Russia-Ukraine War Political Discussion

[Marduk]

Just imagine some of those weapons the USA is pouring into Ukraine and which the Russians are capturing en mass.

Now, imagine the middle eastern and African unrest the West-generated inflation, sanctions and food shortages will be causing the middle east.

Now, imagine a few Houthi or Egyptian rebels using some of that tech to attack ships going through the already heavily loaded Suez canal, with volumes, especially of LNG and oil tankers probably going up because of increased European demand.

Don't know about you, but having an imagination can be really, really painful sometimes.

Low effort shitpost for obvious goals.
Where Middle East, where Ukraine?
Donbabwe and Luganda are more likely to cause this kind of problems IMHO, with their own weapons if (financial desperation) need be, regardless of their manufacturer.

 

[Agent23]

Low effort shitpost for obvious goals.
Where Middle East, where Ukraine?
Donbabwe and Luganda are more likely to cause this kind of problems IMHO, with their own weapons if (financial desperation) need be, regardless of their manufacturer.

Stop looking at yourself in the mirror and thinking of what you'd say to yourself before shitposting at me, it is obvious you are talking to yourself.
@Arch Dornan and I were merely speculating about the long-term impacts of this conflict.
Hell, we Bulgars have armed everyone in recent conflicts, ranging from the Houthis to the FSA, and we are allegedly members of NATO.
We literally sell weapons to both India and Pakistan, and whatever is left of Ukraine and the Donbass will probably have far less qualms and far more deniability, especially if the weapons are made in the West.

 

[Agent23]

Yeah, I doubt it. The story doesn't read at all like a hack. That's the bullshit explanation to cover a screw up. Like that's also the excuse used when someone posts nudes on twitter: "it wuz a hack!! FOre Realz!"

It might have been a Ukrainian attempt at disinformation.

We will see once the war is over and Russia takes Ukraine.

 

[Abhorsen]

It might have been a Ukrainian attempt at disinformation.

We will see once the war is over and Russia takes Ukraine.

Look, this is just wishful thinking on your part. You have zero evidence for this, and the article doesn't line up with Ukrainian propaganda at all. Seriously, the number of deaths makes sense with everything we know.

If Russia had a competent military not hamstrung by political concerns, this would be a different story. But they don't.

This twitter thread has a decent summary of why the military isn't working right (though the conclusion that Ukraine will win is very overblown):

Thread by @kamilkazani on Thread Reader App

@kamilkazani: Why Russia will lose this war? Much of the "realist" discourse is about accepting Putin's victory, cuz it's *guaranteed*. But how do we know it is? I'll argue that analysts 1) overrate Russian army 2)...…

threadreaderapp.com

 

[The Immortal Watch Dog]

Official Azov Twitter account says Russians are da real fashists, repeats the lie of "Chemical attacks in Syria".





"But muh based Azov holding off the Asiatic moskal hordes..."

Same energies

 

[Cherico]

Im just going to repeat what I said earlier.

We are dealing with a fog of war situation and we can not belive either the Ukranian or Russian numbers, I think in 10 years we will have a grasp of what happened during this war maybe and in 50 we will have a clear understanding that is unbiased but as of now I don't think thats possible.

 

[The Immortal Watch Dog]

Large numbers of casualties on both sides wouldn't surprise me. Mostly because of the way war is fought over there and because there's a big difference between invading a shithole in the middle east and invading a shithole like Kiev.

So if say, both sides are in excess of 50,000 casualties by the middle of April I wouldn't be surprised.

Good luck ever ascerting the truth of it all though.

 

[Agent23]

Look, this is just wishful thinking on your part. You have zero evidence for this, and the article doesn't line up with Ukrainian propaganda at all. Seriously, the number of deaths makes sense with everything we know.

If Russia had a competent military not hamstrung by political concerns, this would be a different story. But they don't.

This twitter thread has a decent summary of why the military isn't working right (though the conclusion that Ukraine will win is very overblown):

Thread by @kamilkazani on Thread Reader App

@kamilkazani: Why Russia will lose this war? Much of the "realist" discourse is about accepting Putin's victory, cuz it's *guaranteed*. But how do we know it is? I'll argue that analysts 1) overrate Russian army 2)...…

threadreaderapp.com

Well, they have provided some numbers:

Moscow offers update on casualties from Ukraine conflict

Doubt them if you wish, I will be taking them with a grain of salt, too, but until the conflict is over this is the best we get.

 

[Abhorsen]

Well, they have provided some numbers:

Moscow offers update on casualties from Ukraine conflict

Doubt them if you wish, I will be taking them with a grain of salt, too, but until the conflict is over this is the best we get.

