Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

[LordsFire]

Don't forget that the extreme far east of that map is immediately to the west of Alaska. The USA will (in a Russia Collapses scenario) have an interest in China not replacing Russia there. Having complete control of the Bering Strait and the seas north and south of it would be pretty nice, especially if arctic shipping grows dramatically in the next few decades.

If you had a sane President, making parts of far eastern Russia a de-facto US protectorate, along the lines of Puerto Rico, would probably be a solid move.

The locals get American protection.

We get military bases in strategically useful locations, and China not grabbing as much land.

Everyone wins.

 

[Buba]

Having complete control of the Bering Strait and the seas north and south of it would be pretty nice, especially if arctic shipping grows dramatically in the next few decades.

Not likely. The Warm Period will come to an end, eventually.

 

[strunkenwhite]

Not likely. The Warm Period will come to an end, eventually.

Sure, but is "eventually" within 50 years?

 

[Buba]

Sure, but is "eventually" within 50 years?

Maybe. Possibly. Nobody knows. As of today the North-East Passage still is NOT a viable route for large scale maritime traffic. The warming may continue, may stop, may regress - all are equally possible.
The Vilkitski Strait can be navigated - with icebreaker assistance! - for 30 days on average. Over the last 20 years - sometimes longer, sometime shorter, a few years - NOT.AT.ALL.
Artic traffic growing dramatically - maybe. Tealeaves and crystal balls territory. Not something to plan policy around.

 

[strunkenwhite]

The Vilkitski Strait can be navigated - with icebreaker assistance! - for 30 days on average. Over the last 2 years - sometimes longer, sometime shorter, a few years - NOT.AT.ALL.

I was confused by how you phrased that. I now believe you meant that the 30 day average is taken from an unknown but long time period (which is relevant since conditions have been changing over time), and that of the past two years one was higher than 30 days and one lower, and that a few unknown years of the unknown time period had no navigability (as opposed to "a few years ago, it was not navigable").

I did find this helpful graphic which suggests two things: you're wrong about the time the passage has been practically navigable in recent years, and you might be thinking about the Northwest Passage instead.

I must say, though, it's hard to find comprehensive data on this. Grabbing anecdotes here and there from whatever different sources is just asking to run afoul of differing standards for counting. (I found once source saying that in 2021 the NSR saw 2.75 million tons of shipping, while another claimed 33!)

 

[Bacle]

If you had a sane President, making parts of far eastern Russia a de-facto US protectorate, along the lines of Puerto Rico, would probably be a solid move.

The locals get American protection.

We get military bases in strategically useful locations, and China not grabbing as much land.

Everyone wins.

It also would reunite Inuit and Aleut tribes with their kin stuck under Russian control, who have effectively been cut off from each other since the Cold War began.

 

[Poe]

To be fair, the pro Russia side also made some bold predictions about Ukraine being captured by Russia. Those prophecies also failed to materialize.

I'm not on the pro-Russia side, but this is way, way more likely than Russian collapsing and China taking the far east. It isn't just the pro-Russian side saying this, the very pro-west ISW has stated without western support a full conquest of Ukraine is a very real possibility.

...I'm sorry, did anyone here put a definite timeline on how fast it would happen?

Because I didn't.

It's not going to happen and this belief of yours is, and the map you posted above, are delusional. Worst case scenario they end up as an isolated nation and confined to their current territory. You are in some crazy ass bubble if this is a seriously held belief.

 

[Buba]

I was confused by how you phrased that.

And no wonder - I wanted to write twenty and not two years. The dog internet ate the zero.

Nice graph - over the 12(?) illustrated years the navigation season swings between c. 85 and c.15 days. Not something a business can be build around

 

[Jormungandr]

Yeah, the Passages are basically very unpredictable, and even with massive ice-breaking ships, it pretty much is all the various shipping and cargo companies waiting like vultures or taking the opportunity to cross them when they rarely become viable shortcuts than relying on them outright.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Coming Soon to a Suwalki Gap Near (Some of) You!



I don't know how these OSINT people manage to edit together the battle footage so seamlessly.

 

[DarthOne]

 

[mrttao]

Biden has been fostering corruption in ukraine. Accepted bribes from there, forced them to suppress info about his bribery, and even had people assassinated.
Also, with a strong USA president Russia would not have even dared invaded Ukraine in the first place.

 

[Skallagrim]

574 to Ukraine's 44? Fucking hell; Russia isn't just bleeding, it's hemorrhaging.

