Isn't Russia's very policy now perfect fit for the definition of revanchism, with the loss of a large part of Russian Empire's imperial conquests in process of the fall of the Soviet Union being the subject of the revenge?
Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)
- Thread starter ParadiseLost
- Start date
It's easier to deprogram someone from Scientology than it is to pierce the Russian propaganda machine on it's own soil.
And from what I've seen, a lot of the average Russian citizen is fine with imperialism and trying to retake any territory Russia/the USSR ever had even a marginal claim to; what they are not fine with is said invasions being handled incompetently.
So unless a person in Russia is openly and unabashedly critical of Putin's invasion of Ukraine and wants Russia to stop trying to invade their neighbors, they should be treated as an enemy that has only yet to be mobilized against Ukraine or the west.
Unlike Megadeath, I do not see this as a conflict where only Ukraine has the excuse to view Russian's as inhuman, nor do I see any use or advantage to trying to pretend the Russian populace doesn't want this war.
Russia has proven itself a threat to any and all of it's neighbors, the US included, and should be treated as an IRL Mordor that is not to be invaded, only thown out of the lands they've illegally occupied and contained to their own internationally recognized borders.
strunkenwhite
Well-known member
I know of no other nation besides Russia that use rape-as-NJP as doctrine for it's military; even fucking North Korea is not that bad.
Also the attacks on the grain silo's and shipments is a threat to massive parts of the poorer parts of the world. Russia is a threat to more than just Ukraine, or just it's immediate neighbors, and has proven time and again that no matter who is in charge, the Bear does not change how rabid it has become
The Russian population supports this war in general and domestic support for Putin is still high enough he will probably stay in control till he dies, despite the shit like the Wagner Insurrection/Mutiny. We cannot count on who ever replaces Putin to be any less belligerent than Putin, as well.
The conflict we are seeing now might end in 4 years from now, it might end in 14 or 40 years from now, depending on how stupid Russia and it's internal politics become and what happens with other potential 'spill over' points/transitions of power.
Preparing mentally for that, for a scenario of generational warfare against Russia/in the post-Russian space because of how fucked things are, or of treating a re-trenching Russia that is going full North Korea in terms of isolating itself from the west due to the sanctions on it and hostility to it, requires being able to keep Russian propagandizers and sympathizers from taking hold.
The Baltics are already expelling their 'Russian speaking minority' sleeper cells, because they understand the threat such things represent, and it would be smart for other nations to expel any Russian nationals who support Putin and/or the invasion of Ukraine.
Kindness and compassion does not work on the Russian state or it's goals, and the poisoned mindset that created the rabid Bear we face runs deep into the Russian people as a whole. The few 'good' Russian's are those who are actively fighting on the part of Ukraine, or helping Ukraine by sabotaging things inside Russia; anyone who supports Putin and the inasion should be viewed as orcs to be contained to Mordor.
willdelve4beer
Well-known member
I would note that Russia is at least an internal violent authoritarian state currently, and has both a history and likely future as a totalitarian one. As such I put zero faith into any opinion polls of the folks under Moscow's rule. In such a situation, where the wrong answer can easily lead to death, the rational and reasonable thing is to provide whatever answer you think is most likely to send whomever is pestering you away to bother someone else. You want to be unnoticeable, and unnoticed. Most of the populace of such states, as we've seen in the former Warsaw pact states, does not and never has supported their rulers. They are simply apathetic - too scared, cynical, or both to care, or to believe that they can make a difference if they do care.
That doesn't change our strategic requirements or approach going forward. But acting as if Putin is actually supported by his subjects is mistaken. They are at best indifferent. Even that presumes that Putin is calling the shots in Moscow. I would lay even money that he isn't actually even in control today, but is rather a figurehead propped up by the various internal factions to present a united front to outsiders while they fight over the spoils. Near as I can tell the most recent warlords phase of central eurasian history started last decade, and everyone has just been willfully overlooking that fact, because admitting that a nuclear power has basically fallen to squabbling mob factions is too nerve wracking to think about.
That doesn't change our strategic requirements or approach going forward. But acting as if Putin is actually supported by his subjects is mistaken. They are at best indifferent. Even that presumes that Putin is calling the shots in Moscow. I would lay even money that he isn't actually even in control today, but is rather a figurehead propped up by the various internal factions to present a united front to outsiders while they fight over the spoils. Near as I can tell the most recent warlords phase of central eurasian history started last decade, and everyone has just been willfully overlooking that fact, because admitting that a nuclear power has basically fallen to squabbling mob factions is too nerve wracking to think about.
strunkenwhite
Well-known member
Certainly the 30-year-old loss of various USSR countries to the west, as well as lost economic power, military might, Warsaw Pact influence, and even diplomatic cachet have been and will continue to be a thorn in the side of Russian nationalists. If anything, it's probably made worse by the troubles of the past decade, never mind how much that's the fault of the very revanchism it's fueling.
The thing is, those material issues can only be made worse, not better, as a result of the current conflict. Even if there is somehow some kind of result that can be reasonably called a Russian victory it could surely only be pyrrhic. Its Cold War military reputation has been blown up along with its Cold War military equipment. It is in the process of alienating African sympathizers who depend on the grain it's interdicting. Its oil production isn't being helped by the war and the associated sanctions, and to the extent that other sources of power production continue to gain market share it may never get back what it lost even if it could repair everything and replace all the skilled labor it sent to the front lines, which I'm not convinced it can.
The fact is, comebacks are harder when you're in the middle of a demographic decline that's due to causes you can't fix, and I don't see Russia fixing its. What does that leave? Well, other countries might have actual solutions, but I suspect Russia will just continue to slide into bitterness and vodka. It will still have oil and food to sell, and nukes to threaten with, and that will likely be enough to keep it more or less running as a political entity.
