United States Biden administration policies and actions - megathread

[Jormungandr]

Stationing nukes in Taiwan would be a fucking stupid idea. I'm all for defending Taiwan against Xinnie the Poo and his cronies, but that's not the way to do it.

He does have a point, though: Biden has destroyed what credibility the US had as an ally. You guys need him and his ilk out of Office. Now.

Hell, at this point you lot would be better off if another JFK scenario actually occurred, and that's saying something about how bad things have gotten out there!

 

[strunkenwhite]

Xi's choice would be make it politically viable for CCP, or face the US a lot earlier than he wanted to.

People want to harp on how important Taiwan is and how vital it's defense is to the US. How about they advocate for a real move to secure Taiwan's sovereignty in the form of stationing tac nukes there, like we do in Turkey, and treat them as the sovereign nation they are.

Unless of course most of the politics around Taiwan are really us being stuck defending them in pertpetuity because we offshored too much tech infrastructure to them, while not actually recognizing their sovereignty because we still wanted to play ball with the CCP.

If I had to guess, I suspect that Xi would respond to American nukes headed to Taiwan by pulling the trigger on conventional warfare and hoping that the fact that the USA provoked the situation would make our allies less likely to help out, make other countries remain neutral instead of turn hostile to China, etc. And that the USA would not decide to do a first nuclear strike and set off nuclear war.

Like I'm all in favor of reducing our dependence by spinning up other sources of semiconductors, and I believe I heard that the infrastructure package includes movement in that direction (but could be more), but there's really no call for silly escalation like trying to station nuclear missiles in Taiwan. If you want to provoke the Chinese, officially recognizing Taiwan as a separate country would be much less unwise (in comparison).

 

[JagerIV]

I was not referring to Biden. I was referring to us as a country. And no Taiwan is not a part of China. They are their own country.

This has not been the official American stance for 50 years. Which comes to the original question, are we going to throw away 50 years of promises and honor to China? Mainland China is the one we've been making promises to since the 70s, not Taiwan.

Its my sense the Mainland plans to take back Taiwan at some point, the US's official policy since the 70s has been China takes back Taiwan at some point, the businesses in Taiwan from what I've heard have already made their deals for how they'll be integrated into the Chinese system, the Taiwanese government has aquesed to eventual conquest through perpetual draw down of the scale of the military.

No one of any real power or influence seems to have any real plan or interest in Taiwan not being integrated into China outside some, well, powerless westerners. Most likely I think is Taiwan goes like Hong Kong.

 

[The One Char]

This has not been the official American stance for 50 years. Which comes to the original question, are we going to throw away 50 years of promises and honor to China? Mainland China is the one we've been making promises to since the 70s, not Taiwan.

Its my sense the Mainland plans to take back Taiwan at some point, the US's official policy since the 70s has been China takes back Taiwan at some point, the businesses in Taiwan from what I've heard have already made their deals for how they'll be integrated into the Chinese system, the Taiwanese government has aquesed to eventual conquest through perpetual draw down of the scale of the military.

No one of any real power or influence seems to have any real plan or interest in Taiwan not being integrated into China outside some, well, powerless westerners. Most likely I think is Taiwan goes like Hong Kong.

Nah, fuck that. And the people of Taiwan don't agree with you. And China has economically stabbed us in the for the 30 years, so fuck those promises.

 

[JagerIV]

Nah, fuck that. And the people of Taiwan don't agree with you. And China has economically stabbed us in the for the 30 years, so fuck those promises.

"the powerful do what they will, the weak suffer what they must".

While I don't support putting nukes on Taiwan, I also don't really support going to war with China over Taiwan either. Taiwan, by itself, looses.

As to the Taiwanese themselves, well, collectively they are the weak vs the strong here, the big question being just how weak they actually are. Which comes down to how much resistance they are actually willing to give.

This weakness, on top the sense of inevitability the Chinese have been purposefully cultivating since the 70s, with American support, makes me doubt how strongly they would really resist, especially if it was clear we were not willing to go to the mat for them, which the refusal to station Nukes and almost all our actions since the 70s suggest we will not, probably means the number of Taiwanese willing to throw away their life in a pointless display of resistance is probably fairly small.

