Tiamat
I've seen the future...
Looks like any immediate nuclear crisis might be over if this is true.
Let's hope. Someone was playing too damn much with dice rolls with that stupidity.
Looks like any immediate nuclear crisis might be over if this is true.
I'd say all is up to how much fight Ukrainians have in them. If they are willing to turn the country into urban warfare and guerilla hell, those kinds of battles usually took many months against much weaker, less equipped forces.
Considering the state of Russia's logistics, that's a stalemate.
True, that's why NATO wont cross that line 99% unless something unthinkable happens to change that calculus.
>OnceOh, the occupation will be hell for Russia. That doesn't change the fact that once Russia at least nominally takes the major cities and seals the borders, Russia's won.
Something like 40k Ukrainians came from the west to join territorial defense since the war started. Its a matter of breaking morale.Putin will gladly let the people who want to flee into the EU leave, which will substantially reduce a lot of the issues with occupation.
Between other spats starting now with Finland and Sweden, NATO tensions and so on, losses and war weariness, they may stretch themselves too thin to hold anything if they go that far.Russia will probably push to Ukraines border and grab Moldova to the Dniester river and then negotiate from that point, refusing to return any territory. Probably trading frozen Russian assets to the local population that leaves, to at least some extent.
But Russia won't push into Poland or Romania.
The problem is the Ukrainian goverment trying to forcibly conscript their own people who're trying to flee.Putin will gladly let the people who want to flee into the EU leave, which will substantially reduce a lot of the issues with occupation.
Look closely at the 2nd picture of the Tunguskas before the Molotovs were thrown.
The quality isn't good but there doesn't appear to be any sort of dirt and mud from driving across the border to Ukraine.
What I can see however is a bit of rust. Rust from sitting in a Ukrainian military warehouse since the end of the Soviet Union.
Thus, these are Ukrainian Tunguskas inherited from the USSR with "Z"s painted on. The camo is also lighter than the typical Russian type.
Also, look at the picture here.
grandpa from the Ukrainian Volkssturm with his double barreled shotgun.
Ukies are scraping the barrel now. The war is almost over.
Still, I can't wait to see Kadyrov's Chechens and the DPR troops crush the neo-Nazis of the Azov division at Mauripol.
Except that Russia will start by just, largely, ignoring the cities. They want the border (and river) crossings along with securing their lines of supply back to Russia proper. Once they have the nation's borders sealed, they will basically start surrounding cities and telling them that if they surrender, Russia will drive them to the border and let them out into the EU and if they don't want to surrender then Russia will just wait until the lack of food, water, heat, and power gets them to surrender anyways.>Once
Comparing time of battles for major cities in Syria, Iraq, and also in Chechnya...
That's something that tends to take months.
1-2 if done well or in smaller cities.
Few months if done normally.
Dozens of months if done badly.
And more than a million Ukrainians have already left.Something like 40k Ukrainians came from the west to join territorial defense since the war started. Its a matter of breaking morale.
Russia pulled the trigger, that means that Putin is prepared to go all the way and not back down. There is no real cost that is "too much" and will make Russia pull back.Between other spats starting now with Finland and Sweden, NATO tensions and so on, losses and war weariness, they may stretch themselves too thin to hold anything if they go that far.
No it's not...Russia has been cut off from the global economy. That is going to result in global recession and famine across much of the world. Europe is looking at an economic shock at least as bad as 2008 as a first order effect.
This is in a lot of way a castle problem. They can't turn their back on cities while dealing with the countryside, locking down cities busies a lot of forces, and there's a lot of countryside to pacify with so many forces busy locking down cities.Except that Russia will start by just, largely, ignoring the cities. They want the border (and river) crossings along with securing their lines of supply back to Russia proper. Once they have the nation's borders sealed, they will basically start surrounding cities and telling them that if they surrender, Russia will drive them to the border and let them out into the EU and if they don't want to surrender then Russia will just wait until the lack of food, water, heat, and power gets them to surrender anyways.
No, Russia is grabbing Ukraine for Putin's strategic position in history books. That's why most or all of it has to end up controlled. Details and specifics are adjustable, but guaranteed (not elections or other lottery) government taking commands from Moscow is a minimum.Russia isn't grabbing Ukraine for people (although they will gladly keep anyone willing to stay) or natural resources (although, again, they will gladly take it) but to grab key strategic choke points
Most of them not fighting age men anyway.And more than a million Ukrainians have already left.
