Lord Sovereign
The resident Britbong
Is Mr “Kyiv will fall any day now” accusing us of cope?Cope?
Fuck’s sake, man, you’re deluded.
Is Mr “Kyiv will fall any day now” accusing us of cope?Cope?
Not according to western analysts lol. I'm not pro-Russia or hoping for it, but a Russian conquest of Ukraine is a very real possibility according to pro-US analysts as I posted above. That poster may be delusional but so are you if you don't think Russia has a real chance at winning this war, and if you think they have lost or what they've sacrificed isn't worth it to them you're wrong.Is Mr “Kyiv will fall any day now” accusing us of cope?
Fuck’s sake, man, you’re deluded.
Is Mr “Kyiv will fall any day now” accusing us of cope?
Fuck’s sake, man, you’re deluded.
Thing is, i'm willing to admit i was wrong. Damn, we were all wrong. War has changed.
But I have never been wrong about who is going to win.
OK, but can you give us some rough idea of what in your mind would be a minimal outcome that still counts as "russian victory"?nope. All I predict is a russian victory.
So, I will say this, the war is no where near over and both sides know this.Not according to western analysts lol. I'm not pro-Russia or hoping for it, but a Russian conquest of Ukraine is a very real possibility according to pro-US analysts as I posted above. That poster may be delusional but so are you if you don't think Russia has a real chance at winning this war, and if you think they have lost or what they've sacrificed isn't worth it to them you're wrong.
No, it's not cope, it's recognition of reality.So this is now the cope?
"russia will win, but its really a loss"?
No, it's not cope, it's recognition of reality.
I think Ukraine is going to win; it's more likely than not, simply due to sheer will to fight, and who has what to lose. The Ukrainians stand to lose literally everything if they accept Russian overlords, if the Russians lose, they stand to lose some international prestige and standing.
The utter shit-show they've made of the war has already cost them more international prestige and standing than they'd lose by completing their failure. Arguably, pulling out before they're ground down to the bitter end will cost them less.
However, I know that I don't see everything, and even if I did see everything as it is now, things could radically change in the future, in ways that none of us understand. Maybe something will happen that ignites the spirit of the common Russian citizen to fight, maybe a massive reveal of corruption in Zelensky's government will cripple Ukrainian fighting spirit, I don't know.
All kinds of things could happen, making what is now the most likely eventual outcome of the war change.
Even if that does change though, so many things have already gone so badly wrong for Russia, that the war is not worth it even if they get all of Ukraine. To be specific:
1. Finland and Sweden joining NATO instead of maintaining the neutrality they've held for most of a century.
2. How crappy Russian equipment performs in the field being revealed. Some decent arguments can be made that a lot of the problem is operator error, but most of the nations buying Russian war material don't have training standards any better, if not outright worse.
3. The absolutely spectacular advertising the war has been for how effective American military kit is. Javelins and MANPADS being absolutely critical to drawing the initial Russian thrusts to a halt. HIMARS completely reshaping the entire strategic picture all by itself. Stormshadow making a big impact in spite of the Ukrainians only getting what, 1-200 missiles? Patriot outperforming S-300/400 and Pantsir to such a degree it's ridiculous.
4. The Russian economy getting shellacked. To be fair, they did a pretty good job preparing for some wartime adversity, stockpiling gold and other commodities, and if the war had been remotely close to as short as they'd expected, they could probably have weathered it well. Instead, that's been a delaying measure as everything gets worse.
5. Perhaps most importantly of all, the loss of military and political reputation. Since the beginning of the Cold War, Russia has been thought of as a world-class military power. After the collapse of the USSR, everyone knew they'd dropped off substantially, but they were still thought of 'the world's second military' after the USA. Now, they're a laughingstock, known to not even remotely be a peer to actual first-world militaries, and the only reason they're a medium-tier threat rather than a low-tier threat, is the sheer size of their military.
6. The fact that they've been getting their military put through a meat grinder. They're far from spent, but they've suffered horrific losses, and have literally devolved to throwing waves of conscripts in obsolete equipment at the enemy to try to overwhelm them by sheer weight of numbers. That's not all they do, they still have some decent units left, but it's not something any competent military does at all unless it's in situations desperate on the level of 'our capital is being stormed.'
Any two or three of these elements would make the Ukrainian war of questionable value assuming that they won, but all six of them combined, on top of not actually winning the war?
No, this wasn't worth it, and barring some sort of black swan event, there's no way for it to become worth it to Russia as a whole.