As to what the Taiwanese think themselves, to whatever degree they practically have any say in this matter, pro - china support is the minority, but a fairly substantial one:

In Taiwan, Views of Mainland China Mostly Negative

There is widespread support in Taiwan for increased economic and political ties with the U.S. While many are wary of stronger political ties with mainland China, about half would favor stronger economic relations.

www.pewresearch.org

There's a lot more graphs in there, but most of them show an about 35% general positive feeling to china. If even 1% of the 35% who support closer political relationship with China would be active and enthusiastic collaborators with the takeover, were talking about 35,000 active collaborators in Taiwan. And there's already some signs the current business elite would much rather transition to being regulated by china with their assets relatively intact than, well, have all their assets destroyed and be ruled by the Chinese as poppers.

When your outnumbered 50-1, and about a 3rd of your population wants closer political relations, and about half seem to want closer economic relations, and may be draggable along for economic concerns, well, 50-1 odds and maybe half the population not really being up for it, if not outright 5th column, does not bode well.

 

[Vaermina]

They are doing random house searches. THey probably know all the places one can hide them, as they did it themselves.

Let's ask the US military how well that worked out for them...

 

[The One Char]

"the powerful do what they will, the weak suffer what they must".

While I don't support putting nukes on Taiwan, I also don't really support going to war with China over Taiwan either. Taiwan, by itself, looses.

As to the Taiwanese themselves, well, collectively they are the weak vs the strong here, the big question being just how weak they actually are. Which comes down to how much resistance they are actually willing to give.

This weakness, on top the sense of inevitability the Chinese have been purposefully cultivating since the 70s, with American support, makes me doubt how strongly they would really resist, especially if it was clear we were not willing to go to the mat for them, which the refusal to station Nukes and almost all our actions since the 70s suggest we will not, probably means the number of Taiwanese willing to throw away their life in a pointless display of resistance is probably fairly small.

As to what the Taiwanese think themselves, to whatever degree they practically have any say in this matter, pro - china support is the minority, but a fairly substantial one:

In Taiwan, Views of Mainland China Mostly Negative

There is widespread support in Taiwan for increased economic and political ties with the U.S. While many are wary of stronger political ties with mainland China, about half would favor stronger economic relations.

www.pewresearch.org

There's a lot more graphs in there, but most of them show an about 35% general positive feeling to china. If even 1% of the 35% who support closer political relationship with China would be active and enthusiastic collaborators with the takeover, were talking about 35,000 active collaborators in Taiwan. And there's already some signs the current business elite would much rather transition to being regulated by china with their assets relatively intact than, well, have all their assets destroyed and be ruled by the Chinese as poppers.

When your outnumbered 50-1, and about a 3rd of your population wants closer political relations, and about half seem to want closer economic relations, and may be draggable along for economic concerns, well, 50-1 odds and maybe half the population not really being up for it, if not outright 5th column, does not bode well.

I think @Zachowon can explain it better than I can. he's explained this repeatedly and at length.

 

[Arch Dornan]

Instant propoganda folks.

 

[strunkenwhite]

@Random Username I don't understand the point being made.

 

[Captain X]

Honestly it looks like he's biting his tongue in lieu of snapping at the guy.

 

[Arch Dornan]

@Random Username I don't understand the point being made.

Biden looks weak so everyone's using it to show he's weak.

 

[Bacle]

Honestly it looks like he's biting his tongue in lieu of snapping at the guy.

Biden looks weak so everyone's using it to show he's weak.

No, that is not biting his tongue.

That look, combined with the gripping of the binder, and his age/possible condition...that is a frail, nearly senile, old man trying not to cry or faint in public as someone he supposedly trusts grills him in a way that cannot be ignored.

His wife is a doctor, and is probably the one really in charge of both his agenda, schedule, and health regime. Who know's what cocktail they have to hit him with to keep him functional enough to even look this good.

He's an awake and semi-aware Woodrow Wilson, mixed with Jimmy Carter, while having actually witnessed the later's dumbassery and the fall of Saigon. So when those comparisons came out he knew he'd screwed the pooch, and man...I actually legit feel kinda sorry for Kamala after this, particularly with her actually visiting Saigon as it happened. She probably assumed Biden was actually listening to the military on this shit, given she's been focus on Haiti and their huge earthquake damage (which everyone forgot about, again).

