Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

[Lord Sovereign]

Cope?

Is Mr “Kyiv will fall any day now” accusing us of cope?

Fuck’s sake, man, you’re deluded.

 

[Poe]

Is Mr “Kyiv will fall any day now” accusing us of cope?

Fuck’s sake, man, you’re deluded.

Not according to western analysts lol. I'm not pro-Russia or hoping for it, but a Russian conquest of Ukraine is a very real possibility according to pro-US analysts as I posted above. That poster may be delusional but so are you if you don't think Russia has a real chance at winning this war, and if you think they have lost or what they've sacrificed isn't worth it to them you're wrong.

 

[AnimalNoodles]

Is Mr “Kyiv will fall any day now” accusing us of cope?

Fuck’s sake, man, you’re deluded.

Thing is, i'm willing to admit i was wrong. Damn, we were all wrong. War has changed.

But I have never been wrong about who is going to win.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Thing is, i'm willing to admit i was wrong. Damn, we were all wrong. War has changed.

But I have never been wrong about who is going to win.

Considering this derail started with you babbling about how amused you find other people's analysis, the fact your perpetually wrong about almost everything to the point you've been reduced to only making one binary long term prediction on this topic is perhaps the reason why you are the source of so much bemusement whenever you share your incisive empty opinions on this matter.

 

[strunkenwhite]

nope. All I predict is a russian victory.

OK, but can you give us some rough idea of what in your mind would be a minimal outcome that still counts as "russian victory"?
For example: if Ukraine pushes Russia back to Crimea and the Donbas, does officially absorbing the puppets it already had count as victory? If so then what if Ukraine also retakes one of those two?

If Ukraine retakes everything and RT proclaims a great Russian victory because Ukraine was totally going to genocide all its ethnic Russians but now they are still (mostly) alive will you then count that as victory or is there an actual bottom somewhere?

 

[Zachowon]

Not according to western analysts lol. I'm not pro-Russia or hoping for it, but a Russian conquest of Ukraine is a very real possibility according to pro-US analysts as I posted above. That poster may be delusional but so are you if you don't think Russia has a real chance at winning this war, and if you think they have lost or what they've sacrificed isn't worth it to them you're wrong.

So, I will say this, the war is no where near over and both sides know this.
Ukraine currently needs massive support from the west just due to what Russia is throwing at them.
Of course, the second year of the war just stated, and unless massive changes are made either direction, this will contuine to be a slog fest for more years to come.

 

[LordsFire]

So this is now the cope?

"russia will win, but its really a loss"?

No, it's not cope, it's recognition of reality.

I think Ukraine is going to win; it's more likely than not, simply due to sheer will to fight, and who has what to lose. The Ukrainians stand to lose literally everything if they accept Russian overlords, if the Russians lose, they stand to lose some international prestige and standing.

The utter shit-show they've made of the war has already cost them more international prestige and standing than they'd lose by completing their failure. Arguably, pulling out before they're ground down to the bitter end will cost them less.


However, I know that I don't see everything, and even if I did see everything as it is now, things could radically change in the future, in ways that none of us understand. Maybe something will happen that ignites the spirit of the common Russian citizen to fight, maybe a massive reveal of corruption in Zelensky's government will cripple Ukrainian fighting spirit, I don't know.

All kinds of things could happen, making what is now the most likely eventual outcome of the war change.


Even if that does change though, so many things have already gone so badly wrong for Russia, that the war is not worth it even if they get all of Ukraine. To be specific:

