Russian Invasion of Ukraine 2022

[SchrodingersWehraboo]

“I deliberately threw explosives at a vehicle full of destructive ordinance, and now the resulting detonation has leveled the street. How could this happen?”

 

[PsihoKekec]

Well at least they finally captured it after having been reported to have captured it on the first day of the War.

There was no declaration, there were wild rumours of naval and airborne landings all over the place.

KGB (or whatever they call themselves these days)

Counterintelligence service is FSB (have lot of experience from Chechnia and Dagestan), intelligence service is SVR and military intelligence/counterintelligence is GRU.

That doesn't mean that there isn't a resistance movement there or in any city that falls.

We do know that there is civilian resistance in Kherson, there were several individuals and small groups killed attacking the Russian forces.

Since we're approaching the Rasputitsa season, would the presence of muddy roads actually help Ukraine though?

To an extent, wheeled vehicles are considerably slower off the paved roads, tracked vehicles are not affected that much.

 

[Captain X]

If one is pro-Russia here, they are pro-war. I'm anti-war and pro-Ukraine defending itself.

 

[Firebat]

War is ultimately about economics, and production

AVTOVAZ, the largest car manufacturer in Russia, will stop production on 5th of March.
As of now there is no set date when the production is to resume.

 

[Terthna]

If one is pro-Russia here, they are pro-war. I'm anti-war and pro-Ukraine defending itself.

 

[Marduk]

Is that what they'd tell the pilots though?



A thought I had on that...
If the Ukrainian Nationalists really hoped that the West would support them in having their own country in which their nation could live as an independent people, being ruled by their own kind, etc... they would have likely been cruelly disappointed anyway.
Current Western regimes don't believe in the right of ethnic self-determination even for their own people!
If Ukraine had been absorbed into NATO and/or the EU, how long before the demand would come to open the floodgates for mass immigration from Africa or the Middle-East?
Leftist academics smugly proclaiming that Ukrainians had no culture of their own and needed to be "enriched" by Nigerians or Yemenis?
And so on.

They might find themselves being heavily oppressed by the Russians - but the Russians at least do not want to genocide them and replace them with Third-World immigrants.

Conterpoint: Whatever the EU whines, V4 and the like prove that its perfectly possible to tell them to fuck off. Which Ukrainians absolutely would have.
Meanwhile, look at the UK - they can leave the EU, but EU stupidity is sure not leaving them, because their own political class swallowed it no less than the bureaucrats in Brussels.

 

[Agent23]

AVTOVAZ, the largest car manufacturer in Russia, will stop production on 5th of March.
As of now there is no set date when the production is to resume.

They do a lot of subcontract work for foreign companies which said they are going out of Russia.

 

[Agent23]

BPS is doing a livestream with some Ukrainian dude,and the guy's take is more nuanced and pro-Ukraine than the stuff BPS and CRP have said before, this guy sounds like he and the rest of the Ukrainians would be happy with a partition, says most pro-Ukrainian people are leaving eastern Ukraine,basically.Husky Karen and the Poles will probably enjoy it.

 

[Marduk]

Well, it's likely a factor; I'll grant you that much. All the more reason though to denounce the coup, and America/Europe's role in it, as well as their insistence on pushing NATO to Russia's border; because without that, Russia wouldn't have the justification to go in.

And now you are making up your very own, personally approved international order for everyone to follow... that no country cares about, it exists only as a framework to fit your Russia apologia.
Let's see what's Russia's official justification for going in.

Yeah, its the hastily drawn up alliance/recognition with the separatist republics being triggered by the usual skirmishing on their borders.
I repeat again, this whole mess has started before even Yanukovych was overthrown.
Yanukovych was overthrown because he got reined in hard by Russia after he started thinking of getting an association deal with the EU, giving him an appearance of being Putin's servant.
There was no serious talk about NATO until Crimea and separatists.
Want to know a fun fact about the EU?
Its not NATO.

Yeah, it is true Putin would hate Ukraine joining NATO, but contrary to what some are implying here, this is not the end of Putin's demands regarding its sovereign foreign and domestic decisions, it is merely the beginning of a very long list. Putin's main problem with Ukraine in NATO or EU is that it would severely compromise his ability to "persuade" Ukraine to fulfill the rest of said list.

Putin's the one that called them an "artificial country"; I'm asserting that they're a country run by an illegitimate government.

I'm pretty sure Putin's actions are directed by what Putin thinks, not what you think.

 

[Chiron]

Then why exactly did Russia have a victory editorial ready to run in late February 2022?

The same reason the US has all sorts of pre-made speeches if we go to war with Britain. It never hurts to be prepared.

That said:

Another operational pocket formed to link Kharkiv and Luhansk, and more operational break throughs.