Its not. They had many options of more limited operations with less ambitious goals.Russia pulled the trigger, that means that Putin is prepared to go all the way and not back down. There is no real cost that is "too much" and will make Russia pull back.
If Russia has to seal the borders and then basically starve out the Ukrainians town by town then they will do so. For Russia, this isn't a war for resources or the like; its a war of (long term) strategic necessity.
But does Putin have the biological clock to outlast anyone? He's a 70 year old man living in a lot of stress since decades.Russia has systemic issues internal to the nation that it needs to deal with, and the government is aware of this. One of the ways to buy time and security to deal with those problems is to secure critical locations that allow Russia to secure its borders with less manpower.
Russia has been cut off from the global economy. That is going to result in global recession and famine across much of the world. Europe is looking at an economic shock at least as bad as 2008 as a first order effect.
Even if Russia hadn't moved on Ukraine, the global economy has a lot of fairly existential issues baked in at the moment and could essentially implode at basically any time. That would destroy the Russian economy anyways.
So Russia moves on Ukraine, causing a global economic catastrophe. The Middle East is heavily reliant on Russian (and Ukrainian) agriculture to keep its population fed. The last time that food supply was disrupted, we got the Arab Spring. Russia has a secure route to Iran via the Caspian Sea, which means that they can keep Iran fed while encouraging them to disrupt the ME as a whole.
ME disruption will further disrupt global oil supplies.
China is very badly positioned when it comes to importing ME oil. It's much better positioned in terms of strategic vulnerability to importing Russian oil, nat gas, and food.
In terms of real assets, Russia is one of the world's wealthiest nations - especially on a per capita basis. In a world where global financial markets are fucked, the calculus changes. It probably won't work, but Russia and China working together can be a strong isolated power bloc.
Basically, Putin has decided that it is time to try and trigger de-globalization hard and break the international system.
Right now, everyone is standing together condemning Russia. But will that last when food riots are occuring? When Europe is suffering from rolling blackouts? When the US is faced with throwing back on the oil export ban or having two hundred dollar a barrel oil in the US? When Europe is brain draining into the US? When Germany is suddenly actually a military power again?
Remember, Germany needs raw material imports to feed its entire economy. It also needs energy imports. And yeah, Nord Stream 2 might be "shut down" but the physical infrastructure is all in place and it could be "turned on" with literally an order.
Domestically, Putin just has to keep his hold on Russia. So long as he remains in power and with the support of relevant local stakeholders, Putin has the time to outlast opposition.
The problem is the Ukrainian goverment trying to forcibly conscript their own people who're trying to flee.
Look closely at the 2nd picture of the Tunguskas before the Molotovs were thrown.
The quality isn't good but there doesn't appear to be any sort of dirt and mud from driving across the border to Ukraine.
What I can see however is a bit of rust. Rust from sitting in a Ukrainian military warehouse since the end of the Soviet Union.
Thus, these are Ukrainian Tunguskas inherited from the USSR with "Z"s painted on. The camo is also lighter than the typical Russian type.
Is this a regular thing for the Bundeswehr?
No it's not...
The Russia force is already largely conscripts. And no, simply locking down a city doesn't really need all that many ground forces if you are willing to be decently ruthless about it. So long as you can keep the city under surveillance and have decent coordination with your artillery, you can basically keep the city contained enough to let you ignore it.This is in a lot of way a castle problem. They can't turn their back on cities while dealing with the countryside, locking down cities busies a lot of forces, and there's a lot of countryside to pacify with so many forces busy locking down cities.
The only simple solution here is more forces. Which means draft. Which will hit both the political side, and increase losses.
Russia isn't grabbing Ukraine because Putin wants to be a conqueror.No, Russia is grabbing Ukraine for Putin's strategic position in history books. That's why most or all of it has to end up controlled. Details and specifics are adjustable, but guaranteed (not elections or other lottery) government taking commands from Moscow is a minimum.
Ukraine is still losing them in substantial numbers.Most of them not fighting age men anyway.
Not really. The goals that Russia cares about are all on the Western edge of Ukraine. The only "lesser" goal that Russia could credibly have gone for is everything east of the Dnieper River; and the expected consequences of trying that are identical to the consequences for grabbing all of Ukraine.Its not. They had many options of more limited operations with less ambitious goals.
But being less ambitious doesn't look good in the history books, especially if you have spent years claiming that Ukraine and even beyond are all rightfully Russian and Russia was cheated out of them by the fall of USSR and events after it. Putin expected a glorious easy win and miscalculated badly, he's getting a win after a brutal slog, with some unexpected chances of not even getting a win at all.
