Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

[paulobrito]

Is it not a question of technological capability - is it a question of how much costs? Hint - a lot more than the gas imported from Russia.
The big (and only) advantage of buying gas from Russia is cost. Yes, can be replaced, but every single one of the alternatives costs a lot more.
And, after some point/value - turns the EU economy not competitive in the global market.
Oh, btw, changing from one type to another - after 20+years of investment on the (still) current provider, takes a lot of time and costs a lot.

Yes, ultimately, the EU can be 100% independent from Russia - but not now, and that only after a lot of very costly investments in the alternatives. That takes between 5 to 10 years to provide results. So - you have 5 to 10 years of very costly and limited energy - that fuck your economy - and during that time you need to invest a lot in alternatives, to get a solution. And said solution still is a lot costlier than the actual one, reducing the competitiveness of the EU economy on the Global Market. Great perspectives for the EU.
And you wonder why the current leaders don't tell the truth to the people?

 

[PsihoKekec]

Or in the Cold War.

Western Germany started it's reliance on Soviet/Russian NG during the Cold War. First purchase of Soviet oil was in the 1953 and the first purchase of natural gas was in 1969. The pipelines that cross Ukraine and Poland towards West were mostly laid during Soviet times.
Contrary to popular belief the natural gas is not just used for heating, it's crucial in many industrial processes. It is also use in natural gas power plants, whose main role due to their adaptability of the yield of their production is to cover fluctuations in elektro distribution network due to variability of consumption or production (especially in countries doing green energy idiocy like Germany), without them you would get constant stream of localized blackouts, as coal and nuke powerplants are slower at changing their production.

It's also no surprise that while USA is pushing the EU to stop buying Russian oil and NG, they don't plan to do that themselves. The plan is obviously to resell the Russian oil and NG to EU countries at a massive markup. Thus Russia gets paid, USA gets paid and EU politicians get to pat themselves in shoulders.

 

[paulobrito]

This war has two objectives - one is to weaken Russia, and the other is to destroy the EU economy, which has grown too much and permits the EU to defy the US. With the EU economy severely damaged, they are forced to return to more docile vassalage to the US. Ukraine is just the means for that. Just look to the transcript of Nuland's call in 2014 - the well knows 'fuck the EU' call.

 

[Marduk]

The big (and only) advantage of buying gas from Russia is cost. Yes, can be replaced, but every single one of the alternatives costs a lot more.

That's absolute bullshit and i've already linked why:

https://www.euractiv.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2019/12/F.Umbach-The-myth-of-cheap-Russian-gas-1.pdf

Yes, ultimately, the EU can be 100% independent from Russia - but not now, and that only after a lot of very costly investments in the alternatives. That takes between 5 to 10 years to provide results. So - you have 5 to 10 years of very costly and limited energy - that fuck your economy - and during that time you need to invest a lot in alternatives, to get a solution. And said solution still is a lot costlier than the actual one, reducing the competitiveness of the EU economy on the Global Market. Great perspectives for the EU.
And you wonder why the current leaders don't tell the truth to the people?

So, nothing new? Except instead of having costly investments in switching infrastructure while paying extra for energy in the name of green idiocy, they would have costly investments in switching infrastructure while paying extra for energy in the name of cracking down on Russian warmongering.

Western Germany started it's reliance on Soviet/Russian NG during the Cold War. First purchase of Soviet oil was in the 1953 and the first purchase of natural gas was in 1969. The pipelines that cross Ukraine and Poland towards West were mostly laid during Soviet times.
Contrary to popular belief the natural gas is not just used for heating, it's crucial in many industrial processes. It is also use in natural gas power plants, whose main role due to their adaptability of the yield of their production is to cover fluctuations in elektro distribution network due to variability of consumption or production (especially in countries doing green energy idiocy like Germany), without them you would get constant stream of localized blackouts, as coal and nuke powerplants are slower at changing their production.

You are mistaking use for reliance.

What happens if Russia shuts off gas supplies to Europe?

Germany, the biggest consumer of Russian gas, can also import from Norway, the Netherlands, Britain and Denmark via pipelines.

www.euronews.com

Europe relies on Russia for around 40 per cent of its natural gas. Most comes through pipelines including Yamal-Europe, which crosses Belarus and Poland to Germany, and Nord Stream 1, which goes directly to Germany, and via Ukraine.

What part of the gas is used for power and heat, and what part is used for chemical processes that actually need gas? The obvious solution is to shift the other 60% towards areas where gas is necessary, and replace it with other alternatives in the areas where it's just heat or power.

It's also no surprise that while USA is pushing the EU to stop buying Russian oil and NG, they don't plan to do that themselves. The plan is obviously to resell the Russian oil and NG to EU countries at a massive markup. Thus Russia gets paid, USA gets paid and EU politicians get to pat themselves in shoulders.

