Election 2020 Election Fraud: Let's face it, this year will be a shitshow

[Es Arcanum]

Here's a commentary from Rasmussen which does look hopeful for Trump but I'm not going to start singing the praises of any polling companies just yet. They haven't exactly been covering themselves in glory.

Are the Polls Trending for Trump?

Several weeks ago, presidential opinion polls showed Joe Biden with a double-digit lead over Donald Trump, like the supposed lead Hillary Clinton enjoyed four years ago. Despite prognostications of an almost certain Clinton victory, reality provided a different story ending.Will the big media be...

www.rasmussenreports.com

"Rasmussen Reports, one of the most accurate pollsters in the 2016 election, shows a significant narrowing in its White House Watch poll, from a 12-point Biden lead two weeks ago to a 3-point lead a week ago. Now it’s Trump by one."

 

[Bacle]

I think people need to keep an eye on where new 'Stay-at-Home'/lockdown orders are being talked about/implemented, just a week before the election. The media is hyping up Covid, and they did talk about expecting a 2nd/3rd wave when cold weather started to hit.

There is already a new order that came out for El Paso which is, for now, in effect for two weeks.

Things like this could impact in-person voting situations, espicially in swing states/battleground states, and Texas is more worrily blue than I would like.

Though if the area is hard-D anyway it won't really affect things much either way.

 

[lordmcdeath]

I know that most people pulling for the President having been saying how utterly useless and pointless the polls are, by and large. And there are a couple that have alternative models based on social desirability, and reluctant trump vote. But nothing about how the non-Trump republicans are acting indicates that is what they are thinking. Honestly, I've been listening to the Fox News pollsters since this began, as its unlikely they will be deeply enough in the tank for the Dems to deliberately sacrifice their companies to boost/save Biden.

I personally think Trump has made serious in roads with the Cuban and Venezuelan population, along with possibly drawing 10-12% of African Americans. But unfortunately, he has paid for it by a reduction of support from suburban women and now with covid, seniors. Who are extremely reliable voters and whose communities tend to have more resources setting up polling stations and the like.

Trump could surprise us all, and I'm pretty certain he's going to carry Florida. But I don't think he's going to out perform the aggregate by more than he did last time.

 

[Zachowon]

I know that most people pulling for the President having been saying how utterly useless and pointless the polls are, by and large. And there are a couple that have alternative models based on social desirability, and reluctant trump vote. But nothing about how the non-Trump republicans are acting indicates that is what they are thinking. Honestly, I've been listening to the Fox News pollsters since this began, as its unlikely they will be deeply enough in the tank for the Dems to deliberately sacrifice their companies to boost/save Biden.

I personally think Trump has made serious in roads with the Cuban and Venezuelan population, along with possibly drawing 10-12% of African Americans. But unfortunately, he has paid for it by a reduction of support from suburban women and now with covid, seniors. Who are extremely reliable voters and whose communities tend to have more resources setting up polling stations and the like.

Trump could surprise us all, and I'm pretty certain he's going to carry Florida. But I don't think he's going to out perform the aggregate by more than he did last time.

Why do you think he lost Surbrban woman and COVID seniors?

 

[Bigking321]

You're missing all the people the far leftists have driven away from the democrats.

 

[Bacle]

You're missing all the people the far leftists have driven away from the democrats.

Yeah, the media has purposely ignored the Walkaway movement and pollsters probably have as well.

 

[Emperor Tippy]

I know that most people pulling for the President having been saying how utterly useless and pointless the polls are, by and large. And there are a couple that have alternative models based on social desirability, and reluctant trump vote. But nothing about how the non-Trump republicans are acting indicates that is what they are thinking. Honestly, I've been listening to the Fox News pollsters since this began, as its unlikely they will be deeply enough in the tank for the Dems to deliberately sacrifice their companies to boost/save Biden.

I personally think Trump has made serious in roads with the Cuban and Venezuelan population, along with possibly drawing 10-12% of African Americans. But unfortunately, he has paid for it by a reduction of support from suburban women and now with covid, seniors. Who are extremely reliable voters and whose communities tend to have more resources setting up polling stations and the like.

Trump could surprise us all, and I'm pretty certain he's going to carry Florida. But I don't think he's going to out perform the aggregate by more than he did last time.

