Election 2020 Election Fraud: Let's face it, this year will be a shitshow

Basileus_Komnenos

Imperator Romanorum Βασιλεύς των Ρωμαίων
I guess the media's doing full damage control in regards to the shifting polls. They must be really scared that this is gonna be a bizarre repeat of 2016.

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I came across this this afternoon. Here's the link to the article if you guys read see it.
 

Emperor Tippy

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The problem is that was in now way reflected in 2018. If it was people lying about voting for Trump in specific, you might be able to argue these tendencies will make it happen. But Trump over performed his polls by ~2% in 2016 against what could only be described as corruption in a pantsuit. The 2016 State level polling in the Blue wall was bad, but this would make it meaningless.

Republicans beat the spread in the Senate by about 2%, but it was far closer for House and Governor races.

The sort of margin of error described is basically the death of polling. I could see the MSM doing it, as they have their viewers. But why would fox and the independents? Fox isn't in the tank for Biden, and the Independent's entire business model relies on being right enough to be plausible.

They have to be either uniquely wrong this year of all years, or for people with a vested financial interest sacrificing it for Joe Biden. The weekend at Bernies candidate. No amount of Orange Man bad is going to get them to do it deliberately, and the other doesn't explain why 2018 was closer.

2018 is drastically misrepresented in the media. Republican turnout in 2018 averaged 2014+10% turnout; that is good for an off year election. Democrat turnout averaged 70 to 90% of Clinton's 2016 turnout. 2018 wasn't Republicans switching, it wasn't new voters, it wasn't Republicans staying home; it was Democrats being energized enough to turn out most of their Presidential base in a midterm. It is not representative of 2020.

The 2020 polls are flatly wrong. they have to be. Biden has been up anywhere from 8 to 12 points in most of them for literally the past several months with no poll showing any substantial number of undecided voters. It's only in the past few days that those polls are narrowing down to 4-6 percent; in many cases the poll is literally shifting by more than twice its margin of error inside of two weeks. A poll conducted of this electorate using the same methodology and model will not shift like that; period. The mere fact that they have means the poll is basically worthless.

And yes, people lie to pollsters (Trump supporters at twice the rate of Biden supporters according to multiple polls) but that doesn't explain the issue. What does is fundamental polling error.

The demographic groups that make up Trump's largest voting blocs are incredibly hard (in some cases basically impossible) to poll. Take PA, you simply can't just go down the phone book and call white Republicans in PA to get a representative sample of white Republicans in PA. Polish Americans, Italian Americans, Dutch Americans, and the Amish are all essentially impossible to poll via telephone or regular online; they simply don't respond. Who does respond is those who just identify as "white", trend higher for education & wages, and live in the suburban areas. Without correcting for this, you will on average overrepresent this group five fold and they only break Trump by a few points (and are the most likely group to move to Biden). Polish Americans though are favoring Trump in far larger margins and they have fairly heavy representation in Philly.

So you poll white people in Philly and you are going to miss the poles who favor Trump at a higher rate than basically any other group in Philly.

That is just one of dozens of similar errors that show up in pretty much all mainstream polls and is not corrected for. Stack those errors onto one another and you end up massively off.

For the polls to be accurate, either registered Republicans need to be voting Biden at ~20% or turnout would need to be massively higher. Trump has 90%+ approval from Republicans, they aren't going Biden at the rate of 20%. And turnout among the needed demos for Biden just isn't there - in any competitive state so far.

I am not contending just 2016, but also 2018. That had 2 years of Trump, polarization, and full blown cancel culture. It didn't have the riots, but your contention would require the Shy Trump voter in 2020 to be higher than the Shy Republican in 2018 by nearly 200%.

And 2018 did show the shift of suburban and college educated women away from the Republicans. Why else would Trump be asking them to like him in his rallies.
Misrepresentation of the data, suburban and college educated women didn't break with Republicans in 2018; it was just that those who favored Hillary in the first place showed up at a substantially larger rate than those who favored Republicans did. It wasn't switching party.

Beyond that, why would no other pollster be following Trafalgar or correcting in other ways. For those who do this professionally, this is both their job and market. Why would they deliberately fail to correct again?
Trump Derangement Syndrome, a failure to recognize that the old standards no longer function, and financial incentives.

If anything, another Trump victory is a fucking field day for Pollsters. First of all, correctly guessing the underdog will give your polling company a shitload of credibility with the public come next election. Secondly, Trump is a controversial guy. People are paying more attention in these two elections than probably any since the eighties. Boom time to be a polling aggregrate and throw a shitload of ads on your website people are checking literally every five minutes. If anyone wants Trump to win and to correctly guess it, it's probably pollsters.