1. Finland and Sweden joining NATO instead of maintaining the neutrality they've held for most of a century.
2. How crappy Russian equipment performs in the field being revealed. Some decent arguments can be made that a lot of the problem is operator error, but most of the nations buying Russian war material don't have training standards any better, if not outright worse.
3. The absolutely spectacular advertising the war has been for how effective American military kit is. Javelins and MANPADS being absolutely critical to drawing the initial Russian thrusts to a halt. HIMARS completely reshaping the entire strategic picture all by itself. Stormshadow making a big impact in spite of the Ukrainians only getting what, 1-200 missiles? Patriot outperforming S-300/400 and Pantsir to such a degree it's ridiculous.
4. The Russian economy getting shellacked. To be fair, they did a pretty good job preparing for some wartime adversity, stockpiling gold and other commodities, and if the war had been remotely close to as short as they'd expected, they could probably have weathered it well. Instead, that's been a delaying measure as everything gets worse.
5. Perhaps most importantly of all, the loss of military and political reputation. Since the beginning of the Cold War, Russia has been thought of as a world-class military power. After the collapse of the USSR, everyone knew they'd dropped off substantially, but they were still thought of 'the world's second military' after the USA. Now, they're a laughingstock, known to not even remotely be a peer to actual first-world militaries, and the only reason they're a medium-tier threat rather than a low-tier threat, is the sheer size of their military.
6. The fact that they've been getting their military put through a meat grinder. They're far from spent, but they've suffered horrific losses, and have literally devolved to throwing waves of conscripts in obsolete equipment at the enemy to try to overwhelm them by sheer weight of numbers. That's not all they do, they still have some decent units left, but it's not something any competent military does at all unless it's in situations desperate on the level of 'our capital is being stormed.'


Any two or three of these elements would make the Ukrainian war of questionable value assuming that they won, but all six of them combined, on top of not actually winning the war?

No, this wasn't worth it, and barring some sort of black swan event, there's no way for it to become worth it to Russia as a whole.

 

[Tiamat]

No, it's not cope, it's recognition of reality.

I think Ukraine is going to win; it's more likely than not, simply due to sheer will to fight, and who has what to lose. The Ukrainians stand to lose literally everything if they accept Russian overlords, if the Russians lose, they stand to lose some international prestige and standing.

The utter shit-show they've made of the war has already cost them more international prestige and standing than they'd lose by completing their failure. Arguably, pulling out before they're ground down to the bitter end will cost them less.


However, I know that I don't see everything, and even if I did see everything as it is now, things could radically change in the future, in ways that none of us understand. Maybe something will happen that ignites the spirit of the common Russian citizen to fight, maybe a massive reveal of corruption in Zelensky's government will cripple Ukrainian fighting spirit, I don't know.

All kinds of things could happen, making what is now the most likely eventual outcome of the war change.


Even if that does change though, so many things have already gone so badly wrong for Russia, that the war is not worth it even if they get all of Ukraine. To be specific:

1. Finland and Sweden joining NATO instead of maintaining the neutrality they've held for most of a century.
2. How crappy Russian equipment performs in the field being revealed. Some decent arguments can be made that a lot of the problem is operator error, but most of the nations buying Russian war material don't have training standards any better, if not outright worse.
3. The absolutely spectacular advertising the war has been for how effective American military kit is. Javelins and MANPADS being absolutely critical to drawing the initial Russian thrusts to a halt. HIMARS completely reshaping the entire strategic picture all by itself. Stormshadow making a big impact in spite of the Ukrainians only getting what, 1-200 missiles? Patriot outperforming S-300/400 and Pantsir to such a degree it's ridiculous.
4. The Russian economy getting shellacked. To be fair, they did a pretty good job preparing for some wartime adversity, stockpiling gold and other commodities, and if the war had been remotely close to as short as they'd expected, they could probably have weathered it well. Instead, that's been a delaying measure as everything gets worse.
5. Perhaps most importantly of all, the loss of military and political reputation. Since the beginning of the Cold War, Russia has been thought of as a world-class military power. After the collapse of the USSR, everyone knew they'd dropped off substantially, but they were still thought of 'the world's second military' after the USA. Now, they're a laughingstock, known to not even remotely be a peer to actual first-world militaries, and the only reason they're a medium-tier threat rather than a low-tier threat, is the sheer size of their military.
6. The fact that they've been getting their military put through a meat grinder. They're far from spent, but they've suffered horrific losses, and have literally devolved to throwing waves of conscripts in obsolete equipment at the enemy to try to overwhelm them by sheer weight of numbers. That's not all they do, they still have some decent units left, but it's not something any competent military does at all unless it's in situations desperate on the level of 'our capital is being stormed.'


Any two or three of these elements would make the Ukrainian war of questionable value assuming that they won, but all six of them combined, on top of not actually winning the war?

No, this wasn't worth it, and barring some sort of black swan event, there's no way for it to become worth it to Russia as a whole.

