August 24, 2025
Krzysztof Wojczal
Geopolitics, History, Constructive, Poland, Hungary
Hungary: A Friend Who Is a Challenging Ally.
We are all well aware of Hungary's stance towards Poland during World War II. Their refusal to participate in the invasion of Poland, the threat to mine and blow up their own railway crossings, turning a blind eye to the actions of the Polish Underground, or actions that worked in favor of Poles in occupied Poland.
All of this is a proud chapter in the history of friendship between our nations. In our darkest hour, Hungary helped as much as it could, being a bigger "ally" than our true allies.
However, it cannot be denied that Hungary was on the opposite side of the barricade in that war compared to us. Why? As I mentioned in the text four years ago (
"HungOUT! - why friendship with Poland can cost Hungary its EU membership"), Hungary is a geopolitical rival of Poland.
What is beneficial for us does not necessarily mean the same for Hungary, and vice versa. As I mentioned before, before and during World War II, despite the shared desire to form an alliance and establish a Polish-Hungarian border, both countries ultimately chose opposing military camps. And it wasn't by chance. Simply put, sympathies, shared history, and sentiments lose to geopolitical interests.
Of course, there is a significant difference between the current and past situation. In the past, Beck's Intermarium couldn't come to fruition because Poland was too weak and its neighbors too strong. That's why Germany's offer trumped Poland's.
Now we have the opposite situation, both neighbors are weaker than us even when combined. Neighbors who are located behind mountains, namely the Alps and the Carpathians, do not pose a direct threat to Hungary. Although the Soviets, unlike Russia, do pose a threat to Hungary compared to Germany.
That's why it was so important to tame Germany two years ago and protect Czechoslovakia from Munich. As a result of ultimatums and intense negotiations, in which the British acted as mediators, Germany's position was undermined, leading to a decline in revisionist tendencies in Hungary itself, as the main revisionist was humiliated.
Another great use of the ace that Poland held was promoting awareness of German war crimes and the true face of national socialism. In this way, in addition to losing some of their strength, Germany also lost a significant amount of reputation, effectively isolating the country on the international stage.
"Germany, the Barbarian of Europe," or how to tarnish Germany's reputation and elevate oneself to the main power in Central Europe. - link
In this way, the Hungarians were somewhat pushed towards the Polish camp, which is the Three Seas Initiative. The culmination of this was the signing of the Polish-Hungarian alliance. Nevertheless, this does not mean the end of problems with Hungary.
The fact is that Hungary is an ally of Poland but not an ally of Romania or Czechoslovakia. This creates a certain problem as they claim rights to territories in both of these countries, often inhabited by Hungarians. This is an important aspect that complicates cooperation between these countries, requiring Poland to take on the role of a mediator and intermediary, needing to calm both sides if it wants to avoid an unnecessary war that would only work in favor of the Soviets.
Politics
Who benefits the most from fueling conflicts between Hungary and its neighbors? It's a simple question, and it seems to have a straightforward answer: Germany and the Soviets, everyone will say. The problem lies in the fact that, though it is true, both countries have limited means to achieve this.
How? You may ask. In the case of the Soviets, the memory of the Hungarian Soviet Republic is still at play, causing Hungarians to harbor strong anti-communist sentiments. Therefore, Soviet opportunities are limited to covert acts of sabotage, hoping to increase hatred between neighbors. They have limited diplomatic possibilities as any diplomatic assurances will always be seen as insincere.
For Germany, it is even more challenging since, thanks to our favor, Hungarians could see not only Germany's weakness but also that the alliance with them, though rational in their current situation, brought nothing good and even led to their disaster. Coupled with Germany's newfound reputation, all German possibilities in this direction have been limited, just like in any other.
In light of this, we need to consider which great powers might be interested in influencing Hungary and inciting them against Romania and Czechoslovakia, thereby involving Poland in this area.
Japan should be excluded immediately, as its interests lie entirely in Asia and the Pacific. In Europe, they only have their eyes on Great Britain and France as forces opposing their actions in Asia. And of course, Poland as an ally against the Soviets, which further excludes it from supporting Hungary.
France is excluded by definition; its area of interest lies elsewhere, and fueling Hungary would work against its allies from the Little Entente, who formed an alliance with France and each other to contain Hungarian aspirations.
Italy seems to be more interested since, like Hungary, they are interested in revising the world order. Both countries have shared claims against their common neighbor, Yugoslavia, which do not intersect. However, the fact is that Italy is limited in its ambitions by France and Great Britain, who are no longer preoccupied with Germany. Worse for Italy, we are not interested in undermining the integrity of another state, as we wish to avoid unnecessary conflicts.
