United States Biden administration policies and actions - megathread

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LordsFire said:
China cannot afford a general trade embargo of Taiwan.

Why?

Because that's where all their high-end chip supply comes from. They would immediately crash not just current high-end electronics production, but the ability to do any more until they open trade up again.

Meanwhile, literally everybody else in the world wants those chips.

Now granted, it would hit Taiwan harder than it would hit China, and if they really stuck it out, they might actually be able to force Taiwan into submission.

But the thing is, for the entire duration of that embargo, what would happen to their ability to sell goods dependent on Taiwanese imports, as their own exports?

It would completely destroy them, that's what. And as Covid already proved, there are a lot of companies willing to start moving their production lines elsewhere if China makes it worth the initial cost of moving things. China is no longer the super-cheap labor supply of the world, they're not even close, and that means various companies have a lot less reason to put up with their BS.

And of course, those production lines that are being built elsewhere would be buying from the Taiwanese.


Again, the Chinese leadership might be butthurt enough to do it anyways. They might be crazy tro push it through to the end anyways. But the long-term game there actually favors Taiwan, not China, because Taiwan only really has one enemy, China, which means that most of the rest of the world is perfectly happy to trade with them, and some places (like Vietnam) will take a particular vicious satisfaction in doing so.
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Eh, sorta.

I do agree that, like a strike, the stick of an embargo is probably more effective in the threat than the practice. Threatening a $125 billion loss now, in exchange for some relatively minor concession now, which may increase the leverage in the future, has a higher degree of success. Once an embargo is actually implemented, if it doesn't cause a capitulation in 1-2 weeks, like you said you start routing around the blocks and things can mostly adjust.

But, yeah, full trade embargo would not be something you really implement except as the "weakening pre invasion" stage, either because some other thing is forcing up the timetable, or China believes they've gotten Taiwan up to the "just a little extra pressure to get them to surrender without a fight". Its more useful in lower level negotiations "hey, were both makes hundreds of billion of dollars here, do you really want to sabotage this profitable relationship over this little thing?". Of course, each little concession leaves one potentially in a weaker position for the next round of negotiations. Like, "you've already agreed to censor everything you export to the mainland, no? Whats really at stake in expanding that locally as well? It will move your products to a uniform standard, and we'll know we can rely on you and won't have to build up a domestic replacement who we know will play ball."

As to chip reliance, that stick Taiwan can theoretically wave, to whatever degree it is real, is also weakening. China might not be the global cheap option, but they're probably the cheap option compared to Tiawan, and their own domestic chip manufacturing is catching up itself: they want to get in on the lucrative market just as much as anyone else, and it lowers anyone else leverage over them. Quick google suggests they're plan is to get 14 nm production in 2022ish. This is not high end high end, but it is apparently something like a 60-80% solution.

14nm technology has the greatest market value today
Mass production of 14nm and 12nm chips is critically important to the semiconductor industry, said Dr. Wen. According to statistics, sales of 14nm chips accounted for 65% of the entire USD200 billion semiconductor market in the first half of 2019, whereas 25% of sales were of 10nm and 12nm chips, and only 10% of chip sales were accounted for by 7nm technology.

While 28nm technology is already very mature in the global semiconductor industry, 10nm technology or above is still cutting-edge, and only a few top players, such as TSMC, Samsung and Intel, have started using this technology, observed Dr. Wen.

So 14nm technology, which is in the middle of the two, has become the main processing technology for most mid-to-high-end chips, has the widest range of uses, and is the most highly valued in the market. It has great development potential in AI chips, high-end processors, and for the automotive market, while other applications include high-end consumer electronics, high-speed computing, low-order power amplifiers and baseband.

Along with 12nm technology, 14nm chips are capable of meeting 70% of the needs of current semiconductor manufacturing demand. Mid-range 5G chips are already using 12nm technology, and 14nm technology can meet the needs of the manufacturing process required by desktop CPUs.
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So, Taiwan probably has less leverage next year, and if China can keep developing its chip industry, will have less leverage the next year.

But, true, the embargo leverage is more useful for boiling the frog than flash frying it.
 
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Geez.
Most likely just monitoring ti make sure he doesn't do anything rash
Again, done with people who are at risk of personal injury..
 
Zachowon said:
Geez.
Most likely just monitoring ti make sure he doesn't do anything rash
Again, done with people who are at risk of personal injury..
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No one is buying that Zach, not after the vids he put out.