Not to mention, let's assume worst case scenario for Ukraine, they do eventually lose/collapse to Russia? Russia's now stuck having to police an entire country that's now going to be bereft with partisan activity (and said partisans will probably be getting quiet support from various parties). Not to mention Ukraine has plenty of experience with partisan operations. A few conversations I had with a couple Ukrainians who recently immigrated to the US was enlightening to say the least.

NATO as said has enlarged and is going to continue to rearm, and likely fortify the hell out of any border with Russia. The sanctions are likely going to remain in place and not go away as nobody trusts Russia's word on anything now and are going to wonder where the next "instability" will come next, especially with the nationalists in Russian now proclaiming, with Putin's backing, that all land that was part of the "historical Russian Empire" belongs to Russia, which counts quite a few territories that belong to other countries, several of whom are now part of NATO, and overall don't share Moscow's sentiments, Alaska among them (yes, I'm serious).

 

[ATP]

So this is now the cope?

"russia will win, but its really a loss"?

No.Soviet victory mean taking Kiev in week,like they planned.Even if they take Kiev now,it would be still defeat for them.
Look what happened to other ex-soviet states now - all are listening to China now,no Moscov.

Kgbstan started war as weakened superpower,but now are another China vassal state.It would not change,even if they take Ukraine now.

Unless...Biden would gave Moscov Poland and rest of Central Europe,too.FDR did it,so why not another demorats?
Then,and only then,Moscov win.

 

[AnimalNoodles]

To have a truly effective partisan movement you need lots of young men. Ukraine doesnt have those.

No, it's not cope, it's recognition of reality.

I think Ukraine is going to win; it's more likely than not, simply due to sheer will to fight, and who has what to lose. The Ukrainians stand to lose literally everything if they accept Russian overlords, if the Russians lose, they stand to lose some international prestige and standing.

Will to fight is no match for shell production.

The utter shit-show they've made of the war has already cost them more international prestige and standing than they'd lose by completing their failure. Arguably, pulling out before they're ground down to the bitter end will cost them less.


However, I know that I don't see everything, and even if I did see everything as it is now, things could radically change in the future, in ways that none of us understand. Maybe something will happen that ignites the spirit of the common Russian citizen to fight, maybe a massive reveal of corruption in Zelensky's government will cripple Ukrainian fighting spirit, I don't know.

All kinds of things could happen, making what is now the most likely eventual outcome of the war change.


Even if that does change though, so many things have already gone so badly wrong for Russia, that the war is not worth it even if they get all of Ukraine. To be specific:

1. Finland and Sweden joining NATO instead of maintaining the neutrality they've held for most of a century.
2. How crappy Russian equipment performs in the field being revealed. Some decent arguments can be made that a lot of the problem is operator error, but most of the nations buying Russian war material don't have training standards any better, if not outright worse.

Their equipment has done just fine.

3. The absolutely spectacular advertising the war has been for how effective American military kit is. Javelins and MANPADS being absolutely critical to drawing the initial Russian thrusts to a halt. HIMARS completely reshaping the entire strategic picture all by itself. Stormshadow making a big impact in spite of the Ukrainians only getting what, 1-200 missiles? Patriot outperforming S-300/400 and Pantsir to such a degree it's ridiculous.

The only western weapon that has made any difference if HIMARS. And patriots outperforming SAMS? lol. Patriots cant even properly defend the Saudis from houthi rockets.

4. The Russian economy getting shellacked. To be fair, they did a pretty good job preparing for some wartime adversity, stockpiling gold and other commodities, and if the war had been remotely close to as short as they'd expected, they could probably have weathered it well. Instead, that's been a delaying measure as everything gets worse.

And how good is the western economy? The USA executed the German economy when it blew up the pipeline.

5. Perhaps most importantly of all, the loss of military and political reputation. Since the beginning of the Cold War, Russia has been thought of as a world-class military power. After the collapse of the USSR, everyone knew they'd dropped off substantially, but they were still thought of 'the world's second military' after the USA. Now, they're a laughingstock, known to not even remotely be a peer to actual first-world militaries, and the only reason they're a medium-tier threat rather than a low-tier threat, is the sheer size of their military.