At this rate I think all the Ukrainians have to do is stick it out. Russia’s stockpile is a Hell of a lot smaller than it was.

If these numbers are accurate, the last week comes down to a ratio of 43 to 1. If this signifies a trend, then 574 Russian losses over the last two years are indicative of 'the good times' for them... and they may expect that number of losses again in just the next six months or so.

I'll say it again: Russia has lost this war. Even if Ukraine folds tomorrow and Russia keeps everything it currently holds, this war has wrecked Russia already. Bled it to the bone, burned away what monetary reserves it had, crushed its trade potential, blew away its weapons stockpiles...

And the land they've conquered -- oh, pardon me, "liberated" -- is utterly ruined. By them. It's not useful, and they won't be able to make it useful again for at least a decade. Probably more.

The American political nonsense that is sharply decreasing the ability to aid Ukraine is foolish as hell, because this is truly the perfect way to harm Russia as much as possible, as quickly as possible, as cheaply as possible, as safely as possible. It's insane not to try and get the maximum bang for your buck out of this amazing fuck-up by Russia. But regardless... the strategy has already worked. "Fight to the last Ukrainian" has paid off. Russia has wrecked itself at the cost of zero NATO losses, and the soft, pampered European states are finally taking their NATO obligations a bit more seriously. In fact, NATO has expanded. And Ukraine, formerly an 'in-between', is now 100% anti-Russian.

Nice going, Putin! We should send you a gift basket for all your hard work fostering Western unity!

(Gift basket may or may not contain incendiary device. Traces of radio-active material may be present. Not suitable for people who are allergic to irony.)

 

[Tiamat]

Nice going, Putin! We should send you a gift basket for all your hard work fostering Western unity!

(Gift basket may or may not contain incendiary device. Traces of radio-active material may be present. Not suitable for people who are allergic to irony.)

Make it a fruit basket with a lot of watermelons. (Watermelons is one of Ukraine's staple food crops)

On a more serious note, not only has this whole fuckup bled Russia hard, their demographics were already struggling. With the losses from this along with the brain drain of other Russians who fled the conscription--sorry, partial mobilization, this has just exacerbated the problem further.

 

[Lord Sovereign]

Ukraine, even if diminished, has ensured its survival. Zelensky will have earned his statue next to the Ukrainian Parliament building by my estimation. A more unlikely Churchill figure you could never find.

Because even if, in the worst case scenario, Ukraine folds and Russia keeps all its conquered territories…Ukraine would then be at peace and promptly fast tracked into the EU and NATO. Whereafter Russia simply can’t touch them, gets nothing out of the land it has ruined and implodes anyway.

More likely in my opinion is that the bloody minded Ukrainians see this through to the bitter end. The bitter end looking like Russia’s version of the German collapse in 1918 where they lose everything, Sevastopol included.

At which point? After centuries beneath the boot of Muscovy, Kyiv rises again. A second chance well earned indeed.

 

[Jormungandr]

If these numbers are accurate, the last week comes down to a ratio of 43 to 1. If this signifies a trend, then 574 Russian losses over the last two years are indicative of 'the good times' for them... and they may expect that number of losses again in just the next six months or so.

I'll say it again: Russia has lost this war. Even if Ukraine folds tomorrow and Russia keeps everything it currently holds, this war has wrecked Russia already. Bled it to the bone, burned away what monetary reserves it had, crushed its trade potential, blew away its weapons stockpiles...

And the land they've conquered -- oh, pardon me, "liberated" -- is utterly ruined. By them. It's not useful, and they won't be able to make it useful again for at least a decade. Probably more.

The American political nonsense that is sharply decreasing the ability to aid Ukraine is foolish as hell, because this is truly the perfect way to harm Russia as much as possible, as quickly as possible, as cheaply as possible, as safely as possible. It's insane not to try and get the maximum bang for your buck out of this amazing fuck-up by Russia. But regardless... the strategy has already worked. "Fight to the last Ukrainian" has paid off. Russia has wrecked itself at the cost of zero NATO losses, and the soft, pampered European states are finally taking their NATO obligations a bit more seriously. In fact, NATO has expanded. And Ukraine, formerly an 'in-between', is now 100% anti-Russian.

Nice going, Putin! We should send you a gift basket for all your hard work fostering Western unity!

(Gift basket may or may not contain incendiary device. Traces of radio-active material may be present. Not suitable for people who are allergic to irony.)

