Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

Heavy bombers - B-52, Tu-95, And the most recent B-1, B-2, and Tu-160 normally as Zachowon said, are cruise missile carriers. Only when the other side has no air defense at all, they can be used for the not glamorous but still very effective carpet-bombing job. You can add the smaller but still in that group, Tu-22M3x.
Carpet Bombing these days can be done with dumb bombs, PGMs, or even a combination of these with or without thermobaric ones.

Hint - you don't want to be on the received side of such missions.
 
I wouldn't go so far as to say that Putin needs nuclear weapons to take the Dnieper River line, but his other option is to send waver after wave of troops until he grinds down the Ukrainian military. Given what I've seen in regards to Russian history, that is probably what he's going to favor. Russia has historically suffered massive losses in wars and most analysts seem to agree that Putin would probably need losses approaching a million before the Russian people begin to revolt.

Sralin could do that - with enough consprict and lend-lease from USA,which gave him truck,trains,food and ammo.
Putin do not have 20 millions of fresh bodies he could throw at meatgrinder,and lend-lease is helping Ukraine.
With sending another wave Putin would take Marjunpol and Donbass,but nothing more.

P.S Jesus loves you!
 
Sralin could do that - with enough consprict and lend-lease from USA,which gave him truck,trains,food and ammo.
Putin do not have 20 millions of fresh bodies he could throw at meatgrinder,and lend-lease is helping Ukraine.
With sending another wave Putin would take Marjunpol and Donbass,but nothing more.

P.S Jesus loves you!

As things stand, I don't think the Russians are done yet. They still have a great deal more resources they can draw upon. From what I've seen, the general takeaway here is that Russia can't keep going because it isn't politically viable and Putin is only doing this because he's an asshole. However, what most analysts believe is that Russia views this issue as an existential threat. Therefore, there is every reason to believe that Russia is going to escalate the situation, using whatever sort of manpower and hardware they can bring to bear. From what I understand, that's a lot of crappy Soviet-era weapon systems and a lot of expendable Russian men. So far the expectation is that it won't be pretty, but Russia is still capable of overwhelming Ukraine.
 
As things stand, I don't think the Russians are done yet. They still have a great deal more resources they can draw upon. From what I've seen, the general takeaway here is that Russia can't keep going because it isn't politically viable and Putin is only doing this because he's an asshole. However, what most analysts believe is that Russia views this issue as an existential threat. Therefore, there is every reason to believe that Russia is going to escalate the situation, using whatever sort of manpower and hardware they can bring to bear. From what I understand, that's a lot of crappy Soviet-era weapon systems and a lot of expendable Russian men. So far the expectation is that it won't be pretty, but Russia is still capable of overwhelming Ukraine.
Russia doesn't have the 'expendable' manpower they had under Soviet times, and part of the reason the war is happening now is because Russia was only going to have fewer draftable people and fewer contract troops going forward due to the demo crunch.

Putin cannot just rely on 'human wave' tactics to win the day, and if that is what the Russians do, it will destroy the Russian military's ability to field much manpower anytime in the mid-term future.

I think Russia's ability to make war is being drastically cut by the santions (cannot build new tanks, and now cannot even make new Buk SAMs due to lack of supplies) and Zelenski has not given up on getting the Donbass and Crimea back as it's becomes apparent Russian military strength has nothing left short of nukes that could actually reverse their losses in Ukraine.
 
China looking at this and thinking - well prices of raw materials from Russia are going down, and quantities available going higher in the next years, and they are also going to buy more things from us. Profit.
That's what a pragmatic gov does, not silly things.
They already are.
 
Russia doesn't have the 'expendable' manpower they had under Soviet times, and part of the reason the war is happening now is because Russia was only going to have fewer draftable people and fewer contract troops going forward due to the demo crunch.

Putin cannot just rely on 'human wave' tactics to win the day, and if that is what the Russians do, it will destroy the Russian military's ability to field much manpower anytime in the mid-term future.