Trafalgar is about the best you are going to find for the in depth breakdown, and they are showing independents breaking for Trump 2:1 in most of the battlegrounds.

Election 2020 Public Polling Project

The Inside The Numbers™ Election 2020 Public Polling Project conducted by Big Data Poll, funded solely by viewers, the first ever such project.

www.bigdatapoll.com

They are updating PA, AZ, and WI today.

The fundamental problem with the aggregate is that is makes no fucking sense. Polling that shows Biden by 7 to 10 (or more) does not drop to Biden by 2-4 in a week or two unless there are a huge number of undecided voters and no poll has shown that to be the case.

For Biden to actually be up by the polling aggregate with current turnout figures & projections then he needs to be pulling roughly 20% from Registered Republicans without losing any Dem's. In a year where every non polling metric shows Trump favored.

And if Biden is, in reality, only up by two to four percent then all of the polls making up the aggregate need to be tossed because they are fundamentally flawed somewhere; the polling is essentially worthless if it has actually gone from Biden plus 10 to Biden plus 3. In most cases that is literally a shift of half again to double the polls margin of error. In a year with minimal to no undecideds.

If you look at NC, really useful because of how it breaks down registration data by detailed demographics, then it also becomes plain that the non-white millenial vote isn't turning out at scale for Biden. He might slightly beat Hillary numbers, but he isn't going to touch Obama's youth turnout.

 

[Rocinante]

What CloudResearch Found

11.7% of Republicans say they would not report their true opinions about their preferred presidential candidate on telephone polls.

In contrast, just 5.4% of Democrats say they’d be reluctant to share their true voting intentions — roughly half the number of Republicans reluctant to tell the truth on phone polls.

10.5% of Independents fell into the “shy voter” category, just a percentage point lower than how Republicans react to phone polls.

Study: Are Election 2020 Poll Respondents Honest About Their Vote?

The ‘shy Trump voter’ was a common topic of poll analysts following the 2016 presidential upset – but do they exist? New research helps shed light on polling accuracy and honesty.

www.cloudresearch.com

6.3% difference on which side is lying to pollsters...Favoring Trump.

So you can minus 6.3% for Biden for any polls that don't account for this.

If a margin of error is 4%, that would put anything around 10%+ for Biden, as essentially a tie.

That's not accounting for other factors that may effect polls.

People are lying to the pollsters. That 11.7% is just the people admitting they're lying. There might be more.

I think it'll be a close race. These polls are utterly broken.

 

[MelancholicMechanicus]

Wew lad, the gall of some people

 

[Duke Nukem]

Wew lad, the gall of some people

I hope Trump sees this.

 

[lordmcdeath]

Study: Are Election 2020 Poll Respondents Honest About Their Vote?

The ‘shy Trump voter’ was a common topic of poll analysts following the 2016 presidential upset – but do they exist? New research helps shed light on polling accuracy and honesty.

www.cloudresearch.com

6.3% difference on which side is lying to pollsters...Favoring Trump.

So you can minus 6.3% for Biden for any polls that don't account for this.

If a margin of error is 4%, that would put anything around 10%+ for Biden, as essentially a tie.

That's not accounting for other factors that may effect polls.

People are lying to the pollsters. That 11.7% is just the people admitting they're lying. There might be more.

I think it'll be a close race. These polls are utterly broken.

The problem is that was in now way reflected in 2018. If it was people lying about voting for Trump in specific, you might be able to argue these tendencies will make it happen. But Trump over performed his polls by ~2% in 2016 against what could only be described as corruption in a pantsuit. The 2016 State level polling in the Blue wall was bad, but this would make it meaningless.

Republicans beat the spread in the Senate by about 2%, but it was far closer for House and Governor races.

The sort of margin of error described is basically the death of polling. I could see the MSM doing it, as they have their viewers. But why would fox and the independents? Fox isn't in the tank for Biden, and the Independent's entire business model relies on being right enough to be plausible.

They have to be either uniquely wrong this year of all years, or for people with a vested financial interest sacrificing it for Joe Biden. The weekend at Bernies candidate. No amount of Orange Man bad is going to get them to do it deliberately, and the other doesn't explain why 2018 was closer.

