Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

Rice production is dominated by nations friendly to or neutral to Russia.
Almost true, but there are certain countries that ban the export of rice solely because of food security. It might be true that Japan does not export its rice to other markets because of this reason. And I don’t know if the Philippines actually exports its rice.
 
Erdogan has consistently pissed everyone off, not just the Russians.
And consistently his efforts have been undermined.
He has also turned Turkey's economy into a total mess.

And need I remind you that he has been aiding ISIS and trafficking in oil stolen from Syria?

Also, since when did Assad murder children?

Erdogan pursued Turkish Interests first. Like he should, and you are confusing money with currency, like Russia, the average Turk sees no difference in their lives and its luxury products the elites buy that are inflating. That and they saw their standards of living substantially increase under Erdogan.

Turkey never aided ISIS, it backed the FSA while simultaneously dealing with an Islamist Parallel State that nearly seized the country in a military coup plus dealt with the PKK who broke the ceasefire agreements. They also have been systematically assassinating the Nusra leadership, getting others to do the dirty work and making sure they take the brunt of Syrian/Iranian/Russian Assaults while also trying to lure non-radicals out of their ranks into the FSA.

Also Assad started the Civil War
and used indiscriminate tactics on people who wanted reform and basic rights after 4 boys were tortured over a joke.

But hey we live is a post fact world.



DPR on the advance again.



Hate to be the Radar Operators on duty when this occurred. Or the Officers in charge that night.



Looks like a Spetnaz Team or a DPR/LPR team.



If so, the the picture of the Air Space is changing.



Ukraine is falling. The math is against them, and their 'victories,' are getting closer to areas they can't lose.
 
Erdogan pursued Turkish Interests first. Like he should, and you are confusing money with currency, like Russia, the average Turk sees no difference in their lives and its luxury products the elites buy that are inflating. That and they saw their standards of living substantially increase under Erdogan.

Turkey never aided ISIS, it backed the FSA while simultaneously dealing with an Islamist Parallel State that nearly seized the country in a military coup plus dealt with the PKK who broke the ceasefire agreements. They also have been systematically assassinating the Nusra leadership, getting others to do the dirty work and making sure they take the brunt of Syrian/Iranian/Russian Assaults while also trying to lure non-radicals out of their ranks into the FSA.
Also Assad started the Civil War and used indiscriminate tactics on people who wanted reform and basic rights after 4 boys were tortured over a joke.

But hey we live is a post fact world.
Russia can pull something akin to autharky, Turkey can not.

Russia stabilized its currency and kept inflation in check just a few days ago by hiking up interest rates, ordering mandatory conversions of foreign currency to rubles and banning exports.
Turkey hasn't.
Erdogan kept interest rates at zero, even intimidated his financial ministry people and bankers.
Russia together with Belarus accounts for a massive amount of fertilizer and energy production.
Turkey is a net importer of all that stuff.

His little pan-Turkic stunts have pissed off a large swath of Asia, he has interfered with both Western and Russian plans in numerous places.
No one sees him as a reliable ally.
Also you are very eager to follow western sources when they fit the narrative of your preferred group, komshu.
 
Dude you can't be reached. So I won't even try any more. Keep shilling for Putin. But don't be surprised when all the things you are advocating paint you and your side in a very bad light. And you will not be able to back tract from any of it. Enjoy digging your own hole. History will not be kind to your side.

“Kiss the western globalist ass, otherwise you’re Pro-Putin!”

Truly, this is the height of intellectual debate. Economic reality cares nothing for how you feel about certain issues, and it certainly doesn’t care about morality.

The facts of the matter are this. Due to the strict sanction regime that was placed upon it, Russia was forced to develop a certain amount of self-sufficiency that most western powers are incapable of.

This economic reorganization was and is helped and propped up by the Chinese, who see an ally against their globalist western enemies. The Chinese will never be sanctioned, within the next ten years anyways, hard enough to make them stop.

The Western European powers, and the US to a lesser extent when Biden took office, by contrast hamstrung their own energy industries forcing themselves to become ever more reliant on Russian natural gas, and therefore whatever mercy Putin has in his black heart, due to the demands of their various, insane green/liberal parties.

We are also outright alienating potential allies like India and Brazil by contemplating sanctions against them for not kowtowing to the western line. Brazil may be made to come into line, but this can only end poorly against a country as proud as India.