After Ukraine, I think Russia will be almost out of neighbors to bully. NATO is a non-starter. China's existence will likely be able to keep it from getting too frisky with Kazakhstan or Mongolia. What does that leave, Iran? I do wonder what the fate of Belarus will be, though.
Yeah, part of this mess is that Russian leadership, in addition to miscalculating the opposition of West and Ukraine, has made a massive error in estimating own abilities and their limits specifically. They thought they got screwed in the closing deal of the Cold War with how much of global influence they lost compared to what their economy, military and political influence justifies them having, while the cold, hard reality is that the deal they got was in fact quite generous to them, and they are having huge delusions of grandeur over a declining, industrially and technologically lagging, corruption ridden shithole that works so-so only on the basis of Middle East style resource economy boost and imports it allows.
Even a demographic fix wouldn't do much to solve these problems. A total reorganization of how the country works would, but few are willing to go that far, the current establishment in particular, as they would be one of the parts that have to go.
Assuming Ukraine will be able to advance far beyond the current front, let alone reclaim most / all of its territory is a BIG assumption to make, for all the talk of Russia's demographics being bad, Ukraine is even WORSE... and at 1/3rd the prewar population... which is also worse now.
I just don't see Ukraine having the manpower and/or willpower to be capable of sending a force truly capable of making a major advance... and suffering the commensurate casualties... and possibly failing because Russia has had a year to dig massive trenchworks and can muster an equal or even greater number of men and throwing them into the defense.
Their current attacks are like bee stings vs the bear, yeah they're annoying, but the bear i.e. Kremlin DNGAF, they just want the land and now with the 3 day fever dream long over, they're doing what they need to to hold that land like Stalin did with Karelia in 1939.
That's a problem for 5 or 20 years down the line if the war would continue that long.
Look at the force sizes and losses. They are nowhere near millions, which is what their demographic capacity is. Both sides are going to be equipment and logistics limited in terms of how much army they can deploy for the foreseeable future. Both could also technically throw an extra million or few of warm bodies forward with some kind of rags on them and some kind of boomstick in their hands, but that would be useless and pointless mass of warm bodies with no leadership, training, heavy equipment or high tech, so they don't.
Last edited:
strunkenwhite
Well-known member
I agree with Marduk. I brought up demographics as a long term economic problem, not a short term military one. Even as a long term problem, though, Ukraine will be better positioned as a competent European country than a slightly less gray-haired but hopelessly corrupt authoritarian nightmare.
Partially true,at least part of population do not care and would listen to anybody who take power.They are not enemies,only future subjects of another country.
But,you are right,that those who belibve in Moscov right to conqest are lost.They are and would be orks.
What Belaruss? according to Moscov,they are lesser russians,just like ukrainians.
Fun thing - in 19th century,when Russia still existed,they treated us/Poland/ the same way.
And other slavic nations,too.Like one of their poets say "All slavic rivers must go to russian sea"
Forget which one.As usual.
Aaron Fox
Well-known member
That heavily depends on who takes over in the aftermath. Given that reality has been skimming/taking more ideas from fiction than usual, we can't bank on that assumption.
No Gonzalo Lira couldn't flee to Russia or Belarus with legislation that's been recently discussed in those countries.
Russia considers forced chemical castration of paedophiles
A pro-Putin political party in Moscow has produced new legislation which is under review by the government.
Belarus faces chemical castration of pedophiles - Nord News
Proposed changes to the Criminal Code foresee coercive treatment of child offenders, says the Public Prosecutor's Office
nord.news
Still gotta see how this may affect Scott Ritter in the future. From the titling in the article, it says paedophileS which might imply they're allowed to have one in country presumably. This would also explain why Scott Ritter was so adamant in stating Gonzalo Lira was a compromised Ukrainian asset however.
I don't recall Deadpill being accused of that and a quick internet search just reveals the Ritter thing... which is about Scott Ritter.
You might be right. I think Lazerpig mentioned Gonzalo talking about how teenagers or whatever have tighter... Uhhh
but that was awhile ago if true I suppose.And Gonzalo, as pointed out above did refuse to collaborate with Scott Ritter over his pedophile convictions IIRC.
Considering how much those two loathe each other, I could easily see LP's interpretation of any 'teenagers' comment to be 13... and if younger that's fine too... while Gonzalo means over the age of consent whatever that is... or was reminiscing about when he was a teen or something.You might be right. I think Lazerpig mentioned Gonzalo talking about how teenagers or whatever have tighter... Uhhh
And Gonzalo, as pointed out above did refuse to collaborate with Scott Ritter over his pedophile convictions IIRC.
Another attempt by Russia to woo people to settle in Russia, this time with 'AfroVillages' that are apparently meant to cater to displaced South African Boers who convert to Russian Orthodoxy.
Here's a semi misleading tweet about it.
And an archived article from Russia Today International.
The plan is to resettle three thousand Boer families to the Moscow and Tver regions, with an initial pilot program of 200 settlers learning Russian via an online program started this September. If successful, they plan on expanding the operation farther across Russia!
Here's a semi misleading tweet about it.
And an archived article from Russia Today International.
The plan is to resettle three thousand Boer families to the Moscow and Tver regions, with an initial pilot program of 200 settlers learning Russian via an online program started this September. If successful, they plan on expanding the operation farther across Russia!
Poor Boers.They never did anytching very bad,why punish them so much ?
Buba
A total creep
Nothing new - German army in 1914 comes to mind.
Aaron Fox
Well-known member
... is this lie still flying around? The British propaganda machine largely manufactured that to demonize the Germans. Remember, the Germans were the ones that built the rules of war framework, and the Germans in WW1 were still within that framework. This was why everyone not on the Eastern Front was flabbergasted at the Holocaust during WW2.