Except that the overwhelming majority of the pollsters and their employees are staunch Never Trumpers. As are the newsrooms and those commissioning the polls.

Again, a Biden +10% (or more) poll in a swing state is flatly insane. It doesn't pass the smell test. To get those numbers you either need to 1) massively grow the Dem base with new voters or 2) get Republicans to defect in droves. Republicans are winning the Registration fight, and largely because of Democrats losing voters (switching to Independent or Republican); and early turnout numbers don't show any indication of substantive base growth. And if 2 was true then Trump wouldn't maintain his sky high approval rating among Republicans.


See, that doesn't make sense.

The Pollsters are not "The media". They are certainly used by the media, but they are just gathering information and displaying. No doubt that thtere are loads that purposefully skew the results either way to appeal to fucking idiots that just want to be validated with "look! my guy on track to win 50 states! Check out what this totallylegitpollingnotafrontfortheccp@putin.rus/saudi.tv says!", but that will only appeal to a few smoothbrains. Most actually want to be accurate because their careers are based on this. Loads of Pollsters took pretty big hits to their credibility last election, and it caused a major shuffle in the way they checked for things precisely so that their reputations aren't ruined again. Reputation is key because their business is built on it at this point. The Nate Silver's of the world cannot take another mistake like 2016, and to just assume they are ignoring shit because their nebulous overlords told them not to is dumb.

Especially if they want to do this again next election. You're just trying desperately to ignore hard statistics, and fine, that's a fair bias given what happened last time, but it's not exactly smart for the pollsters themselves to do the same thing again and deliberately ruin their careers because "orange man bad".

Being not pro Clinton enough got an AP pollster fired in 2016. Nate Silver is literally going on twitter and saying that Trump winning means he stole the election.

TDS is a serious mental illness.

The media is biased because it gets them a customer base that is more easily provided with content, and they make money through advertising, so they generally need to have them in a receptive mood. That means not challenging them. Polling is only useful so long as people believe its accurate, unless its push polling and the media would rather they be write and then explain them away.
Except who is the market?

The Trump supporters don't trust the polls in the first place. They don't engage with 538 (or any of the rest) because of their open and unapologetic anti-Trump bias. They only engage with the mainstream media to mock them.

The customer base for all of those organizations is staunchly pro-Biden and anti-Trump. Telling them that Biden is going to win in a landslide makes that customer base happy.
 

Duke Nukem

Hail to the king baby

Duke Nukem

Hail to the king baby
Lol

 

Emperor Tippy

Merchant of Death
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Just get it to happen in Nevada.

Otherwise, Bugs Bunny is going to get to express his views a few times. Seriously, look at the voter rolls for Clark County (Vegas).

I mean you want the place in the nation most likely to have state shifting election fraud at scale, it is Nevada.
 

Free-Stater 101

Freedom Means Freedom!!!
Nuke Mod
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Lol

We love voting in America so much that we have all have decided to vote twice!
 

Husky_Khan

The Dog Whistler... I mean Whisperer.
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Sotnik

LifeisTiresome

Well-known member
the nation is going to burn isn't it?
Yes.

The tolerant left (Liberal and Leftist) for you.

From Kiwifarms:

1604266013301-jpg.1700601


We need to firebomb Middle America and destroy all structures and kill tons of people living in a geographic region to stop Hitler. All because a woman did not get what was deemed was always to be hers cause muh vagina.

raped-jpg.1700706


Leftists love pretending that they care about children and that they are concerned about children and they love going on about how horrible rape is and yet they wish it on you if you oppose them. So much for such things being the end of the universe. Its almost as if its only seen as end of the universe cause its power play by feminists and leftism.

Never mind that we had Bernie boys going on about re-education camps.
 

Arch Dornan

Oh, lovely. They've sent me a mo-ron.
Yes.

The tolerant left (Liberal and Leftist) for you.

From Kiwifarms:

1604266013301-jpg.1700601


We need to firebomb Middle America and destroy all structures and kill tons of people living in a geographic region to stop Hitler. All because a woman did not get what was deemed was always to be hers cause muh vagina.

raped-jpg.1700706


Leftists love pretending that they care about children and that they are concerned about children and they love going on about how horrible rape is and yet they wish it on you if you oppose them. So much for such things being the end of the universe. Its almost as if its only seen as end of the universe cause its power play by feminists and leftism.

Never mind that we had Bernie boys going on about re-education camps.
Remember they love to see you and your children raped yada yada and they think it's funny from Sam Hyde.
 

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