I think Russia's ability to make war is being drastically cut by the santions (cannot build new tanks, and now cannot even make new Buk SAMs due to lack of supplies) and Zelenski has not given up on getting the Donbass and Crimea back as it's becomes apparent Russian military strength has nothing left short of nukes that could actually reverse their losses in Ukraine.
We'll see. From what I can find the muddy season isn't over yet, so they're relying on bite and hold tactics to improve their positions for a breakout as soon as the ground dries up and to wear down the Ukrainians. Apparently it is forcing the Ukies to counterattack against Izyum, which failed with heavy losses. At this point they're focusing their fires on the decisive battle area, which will likely also net them a bundle of captured equipment if/when it works, as well as trying to minimize casualties in the process. Hence the slowness.

IIRC this video talks about the ground conditions slowing Russian operations in the Donbass:


Though I've also read that the Ukies are using maneuver defensive tactics, which require slow going with plenty of fire support and drone coverage to counter effectively to keep casualties down. So it looks like rather than AFVs being the way to win it will be airpower, drones, electronic warfare, and artillery that will decide this, which mostly favors Russia. If they do end up declaring war and mobilizing fully that will probably be to deal with the follow operations after the Donbass is cleared depending on what Ukraine decides to do with negotiations after that, since trying to clear the rest of the East bank of the Dnieper and perhaps seizing Odessa would require more manpower and industrial mobilization for the war effort.

SAMs aren't really necessary due to the lack of significant Ukrainian air force units left and MANPADs or autocannons can be used against drones and helicopters. I highly doubt they can't build new tanks even with the sanctions, as all sorts of those predictions have turned out to be false. I remember back a month ago when they were only supposed to have ammo for 3 days left.
 
Heavy bombers - B-52, Tu-95, And the most recent B-1, B-2, and Tu-160 normally as Zachowon said, are cruise missile carriers. Only when the other side has no air defense at all, they can be used for the not glamorous but still very effective carpet-bombing job. You can add the smaller but still in that group, Tu-22M3x.
Carpet Bombing these days can be done with dumb bombs, PGMs, or even a combination of these with or without thermobaric ones.

Hint - you don't want to be on the received side of such missions.
Tje B1 amd B2 cam be used in SAM depending in the situations
 
Tje B1 amd B2 cam be used in SAM depending in the situations
Everything can be used in a SAM environment - at least once. That depends on how desperate you are/how sophisticated both sides are. Is not popular, i wonder why.
Been there, done that - been shot-down once - not fun at all. Still have the scars and nightmares, decades after.
 
Everything can be used in a SAM environment - at least once. That depends on how desperate you are/how sophisticated both sides are. Is not popular, i wonder why.
Been there, done that - been shot-down once - not fun at all. Still have the scars and nightmares, decades after.
The B 1 and 2 were made for that
 
Heavy bombers - B-52, Tu-95, And the most recent B-1, B-2, and Tu-160 normally as Zachowon said, are cruise missile carriers. Only when the other side has no air defense at all, they can be used for the not glamorous but still very effective carpet-bombing job. You can add the smaller but still in that group, Tu-22M3x.
Carpet Bombing these days can be done with dumb bombs, PGMs, or even a combination of these with or without thermobaric ones.

Hint - you don't want to be on the received side of such missions.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Father_of_All_Bombs

Like these.
 
As things stand, I don't think the Russians are done yet. They still have a great deal more resources they can draw upon. From what I've seen, the general takeaway here is that Russia can't keep going because it isn't politically viable and Putin is only doing this because he's an asshole. However, what most analysts believe is that Russia views this issue as an existential threat. Therefore, there is every reason to believe that Russia is going to escalate the situation, using whatever sort of manpower and hardware they can bring to bear. From what I understand, that's a lot of crappy Soviet-era weapon systems and a lot of expendable Russian men. So far the expectation is that it won't be pretty, but Russia is still capable of overwhelming Ukraine.

It is existential threat - for KGB mafia which rule Russia.They could not copy China model and turn Russia into second China,becouse they are mafia,and must use old horde state model where they must take other people property,or fell.
So yes,they must take something,or their power woud be gone.

Problem is - to take Ukraine by army they need waves of consprict - which they do not have anymore - and lend-lease from USA,which they do not get.
So,they must use nukes,or all they get would be Marjunpol/in 2023/ and MAYBE Donbas.