He's got another decade.But does Putin have the biological clock to outlast anyone? He's a 70 year old man living in a lot of stress since decades.
Define wealth. Because Dollars and Euros aren't really wealth.Russia's wealth reserves can last it a few years if used well. But its Russia, so at least half will get siphoned off, leaving 1-2 years at best.
Nations that are entirely reliant on fertilizer for their food production. Nations that have transport costs at least twice as high as Russia's. Nations whose food products are already spoken for on the global market.Food riots? Arab Spring was a problem of mostly the kind of ME countries that weren't oil wealthy, or couldn't apply that properly for other reasons (Iraq). For those who are, there is always Brazil, Africa and so on food wise.
Most of Europe is critically reliant on Russian energy. Not just for electricity or heating, but also for industrial processes. Without Russian gas, you are looking at substantial inflation in Europe at best. Now, again, throw in the loss of the Russian market and the GLOBAL loss in excess money as everyone's energy and food prices increase. Europe's economy is driven by the export of what are, largely, luxury goods.Likewise, only few EU countries have committed heavily to a gas heavy energy sector already. Sure, the greens will need to accept some very bad news, but that's great news for everyone else, their ideas for how to run countries were bad anyway.
So multiple mews networks have stated that. Top Russian general has been killed by a sniper.
Not just US either.
Except that Russia will start by just, largely, ignoring the cities. They want the border (and river) crossings along with securing their lines of supply back to Russia proper. Once they have the nation's borders sealed, they will basically start surrounding cities and telling them that if they surrender, Russia will drive them to the border and let them out into the EU and if they don't want to surrender then Russia will just wait until the lack of food, water, heat, and power gets them to surrender anyways.
Russia isn't grabbing Ukraine for people (although they will gladly keep anyone willing to stay) or natural resources (although, again, they will gladly take it) but to grab key strategic choke points
And more than a million Ukrainians have already left.
Russia pulled the trigger, that means that Putin is prepared to go all the way and not back down. There is no real cost that is "too much" and will make Russia pull back.
If Russia has to seal the borders and then basically starve out the Ukrainians town by town then they will do so. For Russia, this isn't a war for resources or the like; its a war of (long term) strategic necessity.
Russia has systemic issues internal to the nation that it needs to deal with, and the government is aware of this. One of the ways to buy time and security to deal with those problems is to secure critical locations that allow Russia to secure its borders with less manpower.
Russia has been cut off from the global economy. That is going to result in global recession and famine across much of the world. Europe is looking at an economic shock at least as bad as 2008 as a first order effect.
Even if Russia hadn't moved on Ukraine, the global economy has a lot of fairly existential issues baked in at the moment and could essentially implode at basically any time. That would destroy the Russian economy anyways.
So Russia moves on Ukraine, causing a global economic catastrophe. The Middle East is heavily reliant on Russian (and Ukrainian) agriculture to keep its population fed. The last time that food supply was disrupted, we got the Arab Spring. Russia has a secure route to Iran via the Caspian Sea, which means that they can keep Iran fed while encouraging them to disrupt the ME as a whole.
ME disruption will further disrupt global oil supplies.
China is very badly positioned when it comes to importing ME oil. It's much better positioned in terms of strategic vulnerability to importing Russian oil, nat gas, and food.
In terms of real assets, Russia is one of the world's wealthiest nations - especially on a per capita basis. In a world where global financial markets are fucked, the calculus changes. It probably won't work, but Russia and China working together can be a strong isolated power bloc.
Basically, Putin has decided that it is time to try and trigger de-globalization hard and break the international system.
Right now, everyone is standing together condemning Russia. But will that last when food riots are occuring? When Europe is suffering from rolling blackouts? When the US is faced with throwing back on the oil export ban or having two hundred dollar a barrel oil in the US? When Europe is brain draining into the US? When Germany is suddenly actually a military power again?
Remember, Germany needs raw material imports to feed its entire economy. It also needs energy imports. And yeah, Nord Stream 2 might be "shut down" but the physical infrastructure is all in place and it could be "turned on" with literally an order.
Domestically, Putin just has to keep his hold on Russia. So long as he remains in power and with the support of relevant local stakeholders, Putin has the time to outlast opposition.
So between this and Hannity calling for the Russian military to coup Putin, it's starting to seem like the DC establishment may be willing to risk WW3 to get rid of Putin.