Russia-Ukraine War Politics Thread Mk. 2

[Bacle]

That's functionally the same thing since he's the one controlling their nuclear arsenal.

No, as I have said here and elsewhere, the Russia nuclear command requires 3 people at the top to OK usage, not just 2 like the US does, and the other 2 code-holders are not interested in nuclear suicide.

The chain of command for potential Russian nuclear strikes

Russian President Vladimir Putin said at the weekend that his nation's nuclear forces should be put on high alert, raising fears that Russia's invasion of Ukraine could lead to nuclear escalation.

www.reuters.com

 

[LordsFire]

From my perspective as an average American civilian, it would seem that the better they do, the more danger we're in, and it'd have been preferable for Russia to have actually managed the three-day "special operation" invasion they planned and present their victory as a fait accompli over the current status quo.

This is one of the most detached from reality things I've seen you say.

How on earth does an enemy of the USA becoming wealthier and more powerful in any way help us?

 

[Zachowon]

This is one of the most detached from reality things I've seen you say.

How on earth does an enemy of the USA becoming wealthier and more powerful in any way help us?

Ultimate Neocon strategy?
Lead America to war to benefit us in the end

 

[Bacle]

@Abhorsen @DarthOne @Rocinante @mrttao

Straight from the mouth of Russian media and the head of one of the occupier admins.

They want far more than Ukraine, and will go after NATO states if they are able to force Ukraine to give up land, and think that they are 'saving Europe from being the next Sodom and Gamorrah'.

So please tell me again why any deal made with the Russians should be trusted to be worth anything, when the Russian people want their empire back, and are making clear that this whole invasion of Ukraine was just going to be a first step?

 

[Abhorsen]

@Abhorsen @DarthOne @Rocinante @mrttao

Straight from the mouth of Russian media and the head of one of the occupier admins.

They want far more than Ukraine, and will go after NATO states if they are able to force Ukraine to give up land, and think that they are 'saving Europe from being the next Sodom and Gamorrah'.

So please tell me again why any deal made with the Russians should be trusted to be worth anything, when the Russian people want their empire back, and are making clear that this whole invasion of Ukraine was just going to be a first step?

... Wow, who's believing Russian posturing now? I don't believe Russia on a lot of things they say, this is yet another thing I don't believe they believe. After Ukraine, if they got all of it, they'd go after Moldova. If they don't get all of Ukraine, they'll go after Ukraine again if Ukraine isn't in NATO.

They are never going to go after Poland or the Baltics cause NATO and Russia's poor showing in Ukraine.

Again, the US should go for simple contain strategy on Russia: give them Crimea, maybe the Donbass etc regions, and Ukraine goes into NATO. Or let Russia completely conquer Ukraine if Ukraine doesn't go back to an actual democracy and deal with its corruption. Ukraine isn't US business, and I don't care about defending awfully led governments.

Honestly, invite both Russia and Ukraine in as a partial NATO member for all I care, with an understanding that Article Five applies between those two countries attacking each other, as long as Russia stops supporting the Norks, or at least deports North Korean refugees to South Korea..

 

[DarthOne]

@Abhorsen @DarthOne @Rocinante @mrttao

Straight from the mouth of Russian media and the head of one of the occupier admins.

They want far more than Ukraine, and will go after NATO states if they are able to force Ukraine to give up land, and think that they are 'saving Europe from being the next Sodom and Gamorrah'.

So please tell me again why any deal made with the Russians should be trusted to be worth anything, when the Russian people want their empire back, and are making clear that this whole invasion of Ukraine was just going to be a first step?

Talk is cheap. Doesn’t mean they actually have the means to carry it out. They can want to do whatever but if they don’t have the resources, manpower, political will or some mix of them, they can’t.

Assuming that it’s all not just propaganda to keep the Russian people going and make them think they have a chance of doing that.

 

[Rocinante]

@Abhorsen @DarthOne @Rocinante @mrttao

Straight from the mouth of Russian media and the head of one of the occupier admins.

They want far more than Ukraine, and will go after NATO states if they are able to force Ukraine to give up land, and think that they are 'saving Europe from being the next Sodom and Gamorrah'.