Yep: Even if Russia does somehow "win", it'd be as pyrrhic as burning down your house to the foundations to kill a spider.

The only hope for Russia's survival, I think, is if they start selling (in small amounts to avoid market saturation) their diamond stockpile they keep au naturale in Siberia.

Russia’s Crater of Diamonds

Popigai is one of the largest and most well-preserved impact craters on Earth.

earthobservatory.nasa.gov

Even then that may not work.

 

[Skallagrim]

A good reminder Ukraine is far from having this is the bag, particularly without sustained support, and that Russia can still 'win' if the West slacks aid 'because Russia is already defeated'.

Russia is not defeated and driven from Ukraine yet, and still has ways to win if the west keeps being dumb about aid.

Feeling like 'Ukraine has already won' is becoming counterproductive to actually getting Ukraine the supplies need to win.

That's another point. I'm not saying Ukraine has won, or even that Ukraine will definitely win.

I'm saying Russia has already lost. That's something else. Russia has lost, even if Ukraine also loses. The West has won. In the worst case scenario, the West will ultimately see that victory achieved at the expense of Ukraine. That's the potential price: that Ukraine is cynically sacrificed to mortally wound Russia.

I think that's dumb, mind you. Because you can bring Russia down more quickly and more thoroughly by helping Ukraine. (Which also yields you a future ally you can really count on.) It's obviously the better strategy.

But you're talking as if "Ukraine wins" and "Russia loses" are the same thing. They're not. Whether Ukraine wins, or whether it burns down to the ground, is functionally immaterial to the greater outcome. Russia has lost, even if it "beats" Ukraine. That's the point. Any victory it can now achieve will by Pyrrhic.

(Edit: ninja'd by @Jormungandr!)

 

[Bacle]

Yep: Even if Russia does somehow "win", it'd be as pyrrhic as burning down your house to the foundations to kill a spider.

The only hope for Russia's survival, I think, is if they start selling (in small amounts to avoid market saturation) their diamond stockpile they keep au naturale in Siberia.

Russia’s Crater of Diamonds

Popigai is one of the largest and most well-preserved impact craters on Earth.

earthobservatory.nasa.gov

Even then that may not work.

That's another point. I'm not saying Ukraine has won, or even that Ukraine will definitely win.

I'm saying Russia has already lost. That's something else. Russia has lost, even if Ukraine also loses. The West has won. In the worst case scenario, the West will ultimately see that victory achieved at the expense of Ukraine. That's the potential price: that Ukraine is cynically sacrificed to mortally wound Russia.

I think that's dumb, mind you. Because you can bring Russia down more quickly and more thoroughly by helping Ukraine. (Which also yields you a future ally you can really count on.) It's obviously the better strategy.

But you're talking as if "Ukraine wins" and "Russia loses" are the same thing. They're not. Whether Ukraine wins, or whether it burns down to the ground, is functionally immaterial to the greater outcome. Russia has lost, even if it "beats" Ukraine. That's the point. Any victory it can now achieve will by Pyrrhic.

(Edit: ninja'd by @Jormungandr!)

I gave you both a like because I feel mostly the same way.

What Tataragami_UA posted however is about the fact that RUSSIA DOESN'T SEE IT THAT WAY.

You guys make a mistake so many others have made, which lead to this road; you think Russian's think the same way westerners do, and will respond/see a what we would call a 'pyrrhic' as such.

Russians have never known freedom as we think of it, they went from being serf to being commies in the span of a few decades, and do not have the same sort of cultural mindset to even admit or allow a 'pyrrhic' victory to happen these days.

 

[Lord Sovereign]

RUSSIA DOESN'T SEE IT THAT WAY.

Well good for them, they’re wrong.

This is not a different cultural attitude, this is the delusion of a fallen empire that still thinks it’s the top dog in its neck of the words. Russia is fighting like it’s still the USSR or even the Old Empire; but it isn’t.

Russia simply does not have the resources to wage war on that scale anymore, and by trying to do so they have damned themselves. The only thing that has kept them going so far is their massive stockpile of Soviet kit that they are burning through at an industrial rate. Economic sanctions and their own corruption has crippled their manufacturing to such an extent that the losses cannot be replaced. Their only hope is that Ukraine folds before they finish burning through their stockpile. Because if Kyiv has not fallen by the time the last T-55 is destroyed…oh dear…

 

[Jormungandr]

Yup -- delusions do not deny reality.