I've dealt with enough stubborn, prideful seniors to get that some of what we saw with Biden is simply his health/mental state was finally catching up with him in a way the press would not provide cover for, and possibly genuine grief over Beau, finally breaking through the facade built up around him.

I think Biden is aware somewhat aware of how horrible this looks, his own mistakes and responsibility, and he might even have genuine grief left over from supposedly loosing Beau to cancer (unless some of the more unsavory rumors are around how Beau really died are true; the he's a good actor). he's got just enough left of his mental facilitates to realize how utterly fucked he is, how bad his decline has become, and how many people are no longer willing to humor the lies, even among the media.

 

[Arch Dornan]

I actually legit feel kinda sorry for Kamala after this, particularly with her actually visiting Saigon as it happened.

She was trolled into laying flowers for a monument to the Vietnamese that shot down John McCain. Her daughter didn't like that. Lol.

I think Biden is aware somewhat aware of how horrible this looks, his own mistakes and responsibility, and he might even have genuine grief left over from supposedly loosing Beau to cancer (unless some of the more unsavory rumors are around how Beau really died are true; the he's a good actor). he's got just enough left of his mental facilitates to realize how utterly fucked he is, how bad his decline has become, and how many people are no longer willing to humor the lies, even among the media.

The game of politics is ruthless and when weakness is shown no pity is given.

 

[Bacle]

She was trolled into laying flowers for a monument to the Vietnamese that shot down John McCain. Her daughter didn't like that. Lol.

The game of politics is ruthless and when weakness is shown no pity is given.

Meh, these days I wish McCain hadn't made it out of the plane.

Might have save the US a bunch of grief if he wasn't there to impede Trump.

 

[Arch Dornan]

Meh, these days I wish McCain hadn't made it out of the plane.

Might have save the US a bunch of grief if he wasn't there to impede Trump.

That's the way the world is. Mysterious as it is when all the good people are missing when you need them the most when everything is gone to shit.

 

[Bear Ribs]

This has not been the official American stance for 50 years. Which comes to the original question, are we going to throw away 50 years of promises and honor to China? Mainland China is the one we've been making promises to since the 70s, not Taiwan.

Its my sense the Mainland plans to take back Taiwan at some point, the US's official policy since the 70s has been China takes back Taiwan at some point, the businesses in Taiwan from what I've heard have already made their deals for how they'll be integrated into the Chinese system, the Taiwanese government has aquesed to eventual conquest through perpetual draw down of the scale of the military.

No one of any real power or influence seems to have any real plan or interest in Taiwan not being integrated into China outside some, well, powerless westerners. Most likely I think is Taiwan goes like Hong Kong.

I think this is substantially correct, however a bit out of date. Things were headed as you say up until China went and starting breaking heads and promises alike in Hong Kong. Since that debacle, Taiwan's stance towards rejoining China cooled off considerably.

 

[Jormungandr]

I think this is substantially correct, however a bit out of date. Things were headed as you say up until China went and starting breaking heads and promises alike in Hong Kong. Since that debacle, Taiwan's stance towards rejoining China cooled off considerably.

Yup. People in Taiwan got a stark reminder. IIRC the general attitude towards China right now is one of disgust, not reconciliation.

 

[sillygoose]

His wife is a doctor, and is probably the one really in charge of both his agenda, schedule, and health regime.

Doctor of education, not a MD

 

[Sailor.X]

This has not been the official American stance for 50 years. Which comes to the original question, are we going to throw away 50 years of promises and honor to China? Mainland China is the one we've been making promises to since the 70s, not Taiwan.

Its my sense the Mainland plans to take back Taiwan at some point, the US's official policy since the 70s has been China takes back Taiwan at some point, the businesses in Taiwan from what I've heard have already made their deals for how they'll be integrated into the Chinese system, the Taiwanese government has aquesed to eventual conquest through perpetual draw down of the scale of the military.

No one of any real power or influence seems to have any real plan or interest in Taiwan not being integrated into China outside some, well, powerless westerners. Most likely I think is Taiwan goes like Hong Kong.

Dude I like you for sure honestly I do. But that is the dumbest thing I have ever seen come from you. We owe the CCP nothing. They are a communist country that routinely cyber attacks us and tries to steal our intellectual properties. They are our enemy nothing more nothing less.