So please tell me again why any deal made with the Russians should be trusted to be worth anything, when the Russian people want their empire back, and are making clear that this whole invasion of Ukraine was just going to be a first step?

I thought we weren't supposed to believe Russian propaganda?

 

[Bacle]

... Wow, who's believing Russian posturing now? I don't believe Russia on a lot of things they say, this is yet another thing I don't believe they believe. After Ukraine, if they got all of it, they'd go after Moldova. If they don't get all of Ukraine, they'll go after Ukraine again if Ukraine isn't in NATO.

They are never going to go after Poland or the Baltics cause NATO and Russia's poor showing in Ukraine.

Again, the US should go for simple contain strategy on Russia: give them Crimea, maybe the Donbass etc regions, and Ukraine goes into NATO. Or let Russia completely conquer Ukraine if Ukraine doesn't go back to an actual democracy and deal with its corruption. Ukraine isn't US business, and I don't care about defending awfully led governments.

Honestly, invite both Russia and Ukraine in as a partial NATO member for all I care, with an understanding that Article Five applies between those two countries attacking each other, as long as Russia stops supporting the Norks, or at least deports North Korean refugees to South Korea..

Talk is cheap. Doesn’t mean they actually have the means to carry it out. They can want to do whatever but if they don’t have the resources, manpower, political will or some mix of them, they can’t.

Assuming that it’s all not just propaganda to keep the Russian people going and make them think they have a chance of doing that.

I thought we weren't supposed to believe Russian propaganda?

It's not propaganda when a lot of Russians do miss their empire and want it back.

Most Russian's biggest complaint about the invasion is not that it happened, but that their leadership was incompetent in their planning/execution.

Russian's don't have much problem dying for their Tsar, but they want to be properly trained and equipped for it, which is where the logistics issues and corruption come into play.



Edit: How about a video from someone inside Russia who is willing to explain the situation, and doesn't approve of what was done, and explain in detail the domestic situation in Russia.

 

[Abhorsen]

It's not propaganda when a lot of Russians do miss their empire and want it back.

Most Russian's biggest complaint about the invasion is not that it happened, but that their leadership was incompetent in their planning/execution.

Russian's don't have much problem dying for their Tsar, but they want to be properly trained and equipped for it, which is where the logistics issues and corruption come into play.

Many want this in the abstract. Many also understand that doing so is stupid. Look, I'm not worried about Russia attacking the Baltics because they aren't enough of a threat. They'd be repulsed in a stalemate.

 

[Bacle]

Many want this in the abstract. Many also understand that doing so is stupid. Look, I'm not worried about Russia attacking the Baltics because they aren't enough of a threat. They'd be repulsed in a stalemate.

It's not an abstract to the Russians, it's the end goal and they are undertaking generational level indoc of Russian society towards this end.

Oh, and for anyone who thinks a West/East or North/South Ukraine deal would ever work.



As far as the Russian collaborators are concerned, at the end of this war either Ukraine will not exist, or Russia will not exist, there is no middle ground.

So the idea any deal that forces Ukraine to give up land will ever hold, even if Ukraine is offered NATO membership in exchange, is not accepted by the people on the ground on either side.

 

[Captain X]

Again, the US should go for simple contain strategy on Russia: give them Crimea, maybe the Donbass etc regions

First off, those are not ours to give. Secondly, expansionist aggression like this should not be encouraged by rewarding it in this way.

 

[Zachowon]

... Wow, who's believing Russian posturing now? I don't believe Russia on a lot of things they say, this is yet another thing I don't believe they believe. After Ukraine, if they got all of it, they'd go after Moldova. If they don't get all of Ukraine, they'll go after Ukraine again if Ukraine isn't in NATO.

They are never going to go after Poland or the Baltics cause NATO and Russia's poor showing in Ukraine.

Again, the US should go for simple contain strategy on Russia: give them Crimea, maybe the Donbass etc regions, and Ukraine goes into NATO. Or let Russia completely conquer Ukraine if Ukraine doesn't go back to an actual democracy and deal with its corruption. Ukraine isn't US business, and I don't care about defending awfully led governments.

