Batrix2070
RON/PLC was a wonderful country.
September 1, 1939
Third Polish Republic
Warsaw
General Staff of the Polish Army
September 1, Anno Domini 1939, a memorable day. On this day, one of the most effective war machines in human history set in motion against Poland. Poor Poland, rising from over a century of peripheral status, was unable to stop the second-largest economy in the world, completely dedicated to insane armament.
It can be argued whether Poland could have resisted the Germans for a longer or shorter period. Nevertheless, the fact remains that with what Poland had at that time, one month of resistance was a remarkable achievement. Anything more astonishing would have required stubborn trench warfare and persistent holding of territory, which, considering the overall weakness of the Polish Army's firepower, would have been incredibly bloody and devastating for Poland and the Polish people.
Marshal Edward Rydz-Śmigły ultimately arrived at these conclusions after studying many thousands of surviving orders, reports, syntheses, and other materials from September 1939 and beyond. Of course, much lay ahead of him, but even now he could consider himself an expert on the subject, all the more so because, unlike many amateur historians, he was also a military man and had a much better insight into what the Army actually looked like back then.
Nevertheless, this was his side job, which he did in his free time, preferring to see for himself what truly happened on that day rather than listen to the "wiser" ones.
His normal work, apart from taking refresher courses, primarily involved instilling the old pre-communist esprit de corps of the Polish Army among the troops, assisting in the organization of offensive plans against the Soviets, and serving as General Andrzejczak's aide in various matters, mainly involving kicking someone in the groin.
For example, he recently managed to push through the exchange of ceremonial and service uniforms for those that harken back to the traditions of the Polish Army. He argued that the new design was a departure from the communist puppet army, and such seemingly trivial details could significantly change a person's attitude when wearing a uniform and remind them of the continuity of military traditions.
Another change was the replacement of berets with peaked caps (rogatywka), although the beret remained an optional choice. Now, the peaked cap was to be the normal headgear worn in the field, with exceptions for armored and special forces.
This change did not need to be popularized among the soldiers; in fact, many of them preferred a regular cap like the WOT wear, rather than a beret. The problem lay elsewhere, specifically in the Military Economic Units and their resistance to any changes.
In general, Rydz quickly realized how much of the logistics system of the Polish Army was rigid and resistant to any changes. The persistence in ordering outdated equipment despite the availability of new and better options, making it difficult to issue equipment for fear of it getting damaged, as if allowing it to sit in warehouses was a better solution, and many other obstacles.
Since Rydz had de facto availability, he quickly assumed the unofficial role of kicking the Military Economic Units into action and forcing them to work. He collaborated with the Chief of the Armament Agency, General Artur Kupeć, to adapt the Ministry of National Defense and the Army to the new reality and break through the concrete.
Speaking very generally, Rydz knew better than anyone in the Ministry of National Defense how to approach the domestic arms industry. For him, it was quite natural to order the necessary equipment domestically before looking abroad.
The only problem for Rydz was the fact that he had limited purchasing capabilities, so he couldn't fully utilize the industry's potential. This led to absurd situations where essential equipment for the Army, despite significant domestic production capacity, was not being ordered for a long time.
But that is not the case here. The Third Polish Republic is much wealthier than the Second Polish Republic. In fact, it is currently the richest country in the world. This year, Poland has spent about $17 billion* more on its armaments than Germany has in the last four years combined!
To achieve that, Germany had to completely reorient itself towards armaments, while Poland simply snapped its fingers and didn't even notice. It's a completely different scale. Rydz could only laugh at the military budget from his time.
To understand the magnitude of the difference, in 2023, Poland spent 133 billion Polish złoty on the military, which, in old złoty, is worth 13.3 billion. For simplicity, the official exchange rate from old złoty to new złoty is 1:10.
Meanwhile, Rydz vividly remembered that the projected expenses for 1939 were supposed to amount to 1.19 billion old złoty, which is over 11.9 billion new złoty.
The difference is eleven times greater! What's worse, more than half of that 1.19 billion old złoty had to be deducted for vegetative expenses.** In the future Poland, this is a much better result, with only 40% being vegetative expenses.
