So, by Ukraine's standards... absolutely nothing new.
If Russia wasn't re-acquiring its western imperial holdings and setting up a nasty energy policy grift on Western Europe with intel investigation worthy shenanigans involving local socialist and green politicians, perhaps USA would not be so interested in stationing forces in Europe, they have enough on their plate with China.
By that same logic Russia is encroaching on Poland's, Latvia's and Romania's borders, so their allies are justified to react accordingly.
But that's the core of "fun" with Russia's made up rules around being the victim of western encroachment. It's always only Russia who has a license to be paranoid in these stories. No one else. *Especially* not the countries Russia preys upon.
Despite the fact that its only Russia grabbing territories in Eastern Europe by force, not NATO.
For all their excuse of fearing NATO tanks and missiles being too close, Russia does not lack military people who understand perfectly that USA at this moment struggles to gather the mettle to attack fucking Iran over last bloody decades, even though there is some support for it and Iran has no nukes yet. Nevermind Pakistan or North Korea.
And that's just USA, other big NATO players are even less militant.
How the fuck are western governments like that going to decide one day to start WW3 by attempting to surprise invade Russia, an opponent orders of magnitude more risky than the above 3? Its all theatrics for fun and profit. Makes idiot westerners shake in their boots, which in turn makes the local serfs feel a sliver of imperial pride and remind themselves that they need to support the Dear Leader.
They know if the west decides to actually fuck with them, its going to be economics first, and if they feel gutsy, some cloak&dagger crap, or dodgy NGOs stirring up local dissent, and for these things its irrelevant how far away NATO bases are.
Yeah, this is going to be a tough question for Ukraine (and also Russia) - the DNR/LNR region, thanks to the war and local warlord's warlord grade governance, the place has become a hot potato, with infrastructure and economics terrible even by Ukraine's general standard of everything sucking, which is quite something.
Who wants to spend big money on fixing this shit up and getting the local assholes back in line (or prison, or six feet under)?
Any volunteers? For one it doesn't seem like Russia is too eager to volunteer for that.
If Ukraine has to pay for all that, and on top of that pay some presumed price for a deal (which to add insult to injury, would probably give cover to local troublemakers), the overall calculation will absolutely make them question if its worth keeping the place.
Taking the place by force, if they can, means no political price and most of local troublemakers dying or escaping to Russia, but a price in military losses will be paid instead (questionable how big, depends how much Russia cares to aid the separatists), on top of local infrastructure getting even more destroyed in fighting.
The easiest scenario for Ukraine would be if the separatists or what's left of local population, disillusioned with years of Russia not jumping to their salvation with big aid packages, reconstruction funds etc. and merely keeping them on life support, decided that they are done with separatism and just want Ukraine to take them back. But that obviously is very unlikely.
