Is Le Pen the best choice for France?

[Yinko]

How does it work exactly in France? Would a coalition be possible or a thing?

From what I've seen during the previous elections, Zemmour and Le Pen will compete for the conservative vote during the innitial election, and then the winner will compete against the Macron. Macron, at the moment, couldn't compete against the combined vote of the two conservative camps, but once you throw in all the minor factions who are unable to win, he'll probably be ahead, at least by the current tabulations. The election is in over a year from now, April 2022.

 

[Sobek]

So they do turns looking for a majority is that it? I see. In that case sounds like it might be a sure win for conservatives anyway. Macron cannot compete with the combined vote of Le Pen and Zanmour, so the 2nd turn will see the leftover voters choose who they hate less, and given Macron abismal popularity its a good shot.

 

[Zachowon]

Given how weak England and Germany have become, a resurgent France expanding the historical Francophonie and showing nations that were historically English-aligned and German-aligned that they are far better off in the French sphere of influence is quite a good thing.

Here in the United States, we really need to give up the idea of a "special relationship" with the UK and accept the reality that France is probably the only nation in Europe that's still worth anything whatsoever as a military and diplomatic ally.

We have a close friendship militarily woth both.
Not as close as UK but they speak English which makes life easier for us

 

[gral]

So they do turns looking for a majority is that it? I see. In that case sounds like it might be a sure win for conservatives anyway. Macron cannot compete with the combined vote of Le Pen and Zanmour, so the 2nd turn will see the leftover voters choose who they hate less, and given Macron abismal popularity its a good shot.

Not so sure of that. There's two possible ways where it could go wrong, from what I remember of the previous elections:

1) Zanmour and Le Pen take enough of each other's votes that none of them goes for the second round; remember that when Macron was elected, the Communist candidate almost got in for the second round instead of Le Pen;

2) One of them gets in and it's everyone against either Le Pen or Zanmour. This was exactly how Macron was elected in 2017, and what I think it will happen here, even with Macron's popularity being in the shitter.

 

[Zachowon]

Not so sure of that. There's two possible ways where it could go wrong, from what I remember of the previous elections:

1) Zanmour and Le Pen take enough of each other's votes that none of them goes for the second round; remember that when Macron was elected, the Communist candidate almost got in for the second round instead of Le Pen;

2) One of them gets in and it's everyone against either Le Pen or Zanmour. This was exactly how Macron was elected in 2017, and what I think it will happen here, even with Macron's popularity being in the shitter.

I doubt it will happen that way this time

 

[Yinko]

I doubt it will happen that way this time

Especially with the rapid change in French political leanings over the past few years. Last time the mind set was "we have to block the racist right", but Macron today is close to where Le Pen was four years ago. As such, it'll be difficult to muster up a similar wall to block the conservatives.

 

[Buba]

One of them gets in and it's everyone against either Le Pen or Zanmour. This was exactly how Macron was elected in 2017, and what I think it will happen here, even with Macron's popularity being in the shitter.

Indeed this is how things have been in France since the National Front appeared.

I doubt it will happen that way this time

It probably will. In spite of the NF not being that different from other centre-right parties, it simply is not cool.
Hence the centre right combines forces with the left and swamps NF candidates in the play offs.

As to there being "no France left" due to inflow of Islamic immigrants - AFAIK France does not cuddle them and bend over to their sensibilities as much as the UK, for example. I believe that immigrants are forced to "frenchify" to a greater extent than in most of Western Europe.

‘Not French enough’: What it means to be an immigrant in France

Immigrants bear the burden of having to prove, again and again, that they are worthy of their spot.

www.aljazeera.com

In the text:
“[...] But will we get jobs with our Muslim names on our CVs?” asked a young man.
Well, young man, that's your fucking problem, not of the Authorities and Old French.
You could ... change it?

 

[Bacle]

Time like this I wish we had Rufus here; be very interesting to see how he's reacting to these sorts of developments.

 

[ShieldWife]

As to there being "no France left" due to inflow of Islamic immigrants - AFAIK France does not cuddle them and bend over to their sensibilities as much as the UK, for example. I believe that immigrants are forced to "frenchify" to a greater extent than in most of Western Europe.

Some European nations lick the boots of Muslim immigrants. France merely kisses their boots, at least for now. They aren’t going to assimilate though, and the more that come the less they will even have to make a presence of assimilating until it’s the French who are forced to assimilate for the immigrants. This is an existential crisis for Europe that will end France and other European nations if it isn’t not only stopped but reversed soon.

 

[Lord Sovereign]

One thing I've noticed is that while the populists don't get power, they seem highly effective at nudging the overton window to the Right. In time, the establishment right may well become genuinely right wing, if not traditionalist.

But as for the populists themselves, as outsiders, they don't seem to be the best at playing the game of politics, which is often why many great reformers don't get anywhere.

 

[Zachowon]

Indeed this is how things have been in France since the National Front appeared.

It probably will. In spite of the NF not being that different from other centre-right parties, it simply is not cool.
Hence the centre right combines forces with the left and swamps NF candidates in the play offs.

As to there being "no France left" due to inflow of Islamic immigrants - AFAIK France does not cuddle them and bend over to their sensibilities as much as the UK, for example. I believe that immigrants are forced to "frenchify" to a greater extent than in most of Western Europe.

‘Not French enough’: What it means to be an immigrant in France

Immigrants bear the burden of having to prove, again and again, that they are worthy of their spot.

www.aljazeera.com

In the text:
“[...] But will we get jobs with our Muslim names on our CVs?” asked a young man.
Well, young man, that's your fucking problem, not of the Authorities and Old French.
You could ... change it?

