Tiamat
I've seen the future...
I've read some bad fanfiction before, but this is just hilarious.
Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)
- Thread starter ParadiseLost
- Start date
I've read some bad fanfiction before, but this is just hilarious.
strunkenwhite
Well-known member
c'mon bro, Russia never has and to all appearances never will care about conserving manpower in its wars. I'm reminded of a novel where a character commented, "In both world wars, the Russian way of putting out a fire was to pile bodies on it till it smothered."
To be fair, Ukraine isn't getting the casualty ratios that it really needs to win. If Ukraine wants to win, absent something fundamental changing on either side, then it must turn it into a war of maneuver where the Ukrainian forces can get ten to one or better exchange rates.
If Ukraine can manage a break through this campaign season and push to the Sea of Avoz, isolating Crimea, then they would be on a path to winning. If Russia holds though? Then Ukraine is in a pretty bad position.
Eventually Russia will sort out their logistics issues to the point where they are at least good enough and the battlefield will start teaching the Russian survivors the lessons that the Russian military appears to have forgotten.
If Russia isn't broken this year then they will increase their defenses and breaking them next year will be more difficult. Russia will also move forward even more artillery and eventually Russia will be ready for a large scale push.
If Ukraine can manage a break through this campaign season and push to the Sea of Avoz, isolating Crimea, then they would be on a path to winning. If Russia holds though? Then Ukraine is in a pretty bad position.
Eventually Russia will sort out their logistics issues to the point where they are at least good enough and the battlefield will start teaching the Russian survivors the lessons that the Russian military appears to have forgotten.
If Russia isn't broken this year then they will increase their defenses and breaking them next year will be more difficult. Russia will also move forward even more artillery and eventually Russia will be ready for a large scale push.
Tiamat
I've seen the future...
Respectfully, some assumptions are being made here. Assuming Russia will eventually sort out their logistics issues when Russia has historically had issues with logistics (not really a strong suit of theirs), while said logistics is already compromised by corruption and incompetence within a kleptocratic state, while not impossible is a bit of a reach.
Also, "Russia will be ready for a large scale push" next year if not broken? What forces will they have to do a large scale push, with what exactly? It's not exactly confidence-inspiring for the Russians if they're having to pull T-62's and now T-55 tanks out of mothballs which are in poor shape, and welding heavy weapons on to MT-LB's to act as heavy weapon carriers. Also bear in mind Russia's under embargo, their economy is under pressure and many of the high tech components, IE microchips and processors they need for more sophisticated weapons they can't get from the West, which leaves them to buy whatever they can get from the Chinese.
At the rate of losses Russia has experienced with men, especially their experienced veterans, plus losses of materials, vehicles, heavy weapons, etc. they're going to likely need close to a decade to rebuild all of that, it doesn't just happen overnight.
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More than a decade -- I'm honestly surprised they're not sniffing around African conflict zones for buying back Soviet-made weapons and ammunition.
Russia is in such poor shape over all that it makes posts like @AnimalNoodles' look like parodies.
Russian logistics only really need to be good enough to keep the front supplied with food, fuel, bullets, and artillery shells.
Russia isn't, and won't be fighting this war like most of the western world has gotten used to thinking wars are fought since Gulf War 1. Russia tried that in the very beginning and got smashed hard.
WW1 style meat grinder defensive lines with offensive pushes being done by men marching on foot basically right behind a constant rain of artillery is how Russia will fight this war going forward.
When Russia moves into a territory the population will be genocided. The men killed, the women basically turned into breeding factories back in Russia proper, and the kids kidnapped and sent to orphanage camps in basically Siberia to be indoctrinated.
Power plants, dams, and any other infrastructure that Russia doesn't see a tactical or strategic advantage in keeping intact will be destroyed. Farms won't be maintained.
If Ukraine can't turn it into a maneuver war and really seize the initiative (and keep it) then they will run into a Russian meat grinder that simply will not stop.
This isn't a war that Russia is fighting for anything that is in Ukraine. They are fighting it solely for gross geographic features with any other gains being incidental. And Russia is already suffering the economic and diplomatic damage from a major war, short of active NATO military opposition there really isn't much of anything that anyone can do to make things harder on Russia. Russia is already committing the war crimes, operating the killing fields, kidnapping the children, blowing up dams, using chemical weapons, and threatening nuclear reactors.