More importantly, the future budget was expected to be even larger. Morawiecki practically cried when he saw the new demand. Of course, Poland could afford such financing, especially since the nation understood and knew well the current situation.
They were actually much more aware than Rydz's compatriots, for whom the information about what happened during the war is unimaginable. Even he had a hard time believing it himself, despite photographs, plaques, or documents showing the scale of German and Soviet cruelty and bestiality in black and white.
Nevertheless, this awareness of what happened was the reason why support for increased funding grew to such an extent that it surpassed all bounds of reason. Massive armament and army expansion were actually what the Poles expected and demanded from the state and the government.
No one trusted either the Third Reich or the USSR. The scenario of cooperation between these two states was the default for an average Pole, even if there was no such thing, or at least Rydz didn't know about it. And he already knew quite a lot. Nonetheless, here he agrees with each of the future Poles and assumes that even if they don't have any agreement, Hitler or Stalin will still seize the opportunity.
Because everything indicated that the Painter had finally become scared and stopped being aggressive. At least for now.
As for Stalin... that was a strange situation. He was aggressive, yet he always concealed it. After the Red Army suffered a defeat in Mongolia at the hands of the Japanese with Polish assistance, he calmed down.
The constant testing of boundaries in the Borderlands disappeared in one fell swoop. The same happened on all other borders where countries tried to test Polish security guarantees after entering alliances with Poland.
The Soviets even shifted to a defensive stance, which was particularly evident in their propaganda, which changed its emphasis and focused on defense to an unprecedented degree. What's more, their Minister of Foreign Affairs, Maxim Litvinov, is expected to arrive from Moscow.
From what the Prezes suspected, Litvinov was supposed to propose the continuation of the existing treaties on much better terms for Poland. He believed that Stalin had decided to buy himself some time, although both of them knew well that it was all a farce.
Rydz agreed with this thinking. War with the Soviets is inevitable, as certain as "amen" in a prayer. The only question is when. Because whether or not, it is unquestionable that this nightmare in the East needs to be ended and the threat to Poland needs to be eliminated.
For this reason, plans regarding the Soviets had a higher priority than those concerning Germany. The entire general staff at the Headquarters helped create variations of the operational plan 1610.
The number is not random; it signifies the date of entering Moscow and keeping it under Polish control for the next two years. They wanted to repeat that success, though without the grim ending.
The plan itself, in its basic structure, did not change much and was divided into three stages.
The first stage involved launching three strong offensives: one towards the Smolensk Gate to seize Belarus up to Vitebsk, the second towards Kyiv, and the third from Romania towards Zaporizhia to control the entire right-bank Ukraine.
During this time, the Baltic States and Finland were to engage the Red Army in combat, waiting for the second stage.
In the territories liberated from the Soviets, the intention was to establish and create dependent but independent states of Belarus and Ukraine. The Government of the Belarusian People's Republic was invited to Poland to establish in advance all the rules of cooperation. In case of problems, the remnants of the United Transitional Cabinet of the future Belarus were planned to be used as a government.
In the case of Ukraine, the matter was not as straightforward. The regression in time consumed the entire government of the Ukrainian People's Republic, leaving only remnants. Therefore, it was necessary to build a completely new government based on future Ukrainians.
Vasyl Zvarych, the former Ambassador of Ukraine to Poland, became the new President, a man who, to put it mildly, still cannot get used to the new situation. The situation in which Poland dictates the terms from A to Z amused Rydz, with his arrogance and self-importance.
For this reason, the Prezes asked Rydz to put his foot down and show Zvarych his place. He did it without a problem, and from that moment on, Zvarych became calmer and understood his position.
The Marshal simply made it clear to him that now the existence of Ukraine depends on Poland's goodwill. And if the ex-ambassador wants to personally lead Ukraine to a better world and become a revered hero, he must be obedient.
Otherwise, he will find himself in Bereza with anyone who is smart and wants to build Ukraine into a country that is far away and cannot help them, and most likely they will suffer greatly when they do. Meanwhile, Poland will achieve its goals by finding someone with less moral backbone but sufficient to govern Ukraine.