Honestly, invite both Russia and Ukraine in as a partial NATO member for all I care, with an understanding that Article Five applies between those two countries attacking each other, as long as Russia stops supporting the Norks, or at least deports North Korean refugees to South Korea..

So reward Russia is what your saying

 

[Rocinante]

So reward Russia is what your saying

End the war because Russia is outright not leaving with nothing and we can't just fund it forever, is what we're saying.

And I'm not concerned about them trying again. They just got shown that the US will fund Ukraine for almost 2 years and turn what was supposed to be a quick invasion into a bloody massacre.

They need a way out thay saves face, or this war just goes on until nukes fly.

It will eventually end in them getting some land, or nukes flying. That's the only way this ends. Russia is not going to give up.

So I say we stop wasting resources and get to the bargaining table.

 

[Bacle]

End the war because Russia is outright not leaving with nothing and we can't just fund it forever, is what we're saying.

And I'm not concerned about them trying again. They just got shown that the US will fund Ukraine for almost 2 years and turn what was supposed to be a quick invasion into a bloody massacre.

They need a way out thay saves face, or this war just goes on until nukes fly.

It will eventually end in them getting some land, or nukes flying. That's the only way this ends. Russia is not going to give up.

So I say we stop wasting resources and get to the bargaining table.

No, this war can/will end with Russia getting nothing, and Putin either dead or arrested by the ICC, and his replacement calling the withdrawal.

And the nuclear command chain under Putin is not going to launch anything, because it needs both Shoigu and Gerasimov's codes to make a launch happen, and neither of them want to do that.

Also, the CCP doesn't want Russia using nukes, because then Taiwan, Japan, and every other neighbor of their's will race for the bomb and make CCP ambitions in the South China Sea even harder to accomplish.

 

[Rocinante]

No, this war can/will end with Russia getting nothing, and Putin either dead or arrested by the ICC, and his replacement calling the withdrawal.

And the nuclear command chain under Putin is not going to launch anything, because it needs both Shoigu and Gerasimov's codes to make a launch happen, and neither of them want to do that.

Also, the CCP doesn't want Russia using nukes, because then Taiwan, Japan, and every other neighbor of their's will race for the bomb and make CCP ambitions in the South China Sea even harder to accomplish.

The russian people are not turning on putin.

Putin will not be killed or arrested.

This will end with nukes or Russia getting something in peace talks.

Russia is more powerful than Ukraine and will eventually win and get what they want.

 

[StormEagle]

Ukrainian supporters seem to exist in this weird middle ground.

Where Russia is simultaneously a bumbling buffoon of a nation that the Brave Ukrainian Nation will crush any day now, yet also this titanic monstrosity of evil that is going to roll over eastern Europe with its all conquering, slavering, Slavic hordes.

It’s one or the other gents. Please pick one.

If I’m to take it seriously as a threat, and thus support more funding to the Ukrainians, you can’t keep telling me that it’s a rotting edifice that one good kick would send tumbling down.

And if it is that incompetent, then it is not a threat to the Eastern European NATO members. If it can’t even roll over Ukraine, a nation so hilariously corrupt that it gives Russia a run for its money, what chance does it realistically have against Poland or Finland?

I do not doubt the Russians desire to do so. But I highly doubt their ability to.

 

[Rocinante]

Ukrainian supporters seem to exist in this weird middle ground.

Where Russia is simultaneously a bumbling buffoon of a nation that the Brave Ukrainian Nation will crush any day now, yet also this titanic monstrosity of evil that is going to roll over eastern Europe with its all conquering, slavering, Slavic hordes.

It’s one or the other gents. Please pick one.

If I’m to take it seriously as a threat, and thus support more funding to the Ukrainians, you can’t keep telling me that it’s a rotting edifice that one good kick would send tumbling down.

And if it is that incompetent, then it is not a threat to the Eastern European NATO members. If it can’t even roll over Ukraine, a nation so hilariously corrupt that it gives Russia a run for its money, what chance does it realistically have against Poland or Finland?

I do not doubt the Russians desire to do so. But I highly doubt their ability to.