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So the question becomes, will the "west" (US, UK, or France really) risk going nuclear over Ukraine. If the answer is no (and it very much is) then the war in Ukraine becomes a question of the Russian resource base against the military age fighting population of Ukraine.
There is no potential peace settlement or diplomatic resolution to this war. Replacing Putin wouldn't matter because the entire Russian establishment (including the opposition leader sitting in a Russian prison at the moment) thinks the war should be fought to victory basically regardless of the cost so a leadership replacement won't materially change things.
Russia is, and will, resort to what are basically WW1/WW2 tactics and fight the war in that manner.
Except Russia is running out of artillery shells (buying from China/Iran with quality being questionable at best), vehicles (they've lost scores of valuable helicopters, vehicles, and artillery which can't be easily replaced -- they're using T55's, for fucks sake!), weapons, equipment (Russians are being given Airsoft and paintball equipment), food, supplies ("Antibiotics? Bandages? What are they? Don't worry, comrade! These Great Patriotic War hospital beds still work just fine!"), fuel, and even manpower (more and more of the shrinking pool of fighting aged men are dodging). There's no point in creating supply chains for supplies that don't exist.
They can't create a meatgrinder because they don't have the men to create the meatgrinder. Russia is in shambles.
Abducting children and destroying infrastructure is something Russian forces are doing though, the fucking orcs.
They can't create a meatgrinder because they don't have the men to create the meatgrinder. Russia is in shambles.
Abducting children and destroying infrastructure is something Russian forces are doing though, the fucking orcs.
AnimalNoodles
Well-known member
Russia's doctrine in this war as laid out by Gerasimov has been quite consistent. Use ordnance to avoid casualties. Establish a defensive position with a buffer zone and when attacked closely, withdraw to higher ground or a fortified position and hit the attackers with artillery. Then counterattack.
The Ukrainians OTOH use their conscripts as literal cannon fodder, focring them to hold positions no matter what.
LordsFire
Internet Wizard
This is literally nonsense.
Even Russian sources on the ground say that they are being treated like cannon fodder, that they've sustained ruinous losses in infantry rushes against prepared Ukrainian positions, repeatedly in the same locations with the same tactics.
The only sources claiming the Ukrainians have been throwing away manpower recklessly are Russian state popaganda, who also claim things like having shot down more aircraft than the Ukrainians have, destroyed NATO equipment that hasn't even arrived yet, etc, etc.
The current Ukrainian offensive is not going as well as they would like, but by all reports it's still going better than anything the Russians have managed since the first few months of the war.
First,not russia,becouse they died long ago,vut kgbstan.
Second - they supposed to take Kiev in weeks.How they are winning now?
Third - USA DO NOT SUPPORT UKRAINE.At least,they do not want them win.Becouse,if they REALLY want Ukraine victory,they would send 500 Abrams ,500 Bradleys,and 200 F.16 year ago,and war would be finished by now.
Unfortunatelly,they want deal with Moscov - and they would get it,,when Putin friends kill him.
So,long live comrade colonel,becouse when you croak,USA democrats would gave us to Moscov for notching.Again.
P.S Postsoviets have shitty air forces,so their lack od success do not mean anytching.If USA failed like that,you would be right.
It won't stop until it will fall apart. The Wagner mess demonstrates how fragile their system is behind the facade of unrelenting fanaticism and unity. At any moment it may seem stable, and 3 days later we may discuss if Moscow will fall to another coup or not.
As we have discussed before, i think that's just theorizing of western analysts, they get paid for that.
From what pieces of info came out of Russia, it's an easy expansionist robbery gone wrong.
As we see, Russia is in no shape to go on grand, multi decade campaigns to secure geographic features,. That's more than a crime, it's a grand mistake considering that Russia started the war on own initiative, without questioning the theoretical wisdom of doing that in the first place by conflicting it with the reality that dramatically lack the kind of political and military moves in the West which would justify such desperate long shot counter-moves from Russia.
On the other hand, it makes more sense if the establishment just made a classic blunder, they had some domestic and elite malaise after the COVID economic fallout, and so the leadership got a classic good idea fairy shot into their heads - we know what will help with everything, a time honored classic, a short, victorious war! Spoils and history book entries to the elites, glory of the victory for the masses to forget for a moment that they are poor people in Russia, humiliation for the arrogant, preaching clowns in the West who won't do shit, hah, it's going to be over before they manage to decide to do shit even in the unlikely scenario it turns out these cowardly, weak fat cats have the guts for it.