Zvarych replied that he is not that foolish because Germany is internationally isolated due to future news, and aligning with them would be suicide for Ukraine. What's more, the only way they could defeat Poland is by allying with the Soviets, but they have no interest in a free Ukraine.
Italy is focused elsewhere, on Africa and the Mediterranean Sea. Regarding Central and Eastern Europe, they look to Poland as the stronger ally, so they will not act against it. If they support Ukraine, it will only be in a way that supports Poland.
France sees Poland as a strategic ally, and its area of interest in Eastern Europe ends with balancing Germany. Supporting Ukraine weakens the Eastern alliance, so they will avoid it unless it helps Poland and weakens the Communists.
Great Britain lacks the necessary power projection and interest to engage in Eastern Europe. Actually, their policy is too preoccupied with the Far East and Africa to worry about Europe. Moreover, even if they became hostile to Poland and allied with Ukraine, they have no means to help because Poland has natural allies in the form of France and Italy, so the geographic barrier is even greater than usual.
The United States is sleeping, and when they do pay attention, it's to East Asia. Europe is entirely outside their sphere of interest. Only if Japan goes to war with them and involves Poland will they become interested in supporting Ukraine as a way to weaken Poland. However, like Great Britain, they face a significant geographic barrier to accomplish that.
Japan has no interest here, especially since it would be an interference in Poland's sphere, and they have a common enemy in the Soviets.
The Soviets, on the other hand, remain the common enemy of Poland and Ukraine, just as the Russians or whatever replaces Russia will be. Therefore, there is no possibility of an agreement.
In summary, as Zvarych concluded, out of the seven remaining major powers that could support the Ukrainian cause, three will choose Poland and see it as an ally. One will not help them under any circumstances and is a common enemy.
One is immersed in isolationism and can only achieve something if a serious event occurs, but even that does not guarantee success. The tremendous production potential is not such a strong advantage against Poland, whose industry is much more efficient.
One is scattered on multiple fronts, has natural adversaries against them who will immediately side with Poland, and has a natural geographic barrier, making any help for Ukraine a fiction.
Therefore, Zvarych said that even if he wanted to, he would not seek an ally elsewhere; the divide is simply too significant. Hence his determination to negotiate the best possible conditions for Ukraine. This was surprising to Rydz, seeing that Zvarych was much more reasonable than any other Ukrainian he had encountered, despite his arrogance and self-importance.
Nevertheless, the task was completed, and from that moment on, Zvarych became more compliant. For example, he apologized on behalf of Ukraine for the UPA crimes in Volhynia and so on. Rydz was indifferent to it; while the crime was cruel, the stubbornness of many future Poles on this matter was politically idiotic. What mattered were the consequences, not words, especially since it was enough to ensure that it would not happen again.
Returning to the plan, the first stage was supposed to end with the control and defense along the Dvina and Dnieper rivers. As soon as this was achieved, the second stage was to begin, consisting of two phases. The most essential units for the breakthrough were to be transferred to Estonia and Finland.
The first phase involved launching another double strike to converge in Leningrad. The goal was to gain control over the entire access to the Baltic Sea and northwestern Russia, specifically the territories of the former Novgorod Republic. A new government of White Russia was to be established there in its former capital, Petersburg.
What kind of Russia would it be? It did not matter. The only thing that mattered was the dependence of that government on Poland. It was about finding people desperate enough to seize this unique opportunity to reclaim Russia.
The second phase involved an attack on the Soviet part of Karelia. The second stage was to end with the capture of the last useful seaport with access to the White Sea, which was Arkhangelsk.
In this way, if the alliance with Japan succeeded, the Soviets would be cut off from any possible foreign assistance. The Black Sea was to be a zone controlled by the Romanian fleet and, if possible, also by the Italian fleet.
The second stage was to end when the newly independent states were stable enough to form regular armed forces and a state apparatus. Poland was to be responsible for their equipment, planning to arm them in the style of Division C.
