Russian Invasion of Ukraine 2022

[Chiron]

I concur with with Bill's analysis.

 

[Floridaman]

I concur with with Bill's analysis.

is cities surrendering with minimal urban fighting surprising? We remember Stalingrad and the battle of Berlin because they are the hellish exception rather than the rule.

 

[The Original Sixth]

I concur with with Bill's analysis.

Yep, this. I again, do not think that the majority of the Ukrainian people welcome this invasion by Russia, but that isn't enough for them to fight and die for their government--who are really the ones at risk here. It is worth noting that said city is closer to Russia and under greater Russian influence. I don't expect Kiev to fall so easily. Still, this is not a good sign for Kiev.

is cities surrendering with minimal urban fighting surprising? We remember Stalingrad and the battle of Berlin because they are the hellish exception rather than the rule.

Well, yes and no. Remember that Zelensky has made an appeal to the Ukrainian populace to fight and resist the Russians. The fact that this city did not fight tooth and nail may be an indication that most or all of these cities will not follow their leader's command. What's more, the more cities that fall this quickly and easily, the more others will fall, following those examples. Especially if the Russians are civil. Or if they follow the expected plan of replacing Kiev's leadership with puppet leaders.

That doesn't mean that there isn't a resistance movement there or in any city that falls. There will be, but the indication here (although again, I stress it is too soon to tell) is that the civilians are going to fall in line. And if that's the case, then the resistance movements there are going to have to play hide and seek with the KGB. Not a game I'd want to play.

 

[Floridaman]

Yep, this. I again, do not think that the majority of the Ukrainian people welcome this invasion by Russia, but that isn't enough for them to fight and die for their government--who are really the ones at risk here. It is worth noting that said city is closer to Russia and under greater Russian influence. I don't expect Kiev to fall so easily. Still, this is not a good sign for Kiev.



Well, yes and no. Remember that Zelensky has made an appeal to the Ukrainian populace to fight and resist the Russians. The fact that this city did not fight tooth and nail may be an indication that most or all of these cities will not follow their leader's command. What's more, the more cities that fall this quickly and easily, the more others will fall, following those examples. Especially if the Russians are civil. Or if they follow the expected plan of replacing Kiev's leadership with puppet leaders.

That doesn't mean that there isn't a resistance movement there or in any city that falls. There will be, but the indication here (although again, I stress it is too soon to tell) is that the civilians are going to fall in line. And if that's the case, then the resistance movements there are going to have to play hide and seek with the KGB. Not a game I'd want to play.

FSB, the federal security bureau in english, the kgb was abolished with the Soviet Union although both them and the FSB are internal security controlling resistance movements would be more the realm of the Gru.

 

[Chiron]

The Doc lays out why this war will most certainly cause the economies of the EU and US to collapse.

Putin has nothing to fear. EU has 12 days of oil without Putin's exports.



Looks like the Thermobarics are being unleashed on Kyiv.



Good point.



UkA SOF has been quiet of late, but not for the reason he thinks. Most were likely destroyed by the 2nd echelon while launching counter-attacks.

So those that are left are likely in the pocketed cities or guarding Zelensky himself.



Well the MSM and UkA cheerleaders are about to have a rude awakening.

 

[Carrot of Truth]

Thats just realpolitik all the moral grandstanding is just that empty moral grandstanding.

 

[posh-goofiness]

Not sure if this should go here or the derail thread but:

Defence With A 'C' (@defencewithac)

I legitimately would have a good 10 minute laugh. In respect to prices, wages are also a consideration. But like I said, I agree with you to a fair extent that the essentials will remain fine, but the middle classes might become a bit peeved.

nitter.net

This thread on the sanction consequences for the Russian people seems quite prescient. Little to no day to day change, luxury cost increases. Little internal pressure for Russia to worry about.

 

[Floridaman]

Not sure if this should go here or the derail thread but:

Defence With A 'C' (@defencewithac)

I legitimately would have a good 10 minute laugh. In respect to prices, wages are also a consideration. But like I said, I agree with you to a fair extent that the essentials will remain fine, but the middle classes might become a bit peeved.

nitter.net

This thread on the sanction consequences for the Russian people seems quite prescient. Little to no day to day change, luxury cost increases. Little internal pressure for Russia to worry about.

Don’t forget we also excluded energy, since $10 gas would bring the west to revolution, rather than their goal of destabilizing Russia.

 

[sillygoose]

Don’t forget we also excluded energy, since $10 gas would bring the west to revolution, rather than their goal of destabilizing Russia.

Yep, the sanctions are mostly for show, because doing something serious would hurt the West more than Russia.