This is a rather transperant attempt to discredit Scheller via impuning his mental health and attempting to control his movements/freedoms, so he cannot bring more bad press to the Biden admin.
 
Bacle said:
No one is buying that Zach, not after the vids he put out.

This is a rather transperant attempt to discredit Scheller via impuning his mental health and attempting to control his movements/freedoms, so he cannot bring more bad press to the Biden admin.
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This is a legit normal thing done to anyone who is in a position like his.
Because people do get suicidal or worse.
It is just a precaution because he potentially lost any benefits and everything.

No it isn't trying to discredit him.
It is them saying because kf what happend, he may suffer from one.

This is why civilians should have no say ok the mikitary unless they served.
 
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THE LEGACY MEDIA IS STILL TRYING TO MUDDY THE WATERS ON THE AFGHANISTAN DISASTER




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North Korea appears to have restarted key nuclear reactor: UN watchdog

www.foxnews.com

North Korea appears to have restarted key nuclear reactor: UN watchdog

Evidence has emerged that North Korea has restarted a nuclear reactor believed to be capable of producing weapons-grade plutonium in a development called “deeply troubling,” Reuters reported, citing the International Atomic Energy Agency.
www.foxnews.com www.foxnews.com


Evidence has emerged that North Korea has restarted a nuclear reactor believed to be capable of producing weapons-grade plutonium in a development called "deeply troubling," Reuters reported, citing the International Atomic Energy Agency.

The IAEA’s report, which was released on Friday, said the reactor in question is located in the city of Yongbyon. Since last month, there have been "indications consistent with the operation" of the reactor. One key piece of evidence was the discharge of cooling water at the facility, the report said.

Leif Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, told the Financial Times that it seems as though the North Koreans were not intent on being discreet and could be getting ready to use Yongbyon as a bargaining chip in negotiations.

"But even if Pyongyang is considering returning to negotiations…it may lead off with a missile test rather than diplomatic engagement," he said.

The Reuters report pointed out that the country’s last nuclear test was in 2017 but the UN agency does not have access to the site after being expelled in 2009. The agency now uses commercial satellite images and other methods to monitor the facilities.

The report said there were indications of the operation of Yongbyon’s radiochemical laboratory from mid-February to early July this year.

"(North Korea’s) nuclear activities continue to be a cause for serious concern. Furthermore, the new indications of the operation of the 5-megawatt reactor and the radiochemical laboratory are deeply troubling," the IAEA said.
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Gee wilkers, I wonder why North Korea is doing this now. MUST BE A TOTAL COINCIDENCE.
 
Zachowon said:
This is a legit normal thing done to anyone who is in a position like his.
Because people do get suicidal or worse.
It is just a precaution because he potentially lost any benefits and everything.

No it isn't trying to discredit him.
It is them saying because kf what happend, he may suffer from one.

This is why civilians should have no say ok the mikitary unless they served.
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Yeah, he may lose benefits, but he knew what he was doing, his follow up vid did not show a man who was at all mentally unwell or concerned about lack of said benefits, and in fact called for more people to take the step he did.

They are not doing this for his wellbeing, they are doing it to attempt to impune his mental state and discredit him, because if they did not, more people may follow his example, and demand accountability regardless of what it does to their careers.

Also, saying people who have never served should have no say in the military is rather hilarious, given that that also mean you think you shouldn't have to listen any part of the civie gov that hasn't served.

You're kneejerk defense of nearly everything the US military does, and your barely concealed disdain for civies who dare to question the US military...simping for the Empire ain't gonna save you, Crosshair.
 
Bacle said:
Yeah, he may lose benefits, but he knew what he was doing, his follow up vid did not show a man who was at all mentally unwell or concerned about lack of said benefits, and in fact called for more people to take the step he did.

They are not doing this for his wellbeing, they are doing it to attempt to impune his mental state and discredit him, because if they did not, more people may follow his example, and demand accountability regardless of what it does to their careers.

Also, saying people who have never served should have no say in the military is rather hilarious, given that that also mean you think you shouldn't have to listen any part of the civie gov that hasn't served.

You're kneejerk defense of nearly everything the US military does, and your barely concealed disdain for civies who dare to question the US military...simping for the Empire ain't gonna save you, Crosshair.
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Look, I'm just telling you that this is standard for the mikitary to do.
 
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