And they had just the right opportunity prepared. But then things went wrong because Russian established thought it had far better cards than it did, while Ukraine had better cards than they thought it had.
If the rates go on and remain stable (very big assumption) for decade or three, it could be what settles the war. Both countries have military age male populations in millions, and losses in low to mid hundreds of thousands depending on side and who you ask after one and a half years of war, we can do the math.
But i'd be pretty sure other factors will decide the outcome before that happens.
Well, that's definitely what people would call their "public opinion". I would not bet on that many of them having this as their "private opinion". Your belief in the ultrapatriotism of Russian elites is quite contrasting to the beliefs of Russia's far right regarding their elites and many other things we know about them.
Indeed. Not by choice, but because those are the ways of fighting they are left with.
So, logistics only matter of you can keep them moving to the troops, and that gets longer and longer due to the fact that any ammo close gets destroyed by long range munitions....as we have plenty of videos of.
Now, sure the russians have a lot, but as we have learned from the recent footage and what we have learned from representatives.
NATO equipment is making that personal gap lower, because it is more survivable.
the Russian tanks and crew die to RPGs and Mines.
leapord crews have survived 2 of the 6 leapords in the Zap front were disabled by mines and RPGs. Getting repaired.
All of this by the way, is what has been released by Ukraine and those supporting them.
not even what is going on behind the scenes
add in the two biggest amd most successful leaders of the Russian forces are no longer on the field
Bakhmut is in danger of being captured by Ukrainians now.
So there is that
Snake island was reclaimed and on the 500th day of the conflict Zelensky visited it.
So I think it is going fine.
Chart Showing Documented Heavy Equipment Losses of Both Sides on the Zaporizhzhia Front.
New German Military Age Package Announced.
First Documented Loss of a Polish-delivered PT-91 Twardy Main Battle Tank on the Zaporizhzhia Front. Also a modernized Czech T-72EA was reportedly lost along with an M113 APC.
Russian Zoopark Counter Battery Radar Destroyed by a GMLRS Strike on the Zaporizhzhia Front.
Maps of the Front and Contested Changes and Territorial Gains/Losses Since June 8th.
Two alleged Ukrainian Partisans Sentenced to Twenty Years in Prison by a Russian Court for the Fatal Car Bomb Attack on a Collaborator named Vitaliy Buliuk who was made the Deputy Governor of the occupied Kherson Oblast. Buliuk was wounded in the attack while his driver was killed.
Russia sentences Ukrainians to over 20 years for partisan attack on Kherson collaborator
Yuriy Domanchuk and Vitaliy Skakun were seized by the Russian invaders and illegally ‘tried’ under Russian law for allegedly trying to kill a Ukrainian traitor on Ukrainian territorykhpg.org
if Ukraine wins the war they will most likely return home as heroes.
Or suffer from an "accident"/"unfortunate altercation" in prison.
war kind of sucks.
In tsar times it was made in more "funny" way - they do not want gave death penalty to show how good they are,so instead they flogged poor dudes.
2.000 times or more.
Suprise,suprise - prisoners later die....but it was not death penalty !
strunkenwhite
Well-known member
Others have done a good job so I won't belabor those points, but I think I do have a couple thoughts that haven't yet been voiced here.
One: even if Russian logistics were up to the task of supplying food, fuel, bullets, and artillery shells (spoiler: no), that isn't enough. It also has to be up to the task of supplying and maintaining the equipment that fires those bullets and shells. And we have reason to believe it is getting worse in both quality and quantity on that front.
Two: Yes, but here we have to remember that WW1 ended in disaster for Russia, and WW2 might have gone the same way without Lend/Lease. And L/L is now on the other side.
Lord Sovereign
The resident Britbong
Oi.
The Imperial Russian Army carried out the Brusilov Offensive. Do not mention them in the same post as the horde of imbeciles in Ukraine right now.
Indeed.Russians basically broken A-H armies,and if there were no germans there,front would collapse.
Russia was Poland enemy,but they had their good sides,too.
Even soviets at least knew how to win on USA suppies killing half of their own army.
Current neosoviets....thhey are pathetic.
P.S They are KGB,so,theorically,there could be KGB hidden army made of robots and apemans waiting in hidden cities for RIGHT HOUR. to take entire world.
Not very probable,but possible.And no,it is not joke.KGB is capable of shit like that.