FACT SHEET: United States Bans Imports of Russian Oil, Liquefied Natural Gas, and Coal | The White House

Today, President Biden will sign an Executive Order (E.O.) to ban the import of Russian oil, liquefied natural gas, and coal to the United States – a significant action with widespread bipartisan support that will further deprive President Putin of the economic resources he uses to continue his...

www.whitehouse.gov

You must be mistaking India for USA.

This war has two objectives - one is to weaken Russia, and the other is to destroy the EU economy, which has grown too much and permits the EU to defy the US. With the EU economy severely damaged, they are forced to return to more docile vassalage to the US. Ukraine is just the means for that. Just look to the transcript of Nuland's call in 2014 - the well knows 'fuck the EU' call.

As the previous poster explained nicely, if that was the plan, the most important actors in it are the leaders of the EU themselves, because they are the biggest proponents of the economically damaging green policies, that already were economically damaging even before the war. Mysteriously those leaders are also the biggest whiners about "US vassalage". Yes, we all agree on calling it green idiocy for a reason. Their greatest areas of defying the US are wanting more feminist foreign policy, more reliance on Russia and China, more socialism (especially eyeing US corporation's money, which offends Nuland&co particularly), less military spending, and more mandatory green idiocy for everyone.
Or in other words, they are absolute keks and many right wingers in the EU would be surprised to agree with Nuland in this case.
Its as if the EU wants to cut itself and oppressive America took away its knife sharpener so it has to do it with a dull knife now.

 

[D4rk0w1]

If Germany is going to wean itself off of Russian NG what are chances they are going back to Coal liquification or other Synthetic fuels? Or are they planning on just making another middleman and pretend that it isn't Russian NG?

Also, I stopped playing attention to this conflict in favor of my country's May 9th Election and as a Civil servant I have to take care about the Election aftermath. Now that I'm back paying attention to this, why did the entire Donbass war try hard to reenact the WWI trench warfare with additional Missile artillery this time.

If you ignore the dead people I think this is the best Artillery porn I watched.

 

[PsihoKekec]

You must be mistaking India for USA.

Sec. 5. The Secretary of the Treasury, in consultation with the Secretary of State, is hereby authorized to take such actions, including the promulgation of rules and regulations, and to employ all powers granted to the President by IEEPA, as may be necessary to carry out the purposes of this order. The Secretary of the Treasury may, consistent with applicable law, redelegate any of these functions within the Department of the Treasury. All executive departments and agencies of the United States shall take all appropriate measures within their authority to implement this order.

DoT still allows the purchases made under existing contracts, so for now this embargo only prevents increase of purchases of Russian energents, not that media will report it.

 

[Arch Dornan]

Anyone know this ex colonel and the Schiller Institute?

Is it not a question of technological capability - is it a question of how much costs? Hint - a lot more than the gas imported from Russia.

I know metal imports are included especially uranium.

 

[WolfBear]

When do you think that the last surviving veteran of the Russo-Ukrainian War will pass away? I suspect sometime in the 2110s since one could have been born in 2004 and serving in either the Russian or Ukrainian military right now, in which case one would "only" need to live to age 105 in order to see the 2110s. Most people, let alone most men, obviously don't live to age 105+, but out of hundreds of thousands of men, an extremely tiny number of individuals might very well do this.

 

[ATP]

LOL - the Iraq war is a very easy war - something not on the same scale as the Ukrainian one. Any decent student of war knows that.
Making gas from coal - costs how much more than the actual price?
Please - if you can't offer anything more than ideology, stay quiet.
Oh, wait - I forget that's you.

Easy war? just like on Ukraine now.Tank country,which should be easily taken,if kgbstan knew how to fight.
And with current prices of gas it is still good deal.

P.S i still remember that you are you,so i undarstandt why to you must love kgbstan.Hate for USA mixed with memories of old glory and belifs in long dead Mother Russia.
Pity,that they never occupied your country,nobody then would have any faith in Moscov.

 

[paulobrito]

You really love to show your ignorance.

 

[ATP]

You really love to show your ignorance.

Nope,i undarstandt why you are longing for senpai Putin.Good,that he never win - becouse in that case,when we meet in gulag,i would say "see,i told you"

 

[paulobrito]

Nope,i undarstandt why you are longing for senpai Putin.Good,that he never win - becouse in that case,when we meet in gulag,i would say "see,i told you"

See - another demonstration of ignorance. Unlike you, I'm neutral in this war. And frankly, comparing Iraq to Ukraine, Iraq's military to Ukraine's military show how little you know about wars in general.

 

[paulobrito]

In no particular order:
The Iraq Army is one of the worst in the world / the Ukraine Army has been trained from 2014 (8 years) by NATO
Ukraine's Army received tens of thousands of state of the art ATGMs and thousands of MANPADs.
Ukraine's Army received continuous real time ELINT and SIGINT from NATO
Ukraine's Army receives a continuous supply of all kind of weapons SAM's, arty, ATGMs, MANPADs, etc and ammo from NATO
If you look at the maps of Ukraine and Iraq, you see that the terrain is completely different - while one is basically desert, the other is full of small locations and a dense network of roads, small villages, etc - lots of places that benefit the defender.
Ukraine is much bigger than Iraq - 603k km2 v 348k km2.
Unlike Iraq, the war in Ukraine started in the 'mud season' that severely limited the movement of mechanized forces.
Ukraine's receives continuous military, political and financial support from NATO and other nations, while Iraq stand alone against a coalition of nations.
And so on and so on.
So, please don't compare Ukraine war with Iraq war - the differences are abysmal.