This way, they intended to gain additional divisions composed of people willing to fight for their liberation from the Soviets. The most challenging part would be with the Belarusians, as they had no army, while it would be easier with the Ukrainians, as there were no shortages of veterans from the Ukrainian-Russian War of 2022 healing in Polish military hospitals. If necessary, Ukrainian soldiers serving in the Polish Army would also be added.
The third stage had three phases, with the first one being the most difficult and demanding, a maritime and airborne assault on Transcaucasia. The goal was to liberate Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan from Soviet control and seize the oil fields near Baku from the Soviets. Without achieving this objective, the rest of the third stage would be much more challenging. Therefore, preparations had already begun.
The 7th Coastal Defense Brigade was carved out of the 12th Mechanized Division, and a completely new unit was to take its place. The 7th Brigade itself was placed under a completely new unit, the 7th Lusatian Landing Division, a new four-brigade division of the Polish Army.
The 7th Brigade was reconfigured to become a brigade of marine mechanized infantry. Moreover, an identical formation, the reconstituted 8th Coastal Defense Brigade, was to join it as an identical unit to the 7th.
To complete the picture, the 6th Airborne Brigade and the 25th Air Cavalry Brigade were to be added. They were supposed to be the main striking force in the first phase of the third stage, supplemented by Romanian and Czech forces, as well as liberation units composed of Georgians, Armenians, and Azerbaijanis.
The second stage was to commence when the 7th Division and supporting forces approached Baku. At that point, the Ukrainian and White Russian forces, together with the Polish Army, were to initiate their own offensive. The Ukrainians would move towards Rostov-on-Don and Stalingrad, ultimately meeting the forces from the first stage in the Kuban region.
Meanwhile, the White Russians were to advance towards Moscow, although their main objective would actually be Perm, aiming to subsequently join forces with the Ukrainian Army in the vicinity of Kazan. The second stage was to conclude when the White Russian and Ukrainian forces neared each other.
The third stage was set to begin as the second stage progressed, depending on the success of the previous stage. It would either be a mere formality or a forceful diversion. This stage was also the least complicated, involving a straightforward assault from the Smolensk Gate towards Moscow.
This stage would culminate in the fall of Moscow. By then, the war should only be a formality, assuming the plan proceeded as intended, which Rydz doubted. However, as can be observed, the entire plan relied on gaining allies and gradually cutting off the Soviets from resources while transitioning the Polish Army from a core force to a decisive force, leading the offensive but supplemented by divisions from other countries.
The plan itself aimed to avoid attrition warfare and protracted pushing of the Soviets from their positions. Cities such as Stalingrad and Rostov were planned to be cut off first before attempting to capture them. Only Leningrad was intended to be taken by storm from the very beginning.
Polish planners drew from the experiences of the Ukrainians in 2022/23, as well as from the Germans and their own. They wanted to stretch and tear apart the Soviets piece by piece, rather than rushing forward recklessly. This approach would undoubtedly make the war longer but less exhausting and costly.
Rydz had to admit that while it was a grand plan beyond his wildest dreams, he could clearly see its highly organic and gradual approach. It was not a brilliant maneuver like the one from the Wieprz, but he had no complaints. He was not the one making the decisions, nor would he bear the responsibility for them. He would only command a formation on the front, doing what he loved and excelled at the most.
Personally, he would like to lead the invasion of Transcaucasia, recognizing that it would require exceptional enthusiasm and skills. He could provide both, while also redeeming himself for September 1939, reminding everyone of the old Rydz from 1920, the defender of Vilnius and the conqueror of Dyneburg.
Regardless, the war would be exhausting, and the Soviets would likely not play along as they were expected to. That much Rydz could be certain of.
*Rydz means dollars from the 1930s. He calculated it for himself.
**For American readers, each of these amounts in new Polish złoty should be divided by four to get the equivalent in dollars (contemporary, of course). So, in dollars, it would be:
Poland 2023: $33,250,000,000
Poland 1939: $2,975,000,000
The difference is even more striking, isn't it? For clarification, I calculated this based on the exchange rate on June 14, 2023, when 1 dollar was worth 4.11 złoty. Different results may occur on other days.