It will not be a fun time for Russians. But as long as they have China in their corner, the economic issues caused by the current sanction regime is survivable. The mainland Euros are in for a cold winter and potential economic recession at the very least.

This is the kind of shit that sees revolutions happen. And as gas prices continue to soar, food continues to get more expensive, and western governments get more authoritarian in an attempt to collar an increasingly restive and angry populace, I have a hard time seeing this ending in anything other than disaster.
 





Chinese are limiting the recon assets of Ukraine by using killswitches in the drones that got sold to Ukraine. This is another reason why no one should trust China.

Edit: Russian column captured intact, ammo and all:


Edit 2:


Edit 3:

I just had a good look at the single piece of the alleged "Russian" supply convoy.

There were several points I found interesting.

One guy in military uniform. However, the armband he was wearing appeared white, not yellow or blue.

Another thing is the white writing on the 2nd truck from us on the right seems to be written over the yellow paint.

And the account in question is clearly pro-Ukrainian.

I have reason to believe this is actually a regular Ukrainian convoy.
 
Except Ukraine can loose everything since Russia is incapable of holding their gains against the resulting insurgency.

Comrade, anyone not accepting Putin's silver gets his lead. He has zero fucks to give and will gladly deport people to Siberia. There is a reason all Ukrainian Independence movements prior to Gorbachev failed. The Soviets and Russian Empire before it engaged in wholesale slaughter to cow them into submission. Putin will do the same and the average Ukrainian will suddenly start becoming pro-Russian to avoid death.
 
Comrade, anyone not accepting Putin's silver gets his lead. He has zero fucks to give and will gladly deport people to Siberia. There is a reason all Ukrainian Independence movements prior to Gorbachev failed. The Soviets and Russian Empire before it engaged in wholesale slaughter to cow them into submission. Putin will do the same and the average Ukrainian will suddenly start becoming pro-Russian to avoid death.
Except he doesn't have the troops to do that.

Hell, he didn't have the troops to do that before Russia lost 10% of it's military in Ukraine.
 
If Russia had the troops and was competent there would only be an insurgency no more conventional fightinf
 
If Russia had the troops and was competent there would only be an insurgency no more conventional fightinf
No, not really. You do realize it took the US longer to capture Baghdad, much less conquer all of Iraq, than Russia has yet spent in Ukraine?

The same US that had massive superiority to the Russian military in every category, was attacking a nation that had been sanctioned to hell and gone for more than a decade, and that wasn't facing an enemy that was receiving top of the line military equipment from third parties for the entire time.

The only way the war in Ukraine would have been over in a few days was if the Ukrainians just decided not to fight.

As for the broader question of competency, the Russian forces in Ukraine are overwhelmingly the least well trained, least well equipped, most disposable, part of the Russian military. Virtually all of the Russian first line military equipment and truly professional military units have been steadfastly kept out of Ukraine. Oh, and lets not forget that those Russian forces in Ukraine are still operating without substantial air or artillery support.

And despite all of that, Russia is still winning at the moment.

You also need to account for the tiny issue of information sourcing and propaganda. Virtually everything calling Russian competency into question is provided courtesy of the Ukrainian government, who have a vested interest in making Russia look worse and themselves look better. A government that has provable and flagrantly lied about both their own and Russian actions in Ukraine since this was started.

The actual facts on the ground of the war are something that are not public information, regardless of what everyone in the media seems to think.

The propaganda makes anything but the broadest of generalities kinda pointless as anything more specific is inevitably based on information sources that are 1) unreliable and 2) impossible to determine the veracity of.
 
If Russia had the troops and was competent there would only be an insurgency no more conventional fightinf

If this was an American operation with 100-200k troops, and military operations started on the 24th, how much progress would the US army have made by this point?
 
If this was an American operation with 100-200k troops, and military operations started on the 24th, how much progress would the US army have made by this point?
A lot more to be fair. The US is orders of magnitude better in every respect than Russia when it comes to air power, battlefield intelligence gathering, coordinating units, logistics, and well basically everything else involved in this kind of war.

The thing is, any military comparison (at scale) to the US by ANY other nation or group of nations in the world falls flat and is disingenuous. When it comes to large scale military operations, the US isn't just the varsity or first among equals; it is at least three generations ahead of ANYONE else.