We will have to see

Some European nations lick the boots of Muslim immigrants. France merely kisses their boots, at least for now. They aren’t going to assimilate though, and the more that come the less they will even have to make a presence of assimilating until it’s the French who are forced to assimilate for the immigrants. This is an existential crisis for Europe that will end France and other European nations if it isn’t not only stopped but reversed soon.

France has a population who doesn't like them and a military who threatened a coup

 

[Cherico]

One thing I've noticed is that while the populists don't get power, they seem highly effective at nudging the overton window to the Right. In time, the establishment right may well become genuinely right wing, if not traditionalist.

But as for the populists themselves, as outsiders, they don't seem to be the best at playing the game of politics, which is often why many great reformers don't get anywhere.

Sov we are at the very begining of the populist revolts that define the end of a modern period. This is a movement that has littterally just been born in the last 5 or so years. To compare us to the last modern period the west experienced we litterally just had our first Grachi brother.

This is a movement that is going to take roughly 20-30 years to really find its footing and its power everything we are talking about is litterally just the infant stages of a civilizational wide movement the fact that so much has changed so fast is actually pretty impressive considering the vast array of power assembled against this nasiant movement.

 

[Bacle]

We will have to see

France has a population who doesn't like them and a military who threatened a coup

French people know how to successfully throw corrupt elite out of power; they're got more practice at it than most western countries.

 

[Buba]

French people know how to successfully throw corrupt elite out of power; they're got more practice at it than most western countries.

As if praise could not be more damning ...

 

[History Learner]

From what I've seen during the previous elections, Zemmour and Le Pen will compete for the conservative vote during the innitial election, and then the winner will compete against the Macron. Macron, at the moment, couldn't compete against the combined vote of the two conservative camps, but once you throw in all the minor factions who are unable to win, he'll probably be ahead, at least by the current tabulations. The election is in over a year from now, April 2022.

Zemmour is an obvious op, and you need look no further than this:

Jonathan Nadler, a Paris-based banker at JPMorgan Chase & Co., has taken a sabbatical from the U.S. firm to help French far right presidential candidate Eric Zemmour in his campaign.​

 

[JagerIV]

Eric Zemmour might be better than Le Pen. Hard to say, but his campeign ad is pretty killer. He's also got 14% of the vote at the moment, compared to Le Pen's 19%. On the other hand, he's an indepentant political outsider who spent his entire adult life as a journalist critisizing the political system. So he'd probably have an even harder time getting things done than a mere ideological heathen like Le Pen.

Spoiler: Ad

Amusingly, when he announced his run for election, it came out that he (68) had just knocked up his cheif aid (28). When asked about this he replied "french voters do not care about this sort of thing". Some papers are claiming that this is a ploy to demonstrate his virility, which seems awfully plausible since when I hear that a man that old has pulled and impregnated a young twenty-something the only thing I can think is "hats off to him".

I think, no matter who wins this election, France is on a better track. Macron has been sliding further and further right ever since Nice. He's officially changed the French flag to it's pre-EU colors and his ministers have made bold statements about blocking all new immigration while evicting as many problematic cases as possible. So the current playing field is Macron (our center right), Le Pen (our died in the wool right), Zemmour (our far right). The amusing thing is, those are the only real options at this point, there is no one to the Left of Macron, and the next runner up is insignificant in terms of votes.

Eh, I remain deeply cynical of Macron actually being right in any way: he wants to be tough, but that's not the same thing. He's made noise, but I'm not sure he's really done anything substantial. If he was serious about the immigration thing, he could be doing it now from my understanding. Plus its my understanding he came out of the socialist party, and the neocons I think show such people who "convert" right should be treated with a great deal of supicion.

The best thing for France is anything the French people deem acceptable. I don't presume to know what France wants or needs for their future, nor will I lower myself by trying to ram my own ideology down their throats when they have an entirely different perception on what defines 'order' and 'liberty' to match their needs, even when they insist to do the contrary to me and refuse to mind their business.

They're part of the global war for the future of humanity. They don't get to be neutral. No one does. Just as what America does matters and there's no real expectation outsiders won't care, France is likewise just important enough for outsiders to care, and their opinion on its irrelevant.

I mean, sure, I don't have the power to actually do anything. But if I did have the power, even to the level of knowing 3-4 French people who I could turn on some issue, I would be well within my right to use it. Some would even say I have an obligation to.

 

[ATP]

In modern politics,you get not best,but less bad.But - France,at least,have alternatives better then Germany or England.
And Foreign Legion.
If you ask me which countries survive in Europe till 2050,France have best chance in my opinion.

 

[Lord Sovereign]

French people know how to successfully throw corrupt elite out of power; they're got more practice at it than most western countries.

France?

My good man, their history has been a laundry list of tragedies and follies since 1789. They seem to be quite good at reacting to problems of government, but then they give in to radicalism and everything becomes worse.

History would have been happier if King Louis XVI hadn't been murdered. CMV.

 

[Zachowon]

France?

My good man, their history has been a laundry list of tragedies and follies since 1789. They seem to be quite good at reacting to problems of government, but then they give in to radicalism and everything becomes worse.

History would have been happier if King Louis XVI hadn't been murdered. CMV.

Napoleon was Frances greatest leader.

 

[King Arts]

France?

My good man, their history has been a laundry list of tragedies and follies since 1789. They seem to be quite good at reacting to problems of government, but then they give in to radicalism and everything becomes worse.

History would have been happier if King Louis XVI hadn't been murdered. CMV.

So says an Englishman. Louis was incompetent but the terror was sucky however Napoleon was great.