Third Polish Republic
Warsaw
General Staff of the Polish Army
September 1, Anno Domini 1939, a memorable day. On this day, one of the most effective war machines in human history set in motion against Poland. Poor Poland, rising from over a century of peripheral status, was unable to stop the second-largest economy in the world, completely dedicated to insane armament.
It can be argued whether Poland could have resisted the Germans for a longer or shorter period. Nevertheless, the fact remains that with what Poland had at that time, one month of resistance was a remarkable achievement. Anything more astonishing would have required stubborn trench warfare and persistent holding of territory, which, considering the overall weakness of the Polish Army's firepower, would have been incredibly bloody and devastating for Poland and the Polish people.
Marshal Edward Rydz-Śmigły ultimately arrived at these conclusions after studying many thousands of surviving orders, reports, syntheses, and other materials from September 1939 and beyond. Of course, much lay ahead of him, but even now he could consider himself an expert on the subject, all the more so because, unlike many amateur historians, he was also a military man and had a much better insight into what the Army actually looked like back then.
Nevertheless, this was his side job, which he did in his free time, preferring to see for himself what truly happened on that day rather than listen to the "wiser" ones.
His normal work, apart from taking refresher courses, primarily involved instilling the old pre-communist esprit de corps of the Polish Army among the troops, assisting in the organization of offensive plans against the Soviets, and serving as General Andrzejczak's aide in various matters, mainly involving kicking someone in the groin.
For example, he recently managed to push through the exchange of ceremonial and service uniforms for those that harken back to the traditions of the Polish Army. He argued that the new design was a departure from the communist puppet army, and such seemingly trivial details could significantly change a person's attitude when wearing a uniform and remind them of the continuity of military traditions.
Another change was the replacement of berets with peaked caps (rogatywka), although the beret remained an optional choice. Now, the peaked cap was to be the normal headgear worn in the field, with exceptions for armored and special forces.
This change did not need to be popularized among the soldiers; in fact, many of them preferred a regular cap like the WOT wear, rather than a beret. The problem lay elsewhere, specifically in the Military Economic Units and their resistance to any changes.
In general, Rydz quickly realized how much of the logistics system of the Polish Army was rigid and resistant to any changes. The persistence in ordering outdated equipment despite the availability of new and better options, making it difficult to issue equipment for fear of it getting damaged, as if allowing it to sit in warehouses was a better solution, and many other obstacles.
Since Rydz had de facto availability, he quickly assumed the unofficial role of kicking the Military Economic Units into action and forcing them to work. He collaborated with the Chief of the Armament Agency, General Artur Kupeć, to adapt the Ministry of National Defense and the Army to the new reality and break through the concrete.
Speaking very generally, Rydz knew better than anyone in the Ministry of National Defense how to approach the domestic arms industry. For him, it was quite natural to order the necessary equipment domestically before looking abroad.
The only problem for Rydz was the fact that he had limited purchasing capabilities, so he couldn't fully utilize the industry's potential. This led to absurd situations where essential equipment for the Army, despite significant domestic production capacity, was not being ordered for a long time.
But that is not the case here. The Third Polish Republic is much wealthier than the Second Polish Republic. In fact, it is currently the richest country in the world. This year, Poland has spent about $17 billion* more on its armaments than Germany has in the last four years combined!
To achieve that, Germany had to completely reorient itself towards armaments, while Poland simply snapped its fingers and didn't even notice. It's a completely different scale. Rydz could only laugh at the military budget from his time.
To understand the magnitude of the difference, in 2023, Poland spent 133 billion Polish złoty on the military, which, in old złoty, is worth 13.3 billion. For simplicity, the official exchange rate from old złoty to new złoty is 1:10.
Meanwhile, Rydz vividly remembered that the projected expenses for 1939 were supposed to amount to 1.19 billion old złoty, which is over 11.9 billion new złoty.
The difference is eleven times greater! What's worse, more than half of that 1.19 billion old złoty had to be deducted for vegetative expenses.** In the future Poland, this is a much better result, with only 40% being vegetative expenses.
