Russia-Ukraine War Politics Thread Mk. 2

You tried to put words in my mouth about what I want. I told you what I actually want. I think that solution is the one that leads to most stability.
So, you want a plan that neither side wants, neither side could trust, and at least one side realistically will never sign until a major change in its political administration.
That is the definition of wishful thinking, not stability.
What I reaally want though, is for this war to end. If that means Russia gets a small strip of land on the other side of the world? I don't really care that much.
Except that neither of the actual involved sides thinks this way *at all*, i'm not even sure most naive of Western European politicians would think it realistic. That you, a distant and ill informed observer would wish so, matters nothing to either side.
For Ukraine, it's about keeping de facto independence, for Russia, it's about getting Ukraine into its "Imperial restoration project", "Russian world" or whatever one wants it called, either way to the point that Ukraine would either become a part of Russia, its close ally, or at least remain open to future Russian attempts to make it so by whatever means Russia feels like using.
The small strip of land is the hook, not the prize Russia wants, if Russia would manage to get it, it would instantly start working on setting up another hook to reel the rest of Ukraine with.
You guys can call me pro Russia all you want, I just don't live in the world where Russia winning cities is a bad thing for Russia.
It's not the winning cities that's bad for Russia, it's the price Russia pays for winning even small cities that's a bad thing for Russia, and it's going to be a catastrophic thing for Russia if it keeps winning more cities at such pricing rate.
 
For Ukraine, it's about keeping de facto independence, for Russia, it's about getting Ukraine into its "Imperial restoration project", "Russian world" or whatever one wants it called, either way to the point that Ukraine would either become a part of Russia, its close ally, or at least remain open to future Russian attempts to make it so by whatever means Russia feels like using.
Well put.

For Kyiv it’s about the very survival of the “Holy Ukrainian Fatherland.”

For Moscow its about the restoration of the Empire.

These two goals are so diametrically opposed, that neither side can back down until the other breaks. It’s a fight to the finish and anyone who says otherwise is delusional.
 

Link the actual pew study not some twatter interpretation of it

I can't help but notice that "how important is this to you" does not specify "which side do you support".

The pew study was asking about both russia-ukraine conflict and israel-hamas conflict.

The latter in particular is quite divided on which side to support.
with democrats being overwhelmingly pro hamas and republicans overwhelmingly pro israel.
But the pew study completely ignored which side you support in each conflict.

> 74% view it as important to USA national interest
> 59% view it as important to them personally

I find this discrepancy amusing. As it basically means 15% of the pop have a clear distinction between their own interests and that of the ruling class.
Saying they do not give a fuck, but they think the ruling class does.

Also, it uses deceptive wording. and lumps together people who gave an ambivalent "somewhat" answer.

They won't give the exact question they asked on this study (unlike other studies where they do). But it is pretty clear they went up to people and asked "how much do you care about ukraine-russian war?" and the response options were:
"not at all" "somewhat" and "very"

then they lumped together all the "somewhat" and "very" as a "pro ukraine supporter".

Here is a better study from pew.
"The US is providing ____ support to ukraine"
Republicans:
48% too much
20% about right
13% not enough

Total:
31% too much
29% about right
18% not enough

Democrat:
16% too much
39% about right
24% not enough
 
You tried to put words in my mouth about what I want. I told you what I actually want. I think that solution is the one that leads to most stability.

You guys can call me pro Russia all you want, I just don't live in the world where Russia winning cities is a bad thing for Russia.
It's quite something for you to accuse other people of putting words in your mouth, then turn right around and do the same thing.

As Marduk put it quite well, it's not taking the city that's a bad thing for Russia, it's the price it paid to take the city that's the bad thing for Russia.

I don't think anyone on any of the Ukraine war threads has been arguing otherwise.
 
Ah yes..air power.

And how would you do all these things if enemy SAMs that were being coordinated by the very untouchable AWACs planes made using mass airpower very costly?
F-16 and HARM missiles. Along with better Western artillery and cruise missiles.

F-15, F-16 and Aegis ships have had anti-satellite weapons since 1985 and the ships from 1997 onwards. The Russians are outmatched in that regard. DARPA had a three hundred megawatt anti-satellite laser test in 1988 - 1993. I wonder what they have now.
 
F-16 and HARM missiles. Along with better Western artillery and cruise missiles.

F-15, F-16 and Aegis ships have had anti-satellite weapons since 1985 and the ships from 1997 onwards. The Russians are outmatched in that regard. DARPA had a three hundred megawatt anti-satellite laser test in 1988 - 1993. I wonder what they have now.