 

[Rocinante]

The problem is that was in now way reflected in 2018. If it was people lying about voting for Trump in specific, you might be able to argue these tendencies will make it happen. But Trump over performed his polls by ~2% in 2016 against what could only be described as corruption in a pantsuit. The 2016 State level polling in the Blue wall was bad, but this would make it meaningless.

Republicans beat the spread in the Senate by about 2%, but it was far closer for House and Governor races.

The sort of margin of error described is basically the death of polling. I could see the MSM doing it, as they have their viewers. But why would fox and the independents? Fox isn't in the tank for Biden, and the Independent's entire business model relies on being right enough to be plausible.

They have to be either uniquely wrong this year of all years, or for people with a vested financial interest sacrificing it for Joe Biden. The weekend at Bernies candidate. No amount of Orange Man bad is going to get them to do it deliberately, and the other doesn't explain why 2018 was closer.

So he over performed his polls by 2% in 2016, before people dealt with years of full blown cancel culture. Before riots in the streets.

People weren't as afraid to share their political stances back then.

It's not 2016. With the news from my post we potentially could see him over performing polls by around 6%. Maybe up to 10% If the margin of error already accounted for ands up going full Trump.

 

[lordmcdeath]

So he over performed his polls by 2% in 2016, before people dealt with years of full blown cancel culture. Before riots in the streets.

People weren't as afraid to share their political stances back then.

It's not 2016. With the news from my post we potentially could see him over performing polls by around 6%. Maybe up to 10% If the margin of error already accounted for ands up going full Trump.

I am not contending just 2016, but also 2018. That had 2 years of Trump, polarization, and full blown cancel culture. It didn't have the riots, but your contention would require the Shy Trump voter in 2020 to be higher than the Shy Republican in 2018 by nearly 200%.

And 2018 did show the shift of suburban and college educated women away from the Republicans. Why else would Trump be asking them to like him in his rallies.

Beyond that, why would no other pollster be following Trafalgar or correcting in other ways. For those who do this professionally, this is both their job and market. Why would they deliberately fail to correct again?

 

[ReggieLedoux]

If anything, another Trump victory is a fucking field day for Pollsters. First of all, correctly guessing the underdog will give your polling company a shitload of credibility with the public come next election. Secondly, Trump is a controversial guy. People are paying more attention in these two elections than probably any since the eighties. Boom time to be a polling aggregrate and throw a shitload of ads on your website people are checking literally every five minutes. If anyone wants Trump to win and to correctly guess it, it's probably pollsters.

 

[Basileus_Komnenos]

People weren't as afraid to share their political stances back then.

It's not 2016. With the news from my post we potentially could see him over performing polls by around 6%. Maybe up to 10% If the margin of error already accounted for ands up going full Trump.

Yeah this is true. As far as some of my more left leaning friends go, they don’t really know anything about my politics since I usually change the subject or don’t talk about it at all.

If anything, another Trump victory is a fucking field day for Pollsters. First of all, correctly guessing the underdog will give your polling company a shitload of credibility with the public come next election. Secondly, Trump is a controversial guy. People are paying more attention in these two elections than probably any since the eighties. Boom time to be a polling aggregrate and throw a shitload of ads on your website people are checking literally every five minutes. If anyone wants Trump to win and to correctly guess it, it's probably pollsters.

I dunno know about that my friend. A lot of these pollsters are basically overestimating Biden’s favorability by oversampling more Democrats. They also don’t account for shy Trump supporters or those burned by both parties and simply sitting out the election. The polls are also a business and earn revenue by tailoring to the media which is supposed to shape public opinion. Now the media is widely despised and distrusted, but the Left leaning elites are simply too out of touch to see this fact.

 

[ReggieLedoux]

I dunno know about that my friend. A lot of these pollsters are basically overestimating Biden’s favorability by oversampling more Democrats. They also don’t account for shy Trump supporters or those burned by both parties and simply sitting out the election. The polls are also a business and earn revenue by tailoring to the media which is supposed to shape public opinion. Now the media is widely despised and distrusted, but the Left leaning elites are simply too out of touch to see this fact.

See, that doesn't make sense.