As an American we take for granted things like real time satellite surveillance and a real time, encrypted, communications backbone that is able to handle the volume of traffic a battle space generates. We don't really think about what kind of game changer our Air Force is compared to everyone else. We don't really think about what putting encrypted radios in the hands of EVERY soldier along with night vision really means. We don't think about what having every soldier be a professional with a million dollars plus worth of training really means.

The US military is the best trained, best equipped, best lead, highest morale, most battle hardened, best supported, military that humanity has EVER seen.

Even comparing NATO nations (besides the US) to Russia is iffy because those NATO nations get access to US backend support. They use US communications networks, US surveillance assets, US tankers, US logistics support, US cross training, etc. We saw what happened in Libya when Europe tried to do war without US assistance.
 
Reminder 1f & 3f - Stop calling for people's deaths and other violence, I don't care if they're bad people. We've told you before. This will escalate quickly
If Russia had the troops and was competent there would only be an insurgency no more conventional fightinf
If USA had brains and was competent, Osama Bin Laden wouldn't be the world's hide and seek champion. (2001-2011)

And Iraq wouldn't have been invaded.

Neither would Syria.

Nor Libya.

However, I understand that it's part of your job to shill for the US Military. But please, at least do it intelligently. Not all of us are kool-aid drinkers or RINOs here.

If this was an American operation with 100-200k troops, and military operations started on the 24th, how much progress would the US army have made by this point?
So basically, the forces used against Iraq in 2003? I am also assuming that Ukraine is pro-Russia ITTL.

Kiev, Kharhiv and other major cities would be bombed flat, first of all.

US warships would be colliding with each other in the Black Sea. A US sub would have scraped an underwater mountain.

Whole country would be looted and messed up.

UPA style insurgency would rise up against the Americans.

By today, US forces would be fighting it out with Ukrainian forces being supplied by the Russians. Situation would be much worse due to heavier resistance.

20 years later, a US backed puppet government will be overthrown even before the last US troops leave the country, in a hasty and panicked retreat ordered by a retarded Commiecrat of a President.

No, not really. You do realize it took the US longer to capture Baghdad, much less conquer all of Iraq, than Russia has yet spent in Ukraine?

The same US that had massive superiority to the Russian military in every category, was attacking a nation that had been sanctioned to hell and gone for more than a decade, and that wasn't facing an enemy that was receiving top of the line military equipment from third parties for the entire time.
The Russian are actually doing quite well, all things considered.

But it's the DPR and LPR forces that really impressed me.

Those guys (and gals?) are hardcore, many of them experienced vets from the 2014 conflict.

The only way the war in Ukraine would have been over in a few days was if the Ukrainians just decided not to fight.

As for the broader question of competency, the Russian forces in Ukraine are overwhelmingly the least well trained, least well equipped, most disposable, part of the Russian military. Virtually all of the Russian first line military equipment and truly professional military units have been steadfastly kept out of Ukraine. Oh, and lets not forget that those Russian forces in Ukraine are still operating without substantial air or artillery support.

And despite all of that, Russia is still winning at the moment.
Where is Russia's good stuff though . . .

Stuff like the T-14, more advanced T-90s, Arena APS, MiG 31Ks, etc.

That's the question.

You also need to account for the tiny issue of information sourcing and propaganda. Virtually everything calling Russian competency into question is provided courtesy of the Ukrainian government, who have a vested interest in making Russia look worse and themselves look better. A government that has provable and flagrantly lied about both their own and Russian actions in Ukraine since this was started.

The actual facts on the ground of the war are something that are not public information, regardless of what everyone in the media seems to think.

The propaganda makes anything but the broadest of generalities kinda pointless as anything more specific is inevitably based on information sources that are 1) unreliable and 2) impossible to determine the veracity of.
Ukrop-fascists who have been murdering civilians in the Donbass since 2014.

May the Ukrop-fascists get their rightful due of lead. Or just TOS a few at them. RPO-A "Shmel" rockets are also handy.
 
That's plain wrong.
Not really. Most of the military equipment Russia has deployed is at least a generation behind their current best active service equipment. Most of the soldiers Russia has sent are conscript and contract forces. Most of the Russia Air Force is being kept out of the fight. Russian artillery relative to the size of the deployed force is anemic.
 

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