 

[Arch Dornan]

In no particular order:
The Iraq Army is one of the worst in the world / the Ukraine Army has been trained from 2014 (8 years) by NATO
Ukraine's Army received tens of thousands of state of the art ATGMs and thousands of MANPADs.
Ukraine's Army received continuous real time ELINT and SIGINT from NATO
Ukraine's Army receives a continuous supply of all kind of weapons SAM's, arty, ATGMs, MANPADs, etc and ammo from NATO
If you look at the maps of Ukraine and Iraq, you see that the terrain is completely different - while one is basically desert, the other is full of small locations and a dense network of roads, small villages, etc - lots of places that benefit the defender.
Ukraine is much bigger than Iraq - 603k km2 v 348k km2.
Unlike Iraq, the war in Ukraine started in the 'mud season' that severely limited the movement of mechanized forces.
Ukraine's receives continuous military, political and financial support from NATO and other nations, while Iraq stand alone against a coalition of nations.
And so on and so on.
So, please don't compare Ukraine war with Iraq war - the differences are abysmal.

I forgot those factors.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Anyone know this ex colonel and the Schiller Institute?

There's a thread about Colonel Black on The Sietch. He was alleging that there was going to be a military coup of President Trump backed by (former) Secretary of Defense Mattis and some others. I think most of the links have been taken down lol but there's still a video on YouTube on it.

The Schiller Institute is a Think Tank of the 'LaRouche' Movement. Lyndon LaRouche being a 'fringe' left wing/Marxist/Labor Movement that's held all sorts of interesting opinions, beliefs, conspiracies and positions over the years.

I personally would avoid utilizing either of them as a source of commentary.

 

[Arch Dornan]

There's a thread about Colonel Black on The Sietch. He was alleging that there was going to be a military coup of President Trump backed by (former) Secretary of Defense Mattis and some others. I think most of the links have been taken down lol but there's still a video on YouTube on it.

The Schiller Institute is a Think Tank of the 'LaRouche' Movement. Lyndon LaRouche being a 'fringe' left wing/Marxist/Labor Movement that's held all sorts of interesting opinions, beliefs, conspiracies and positions over the years.

I personally would avoid utilizing either of them as a source of commentary.

They all add up the lies and the half truths as commentators gives their own takes but one thing for sure as the war keeps going the bill and the dead keep piling up.

Someone's going to break.

I use the Duran as my main.

 

[WolfBear]

Russia ally Kazakhstan refuses to recognise Donetsk, Luhansk as 'independent republics'

Kazakhstan has refused to recognise Donetsk and Luhansk as independent republics.

www.indiatoday.in

There's a thread about Colonel Black on The Sietch. He was alleging that there was going to be a military coup of President Trump backed by (former) Secretary of Defense Mattis and some others. I think most of the links have been taken down lol but there's still a video on YouTube on it.

The Schiller Institute is a Think Tank of the 'LaRouche' Movement. Lyndon LaRouche being a 'fringe' left wing/Marxist/Labor Movement that's held all sorts of interesting opinions, beliefs, conspiracies and positions over the years.

I personally would avoid utilizing either of them as a source of commentary.

Ironic that there was no coup against Trump but there was a pro-Trump coup attempt in 2020-2021.

 

[ATP]

See - another demonstration of ignorance. Unlike you, I'm neutral in this war. And frankly, comparing Iraq to Ukraine, Iraq's military to Ukraine's military show how little you know about wars in general.

You mean,fact that Iraqui army in 2003 was considered as better then ukrainian in 2022? and that kgbstan failed to achieve almost anything?
Yes,we could compare USA to Russia - if USA invaded Canada,failed to win after 3 and half months,and capture ontreal after 3 month siege.All becouse canadians get russians missiles.

Of course,it is still possibility that it is all secret plot between Putin and Biden handlers,and they cosplay at war to let democrats win elections and putin kill his army,which otherwise could mutiny and save what is left of Mother Russia.

 

[Bacle]

Ironic that there was no coup against Trump but there was a pro-Trump coup attempt in 2020-2021.

No there wasn't. Trump never tried a coup, what happened at the capital was instigated by agent provocateurs in the crowd who were caught on video; particularly one Ray Epps.

 

[WolfBear]

No there wasn't. Trump never tried a coup, what happened at the capital was instigated by agent provocateurs in the crowd who were caught on video; particularly one Ray Epps.

I was talking about him attempting to get Mike Pence to throw out some US states' electoral votes on extrmely dubious grounds.