralized power, as it was, you saw signs bubbling of a general discontent across the country start too. When word was Antifa was going to emerge from Seattle to start targeting nearby suburbs and small towns, you had the incident at Snohomish where hundreds if not thousands of residents organized themselves into ad hoc militia forces to contest such an event. Same thing happened in Florida, where the Sherriff of a county openly endorsed such and noted his residents were arming up to prevent such in their own home areas. Of note, by the way, is that the Sheriffs of both counties were later forced out by State officials which really should say a lot, I think.
In short, the Second Civil War will be everywhere, it will not have neat lines of control or possibly even a clear outbreak point. Most likely you have a contested election or some other event, central control breaks down and you start to see something of a Urban/rural divide form up as the suburbs and rural areas organize militias while gang forces themselves also organize as fighting forces. Forces currently under centralized control would come up for grabs; the official institutions might go one way, but given the rank and file demographics, you'd see a lot of desertion to the other side, up to and possibly including entire units or branches. State forces would mostly go with where the reality of their State is; Boise might go "Left" but the rest of Idaho and the majority of its NG would go "Right"
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