Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

[Marduk]

And my position is the opposite of what you are reacting against. Yes, one-sided standards like that should be rejected. If we accept that major world powers having their tentacles all over the place is simply the behavior of rational actors - and I think that we do - then don't be like the American Democrats and freak out about Russia doing what they themselves do all the time.

I don't freak out about it. Just because we do it too, in no way means there is no place for arguing that some other power, also being rational actors, should sometimes apply a hammer to some other rational actor tentacle. It's not like Russians would ever shy away from doing the same. Though i still throughly reject the internationalist pseudomoralist arguments that we shouldn't stand on our own side and favor it, just sit back, self flagellate and let rivals, enemies and competitors do whatever they want because anything else would be hypocrisy and "losing the moral high ground".
Less navel gazing, more winning.

 

[Agent23]

anything else would be hypocrisy and "losing the moral high ground".
Less navel gazing, more winning.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Ukrainian aligned militants are enforcing an illegal blockade upon Russian civilian shipping in the Northern Arctic Ocean, denying Russian citizens peaceful access to Russian owned Franz Josef Land.



This is an escalation.

 

[Doomsought]

Ukrainian aligned militants are enforcing an illegal blockade upon Russian civilian shipping in the Northern Arctic Ocean, denying Russian citizens peaceful access to Russian owned Franz Josef Land.

Bullshit. Blockading Russian shipping is an entirely reasonable way for Ukraine to retaliate against Russia.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Bullshit. Blockading Russian shipping is an entirely reasonable way for Ukraine to retaliate against Russia.

Oh what about now?

Congratulations. You just started World War Three.

 

[Spartan303]

Ukrainian aligned militants are enforcing an illegal blockade upon Russian civilian shipping in the Northern Arctic Ocean, denying Russian citizens peaceful access to Russian owned Franz Josef Land.



This is an escalation.

 

[Morphic Tide]

Congratulations. You just started World War Three.

Only if "the international community" finishes wiping its ass with the pretense that they ever thought the Cold War ended, because there's not actually any treaty obligating any support for Ukraine on anything. That was a rather explicit part of the conditions for Ukraine giving up its own nukes. We are, per international law, perfectly in the clear to just leave Kiev an irradiated crater, and Russia's really not going to have a happy time justifying Ukraine using the navy it's had for quite a while on them as a reason for nuking the suppliers.

Proper edit: We've been doing literally everything short of putting our boots on the ground, right down to sending military personnel to instruct Ukrainians in the use of fresh-from-our-stockpiles equipment. If Russia were willing to make this escalation they already would have because only the very barest of technicalities, long in violation of the Budapest Memorandum, separates what NATO's doing from being at war with Russia.

 

[Husky_Khan]

A New Russian Armored Fighting Vehicle Rises From the Ashes. In this case a Naval 213mm Anti-Submarine Multiple Rocket Launcher onto an MT-LB.

Military History Visualized actually examined the efficacy and effectiveness of mounting this Anti-Submarine MRL onto an MT-LB as an improvised fighting vehicle.



Long story short, just because it's improvised doesn't mean its not deadly. The anti-submarine rockets would be pretty devastating against armor due to the shaped charges it fires. Also it is designed as both an anti-submarine weapon but also for shore bombardment so it has always been a dual use weapon system.

The range of the vehicle is shorter then typically expected but the mobility of the MT-LB could offset that. There is likely a lot of ammunition available for it since it's a common Russian Navy weapons system that has been in production for a while but there could be logistical issues in getting those munitions to those vehicles as well as things like spare parts.

 

[Jormungandr]

Russia is becoming more and more like the GLA the longer this "Special Military Operation" goes on.

 

[Blasterbot]

Walrus are really big. like 3/4ths of a ton big. when they decide they want to sleep somewhere?

when they decide to attack? they big and ungainly on land but they are far more mobile at sea. you can of course shoot them. but they are a protected species so you are encouraged not to. plus you got to clean up a 3/4ths ton of corpse afterwards.

 

[ShadowArxxy]

Only if "the international community" finishes wiping its ass with the pretense that they ever thought the Cold War ended, because there's not actually any treaty obligating any support for Ukraine on anything. That was a rather explicit part of the conditions for Ukraine giving up its own nukes. We are, per international law, perfectly in the clear to just leave Kiev an irradiated crater, and Russia's really not going to have a happy time justifying Ukraine using the navy it's had for quite a while on them as a reason for nuking the suppliers.

Proper edit: We've been doing literally everything short of putting our boots on the ground, right down to sending military personnel to instruct Ukrainians in the use of fresh-from-our-stockpiles equipment. If Russia were willing to make this escalation they already would have because only the very barest of technicalities, long in violation of the Budapest Memorandum, separates what NATO's doing from being at war with Russia.

It's really not any different than the Cold War days where the US and USSR were constantly engaging in proxy wars where they were exactly that barest of technicalities away from actual war.

That said, no, the United States isn't "long in violation of the Budapest Memorandum", because it's only the alleged informal, unwritten annex to the Memorandum that may or may not actually even exist that limits joining NATO or providing NATO partner level military aid to Ukraine and the others. You'll find no such restriction in the actual terms of the Memorandum.