More importantly, the future budget was expected to be even larger. Morawiecki practically cried when he saw the new demand. Of course, Poland could afford such financing, especially since the nation understood and knew well the current situation.
They were actually much more aware than Rydz's compatriots, for whom the information about what happened during the war is unimaginable. Even he had a hard time believing it himself, despite photographs, plaques, or documents showing the scale of German and Soviet cruelty and bestiality in black and white.
Nevertheless, this awareness of what happened was the reason why support for increased funding grew to such an extent that it surpassed all bounds of reason. Massive armament and army expansion were actually what the Poles expected and demanded from the state and the government.
No one trusted either the Third Reich or the USSR. The scenario of cooperation between these two states was the default for an average Pole, even if there was no such thing, or at least Rydz didn't know about it. And he already knew quite a lot. Nonetheless, here he agrees with each of the future Poles and assumes that even if they don't have any agreement, Hitler or Stalin will still seize the opportunity.
Because everything indicated that the Painter had finally become scared and stopped being aggressive. At least for now.
As for Stalin... that was a strange situation. He was aggressive, yet he always concealed it. After the Red Army suffered a defeat in Mongolia at the hands of the Japanese with Polish assistance, he calmed down.
The constant testing of boundaries in the Borderlands disappeared in one fell swoop. The same happened on all other borders where countries tried to test Polish security guarantees after entering alliances with Poland.
The Soviets even shifted to a defensive stance, which was particularly evident in their propaganda, which changed its emphasis and focused on defense to an unprecedented degree. What's more, their Minister of Foreign Affairs, Maxim Litvinov, is expected to arrive from Moscow.
From what the Prezes suspected, Litvinov was supposed to propose the continuation of the existing treaties on much better terms for Poland. He believed that Stalin had decided to buy himself some time, although both of them knew well that it was all a farce.
Rydz agreed with this thinking. War with the Soviets is inevitable, as certain as "amen" in a prayer. The only question is when. Because whether or not, it is unquestionable that this nightmare in the East needs to be ended and the threat to Poland needs to be eliminated.
For this reason, plans regarding the Soviets had a higher priority than those concerning Germany. The entire general staff at the Headquarters helped create variations of the operational plan 1610.
The number is not random; it signifies the date of entering Moscow and keeping it under Polish control for the next two years. They wanted to repeat that success, though without the grim ending.
The plan itself, in its basic structure, did not change much and was divided into three stages.
The first stage involved launching three strong offensives: one towards the Smolensk Gate to seize Belarus up to Vitebsk, the second towards Kyiv, and the third from Romania towards Zaporizhia to control the entire right-bank Ukraine.
During this time, the Baltic States and Finland were to engage the Red Army in combat, waiting for the second stage.
In the territories liberated from the Soviets, the intention was to establish and create dependent but independent states of Belarus and Ukraine. The Government of the Belarusian People's Republic was invited to Poland to establish in advance all the rules of cooperation. In case of problems, the remnants of the United Transitional Cabinet of the future Belarus were planned to be used as a government.
In the case of Ukraine, the matter was not as straightforward. The regression in time consumed the entire government of the Ukrainian People's Republic, leaving only remnants. Therefore, it was necessary to build a completely new government based on future Ukrainians.
Vasyl Zvarych, the former Ambassador of Ukraine to Poland, became the new President, a man who, to put it mildly, still cannot get used to the new situation. The situation in which Poland dictates the terms from A to Z amused Rydz, with his arrogance and self-importance.
For this reason, the Prezes asked Rydz to put his foot down and show Zvarych his place. He did it without a problem, and from that moment on, Zvarych became calmer and understood his position.
The Marshal simply made it clear to him that now the existence of Ukraine depends on Poland's goodwill. And if the ex-ambassador wants to personally lead Ukraine to a better world and become a revered hero, he must be obedient.
Otherwise, he will find himself in Bereza with anyone who is smart and wants to build Ukraine into a country that is far away and cannot help them, and most likely they will suffer greatly when they do. Meanwhile, Poland will achieve its goals by finding someone with less moral backbone but sufficient to govern Ukraine.