Also looks like an Izium-Kramatorsk Pocket is forming. Tokmak is being pocketed as well. Expect more OMGs of the 3rd Echelon to begin operations in the next 12 to 18 hours. Also expect the reorganized units of the 1st echelons to re-engage as the pockets are reduced and replacements arrive and stragglers re-integrated, plus officers who ran thoroughly replaced by those who fought.



Use of pontoon bridges in evidence as the OMGs go in.



Who could have seen that coming...

 

[Chiron]

Ukrainian Surrenders are picking up as the pockets are reduced.



Looks like another OMG, likely reorganized 1st echelon forces.

 

[Agent23]

Ukrainian Surrenders are picking up as the pockets are reduced.



Looks like another OMG, likely reorganized 1st echelon forces.

@Abhorsen ^^^


Looks like the cauldrons are snapping shut,boiling what is inside,then becoming part of bigger cauldrons.

 

[Chiron]

@Abhorsen ^^^


Looks like the cauldrons are snapping shut,boiling what is inside,then becoming part of bigger cauldrons.

Spoiler: Spoiled for the body, not exactly graphic, but still I will err under caution

UkA SOF AT Teams are declining in effectiveness. UkA was forced to fritter them away in local counter-attacks on the 1st Echelon, and while they had many successes, local-counter attacks are militarily useless at the operational level and these troops who would have been better served fighting in the cities or as part of a Corps Level Counter-Attack were wasted in open field battles with mechanized forces for no operational advantages.

 

[liberty90]

I expect martial law to be declared in Russia tonight or tomorrow, and I'm not alone in this expectation. I know that many western-inclined people try to escape before this day ends.

 

[Agent23]

Spoiler: Spoiled for the body, not exactly graphic, but still I will err under caution

UkA SOF AT Teams are declining in effectiveness. UkA was forced to fritter them away in local counter-attacks on the 1st Echelon, and while they had many successes, local-counter attacks are militarily useless at the operational level and these troops who would have been better served fighting in the cities or as part of a Corps Level Counter-Attack were wasted in open field battles with mechanized forces for no operational advantages.

Yeah, that too,they sacrificed a lot of old tech to bog down and fragment the Ukrainians, and the multiple lines of attack split them up.

I am pretty sure that a large portion of that 40km column around Kiev will probably start driving down the Dnieper at some point in the not too distant future.

That will likely be the final cauldron, with sideshows in the south and north-west, keeping what is left of the Ukrainian army guessing.

 

[Wargamer08]

I expect martial law to be declared in Russia tonight or tomorrow, and I'm not alone in this expectation. I know that many western-inclined people try to escape before this day ends.

I mean, any idea why? The protests didn't seem all that serious or big in Russia.

 

[liberty90]

I mean, any idea why? The protests didn't seem all that serious or big in Russia.

I may be wrong: we will see soon enough! ^ ^


Edit: if I would speculate, I would say that economic situation and opinions of oligarchs are far from ideal and Putin may need to depend much more on the armed forces.

 

[Chiron]

Yeah, that too,they sacrificed a lot of old tech to bog down and fragment the Ukrainians, and the multiple lines of attack split them up.

I am pretty sure that a large portion of that 40km column around Kiev will probably start driving down the Dnieper at some point in the not too distant future.

That will likely be the final cauldron, with sideshows in the south and north-west, keeping what is left of the Ukrainian army guessing.

Note the NLAWs packing crates at the end of this video. A good indicator of the Deep Battle occurring.



Humor never dies.



Thats actually a catchy tune. Anyone know its name?

 

[The Original Sixth]

I thought this would be a good article to share.

Putin is not crazy and the Russian invasion is not failing. The West's delusions about this war - and its failure to understand the enemy - will prevent it from saving Ukraine

Wishful thinking has the upper hand in the battle to shape Western perceptions of the war in Ukraine. Sympathy for the outnumbered and outgunned defenders of Kyiv has led to the exaggeration of Russian...

www.fdd.org

And it looks like good old fashioned incompetence/corruption has led to a lot of the broken down Russian vehicles.

 

[Zachowon]

And you know this.....how?



I'm not confusing ot misreading anything, I freely admit I have no idea what's going because I don't have the information, background, or skillset to make a clear judgement of what's happening, and I'm not following events closely precisely because trying to do is a waste of time given that I can't meaningful do anything what whatever information I collect.

What I find questionable is how you, someone that is equally as unqualified and lacking a clear view of what's happening, can possibly be so certain you're right.



I don't think a revitalized and expanding NATO, Western nations doing everything they can to inflict economic damage on Russia in response to this, 8ncluding possibly moving away from Russian energy trade to give them space for severe sanctions, and a possible years long Western backed insurgency in Ukraine is cheap. Sure, maybe the immediate term military loses are survivable, but long term.....I don't see how this works out for Russia, particularly because they're not actually gaining anything of value.

And that's if they actually win, which is not certain. Likely, yes, but not certain.

It is not certain.
Nothing is certain.

I also think o am qualified in this field

In other news Suny oblast seems to be tough fighting for both



Moscow confirmed a general died