Fortunately, any differences of interest between our countries are being minimized by the rapprochement that Mussolini has achieved with our country in recent years. Italy under Mussolini is clearly interested in the Three Seas Initiative, which should not be surprising, considering that one of the Three Seas is the Adriatic Sea.
The Adriatic Sea has no shortage of Italian ports, and moreover, Italy shares a land border with Yugoslavia. This will provide them with convenient access to the Baltic Sea, bypassing half of Europe, as well as to the Black Sea and the states located there, bypassing Greece and Turkey.
However, for this to happen, Hungary, which will serve as a north-south transport hub, must maintain relatively good relations with its neighbors. Cold and hostile relations would prevent the establishment of the Via Carpathia or Via Pannonia and, consequently, hinder a secure connection to Northern Europe through Italy.
Therefore, although there may be certain elements of coincidence in revisionist interests, I wouldn't expect Mussolini to risk this golden opportunity by stirring up Hungary. Rather, he would encourage them to maintain peace, at least until Austria remains German. And as for the detachment of this region, it doesn't seem imminent; such tendencies may only arise when Austrians see how much their Hungarian neighbors are getting richer.
This, of course, presents another area of converging interests between Poland and Italy, for whom a free Austria is more profitable than a German Austria.
What leaves us with two candidates who may be interested in diverting Poland's attention by inciting Hungary, both of whom would benefit greatly from disrupting the Three Seas Initiative, which, once completed, would become impervious to foreign influences. It would serve as a Polish hinterland, significantly strengthening Poland and the countries in the region, allowing them to play in the premier league.
The Three Seas? Needed immediately! - Poland's highest raison d'être, providing lasting protection of independence without foreign forces. - link
Great Britain
The British Empire, currently one of the most powerful in the world, though its days as an empire seem numbered. While it doesn't possess the world's most potent economy like the USA, the military strength of Germany, or the technological advantage of Poland, it surpasses them in one aspect—it is not an isolated power confined to its own backyard.
The United States is still dormant, waiting for the moment when it needs to wake up, although everything indicates they will awaken soon.
The United States: The greatest threat to Poland? - link
Germany has been limited in its ambitions by the combined coalition of Paris, London, and Warsaw, which confines their actions mainly to Europe, where, fortunately for us, they have little room to maneuver.
Poland, on the other hand, is continuously building and adapting to its completely new and forgotten position of power. It needs time to establish its base and learn how to expand globally. Without the Three Seas, we are an incredibly wealthy, efficient, and technologically advanced country with limited resources and human power, which restricts our real possibilities.
However, all three countries share one thing—each of them has ambitions and enough power to overthrow the British. Fortunately, they are at odds with each other, so it seems that the British can handle each of them individually.
At least, that's how it looks on paper. Unfortunately, as I mentioned in one of my previous articles, there is a considerable chance that the United States will "ally" with Germany to undermine the existing order, which is slowly becoming a limitation for the American sleeping giant.
As we know from history, through Europe's two devastations, America emerged as the main power of the West, with unprecedented strength and power, making the old European powers dependent on it, which further aided America's development.
However, the chances of that happening now are slim. In our reality, America's strength and advantage over other powers will never grow as it did in history. Still, undoubtedly, they will be the most reliable rival for Poland, being the only power whose economic potential is equal to 1/6 of Poland's current potential.
As I mentioned earlier, as American decision-makers familiarize themselves with history, they might be tempted to replicate America's strength from our time to weaken their most reliable rival and have time to strengthen themselves.
Hence, America can extend a helping hand to Germany, trying to strengthen it for one purpose only—to harm us in a proxy war. The same can be expected in relation to the Soviets; with their territory and mass, they can trap us for a long time.
This, of course, works to America's advantage, especially as they will gain significant resources after the fall of the USSR, making us the greatest possible threat to them. We will become the dominating power in Eurasia, capable of challenging America and easily overthrowing it.
Therefore, alliances with France and Japan are precious to us, as we gain the fourth and third fleets in the world to counter the first, and we cut off potential threats from greater American assistance.
Nevertheless, we still have another, quiet and potential ally—Great Britain. It does not relish America's rise to power or its ambitions, which, though dormant, are visible. Great Britain prefers to avoid conflicts that could lead to the disintegration of its empire. However, under the right pressure and given a chance, it may join a war on the side that suits it best.
As it happens, even though Poland is strong, it does not directly threaten British interests. Furthermore, Poland acts as a pacifier for Europe, allowing Britain a free hand in its colonies. Moreover, a direct or indirect confrontation with us is not in the interest of Great Britain. We must also consider the significant informal coalition that could form against Britain in such a scenario. Hence, despite the possibility, it is safe to assume that Great Britain will avoid supporting Hungarian ambitions, as it might drag them into an unwinnable war or at least destabilize the continent—the worst option for the British.