Zvarych replied that he is not that foolish because Germany is internationally isolated due to future news, and aligning with them would be suicide for Ukraine. What's more, the only way they could defeat Poland is by allying with the Soviets, but they have no interest in a free Ukraine.
Italy is focused elsewhere, on Africa and the Mediterranean Sea. Regarding Central and Eastern Europe, they look to Poland as the stronger ally, so they will not act against it. If they support Ukraine, it will only be in a way that supports Poland.
France sees Poland as a strategic ally, and its area of interest in Eastern Europe ends with balancing Germany. Supporting Ukraine weakens the Eastern alliance, so they will avoid it unless it helps Poland and weakens the Communists.
Great Britain lacks the necessary power projection and interest to engage in Eastern Europe. Actually, their policy is too preoccupied with the Far East and Africa to worry about Europe. Moreover, even if they became hostile to Poland and allied with Ukraine, they have no means to help because Poland has natural allies in the form of France and Italy, so the geographic barrier is even greater than usual.
The United States is sleeping, and when they do pay attention, it's to East Asia. Europe is entirely outside their sphere of interest. Only if Japan goes to war with them and involves Poland will they become interested in supporting Ukraine as a way to weaken Poland. However, like Great Britain, they face a significant geographic barrier to accomplish that.
Japan has no interest here, especially since it would be an interference in Poland's sphere, and they have a common enemy in the Soviets.
The Soviets, on the other hand, remain the common enemy of Poland and Ukraine, just as the Russians or whatever replaces Russia will be. Therefore, there is no possibility of an agreement.
In summary, as Zvarych concluded, out of the seven remaining major powers that could support the Ukrainian cause, three will choose Poland and see it as an ally. One will not help them under any circumstances and is a common enemy.
One is immersed in isolationism and can only achieve something if a serious event occurs, but even that does not guarantee success. The tremendous production potential is not such a strong advantage against Poland, whose industry is much more efficient.
One is scattered on multiple fronts, has natural adversaries against them who will immediately side with Poland, and has a natural geographic barrier, making any help for Ukraine a fiction.
Therefore, Zvarych said that even if he wanted to, he would not seek an ally elsewhere; the divide is simply too significant. Hence his determination to negotiate the best possible conditions for Ukraine. This was surprising to Rydz, seeing that Zvarych was much more reasonable than any other Ukrainian he had encountered, despite his arrogance and self-importance.
Nevertheless, the task was completed, and from that moment on, Zvarych became more compliant. For example, he apologized on behalf of Ukraine for the UPA crimes in Volhynia and so on. Rydz was indifferent to it; while the crime was cruel, the stubbornness of many future Poles on this matter was politically idiotic. What mattered were the consequences, not words, especially since it was enough to ensure that it would not happen again.
Returning to the plan, the first stage was supposed to end with the control and defense along the Dvina and Dnieper rivers. As soon as this was achieved, the second stage was to begin, consisting of two phases. The most essential units for the breakthrough were to be transferred to Estonia and Finland.
The first phase involved launching another double strike to converge in Leningrad. The goal was to gain control over the entire access to the Baltic Sea and northwestern Russia, specifically the territories of the former Novgorod Republic. A new government of White Russia was to be established there in its former capital, Petersburg.
What kind of Russia would it be? It did not matter. The only thing that mattered was the dependence of that government on Poland. It was about finding people desperate enough to seize this unique opportunity to reclaim Russia.
The second phase involved an attack on the Soviet part of Karelia. The second stage was to end with the capture of the last useful seaport with access to the White Sea, which was Arkhangelsk.
In this way, if the alliance with Japan succeeded, the Soviets would be cut off from any possible foreign assistance. The Black Sea was to be a zone controlled by the Romanian fleet and, if possible, also by the Italian fleet.
The second stage was to end when the newly independent states were stable enough to form regular armed forces and a state apparatus. Poland was to be responsible for their equipment, planning to arm them in the style of Division C.