Becouse semi - static warfare which use drones now favore ukrainians,not kgbstan.

Yes,they win - but after using nukes and/or C weapons.
 
It is existential threat - for KGB mafia which rule Russia.They could not copy China model and turn Russia into second China,becouse they are mafia,and must use old horde state model where they must take other people property,or fell.
So yes,they must take something,or their power woud be gone.

Problem is - to take Ukraine by army they need waves of consprict - which they do not have anymore - and lend-lease from USA,which they do not get.
So,they must use nukes,or all they get would be Marjunpol/in 2023/ and MAYBE Donbas.

Becouse semi - static warfare which use drones now favore ukrainians,not kgbstan.

Yes,they win - but after using nukes and/or C weapons.

Static warfare favours the side with the most and best artillery, which is Russia
 
T-90 is an upgrade of T-72, so false analogy.

Not false at all. Your logic was specifically that the Vulkan should be considered 1960s technology because it is a a "mere upgrade" of the Bazalt; by the exact same logic, the entire lineage of tanks descended from the T-34 should all be considered 1920s technology, because each and every one of them has been a "mere upgrade" from the previous one all the way down the line.

So the T90 is a "mere upgrade" of the T-72, which is a "mere upgrade" of the T-64, which is a "mere upgrade" of the T-55, and so on.

P-700, P-800, Kalibr and Zircon are what all current generations of Russian surface ships and submarines are getting, so yeah, sounds like Russia is giving up on the P-1000.

You clearly don't know what you're talking about, because the P-700 Granit is just as old as the P-500 Bazalt, substantially older and less sophisticated than the P-1000 Vulkan. The Bazalt and Granit are in fact sister designs that use essentially the same missile avionics; the difference is that the Granit has a ramjet engine as opposed to the Bazalt's turbojet engine, at the cost of being even huger.

Russia is "giving up" on the entire superheavy antiship missile family only in the sense that they can no longer afford to build warships big enough to accommodate them; there is no direct successor to the Kirov or Slava class, only lesser warships armed with medium-weight antiship missiles such as Moskit and Oniks. Moskit for example is literally only half the weight of Granit. But giving up Bazalt/Vulkan/Granit essentially means giving up the ability to credibly attack U.S. carrier battlegroups; the lesser missiles do not cut it against top tier opponents, which is the entire reason the Soviet fleet built its main combatant missile cruisers around the superheavy AShMs.
 
FQlCx-cXoAkmGR3.jpg


There she is, not so wounded as we were led to believe

still sunk but whatever killed her didn't inflict the sort of catastrophic damage an ammo cook off would likely yield
You don't need to cook off ammo to cause a ship to sink. All you need is to cause a Bravo or a Delta Fire onboard that they can't contain to do the job.
 
I just got done writing nine fucking pages about this sinking incident spelling out, in detail, the capabilities of the ship, the circumstances of the loss, and the consequences for the Russo-Ukrainian war and for the Russian Federation navy in general - only to have these goddamned images come out like twenty minutes before I post my documents up to docs and tumblr and hit up the forum to share 'em here, only to see images showing the Volna designator stowed in its aft position and the SA-N-4 launchers not even deployed, making half that analysis moot because the damned clowns apparently didn't even TRY to fire in their own defense.

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
Well when it comes to Russian Sailors this kind of fits.

 
I just got done writing nine fucking pages about this sinking incident spelling out, in detail, the capabilities of the ship, the circumstances of the loss, and the consequences for the Russo-Ukrainian war and for the Russian Federation navy in general - only to have these goddamned images come out like twenty minutes before I post my documents up to docs and tumblr and hit up the forum to share 'em here, only to see images showing the Volna designator stowed in its aft position and the SA-N-4 launchers not even deployed, making half that analysis moot because the damned clowns apparently didn't even TRY to fire in their own defense.

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

How were they to intercept sea skimming missiles... the only anti-ship missiles Ukraine possesses... without deploying their Osas?

I don't see any cope cages or slat armor located over the anti-ship missile launchers or anything. 🧐

Is that why they were training to throw axes in midair?
 

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