 

[Morphic Tide]

That said, no, the United States isn't "long in violation of the Budapest Memorandum", because it's only the alleged informal, unwritten annex to the Memorandum that may or may not actually even exist that limits joining NATO or providing NATO partner level military aid to Ukraine and the others. You'll find no such restriction in the actual terms of the Memorandum.

Talking about the third point on economic coersion:

3. The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the CSCE Final Act, to refrain from economic coercion designed to subordinate to their own interest the exercise by Ukraine of the rights inherent in its sovereignty and thus to secure advantages of any kind.

We have recordings of several people bragging about making aid money contingent on "quid pro quo" bullshit.

I would also not be surprised if the State Department training of "media experts" all of six months before the Euromaiden, who proceeded to use that exact training to coordinate it, tripped the sovereignty terms.

 

[Marduk]

Talking about the third point on economic coersion:

We have recordings of several people bragging about making aid money contingent on "quid pro quo" bullshit.

Firstly, Russia did it first in far more severe manner relevant to that point.

Why Did Ukraine's Yanukovych Give in to Russian Pressure on EU Deal? | Brookings

In an interview with PBS NewsHour's Judy Woodruff, Steven Pifer discusses the causes behind the mass protests that have erupted in Ukraine and explains the reasons why Ukrainian President Yanukovych chose not to sign the association agreement with the European Union.

www.brookings.edu

Secondly, learn to fucking read.

refrain from economic coercion designed to subordinate to their own interest the exercise by Ukraine of the rights inherent in its sovereignty

Was this particular coercion "designed to subordinate to their own interest the exercise by Ukraine of the rights inherent in its sovereignty"?
Read this sentence carefully, it doesn't ban "any quid pro quo bullshit", but a very specific and severe kind of coercion. Giving or not giving any money absolutely does not qualify, sovereignty of any country is not based on getting aid money from someone. What Russia did in the linked case and possibly several others, may well do qualify.
And let's not forget breaking the first fucking point of the memorandum in a completely shameless manner by swiping Crimea.
But cool that you bring up the Budapest Memorandum.

I would also not be surprised if the State Department training of "media experts" all of six months before the Euromaiden, who proceeded to use that exact training to coordinate it, tripped the sovereignty terms.

Good. Russia should not have been poisoning inconvenient Ukrainian presidential candidates if they think such interference is unacceptable.
Also hilarious how all the fan of western self-blaming and conspiracies regarding Maidan never mention the events preceding it, like Russia "reining in" their favored president by use of a friggin open trade war in retaliation for him getting too close to deals with the EU, which was a major reason for Maidan in the first place.
The irony of Russia possibly causing Maidan by reining in their buddy too bluntly should be pointed out more, and alco be considered prophetic of the only increasingly stupid and blunt moves they took after Maidan.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Red Effect did a breakdown on some videos of an alleged tank engagement that occurred back in October of 2022 at the Kherson Oblast.

It was originally reported as a Russian T-90 destroyed by artillery.



New video came out of the engagement and it turned out to be a Russian T-90S taken out point blank by a Ukrainian T-64. He goes into far more detail of everything, including the identification of the two vehicles and even what kind of shell the Ukrainians likely used to destroy the Russian T-90S.

 

[Carrot of Truth]

Red Effect did a breakdown on some videos of an alleged tank engagement that occurred back in October of 2022 at the Kherson Oblast.

It was originally reported as a Russian T-90 destroyed by artillery.



New video came out of the engagement and it turned out to be a Russian T-90S taken out point blank by a Ukrainian T-64. He goes into far more detail of everything, including the identification of the two vehicles and even what kind of shell the Ukrainians likely used to destroy the Russian T-90S.

Not sure why everyone acts like the T-90 is something special. The tank itself is just an upgraded T-72 that was intended to be a stop gap until the Soviets could build something that was a better match for the M1 Abrams but then the Soviet Union collapsed.

 

[Lord Sovereign]

Doesn’t matter how old it is, any tank is going to ruin your day at point blank range.

Shows how shit Russian doctrine is if one of their more advanced tanks was not only unsupported but effectively bumped into enemy armour.

 

[Zachowon]

That is sorts thier doctrine. Mass tanks and hope rhe infantry have the means to stay with them

 

[LordsFire]

Not sure why everyone acts like the T-90 is something special. The tank itself is just an upgraded T-72 that was intended to be a stop gap until the Soviets could build something that was a better match for the M1 Abrams but then the Soviet Union collapsed.

It's a big deal, because it's the best the Russians have meaningfully available, and if their best isn't doing very well...

 

[Jormungandr]

It's a big deal, because it's the best the Russians have meaningfully available, and if their best isn't doing very well...

"But, but the T-14!"

 

[ShadowArxxy]

"But, but the T-14!"

"But, but, that one Russian guy said the T-14 program isn't delayed at all, they decided to put it on hold because the T-90 is already so superior to Western tanks that the T-14 isn't really needed yet!"