That's nowhere near the best we will get. In general, the best info you get is when one side says something against its best interest. When pro-Ukraine people post Russian successes, or a Russian newspaper posts an unfortunate (for Russia) death total, that's what you can bank on. The 9k death figure, meanwhile, actually makes sense.

Honestly, their numbers just aren't believable. Ukraine shouldn't have a near 1:1 kill:wounded ratio, and it's very unlikely that an invading force has a 1:14 k:d ratio, especially with how Russia is fighting. Seriously, these aren't crack troops, these are conscripts.

Look, you seem to be doing the same thing you accuse others of doing: taking propaganda at face value. You're just reading another sides propaganda.

 

[Agent23]

That's nowhere near the best we will get. In general, the best info you get is when one side says something against its best interest. When pro-Ukraine people post Russian successes, or a Russian newspaper posts an unfortunate (for Russia) death total, that's what you can bank on. The 9k death figure, meanwhile, actually makes sense.

Honestly, their numbers just aren't believable. Ukraine shouldn't have a near 1:1 kill:wounded ratio, and it's very unlikely that an invading force has a 1:14 k:d ratio, especially with how Russia is fighting. Seriously, these aren't crack troops, these are conscripts.

Look, you seem to be doing the same thing you accuse others of doing: taking propaganda at face value. You're just reading another sides propaganda.

Ukraine has been leading the propaganda/information war, frankly I don't think that they would pass any opportunity like that offered.
In any case, the figures cited by the paper in question were allegedly from the Russian MoD, these are also figures cited from the MoD, and they are persistent.
Now, it is possible that they are lying by omission by keeping the Donbass and Chechen forces out of their counts, since the Donbass forces have been doing a very large portion of the fighting.
However, don't forget that Russia used Kinjal, Kalibr and numerous other missile systems during the course of the conflict and that their airforce is doing an impressive number of daily sorties.

Also, it is very likely that they managed to catch the forces preparing to exterminate the DNR and LNR by surprise.

I want to know what transpired in the east, what gear was used, what the troop strengths were, etc, etc.

 

[Val the Moofia Boss]

Dunno what to believe, but if Russia is lowballing their numbers then perhaps they're trying to prevent morale among their troops from plummeting. If a a lot of the soldiers being sent to the frontline are conscripts, then it would be rather demoralizing to hear that thousands of them have died over the past two weeks, and they still have like 80% of the country left to slog through. Apparently their cellphones were taken away right before the invasion began but I'd imagine that the officers would have phones and could see the news, or soldiers could enter into a house or an office building, sit down at a computer and read the news.

 

[sillygoose]

Funny how they hardly changed, just 59, over almost 3 weeks of fighting.

Russia Releases the First Official Casualty Count From Its Ukraine Adventure

redstate.com

Let's be honest, Russia is so late and so unwilling to share own losses purely for reason of the potential domestic political impact of the conflict.
Of course a country that imprisons people merely for calling the war a war is unwilling to admit to war level losses. Losing thousands of soldiers in a special operation sounds quite strange after all. So they near-freeze the counter. After all, if anyone in Russia questions it, to prison they go. And others don't matter to them anyway.

Anyone with half a brain considers those an absolute minimum, not the accurate number. Probably same with official US loss data in the War on Terror.

 

[sillygoose]

Honestly, their numbers just aren't believable. Ukraine shouldn't have a near 1:1 kill:wounded ratio, and it's very unlikely that an invading force has a 1:14 k:d ratio, especially with how Russia is fighting. Seriously, these aren't crack troops, these are conscripts.

Given Russian air superiority and the drop they got on Ukrainian forces by the surprise invasion before they mobilized it is entirely possible for them to have achieved a major series of victories during their rapid conquest of 20% of the country in the initial push before logistics and Ukrainian resistance stalled them. It does appear that the command and control as well as supply depot and training establishment in Ukraine has been badly degraded by the Russian strikes early on. Now 1:14 number is probably very wrong, but a 1:5 is believable given the initial surprise factor and rapid advance by the Russians. Things have probably evened out in the last couple of weeks due to the advance stalling and mobilization plus international support having a major impact.

 

[Abhorsen]

In any case, the figures cited by the paper in question were allegedly from the Russian MoD, these are also figures cited from the MoD, and they are persistent.

So? You didn't argue my point: if there are two conflicting pieces of info from the same side, the one more likely to be true is the one that makes them look worse. Persistence doesn't matter at all when it comes to truth. In fact, truer info is likely to be less persistent as it is embarrassing.

Ukraine has been leading the propaganda/information war, frankly I don't think that they would pass any opportunity like that offered.

This has nothing to do with passing up an opportunity: it's how to compare multiple pieces of info from the same side. If an embarrassing leak comes from Ukraine, believe that instead of whatever UMoD said officially. Same with Russia.