The one who has shown itself to be weak lately is our own military-industrial establishment, which cannot even force a bunch of goat herders in yemen to stop taking potshots at our ships. Its not Russia's weakness that has been revealed, but our own. We have seen that our weapons and training are overrated, our tactics obsolete, our productive capacity denuded and our enemies are taking notice.

6. The fact that they've been getting their military put through a meat grinder. They're far from spent, but they've suffered horrific losses, and have literally devolved to throwing waves of conscripts in obsolete equipment at the enemy to try to overwhelm them by sheer weight of numbers. That's not all they do, they still have some decent units left, but it's not something any competent military does at all unless it's in situations desperate on the level of 'our capital is being stormed.'

Delusional bullshit. No one is sending human wave attacks and Ukrainian losses are now up 1200 a day.

Any two or three of these elements would make the Ukrainian war of questionable value assuming that they won, but all six of them combined, on top of not actually winning the war?

No, this wasn't worth it, and barring some sort of black swan event, there's no way for it to become worth it to Russia as a whole.

Based on whose priorities? If the Russians succeed in what they want to do, we will have a smashed up ukrainian rump state incapable of causing trouble, a divided NATO with empty armouries, a deindustrialised germany that is rife with division and a large, modernised and battle hardened Russian army looming over europe.

Ukraine has lost, and if we werent ruled by vindictive psychopaths, the war would have been over months ago with a negotiated settlement.

 

[LordsFire]

snip

Well, I'll say this much for you. You aren't obnoxious and deliberately caustic about it like Agent23 or History Learner...

...But you are still living in a world of delusion, shaped by Russian propaganda.

 

[strunkenwhite]

Ukraine has lost, and if we werent ruled by vindictive psychopaths, the war would have been over months ago with a negotiated settlement.

Oh, that reminds me, were you planning to answer the question I asked you?

 

[History Learner]

 

[Marduk]

>Russian flag in name
>shilling for Russia
>quoting leftist or other asset for support
Sasuga vatnik-kun.
In other news water is wet and sun rises in the east.

 

[AnimalNoodles]

Oh, that reminds me, were you planning to answer the question I asked you?

what question is that?

 

[LordsFire]

>Russian flag in name
>shilling for Russia
>quoting leftist or other asset for support
Sasuga vatnik-kun.
In other news water is wet and sun rises in the east.

The particularly hilarious part, is how they post this after multiple Ukrainian drone strikes deep into Russian territory.

 

[Jormungandr]

...This is seriously like listening to a communist ranting on about how communism is winning at the end of the Cold War while citing other communists' rantings as evidence.

Bruh, come on.

 

[strunkenwhite]

what question is that?

With regard to you saying "All I predict is a russian victory":

"OK, but can you give us some rough idea of what in your mind would be a minimal outcome that still counts as "russian victory"?
For example: if Ukraine pushes Russia back to Crimea and the Donbas, does officially absorbing the puppets it already had count as victory? If so then what if Ukraine also retakes one of those two?

"If Ukraine retakes everything and RT proclaims a great Russian victory because Ukraine was totally going to genocide all its ethnic Russians but now they are still (mostly) alive will you then count that as victory or is there an actual bottom somewhere?"

 

[AnimalNoodles]

With regard to you saying "All I predict is a russian victory":

"OK, but can you give us some rough idea of what in your mind would be a minimal outcome that still counts as "russian victory"?
For example: if Ukraine pushes Russia back to Crimea and the Donbas, does officially absorbing the puppets it already had count as victory? If so then what if Ukraine also retakes one of those two?

"If Ukraine retakes everything and RT proclaims a great Russian victory because Ukraine was totally going to genocide all its ethnic Russians but now they are still (mostly) alive will you then count that as victory or is there an actual bottom somewhere?"

Complete Russian victory can be defined as Russia dictating the terms to Ukraine. I personally think it will mean Russia takes everything up the Dnieper. Now how does Russia define it? I dont know. Then there are levels of victory beneath that. When the war is over, Russia will be stronger, Ukraine will be a wreck. Thats victory.

 

[Zachowon]

Russian victory can be defined as Russia dictating the terms to Ukraine. I personally think it will mean Russia takes everything up the Dnieper. Now how does Russia define it? I dont know.

So...your definition is currently unlikely as they are no where near the Dnieper in certain parts