Russia(gate/bot) Russia-Ukraine War Political Discussion

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Bacle

When the effort is no longer profitable...
Founder
Funny thing about a russian civil war, China has historical claims on russian far east territory, and that territory is rich in resources. Japan has historical claims on that big island in the Pacific and it has a buch of resources on it Japn desperately needs. So if Russia goes into civil war there are a bunch of deals that can be made that will be to their perminant detrement.
Yep; Russia going into a civil war is the best time for the people Russia has stolen land from to retake their territories.

I also expect Russian nuke officers will likely become effective kingmakers/warlords once the fighting sets in.
 

ShadowArxxy

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Comrade
While true, there is a big difference between Putin's position and Zelensky's; one is demanding another nation's territory be ceded and effectively made a vassal to Moscow again, the other is effectively fighting his nation's war of independence with most of the world backing him.

Putin also has to fear internal assassination plots a hell of a lot more than Zelensky does.

I didn't say their positions were morally equal, simply that there's no point in holding diplomatic negotiations when compromise isn't actually on the table. The Russians aren't willing to pull back their invasion "empty handed" and the Ukranians will not surrender any portion of their homeland to the invaders.
 

Cherico

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Yep; Russia going into a civil war is the best time for the people Russia has stolen land from to retake their territories.

I also expect Russian nuke officers will likely become effective kingmakers/warlords once the fighting sets in.

its an honest question weather those still work.
 

Bacle

When the effort is no longer profitable...
Founder
I didn't say their positions were morally equal, simply that there's no point in holding diplomatic negotiations when compromise isn't actually on the table. The Russians aren't willing to pull back their invasion "empty handed" and the Ukranians will not surrender any portion of their homeland to the invaders.
All true.

Though I would point out the internal pressures on them for those positions are coming from different directions; Zelensky isn't keeping everyone at 30 foot distances or using body doubles for anything with risk involved, because unlike Putin Zelensky isn't afraid of his own people wanting him dead.
 

Marduk

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Frankly I expect either Shoigu, Gerasimov, or possibly even Girkin to be the next in line after Putin bites it, though whether any of them take power afterwards and don't end up in a ditch in the new Russian Civil War is an open question.
Nope, those 3 are people specifically meant to not have a snowball's chance in hell of pulling it off.
 

Bacle

When the effort is no longer profitable...
Founder
Nope, those 3 are people specifically meant to not have a snowball's chance in hell of pulling it off.
Even Shoigu? He's still pretty popular outside Wagner circles, and is a long established face in the Kremlin.

I guess I want to ask who you think will be in charge when Putin's gone?
 

Marduk

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Even Shoigu? He's still pretty popular outside Wagner circles, and is a long established face in the Kremlin.

I guess I want to ask who you think will be in charge when Putin's gone?
Look at him. Look at the country. Look at the country's politics. Why would Russian glowocracy put an obvious member of minority (a famously corrupt and incompetent one at that) in one of the most coup-risky positions in the country?
This is one of the most likely candidates.
This is the other one:
 

ATP

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I arleady wrote it elsywhere - but,there is logical reason for Progozin antics.
His Wagner group just kicked french from Burkina Faso - country with gold and dictator.
And,what dictator need? foreign guard to prevent next coup.
Prigozin and his boys just found alternative to dying for notching - live happy life in Africa,killing from time to time farmers,and preventing next putch.
 

Marduk

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As long as he's getting blank checks from DC and the military/public is willing to fight he doesn't have to signal anything other than pre 2014 border restoration.
Considering the last 8 years, he and DC would be foolish to go for anything else. Everyone and their dog knows that any "grand compromise for peace of our time negotiated with great effort" will be seen in Moscow merely as a pause to use for preparing before round 2, as it's immensely unlikely that Russia will suddenly do a 180 on its strategic and national-ideological visions and the place of Ukraine in them in long term.
What's the point of providing it?
Because Russia is uninterested in negotiation anything other than this or Ukraine's surrender at this moment.
 

Carrot of Truth

War is Peace
As long as he's getting blank checks from DC and the military/public is willing to fight he doesn't have to signal anything other than pre 2014 border restoration.

The US is pretty infamous for throwing countries under the bus once it's no longer politically viable. Zelensky should be aware of that fact and plan accordingly.
 

Marduk

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The US is pretty infamous for throwing countries under the bus once it's no longer politically viable. Zelensky should be aware of that fact and plan accordingly.
Consider the few previous "proxies".
A proxy that actually fights, fights the side they are supposed to fight, and competently at that?
They would not throw that away easily, who knows when they are going to get a proxy like that again, it could take half a century!
 

Marduk

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The Las proxy war the US engaged in was Afghanistan and look how that turned out.
And look how much of an epic, all around failure the local proxies were. If the population of Kabul alone had the morale of Ukraine, Taliban could never take the city.

The obvious lesson here is, if you are going to get into a proxy war, get a proxy who's worth a damn.
 

Bacle

When the effort is no longer profitable...
Founder
The Las proxy war the US engaged in was Afghanistan and look how that turned out.
You make a valid point generally speaking but in regards to Afghanistan, is it going to be found out soon or like in twenty years with Afghanistan?
Eh, we forced the Taliban into cubicles and turned them into office drones.

We may have left in an inglorious fashion, but you have to admit seeing the Taliban complaining about being forced to actually govern is kinda hilarious.
 
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