It's just that Ukraine has been much better at the info war (with a fair amount of help from the west, still, but they did well on their own also).

However, don't forget that Russia used Kinjal, Kalibr and numerous other missile systems during the course of the conflict and that their airforce is doing an impressive number of daily sorties.

Also, it is very likely that they managed to catch the forces preparing to exterminate the DNR and LNR by surprise.

I want to know what transpired in the east, what gear was used, what the troop strengths were, etc, etc.

Both sides are using missile systems and making sorties. That Russia hasn't knocked out Ukraine's ability to do do airstrikes is another reason they aren't doing well.

As for 'forces preparing to exterminate the DNR/LNR', those don't really exist. Ukraine didn't mobilize until after the invasion started, which was arguably one of Zelinski's screw ups (certainly a military blunder, but whether the political gamble was worth the attempt is up in the air).

 

[Agent23]

So? You didn't argue my point: if there are two conflicting pieces of info from the same side, the one more likely to be true is the one that makes them look worse. Persistence doesn't matter at all when it comes to truth. In fact, truer info is likely to be less persistent as it is embarrassing.

Interesting theory, but I doubt it.
believe in the 9k casualties if you want, I will believe the 1350, until the conflict ends and we have 3rd party sources.

 

[Abhorsen]

Given Russian air superiority and the drop they got on Ukrainian forces by the surprise invasion before they mobilized it is entirely possible for them to have achieved a major series of victories during their rapid conquest of 20% of the country in the initial push before logistics and Ukrainian resistance stalled them. It does appear that the command and control as well as supply depot and training establishment in Ukraine has been badly degraded by the Russian strikes early on. Now 1:14 number is probably very wrong, but a 1:5 is believable given the initial surprise factor and rapid advance by the Russians. Things have probably evened out in the last couple of weeks due to the advance stalling and mobilization plus international support having a major impact.

We know that about a 9k number is the minimum for Russian deaths a week ago because of an unfortunate leak on Russia's part. So honestly, given that's true, plus Urkaine's loss numbers according to Russia (of 14k) that puts Russia's best possible k:d at 1:1.5. I expect the true value to be about even or a slight Ukraine advantage, which is losing for Ukraine, but a long, slow loss that Russia might not be able to afford to cause.

Interesting theory, but I doubt it.
believe in the 9k casualties if you want, I will believe the 1350, until the conflict ends and we have 3rd party sources.

See, the issue here is that you are believing Russian sources cause... why? You seem to have put no thought into this other than "Russia good".

 

[LordsFire]

However, don't forget that Russia used Kinjal, Kalibr and numerous other missile systems during the course of the conflict and that their airforce is doing an impressive number of daily sorties.

An impressive number of daily sorties? Where do you get that idea?

Last I checked, the Russian air force has barely made an appearance compared to what would be expected of something that is so large on paper.

 

[Agent23]

See, the issue here is that you are believing Russian sources cause... why? You seem to have put no thought into this other than "Russia good".

I do not hide my sympathies, I have stated the same a few times when talking to @Marduk you have a fun theory brought upon by your libertarian bias IMHO, but not much to corroborate it.

 

[sillygoose]

We know that about a 9k number is the minimum for Russian deaths a week ago because of an unfortunate leak on Russia's part.

Still pushing that retarded meme? It was a hack, Anonymous has been doing it all over the place. If it were true why would a regional pro-Kremlin tabloid break the news? There has been zero evidence to show it is accurate or a leak. Just a bunch of wishful thinking on the part of anti-Russian commenters.

So honestly, given that's true,

Holy Gish Gallop Batman! There is zero evidence it is true, just your desperate wishful thinking.

plus Urkaine's loss numbers according to Russia (of 14k) that puts Russia's best possible k:d at 1:1.5.

I don't trust Russia's claims about Ukraine's losses either.

I expect the true value to be about even or a slight Ukraine advantage, which is losing for Ukraine, but a long, slow loss that Russia might not be able to afford to cause.

Oh you expect? So your reasoning is all from your wishful thinking. Got it.

 

[Abhorsen]

I do not hide my sympathies, I have stated the same a few times when talking to @Marduk you have a fun theory brought upon by your libertarian bias IMHO, but not much to corroborate it.

Um, I have repeatedly posted an archived Russian news source confirming this. And given arguments as to why it is more reliable than your info. The issue I have with you isn't your bias, but you putting no thought into your beliefs, just chugging down whatever you are fed. Seriously, why do you believe this number? What evidence do you have for it other than "The Russian Government said so?" I'd have the same contempt if you just believed everything Ukraine said as well.