 

[Chiron]

We are now moving fully into the Deep Battle Phase. Checkmate. War is pretty much done now and a decisive Russian Victory.

Zelensky can throw in the towel and go in person to end the fighting or he can continue and die an honorable death.

 

[JagerIV]

We killed kids in Iraq and A-stan, not to mention Vietnam and Korea.

We can condemn what Putin is doing, without pretending our own shit doesn't stink or that we so 'morally superior' the Russians.

We cannot let ourselves become ok with increasing censorship, decreasing freedom, and increasing authoritarianism, just because they are aiming a lot of their efforts at Putin/Russia, currently.

This is why I was so blackpilled earlier: this is a perfect excuse to go after anyone right of Mao who the government wants to get rid of. I think this is why so many people reacted so viscerally to people like short fat Otako (youtube streamer) who talked as though the US was in the moral equivalent of war, because if the is allowed, then that gives Biden basically infinite moral justification to go after anyone he wants.

Because the drop happend at night. I have yet to see Russia deny these claims.
The US confirmed two full IL-76s destroyed in the air

I mean, with all the increasing censorship of Russian sources, if the Russians did deny it, would we even know? I know everything I hear about the Russians at this point is basically through a Ukrainian or anti Russian source more or less by default. And as we know, the US and Western Media lie about everything.

 

[Chiron]

A reminder that the EU has no cards to play.



Bill reliving the fall of Afghanistan. If he weren't a neocon, we'd be friends. At least he doesn't drink his own Kool-Aide and I can respect that as it makes an adult conversation possible.

 

[Carrot of Truth]

Pretty certain that if against all odds Zelenskyy and Ukraine makes it out of this then he will end up becoming the mirror image of Putin politically since hes already a kleptocrat.

 

[WolfBear]

Ukraine crisis: Russian news agency deletes victory editorial

Piece which prematurely claimed "Ukraine has returned to Russia" is still visible to internet users.

www.bbc.com

 

[Carrot of Truth]

That is a galaxy brain strategy, Seems more like the Russians just fucked up and expected the Ukrainians to roll over and then they didn't so now they have to actually get serious.

 

[WolfBear]

Ok, I knew it was somewhere.

Also this.

Included for completeness, but these are old TO&Es and largely abandoned in the late 90s.

The first 2 will largely explain what we are actually seeing and how the Russians actually had this all under control from the beginning. Now there has been a lot of evolution in these doctrines since the 80s, but at their base, its still the same script just updated for new modern inventions such as social media and smart phones.

Sucks for the 1st echelon troops who got Zapp Branniganed in order to trick Zelensky into not mobilizing. But they did the job, and UkA frittered away its SOF in local counter-attacks that weren't strong enough to actually stop the invasion.

This enabled the 2nd echelon to go in and pocket up the SOF and mobile reserves and break open the door for the reserves in the 3rd echelon.

Then why exactly did Russia have a victory editorial ready to run in late February 2022?

 

[WolfBear]

That is a galaxy brain strategy, Seems more like the Russians just fucked up and expected the Ukrainians to roll over and then they didn't so now they have to actually get serious.

Sounds like the modern equivalent of Maurice Gamelin's 666-D chess move in WWII to fight Germany to the last Russian, Brit, and American!

Also:

Hundreds Dead After Russian Bombs Hammer Ukrainian City of Mariupol, Official Says

The southeastern port city was totally surrounded by Russian troops before the shelling began.

www.thedailybeast.com

China Asked Russia to Delay Ukraine War Until After Olympics, U.S. Officials Say (Published 2022)

A Western intelligence report indicates that Chinese officials had some level of direct knowledge about President Vladimir V. Putin’s war plans or intentions.

www.nytimes.com

 

[SchrodingersWehraboo]

Not just Latin America.





(See also, my post in the Chinese news thread)

 

[Buba]

Since we're approaching the Rasputitsa season, would the presence of muddy roads actually help Ukraine though? Moreover, the weather is fast approaching spring, so there wouldn't be a need for Russian gas for heating.

1 - things have moved forward since 1945 a bit - nowadays there are quite a few asphalt roads in Ukraine ...
2 - due to the hysteria over the AGW hoax and actions of Gazprom-funded anti-nuke nitwits gas is also used for power generation and other industrial purposes. Last year, due to weak winds, gas was used throughout the summer for electricity making ...
Household heating is some 30-50% of total gas use. True that spring (hehe - it was -6C at 7AM where I live ) is here - which will help

 

[Bassoe]

The Ukrainian goverment is also attempting to forcibly conscript all their own men, so race isn't an issue.