The Pollsters are not "The media". They are certainly used by the media, but they are just gathering information and displaying. No doubt that thtere are loads that purposefully skew the results either way to appeal to fucking idiots that just want to be validated with "look! my guy on track to win 50 states! Check out what this totallylegitpollingnotafrontfortheccp@putin.rus/saudi.tv says!", but that will only appeal to a few smoothbrains. Most actually want to be accurate because their careers are based on this. Loads of Pollsters took pretty big hits to their credibility last election, and it caused a major shuffle in the way they checked for things precisely so that their reputations aren't ruined again. Reputation is key because their business is built on it at this point. The Nate Silver's of the world cannot take another mistake like 2016, and to just assume they are ignoring shit because their nebulous overlords told them not to is dumb.

Especially if they want to do this again next election. You're just trying desperately to ignore hard statistics, and fine, that's a fair bias given what happened last time, but it's not exactly smart for the pollsters themselves to do the same thing again and deliberately ruin their careers because "orange man bad".

 

[Floridaman]

See, that doesn't make sense.

The Pollsters are not "The media". They are certainly used by the media, but they are just gathering information and displaying. No doubt that thtere are loads that purposefully skew the results either way to appeal to fucking idiots that just want to be validated with "look! my guy on track to win 50 states! Check out what this totallylegitpollingnotafrontfortheccp@putin.rus/saudi.tv says!", but that will only appeal to a few smoothbrains. Most actually want to be accurate because their careers are based on this. Loads of Pollsters took pretty big hits to their credibility last election, and it caused a major shuffle in the way they checked for things precisely so that their reputations aren't ruined again. Reputation is key because their business is built on it at this point. The Nate Silver's of the world cannot take another mistake like 2016, and to just assume they are ignoring shit because their nebulous overlords told them not to is dumb.

Especially if they want to do this again next election. You're just trying desperately to ignore hard statistics, and fine, that's a fair bias given what happened last time, but it's not exactly smart for the pollsters themselves to do the same thing again and deliberately ruin their careers because "orange man bad".

Here is the thing. First people have admitted they will lie, so even if the pollsters want to be accurate they can't. Second if they poll in places where in the past they got a sample doesnt mean the sample is useful with the shifts in support.

 

[PsihoKekec]

The Pollsters are not "The media".

But they are tied to media and one of the biggest rules in that business is to say what your paymaster wants to hear even if it isn't true. Hell the media itself was supposed to ''just gather information and display it'' but they moved from partisanship to open agitprop, same with social media platforms. They have customers who pay the bill and they better present the product they demand, which certainly isn't the objective truth. The Rasmussen can be relied upon to be somewhat accurate, the rest of them... not really.

 

[lordmcdeath]

But they are tied to media and one of the biggest rules in that business is to say what your paymaster wants to hear even if it isn't true. Hell the media itself was supposed to ''just gather information and display it'' but they moved from partisanship to open agitprop, same with social media platforms. They have customers who pay the bill and they better present the product they demand, which certainly isn't the objective truth. The Rasmussen can be relied upon to be somewhat accurate, the rest of them... not really.

The media is biased because it gets them a customer base that is more easily provided with content, and they make money through advertising, so they generally need to have them in a receptive mood. That means not challenging them. Polling is only useful so long as people believe its accurate, unless its push polling and the media would rather they be write and then explain them away.

And just as a note, that is the worst rule I've ever heard in Business. If I hire any service, the last thing I am going to want is a yes man. There is no business in the world that anyone would deal with more than once that operates on telling you what you want to here. If an engineering firm works that way, products fail, if an inspector works that way people die. Any consultant operating as just a yes man, isn't going to be business for long.

 

[Floridaman]

The media is biased because it gets them a customer base that is more easily provided with content, and they make money through advertising, so they generally need to have them in a receptive mood. That means not challenging them. Polling is only useful so long as people believe its accurate, unless its push polling and the media would rather they be write and then explain them away.

And just as a note, that is the worst rule I've ever heard in Business. If I hire any service, the last thing I am going to want is a yes man. There is no business in the world that anyone would deal with more than once that operates on telling you what you want to here. If an engineering firm works that way, products fail, if an inspector works that way people die. Any consultant operating as just a yes man, isn't going to be business for long.

And if the media and pollsters are wrong nothing happens because clearly you weren't wrong, the election was stolen by insert reason here.