No.Soviet victory mean taking Kiev in week,like they planned.Even if they take Kiev now,it would be still defeat for them.So this is now the cope?
"russia will win, but its really a loss"?
No, it's not cope, it's recognition of reality.
I think Ukraine is going to win; it's more likely than not, simply due to sheer will to fight, and who has what to lose. The Ukrainians stand to lose literally everything if they accept Russian overlords, if the Russians lose, they stand to lose some international prestige and standing.
The utter shit-show they've made of the war has already cost them more international prestige and standing than they'd lose by completing their failure. Arguably, pulling out before they're ground down to the bitter end will cost them less.
However, I know that I don't see everything, and even if I did see everything as it is now, things could radically change in the future, in ways that none of us understand. Maybe something will happen that ignites the spirit of the common Russian citizen to fight, maybe a massive reveal of corruption in Zelensky's government will cripple Ukrainian fighting spirit, I don't know.
All kinds of things could happen, making what is now the most likely eventual outcome of the war change.
Even if that does change though, so many things have already gone so badly wrong for Russia, that the war is not worth it even if they get all of Ukraine. To be specific:
1. Finland and Sweden joining NATO instead of maintaining the neutrality they've held for most of a century.
2. How crappy Russian equipment performs in the field being revealed. Some decent arguments can be made that a lot of the problem is operator error, but most of the nations buying Russian war material don't have training standards any better, if not outright worse.
3. The absolutely spectacular advertising the war has been for how effective American military kit is. Javelins and MANPADS being absolutely critical to drawing the initial Russian thrusts to a halt. HIMARS completely reshaping the entire strategic picture all by itself. Stormshadow making a big impact in spite of the Ukrainians only getting what, 1-200 missiles? Patriot outperforming S-300/400 and Pantsir to such a degree it's ridiculous.
4. The Russian economy getting shellacked. To be fair, they did a pretty good job preparing for some wartime adversity, stockpiling gold and other commodities, and if the war had been remotely close to as short as they'd expected, they could probably have weathered it well. Instead, that's been a delaying measure as everything gets worse.
5. Perhaps most importantly of all, the loss of military and political reputation. Since the beginning of the Cold War, Russia has been thought of as a world-class military power. After the collapse of the USSR, everyone knew they'd dropped off substantially, but they were still thought of 'the world's second military' after the USA. Now, they're a laughingstock, known to not even remotely be a peer to actual first-world militaries, and the only reason they're a medium-tier threat rather than a low-tier threat, is the sheer size of their military.
6. The fact that they've been getting their military put through a meat grinder. They're far from spent, but they've suffered horrific losses, and have literally devolved to throwing waves of conscripts in obsolete equipment at the enemy to try to overwhelm them by sheer weight of numbers. That's not all they do, they still have some decent units left, but it's not something any competent military does at all unless it's in situations desperate on the level of 'our capital is being stormed.'
Any two or three of these elements would make the Ukrainian war of questionable value assuming that they won, but all six of them combined, on top of not actually winning the war?
No, this wasn't worth it, and barring some sort of black swan event, there's no way for it to become worth it to Russia as a whole.
Well, I'll say this much for you. You aren't obnoxious and deliberately caustic about it like Agent23 or History Learner...snip
Oh, that reminds me, were you planning to answer the question I asked you?Ukraine has lost, and if we werent ruled by vindictive psychopaths, the war would have been over months ago with a negotiated settlement.
Oh, that reminds me, were you planning to answer the question I asked you?
The particularly hilarious part, is how they post this after multiple Ukrainian drone strikes deep into Russian territory.>Russian flag in name
>shilling for Russia
>quoting leftist or other asset for support
Sasuga vatnik-kun.
In other news water is wet and sun rises in the east.
With regard to you saying "All I predict is a russian victory":what question is that?
With regard to you saying "All I predict is a russian victory":
"OK, but can you give us some rough idea of what in your mind would be a minimal outcome that still counts as "russian victory"?
For example: if Ukraine pushes Russia back to Crimea and the Donbas, does officially absorbing the puppets it already had count as victory? If so then what if Ukraine also retakes one of those two?
"If Ukraine retakes everything and RT proclaims a great Russian victory because Ukraine was totally going to genocide all its ethnic Russians but now they are still (mostly) alive will you then count that as victory or is there an actual bottom somewhere?"
So...your definition is currently unlikely as they are no where near the Dnieper in certain partsRussian victory can be defined as Russia dictating the terms to Ukraine. I personally think it will mean Russia takes everything up the Dnieper. Now how does Russia define it? I dont know.