This way, they intended to gain additional divisions composed of people willing to fight for their liberation from the Soviets. The most challenging part would be with the Belarusians, as they had no army, while it would be easier with the Ukrainians, as there were no shortages of veterans from the Ukrainian-Russian War of 2022 healing in Polish military hospitals. If necessary, Ukrainian soldiers serving in the Polish Army would also be added.
The third stage had three phases, with the first one being the most difficult and demanding, a maritime and airborne assault on Transcaucasia. The goal was to liberate Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan from Soviet control and seize the oil fields near Baku from the Soviets. Without achieving this objective, the rest of the third stage would be much more challenging. Therefore, preparations had already begun.
The 7th Coastal Defense Brigade was carved out of the 12th Mechanized Division, and a completely new unit was to take its place. The 7th Brigade itself was placed under a completely new unit, the 7th Lusatian Landing Division, a new four-brigade division of the Polish Army.
The 7th Brigade was reconfigured to become a brigade of marine mechanized infantry. Moreover, an identical formation, the reconstituted 8th Coastal Defense Brigade, was to join it as an identical unit to the 7th.
To complete the picture, the 6th Airborne Brigade and the 25th Air Cavalry Brigade were to be added. They were supposed to be the main striking force in the first phase of the third stage, supplemented by Romanian and Czech forces, as well as liberation units composed of Georgians, Armenians, and Azerbaijanis.
The second stage was to commence when the 7th Division and supporting forces approached Baku. At that point, the Ukrainian and White Russian forces, together with the Polish Army, were to initiate their own offensive. The Ukrainians would move towards Rostov-on-Don and Stalingrad, ultimately meeting the forces from the first stage in the Kuban region.
Meanwhile, the White Russians were to advance towards Moscow, although their main objective would actually be Perm, aiming to subsequently join forces with the Ukrainian Army in the vicinity of Kazan. The second stage was to conclude when the White Russian and Ukrainian forces neared each other.
The third stage was set to begin as the second stage progressed, depending on the success of the previous stage. It would either be a mere formality or a forceful diversion. This stage was also the least complicated, involving a straightforward assault from the Smolensk Gate towards Moscow.
This stage would culminate in the fall of Moscow. By then, the war should only be a formality, assuming the plan proceeded as intended, which Rydz doubted. However, as can be observed, the entire plan relied on gaining allies and gradually cutting off the Soviets from resources while transitioning the Polish Army from a core force to a decisive force, leading the offensive but supplemented by divisions from other countries.
The plan itself aimed to avoid attrition warfare and protracted pushing of the Soviets from their positions. Cities such as Stalingrad and Rostov were planned to be cut off first before attempting to capture them. Only Leningrad was intended to be taken by storm from the very beginning.
Polish planners drew from the experiences of the Ukrainians in 2022/23, as well as from the Germans and their own. They wanted to stretch and tear apart the Soviets piece by piece, rather than rushing forward recklessly. This approach would undoubtedly make the war longer but less exhausting and costly.
Rydz had to admit that while it was a grand plan beyond his wildest dreams, he could clearly see its highly organic and gradual approach. It was not a brilliant maneuver like the one from the Wieprz, but he had no complaints. He was not the one making the decisions, nor would he bear the responsibility for them. He would only command a formation on the front, doing what he loved and excelled at the most.
Personally, he would like to lead the invasion of Transcaucasia, recognizing that it would require exceptional enthusiasm and skills. He could provide both, while also redeeming himself for September 1939, reminding everyone of the old Rydz from 1920, the defender of Vilnius and the conqueror of Dyneburg.
Regardless, the war would be exhausting, and the Soviets would likely not play along as they were expected to. That much Rydz could be certain of.
*Rydz means dollars from the 1930s. He calculated it for himself.
**For American readers, each of these amounts in new Polish złoty should be divided by four to get the equivalent in dollars (contemporary, of course). So, in dollars, it would be:
Poland 2023: $33,250,000,000
Poland 1939: $2,975,000,000
The difference is even more striking, isn't it? For clarification, I calculated this based on the exchange rate on June 14, 2023, when 1 dollar was worth 4.11 złoty. Different results may occur on other days.
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