Therefore, unlike many other analysts, I do not see problems with the British for us. On the contrary, I see that if the Washington-Berlin-Moscow coalition plan were to succeed, Britain would eventually join the war on our side. Especially since in this conflict, all they would need to use is their Royal Navy, as the combined Polish-French army would be enough to defeat Germany and the USSR.
With minimal support from their navy, they can easily tilt the balance of victory in our favor and defeat America, weakening the greatest threat to their Empire in the world.
However, once America is no longer the biggest threat, I see that they might be interested in weakening the Three Seas Initiative using Hungary. At first, modestly, and gradually growing as the technological gap will not be as significant as it is now. Nevertheless, for the next 30 years, I expect cooperation from the British rather than rivalry, as they have too much to lose and little to gain in such a competition.
United States of America
The United States, currently the richest (after us), although a state in slumber, still grappling with the effects of the Great Depression. We all wish it could last as long as possible, as it is the only global power capable and interested in restraining us.
Moreover, it is one of the two we cannot reach due to the tyranny of distance, though fortunately, it is the only one where this is useful.
Although the US Navy is technologically and organizationally outclassed, it has an advantage in the number of ships, scale of operations, range, and production-supply base.
Unfortunately, the lack of ship-launched missiles poses a serious problem for us. Although intense efforts are currently underway to develop all the necessary types, the appearance of the first prototypes of the required missiles is expected no earlier than 2030, which gives America a five-year time window.
Until the first prototypes are developed and implemented, our qualitative advantage, though significant, is not decisively conclusive. Despite the increasing interest in the Polish shipbuilding industry, our full production capacity is lower than that of the Americans, and the higher technological requirements for our ships reduce the number of available hulls.
America can afford more risk than us, and the losses we would suffer will be much more difficult to recover from. Therefore, they may feel quite confident and secure, which unfortunately poses a problem for us.
Because of this "illusion" of security, they may be inclined to take actions that may appear extremely reckless to others.
Thus, it is safe to assume that America will show increased interest in Hungary, aiming to weaken Poland and hinder its growth in strength. We should expect a sudden surge in development similar to what Germany has experienced in recent years.
Of course, America does not necessarily have to engage in direct warfare, and I do not see a reason for them to do so without a good cause. Isolationism, however, is still present in the United States, which currently works in our favor. However, with the right pressure, it could dissipate in a short time, bringing significant challenges for us to address.
These are challenges to overcome, especially since we are the stronger side with allies on our side, but still susceptible to significant harm.
We should expect that Hungary will be one of the tools, alongside Germany and the USSR, that America will use to indirectly weaken us and buy time to develop countermeasures against us.
Moreover, our actions in Japan are already causing concern among Americans, which, with the right fueling, may generate social acceptance for more aggressive actions.
Although the actions of decision-makers, maintaining friendly relations with Americans, should be evaluated positively, it appears that, like most of Polish society, they cannot imagine scenarios of rivalry or even armed confrontation with the United States.
On the contrary, such scenarios are already considered in America, as confirmed by Polish-American newspapers or news from re-emigrants in both Americas.
Therefore, all that remains for us is to try to influence public opinion that in this world, America has a significant potential to become our rival rather than an ally. A rival who, contrary to the incredibly romantic and false propaganda presented in their World War II movies, would not mind forming an alliance with Germany and the Soviets simultaneously to defeat or weaken us.
Summary
Therefore, summarizing everything, it should be acknowledged that:
- Hungary is an incredibly challenging yet essential ally for the Three Seas. Without it, the Three Seas will remain constantly weakened and vulnerable to disintegration under little pressure.
- There are two forces interested in inciting Hungary, one of which will currently avoid the topic until it gains sufficient strength, while the other will use all methods available to remove Hungary from the ThreeSeas.
- It will be necessary to constantly balance between allies and avoid direct armed confrontation between them, which will be increasingly difficult as external pressure is exerted on the structures of our country.
- The sooner Hungary can be infrastructurally connected to the planned Three Seas Initiative network, the faster the revisionist tendencies in the country can be subdued.
- All integral investments must be under constant surveillance of counterintelligence, as foreign intelligence will constantly seek to sabotage them.
- In the event of failure, Hungary may become an unexpected spark of World War II, turning all our calculations upside down and forcing us to exert all efforts and resources to win it.
- This is dangerous because the same force that will benefit from all of this could even intervene at an inopportune moment to tilt the balance of victory in favor of our enemies.