 

[JagerIV]

Dude I like you for sure honestly I do. But that is the dumbest thing I have ever seen come from you. We owe the CCP nothing. They are a communist country that routinely cyber attacks us and tries to steal our intellectual properties. They are our enemy nothing more nothing less.

So, when Nixon helped to give Communist China the UN seat for China rather than the Taiwanese, was that to uphold promises to Taiwan, or to Communist China? I understand what your saying, but if were being up an argument about honor and promises, basically all of those honor and promises the US as a State has actually made for more or less all our lifetimes is a promise that Taiwan is legitimate Chinese soil.

Zachowon's statements back up this belief: his comparison of putting nukes on Taiwan being equivalent to placing nukes on Puerto Rico reinforces the idea that the current thinking, and basically all agreements made, that Tiawan is the property of Communist China.

Most of the "honor and promises" side of the argument falls on the side of honoring and upholding our promises to Communist China to respect their sovereignty over Taiwan. Pulling out of that and securing Taiwanese independence mostly falls on the side of breaking 50 years of promises.

On might argue that breaking those promises is the legitimate course of actions, either on moral grounds, such as China not upholding its end of those promises, or practical grounds of those promises are too costly to respect or were made by people who cannot legitimately bind us.

Meanwhile, the weight of our promises to Tiawan are fairly limited. From a summary of the relavant parts of the Tiawan Relations Act, 1979.

Here, the relevant legal document is the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA). The legislation was enacted by Congress in 1979 following the U.S. decision to cut ties with Taiwan, abrogate the U.S.-Republic of China (Taiwan) Mutual Defense Treaty, and establish relations with China. The TRA is frequently cited by U.S. policymakers as the legal framework governing Taiwan policy actions. In reality, although the TRA has practical importance for civil and commercial relations with Taiwan, it does not strictly bind U.S. policymakers with respect to US-China-Taiwan relations.

TRA Sections 2 and 3 contain the key provisions with respect to military defense of Taiwan. Section 2 declares as a matter of U.S. policy that the U.S. expects the “future of Taiwan will be determined by peaceful means,” that “any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means, including by boycotts or embargoes, [is] a threat to the peace and security of the Western Pacific area”, and “to maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or the social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan.”

Section 3 implements this policy by requiring that the U.S. government “make available to Taiwan such defense articles and defense services in such quantity as may be necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capability.” It further requires the President “to inform the Congress promptly of any threat to the security or the social or economic system of the people on Taiwan and any danger to the interests of the United States arising therefrom.” Finally, the TRA requires the “President and the Congress shall determine, in accordance with constitutional processes, appropriate action by the United States in response to any such danger.”

https://www.pewresearch.org/global/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/05/PG_2020.05.12_Taiwan_0-04.png

So, while it states that the US would consider military action taken against Taiwan a "threat to peace and security", which is something of a duh statement, the requirements counter to it is mostly to allow arm sales to Taiwan, and then mostly just requires the President to consider appropriate response". These leaves the US open to do a whole lot, or nothing.

If however we are not willing to deploy Tac nukes, or really any military to Tiawan, during peace time when such would be easiest, my suspicion is our inclination is going to be to do nothing when doing something has become a 100x harder.

Now, this doesn't necesarily hold. Hitler for example made such a major miscalculation, figuring that if the British didn't do anything when he reocuppied the Rhineland or Chechosovakia when stopping him would be easy, they wouldn't do anything when he invaded Poland and stopping him would be a 100x harder.

However, the immediate aftermath of that also showed that even though they were willing to declare war, the apatite to do anything was still very, very low. After declaring war, the Allies mostly sat on their hands for 8 months. Belgium outright refused to get involved in the war, which was one of the things that contributed to the German offensive being such a disaster for the allies when war did happen because the Belgiums desparately trying to hold onto being neutral meant the Allies also had to try and rush into Belgium to try and meet the germans, causing a whole bunch of confusion.

I fear we might be more on that side, not really willing do much until after China conquers Tiawan. I think the point where, if we want to sucessfully defend Tiawan, the time to start moving troops and material onto the Island is before the Chinese are siezing the main harbors.