60 F-16's aren't enough to make a significant difference. At bare minimum half of them will need to be held in reserve, either for spare parts or for attrition.
 
I'm going to be honest, 10 F16s could destroy the entire russian airforce.
Sure, if they caught the whole Russian Air Force on the ground.

Reasonably, Russia's better aircraft are on a competitive level with F-16s. I'd expect the F-16s to perform better if the pilots are trained to western standards, but 10 isn't going to get the whole job done all by themselves.

60 may be enough to usefully turn the tide in supporting the ground war.

May.

I'm not that optimistic, but it'd be nice.


I would expect 60 to be enough that Russian air superiority never recovers, given how hardcore the Ukrainians are at getting mileage out of equipment.
 
60 F-16's aren't enough to make a significant difference. At bare minimum half of them will need to be held in reserve, either for spare parts or for attrition.
Well, parts are separate, and are in production, so it should not be necessary.
Also depends what F-16's. It could be F-16AM/BM block 15's like the ones Netherlands are sending with a variety of smaller mods, with a lot of 90's era tech, so only a gradual upgrade over what they have now, though more compatible with NATO weapons, but in the meantime they could also be upgraded with some new, shiny gadgets, which would make them close to gen 4.5 fighters, nevermind something like the newest V variant with AESA radar and many other upgrades.
The rumors i saw are that they will be roughly block 50 plus equivalent, fitted with parts left over after US F-16's get upgraded to the V standard.
 
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Their most common fighters, the Su-27 and its variants, were designed to fight the f14. The F16, meanwhile, was designed to beat the f15 and did so with ease.

Sure, if they caught the whole Russian Air Force on the ground.

Reasonably, Russia's better aircraft are on a competitive level with F-16s. I'd expect the F-16s to perform better if the pilots are trained to western standards, but 10 isn't going to get the whole job done all by themselves.

In theory they are on par with the F16s, the same theory that says their Su-57 is on par with an F22.

So, you know, not all that accurate in practice. But yes, I wasn't referring to all of what russia had against only 10 fighters, more just a series of skirmishes.

60 may be enough to usefully turn the tide in supporting the ground war.

May.

I'm not that optimistic, but it'd be nice.


I would expect 60 to be enough that Russian air superiority never recovers, given how hardcore the Ukrainians are at getting mileage out of equipment.

But on this point... I think 60 fighters is actually just more than russia actually has available? I can't find hard numbers, but pre-war numbers say they had between 40 and 50 fighters, at this point I wouldn't be surprised if it were lower than that.
 
Their most common fighters, the Su-27 and its variants, were designed to fight the f14. The F16, meanwhile, was designed to beat the f15 and did so with ease.

Russian doctrine which is descended from Soviet doctrine is to neutralize airpower with their SAM systems while they hurl a fuck load of artillery. Their SAM systems have since the 90's proven very effective at defeating older US aircraft like the F-16. If it was the F-22 Raptor that would be a different story, But F-16's are not the wunderwaffen to change the course of the conflict.
 
Russian doctrine which is descended from Soviet doctrine is to neutralize airpower with their SAM systems while they hurl a fuck load of artillery. Their SAM systems have since the 90's proven very effective at defeating older US aircraft like the F-16. If it was the F-22 Raptor that would be a different story, But F-16's are not the wunderwaffen to change the course of the conflict.

Which works for defensive operations. You want to know what it doesn't work with? Offensive ones.
 
Russian doctrine which is descended from Soviet doctrine is to neutralize airpower with their SAM systems while they hurl a fuck load of artillery. Their SAM systems have since the 90's proven very effective at defeating older US aircraft like the F-16. If it was the F-22 Raptor that would be a different story, But F-16's are not the wunderwaffen to change the course of the conflict.
That's the theory.
In practice they have manged to eliminate only some of late 80's era Soviet aircraft Ukraine had, and the experiments with HARM and MALD jury rigged onto them are not looking good for it.
One major point is that HARM will have better targeting modes available when firing from a properly integrated western aircraft.
As far as we have real world data from elsewhere, its just with the export models, but it seems Israeli F-16's were handling Syrian AD, but then again, that's an Arab army situation so anything can happen.
 
60 F-16's aren't enough to make a significant difference. At bare minimum half of them will need to be held in reserve, either for spare parts or for attrition.
I was replying to the numbnuts who thinks Russia would win if it directly engaged NATO.

The weapons I stated started with the F-15 they've since been modernized and can be launched by any US fighter platform.
 
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I have no idea why this appeared on my feed but now I can't unsee the image of USN sailors in Tiaras and YMCA costumes while singing and dancing as they carry out duties or fight the ship.
 

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