Nato is far, far more powerful than Russia. They're having this much trouble with Ukraine? Get them to the bargaining table and they aren't going to try to go for a nato country.

 

[Bacle]

The russian people are not turning on putin.

Putin will not be killed or arrested.

This will end with nukes or Russia getting something in peace talks.

Russia is more powerful than Ukraine and will eventually win and get what they want.

I see you are ignoring the actual articles about the Russia nuclear command chain, and ignoring that no one in Ukraine thinks Putin is trustworthy to negotiate with.

It's not the the Russia people will turn on Putin per se, so much as one of the other oligarchs/security service heads will decide that Putin is not worth protecting anymore, because they want to be able to visit places outside Iran and North Korea at some point in the future for a vacation.

And Russia has more bodies than Ukraine, but shittier logistics, and a mobik in trench with no gun or ammo is of limit threat to Ukraine, even if he's surrounded by a minefield. UA guns are outranging Russian guns, and the Russian counterbattery systems are getting wiped out routinely, where as the UA counterbattery is surviving.

As soon as the UA forces get within medium arty/Himars range of the Azov coast, they will be able to cut the land bridge and hold the Russian forces in Crimea hostage as the Ukrainians continue attacks on the Kerch Bridge as well.

Ukrainian supporters seem to exist in this weird middle ground.

Where Russia is simultaneously a bumbling buffoon of a nation that the Brave Ukrainian Nation will crush any day now, yet also this titanic monstrosity of evil that is going to roll over eastern Europe with its all conquering, slavering, Slavic hordes.

It’s one or the other gents. Please pick one.

If I’m to take it seriously as a threat, and thus support more funding to the Ukrainians, you can’t keep telling me that it’s a rotting edifice that one good kick would send tumbling down.

And if it is that incompetent, then it is not a threat to the Eastern European NATO members. If it can’t even roll over Ukraine, a nation so hilariously corrupt that it gives Russia a run for its money, what chance does it realistically have against Poland or Finland?

I do not doubt the Russians desire to do so. But I highly doubt their ability to.

A retard with a gun is still dangerous, even if they are incompetent compared to western powers, and that is what Russia is right now; a retard with a gun who is raping their neighbor in hopes of bringing them back into the Moscow-centered fold.

 

[Rocinante]

I see you are ignoring the actual articles about the Russia nuclear command chain, and ignoring that no one in Ukraine thinks Putin is trustworthy to negotiate with.

It's not the the Russia people will turn on Putin per se, so much as one of the other oligarchs/security service heads will decide that Putin is not worth protecting anymore, because they want to be able to visit places outside Iran and North Korea at some point in the future for a vacation.

And Russia has more bodies than Ukraine, but shittier logistics, and a mobik in trench with no gun or ammo is of limit threat to Ukraine, even if he's surrounded by a minefield. UA guns are outranging Russian guns, and the Russian counterbattery systems are getting wiped out routinely, where as the UA counterbattery is surviving.

As soon as the UA forces get within medium arty/Himars range of the Azov coast, they will be able to cut the land bridge and hold the Russian forces in Crimea hostage as the Ukrainians continue attacks on the Kerch Bridge as well.

A retard with a gun is still dangerous, even if they are incompetent compared to western powers, and that is what Russia is right now; a retard with a gun who is raping their neighbor in hopes of bringing them back into the Moscow-centered fold.

This is a matter of pride to both Putin and the russian people.

No one is turning on him.

 

[Abhorsen]

First off, those are not ours to give. Secondly, expansionist aggression like this should not be encouraged by rewarding it in this way.

Should it be? No. But looking at this dispassionately, Ukraine isn't going to kick them out, Russia isn't going to leave, there will be no uprising against Putin. We give some face to Putin, and Ukraine joins NATO, and that's the end of Putin's expansion into Europe.

And yeah, it's effectively ours to give. Should it be? No. But is it? Yes. We can just tell Ukraine we'll stop funding the war if they don't make the offer.

So reward Russia is what your saying

I'm saying have a realistic look at what's going to happen in the world. This isn't even a reward, if Ukraine joins NATO, Russia is in a far worse position than prior to the Ukraine invasion.